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Monday, July 8, 2013

The Bakken Oil Patch: There Are Still More Places Where Nothing Is Than Something Is -- And That's Likely To Remain True "Forever"

Somehow I missed this great article from The Bismarck Tribune:
If, for example, you are a Wall Street Journal reporter or someone from the BBC, and you fly out from New York or London to Denver and then on a tiny plane to Williston "to make sense of the oil boom," you are going to see a city bursting with energy, enterprise, dust, chaos, congestion, noise, construction and growing pains that make it not a very attractive destination.
But Williston is not the oil boom and the oil boom is not Williston. Williston is one of the choke points of the oil boom.
Wow, that is well said.

I won't post more than that, but I surely hope this article is not archived by the Tribune. This article should remain easily accessible for decades.

Regarding That Runaway Crude Oil Freight Train....

Updates

July 11, 2013: This disaster could give President O'Bama "top cover" if he decides to approve the Keystone XL. [His decision will be seen as arbitrary and capricious regardless which way he decides.]

July 11, 2013: The WSJ says criminal probe underway. Railroad owner says it is likely engineer didn't set brakes correctly. 

July 10, 2013: Rigzone has a long article on this story.

July 9, 2013: the "runaway freight train" did not frighten off investors. UNP is up almost $4.00 today. Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you thought you might have read here.

July 9, 2013: The WSJ is reporting:
The operator of the runaway train that derailed and exploded in Lac-Mégantic, Quebec, this weekend recorded an accident rate far higher than the U.S. average over the past 10 years, federal data show.
A train operated by Montreal Maine & Atlantic Railway Inc., a subsidiary of U.S. train operator Rail World Inc., is at the center of a Canadian probe after the train was left unmanned at a crew rest stop and slammed into the small town early Saturday, triggering a deadly explosion and fire.
Rail World is controlled by a Chicago-area railroad veteran, Edward Burkhardt, who has put together an empire of small railroads around the world. Mr. Burkhardt, Rail World's chairman and chief executive, has spent a lifetime in the industry, earning the respect of many fellow rail executives.
But the 74-year-old Yale graduate has also faced criticism for a bitter battle with one of his boards and for championing the controversial use of remote-controlled trains in rail yards and one-person crews. The deadly Quebec derailment has put MM&A's safety record under a microscope.
The Transportation Safety Board of Canada, the country's main investigator of rail accidents, doesn't publicly post safety records of individual operators, but does make that data available upon request. MM&A didn't turn up in a basic record search of Canadian accidents. A spokesman for the safety board said late Monday that a fuller record wasn't immediately available.

July 10, 2013: the train may have been tampered with. CNN is reporting:
The chairman of the company whose driverless train barreled into the small Quebec town of Lac-Megantic and unleashed a deadly inferno told a Montreal newspaper he believes it had been tampered with.
"We have evidence of this," Ed Burkhardt said in an interview published by the Montreal Gazette. "But this is an item that needs further investigation. We need to talk to some people we believe to have knowledge of this."
Original Post  

From Platts:
Analysts also pointed to the dearth of hard facts about the incident, including the question of how a cargo of crude, which is not particularly flammable, was ignited.
I've wondered the same; great question. Weren't just four (4) tank cars of the 73 tank cars involved? I can't remember; seems I read something along that line.  -- yes, here it is, in the original post.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Tuesday; OXY USA With A Huge Well; Halcon WIth A Nice Well; 3/6 To DRL Status

  • 22677, 1,191, OXY USA, Dennis Kadrmas 2-9-4H-143-96, Fayette, t1/13; cum 59K 5/13;
  • 23258, 1,681, HRC Operating, Fort Berthold 147-94-3A-10-2H, McGregory Buttes, t3/13; cum 43K 5/13;
  • 24004, 715, Hess, EN-Cvancara 155-93-1522H-2, Alger, t4/14; cum 29K 5/13;
  • 24350, drl, CLR, Hawkinson 12-22H3, Oakdale, no data,
  • 24390, drl, Hess, EN-Uran A 154-93-1522H-4, Robinson Lake, no data,
  • 24698, WI, Enduro, MRPSU 19-33, Mouse River Park, Madison, no data

****************************

22677, see above, OXY USA, Dennis Kadrmas 2-9-4H-143-96, Fayette:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-201357771918
4-201326536
3-2013111400
2-2013146800
1-2013242700

23258, see above, HRC Operating, Fort Berthold 147-94-3A-10-2H, McGregory Buttes:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2013140733
4-2013207020
3-201381030

24004, see above, Hess, EN-Cvancara 155-93-1522H-2, Alger:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20131225711870
4-20131670318603

And Another Earnings Season Has Started....

WD-40 popped $8, from $58 to $66 in after-hours trading after 3Q13 earnings were released/discussed: net income rose 12 percent in the fiscal third quarter on greater sales of multipurpose items like its namesake WD-40 spray lubricant.

Magnum Hunter is scheduled to report tomorrow, before the market opens. Analysts expect a loss of 11 cents/share. [Update: MHR blows past analysts' consensus: earns 5 cents vs an expected 11-cent loss.]

Source For News For American Adults

More than half of Americans still get their news primarily from television (print, radio, and internet are way behind).

Although I don't think it's statistically significant, FOX is beating CNN for news: 8% to 7%. Lousy, lousy numbers one might say.  But FOX and CNN at 8% and 7% are almost ten times the number of folks who say they get their news from ABC (1%), and NBC (1%).

Twenty-six percent (26%) of Americans did not mention a specific news source on television. CNBC was mentioned by less than 1%. MSNBC was also at 1%, ABC. Those garnering 1% were listed in this order: ABC, MSNBC, Univision, NBC, BBC, PBS.

But this was most, most interesting: CBS was almost at the very bottom of the list, not even hitting 1%; CBS was below CNBC. Incredible.

*************************

Speaking of "news," I can't wait to see what the O'Bama administration ends up calling the "coup" in Egypt

My hunch is: it won't matter. Monarchs simply pick and choose the "laws" they like.

Nine (9) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; Baytex Reports Four Nice Wells

Active rigs: 186 (trending down)

Nine (9) new permits --
  • Operators: Whiting (4), Emerald (2), Hess (2), Fidelity 
  • Fields: Stanley (Mountrail), Sanish (Mountrail), Boxcar Butte (McKenzie), Alkali Creek (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Four (4) producing wells completed:
  • 24280, 243, Baytex, Pulvermacher 33-28-162-99H, Ambrose, t5/13; cum 5K 5/13;
  • 24353, 224, Baytex, Ebreck 4-9-161-97H, Frazier, t5/13; cum 10K 5/13;
  • 24999, 535, J. Olson 22-15-162-98H, Blooming Prairies, t5/13; cum 9K 5/13;
  • 24690, 602, J. Olson 27-34-162-98H, Whiteaker, t5/13; cum 6K 5/13;

Random Look At the 3rd Group of 100 Wells Early In The Bakken Boom -- 3rd In A Series

See first posting in this series.
Second posting in this series.

Of the 100 wells
  • Dakota: 1 (dry)
  • Devonian: 1
  • Fort Union: 4 (all dry)
  • Madison: 15
  • Midale: 1
  • Red River: 10
  • Spearfish:3
  • Winnipegosis: 3
  • Bakken: 62
One Bakken well was inactive; one is temporarily abandoned.

The table below:
  • The fourth column: bbls of oil in thousands, cumulative
  • The fifth column: month/year drilled (tested)

16601 madison 20 2/8
16602
121 10/7
16603
182 8/7
16604 spearfish PNC

16605
64 7/7
16606
PNC

16607 madison 90 9/7
16608
23 3/8
16609
24 12/7
16610
281 9/7
16611
134 10/7
16612
89 6/8
16613
85 12/7
16614
PNC

16615
PNC

16616 madison


16617
23 10/7
16618
PNC

16619
PNC

16620
103 8/7
16621
103 10/7
16622 madison PNC

16623
27 9/7
16624 duperow 29 9/7
16625
PNC

16626
145 9/7
16627 madison 6 8/7
16628
280 6/9
16629 red river 13 6/8
16630 red river 155 7/7
16631 madison dry 5/7
16632
PNC

16633
PNC

16634
106 10/7
16635
218 8/7
16636 red river PNC

16637
350 10/7
16638 madison 249 9/7
16639
351 3/8
16640
96 10/7
16641 red river 52 8/7
16642 red river 51 10/7
16643 madison 2 4/8 PA
16644 spearfish 40 8/7
16645 madison 4 8/7
16646
130 7/7
16647
116 10/7
16648
243 8/7
16649 dakota dry 1/9
16650 midale/nesson 131 8/7
16651 madison 8 9/7
16652
150 9/7
16653 madison 71 10/7
16654
136 8/7
16655 devonian 12 10/7
16656
411 10/7
16657 fort union 0 9/11 INA
16658 fort union dry 9/11
16659 fort union dry 9/11
16660 fort union  dry 9/11
16661 fort union  dry 9/11
16662
PNC

16663
47 12/7
16664
230 12/7
16665
PNC 11/8
16666
163 11/8
16667
337 4/8
16668 madison dry 7/7
16669 winnipegosis PNC

16670
74 11/7
16671
396 10/7
16672
94 5/9
16673
PNC

16674
30 4/8
16675 madison exp

16676
183 11/7
16677
15 12/7 TA
16678
98 9/7
16679 winipegosis 143 4/16
16680 red river dry 10/7
16681 red river 21 12/7
16682
67 10/8
16683
48 12/7
16684
400 3/8
16685
170 2/8
16686
96 12/8
16687
166 11/8
16688 spearfish 15 10/7
16689
78 6/8 IA
16690
PNC

16691 red river 294 9/7
16692 winnepoegosis 35 9/7 IA
16693
45 8/8
16694
143 12/7
16695
239 11/7
16696 madison 11 2/9 IA
16697 madison 6 10/7
16698
186 12/7
16699 red river 296 11/7
16700 red river 232 1/8


I did this little exercise because some folks have said the Bakken wells have such a bad decline rate, they will start shutting some of them down after five years. Many of the 46 Bakken wells above appear not to be economic, but as long as they are producing, they hold the lease by production.

In addition, a lot of those commentators were way ahead of their headlights. Early in the boom, "they" were drilling everywhere to see what they had: they were defining the boundaries of the middle Bakken. "We" didn't even know about the Three Forks which might turn out to be even better than the Bakken. Also, operators were still trying to crack the geology of the Bakken. And, it goes without saying that completion/fracking techniques were evolving. Costs were high, and getting higher. Now, with pad drilling and for other reasons, costs are coming down.

Many of the initial Bakken wells were short laterals, and they were all fracked with very, very few stages. Many had a single frack.  

In the game of basketball, there are players whose stats (points, rebounds, etc) are very, very poor, but they play an important role on the team for other reasons.

The most interesting thing in this little exercise: how great some of the Red River wells were.

Disclaimer: I went through the data base fairly quickly, and it is very likely there are errors. But the errors are unlikely to change the general results.

Random Look At the 2nd Group of 100 Wells Early In The Bakken Boom -- 2nd In A Series

See first posting in this series.

This is the second group of 100 wells, permit numbers 16501 - 16600.

The current Bakken boom in North Dakota began in 2007.

Of the 100 wells
  • Birdbear:2
  • Greenhorn: 2 (all PNC)
  • Madison: 26
  • Midale: 1
  • Pierre: 5
  • Red River: 14
  • Spearfish: 1
  • Tyler: 2
  • Winnipegosis: 1
  • Bakken: 46
One Bakken well one was inactive; all the rest are still active.

The table below:
  • The fourth column: bbls of oil in thousands, cumulative (updated Bakken wells, 10/14)
  • The fifth column: month/year drilled (tested)

16501 madison 70 3/8
16502 madison 259 8/7
16503 greenhorn PNC

16504 greenhorn PNC

16505 madison dry 1/7
16506 madison 0.9 6/7
16507 madison 106 3/7
16508 red river 72 6/7
16509
127 6/7
16510 286 4/7
16511 pierre 0 8/7
16512 pierre 0 8/7
16513 pierre 0 8/7
16514 pierre 0 8/7
16515 pierre 0 8/7
16516 red river 69 4/7
16517 red river 104 6/7
16518 red river dry 4/7
16519 madison 24 4/7
16520 madison exp

16521
47 5/7  -- OXY
16522  madison 34 6/7
16523 red river 2 10/7
16524 madison PNC

16525 tyler PNC

16526 tyler 0.3 3/7 TA
16527 red river 168 7/7
16528 red river 187 7/7
16529 red river 328 8/7
16530 madison PNC

16531
192 6/7
16532
450 7/7
16533 red river 293 6/7
16534
345 5/8
16535 madison dry 3/7
16536 madison PNC

16537
144 9/7
16538
14 7/7
16539 red river PNC

16540 madison exp

16541
96 9/9
16542 red river  326 6/7
16543
419 7/7
16544
244 5/7
16545
13 8/7
16546 madison exp

16547
PNC

16548
131 6/7
16549
96 5/7
16550
381 9/7
16551
41 7/10
16552
PA 8/7  -- Hess
16553 madison PNC

16554 madison  PNC

16555 madison PNC

16556 madison dry 3/7
16557
PNC

16558 birdbear 5 10/8
16559
175 8/7
16560
47 8/7
16561
180 7/7
16562
109 9/7
16563
PNC

16564 madison 0.2 4/7
16565
69 8/7
16566
18 11/8
16567
52 9/7
16568
41 9/7
16569 madison 88 6/7
16570 madison 16 7/7
16571
195 11/7
16572
121 10/7
16573
91 7/7
16574 spearfish exp

16575
53 8/7
16576 red river dry 5/7
16577
512 1/8
16578
445 9/7
16579
140 7/7
16580 winnipegosis 42 7/7
16581 red river 41 10/8
16582
110 10/7
16583
336 4/8
16584
PNC

16585
PNC

16586
113 7/9
16587
102 7/10
16588 madison 40 7/7
16589 madison PNC

16590 madison 100 7/7
16591 birdbear 86 12/7
16592 madison 16 8/7 IA
16593 madison dry 6/7
16594
PNC

16595
PNC

16596
PNC

16597 red river  185 8/7
16598 red river 295 10/7
16599 midale/nesson 48 7/7
16600
36 7/7

I did this little exercise because some folks have said the Bakken wells have such a bad decline rate, they will start shutting some of them down after five years. Many of the 46 Bakken wells above appear not to be economic, but as long as they are producing, they hold the lease by production.

In addition, a lot of those commentators were way ahead of their headlights. Early in the boom, "they" were drilling everywhere to see what they had: they were defining the boundaries of the middle Bakken. "We" didn't even know about the Three Forks which might turn out to be even better than the Bakken. Also, operators were still trying to crack the geology of the Bakken. And, it goes without saying that completion/fracking techniques were evolving. Costs were high, and getting higher. Now, with pad drilling and for other reasons, costs are coming down. 

In the game of basketball, there are players whose stats (points, rebounds, etc) are very, very poor, but they play an important role on the team for other reasons.

The most interesting thing in this little exercise: how great some of the Red River wells were.

Disclaimer: I went through the data base fairly quickly, and it is very likely there are errors. But the errors are unlikely to change the general results.

Watford City School Population To Double

Updates

August 19, 2015: The McKenzie County Farmer provides an update for the Watford City school enrollment this year.
While classes won’t officially open for McKenzie County Public School District No. 1 until Thursday, Aug. 20, the preliminary enrollment numbers are indicating that Watford City schools will see yet another year of record enrollment.

As of August 14, McKenzie County Public School District No. 1 had an enrollment of 1,396 students, which is 171 students more than the district had one year ago at this time.

The official day for student count is September 10.

Last year the district had 1,301 students enrolled .... reasonably confident that the district will have over 1,400 students on September 10 of this year.
Much, much more at the link. 

Original Post
The city nearest the sweetest spot in the Bakken -- Watford City -- will see school enrollment double. The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:
The future will be here in no time and Watford City school officials got a startling look at how quick and how big it will be.
The school hired a consultant to help map that future, and the data that came in recently is nothing short of mindboggling: In three more school years, the current enrollment is expected to double to 1,600.
I posted this elsewhere but wanted to post the story as a stand-alone post. Years ago when the Bakken boom began there were many, many stories about lots of men coming up "here" to work but they wouldn't bring their families.

At the time, I did a long post on that phenomenon. I noted that in the military wives and families followed their husbands no matter where they were assigned. The military has some sites in countries like South Korea where families are "not allowed" to go. In fact, even when their husbands are assigned to these one-year assignments, families find a way to get there, ignoring the US government's "restrictions" -- at great personal risk, great expense, and great hardship. But yet they follow their husbands. (Yes, I know the service is now as much about active duty women as active duty men, but during my time in the military, I noted the phenomenon as noted.)

I posted that the same thing would happen in the oil patch. That's why the debate over man-camps vs permanent housing was so important. I won't rehash that debate. It is now what it is.

Now we will hear that these families will leave as soon as they can after they experience one North Dakota winter. Nope. I was assigned to Grand Forks AFB in the early 80's. Assignments were generally three years, but there was an overwhelming number of folks who requested 5-year controlled tours so they could see their children through five years of North Dakota elementary, middle school, and/or high school education. A lot of those families ended up staying in Grand Forks or Fargo.

Sandrocks Oil Field: Put On The Map With A Murex Gusher

Permits

2014 (the list is complete)
29953, Murex,
29952, Murex,
29951, Murex,
29950, Murex,
29930,  Hess,
29527, Hess,
28543, 1,107, Hess, BW-Arnegard State-151-100-3625H-6, Sandrocks, t5/15; cum 55K 6/15;
27733, 770, Newfield, Fleck 150-100-12-1-2H, Sandrocks, t8/14; cum 84K 6/15;
27732, 854, Newfield, Fleck 150-100-12-1-3H, Sandrocks, t8/14; cum 77K 6/15;
27731, 1,415, Newfield, Fleck 150-100-12-1-4H, Sandrocks, t8/14; cum 84K 6/15;

2013 (the list is complete)
26712, 756, Hess, BW-Arnegard State-151-100-3625H-2, Sandrocks, t7/14; cum 73K 6/15;
26711, 1,085, Hess, BW-Arnegard State-151-100-3625H-3, Sandrocks, t7/14; cum 107K 6/15;
26710, 1,106, Hess, BW-Arnegard State-151-100-3625H-4, Sandrocks, t7/14; cum 103K 6/15;
26709, 1,072, Hess, BW-Arnegard State-151-100-3625H-5, Sandrocks, t8/14; cum 110K 6/15;
26321, 580, Triangle Petroleum, Sanders 150-100-9-10-2H, Sandrocks, t5/14; cum 113K 6/15;
26075, 476, Triangle Petroleum, Sanders 150-100-9-10-1H, Sandrocks, t5/14; cum 107K 6/15; gas levels as high as 4,500 units; replaces #25456 below;
25994, 1,016, Newfield, Barracuda 150-100-111-2-3HR, t10/13; cum 99K 6/15;
25777, 2,857, Statoil, Lloyd 34-3 3H, Sandrocks, t7/14; cum 88K 6/15;
25457, 1,320, Newfield, Barracuda 150-100-11-2-4H, Sandrocks, t9/13; cum 88K 6/15;
25456, dry, Newfield, Barracuda 150-100-11-2-3H, looks like they had problems with drillign from the start; d/c'd ops about 3,030 feet; replaced by #25994 above;
25455, 1,061, Newfield, Barracuda 150-100-11-2-2H, t9/13; cum 104K 6/15;

2012 (the list is complete)
24257, 4,125, Murex, Albert Skari 35-26H,  Sandrocks middle Bakken, t2/13; cum 207K 6/15; 37 stages; 4.3 million lbs proppant;
23862, 2,633, Statoil, Hovde 33-4 3H, Sandrocks, t7/14; cum 93K 6/15;
23861, 3,340 Statoil, Hovde 33-4 4H, Sandrocks, t7/14; cum 98K 6/15;
23860, 3,358, Statoil, Hovde 33-4 2H, Sandrocks, t12/13; cum 151K 6/15;
23559, PNC, Zenergy, Sanders 9-10H, Sandrocks,

2011
21033, 3,473, Statoil, Lloyd 34-3 2H, Sandrocks, t3/12; cum 202K 6/15;

2010 
20199, 1,318, Murex, Bradley Mark 35-26H, Sandrocks, t12/11; cum 194K 6/15;
20155, 2,185, Newfield, Barracuda 150-100-2-11-1H, Sandrocks, t5/11; cum 204K 6/15;


Original Post

Murex just put the Sandrocks oil field on the map with this well:
  • 24257, 4,125, Murex, Albert Skari 35-26H,  Sandrocks middle Bakken, t2/13; cum 207K 6/15; 37 stages; 4.3 million lbs proppant;
A huge well.

Sandrocks is a non-descript 14-section oil field just north of Arnegard, west of Watford City. This is west of the sweet spots in northeast McKenzie County.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2013301091511174410610004100040
BAKKEN4-2013261362613470504923655236550
BAKKEN3-20132420950206527830769076900
BAKKEN2-20132729323288622271715970159700

Monday Morning Links, News, And Views

Active rigs: 187

Wells coming off the confidential list have been posted Murex has a gusher.

RBN Energy: great article on WTI-Brent spread.

Crawling out from under the Geico rock?
While in the search for a promising, profitable, small energy company, I discovered Northern Oil and Gas. The company is an $873 million small-cap producer of crude oil and natural gas in North Dakota and Montana. It is one of America's fastest growing oil and gas energy companies. Northern holds interests in the Bakken and Three Forks formations in the Williston Basin. The company is fundamentally undervalued with the potential for significant stock gains.
The city nearest the sweetest spot in the Bakken -- Watford City -- will see school enrollment double. The Bismarck Tribune is reporting:
The future will be here in no time and Watford City school officials got a startling look at how quick and how big it will be.
The school hired a consultant to help map that future, and the data that came in recently is nothing short of mindboggling: In three more school years, the current enrollment is expected to double to 1,600.
WSJ Links

I generally don't read The Journal Report, Section R on Mondays, but this might be a nice one to keep: how states tax IRA withdrawals. Actually, lots of good news.

Not much in Section C, Money & Investing today. Ditto, Marketplace. Nothing.

The Front Section goes with the San Francisco plane crash as the lead story: this was a "practice flight" for the command pilot. He was "upgrading" to a new aircraft; had less than 50 hours in this aircraft; and this was his first flight into SFO.

But, finally, we get the crude oil unit train that destroyed a Canadian town story as the second story in the on-line edition
The deadly weekend explosion of a runaway crude-carrying train in Quebec threatens to ratchet up scrutiny of rising crude-by-rail shipments on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border, amid a boom in North American oil production.
In both countries, shipments of crude by rail have shot up sharply, as producers race to get all their new oil to market and as pipeline companies scramble to build new lines or reconfigure old ones to handle the growing volumes. Meanwhile, uncertainty over several big pipeline projects—including approval delays for TransCanada Corp.'s Keystone XL, which would connect Western Canada's booming oil sands development to the Gulf Coast—have sent some oil companies looking to rail as a longer-term solution.
That accident was the fifth derailment of a CP train in three months. The city's mayor publicly questioned whether the company, which is responsible for its own track and bridge inspections, put profits ahead of safety. CP officials denied cutting corners on inspections and said the derailments aren't connected to any underlying trend.
But the accident early Saturday is on a whole different scale. The train's operator, Montreal Maine & Atlantic Railway Inc., a unit of privately held U.S. railroad operator Rail World Inc., said the runaway train was loaded with 72 carloads of crude bound from North Dakota to a refinery in New Brunswick. 
Two additional stories on this mishap in the WSJ: Canadians probe the disaster; and, A night out turns inot a nightmare: 5 dead, 40 missing.

This is an important story: Saudi Arabia has gained the upper hand amid Islamist setbacks.
Saudi Arabia has gained the upper hand in a series of new power struggles in the region, strengthening the kingdom against the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist political movements emboldened since the Arab Spring revolutions.
Just as swiftly as popular uprisings have brought to power the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic political blocs in several Middle East and North African countries since 2011, "what happened in Egypt...could be the beginning of the end of political Islam in the region," Khalid al-Dakhail, an assistant professor of political sociology at King Saud University in Riyadh, predicted Sunday.
Op-Ed: another O'BamaCare tax that is dangerous to your health. This is another piece of the Train Wreck that will be repealed.