Off The Net; See You In The AM

Global Warming Force Majeure

Reuters is reporting a weather-related force majeure.

Brazil's Vale SA , the world's No. 2 mining company, declared force majeure on coal shipments from Mozambique after heavy rain hampered transport of the mineral.

And so it goes. 

Random Note on ObamaCare

A Financial Times article on ObamaCare as it starts to hit businesses. They started complaining too late. Cue up Connie Francis.

The interesting thing: the writer of this story does not "get it." The employer does not determine the number of "full-time" employees; the IRS determines the number of "full-time" employees by dividing total number of employee-hours worked, divided by 120 (as in 120 hours/month).

So, if one has 100 "part-time" employees, each working 20 hours/week (well below the 30-hour threshold), the employer may think he/she has 100 "part-time" employees for which health insurance coverage is not required.

In fact, 100 x 20 = 2000 hours x 4 weeks = 8,000. Divide by 120 = 67 "full-time" employees for which the company is required to provide health coverage, at $2,000/full-time, or in this case, $2,000 x 67. Very, very clever, how the law was written.

This random note is archived at ObamaCare. 

Wells Coming Off the Confidential List Over the Weekend, Holiday Monday, Tuesday

The wells coming off the confidential list since Friday have been posted.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

• 23086, 894, CLR, Norfolk 2-1H, North Tobacco Garden, t12/12; cum 19K 12/12;
• 23347, drl, CLR, Fenster 3-11H, Hamlet, no production data
• 23403, drl, XTO, FBIR Smith 11X-10A, Heart Butte,

Monday, February 18, 2013

• 21022, 573, Sequel, Louie 24-24H-2536-16095-MB, North Tioga, t11/12; cum 23K 12/12;
• 22947, 1,648, Whiting, Norgard 41-14H, Ellsworth, t8/12; cum 44K 12/12;
• 23509, 770, Samson Resources, Nomad 0607-2TFH, West Ambrose, t12/12; cum --

Sunday, February 17, 2013

• 21151, 446, CLR, Mack 5-2H, Antelope, t11/12; cum 26K 12/12;
• 22519, 10 (no typo), OXY USA, Ward Lake 1-5-6H-160-91, Dimond,  an extension of the Dimond field; Three Forks well; 21 stages; 2.1 million lbs;  t6/12; cum 8K 12/12;
• 22625, 6538, Triangle, Triangle 149-101-1-12-1H, Antelope Creek, t1/13; cum --
• 22667, 170, Fidelity, O Bach 29-32H, Green River; t10/12; cum 3K 12/12;
• 22996, 761, Abraxas, Jore Federal 2-11-3H, North Forks, t10/12; cum 23K 12/12;
• 23039, 450, Hess, EN-Horst S-154-93-1003H-5, Robinson Lake, t12/12; cum 9K 12/12;
• 23105, 778, Slawson, Lunker Federal 2-33-4H, Van Hook, t10/12; cum 18K 12/12;
• 23250, 2,806, BR, Lovaas 11-1MBH, Blue Buttes, 2-sec spacing, t12/12; cum 5K 12/12;
• 23323, 233, Hunt, Alexandria 1-33-27HTF, wildcat, southwest Divide County, t1/13; cum --
• 23333, drl, QEP, MHA 1-03-35H-150-92, Heart Butte, no production data
• 23346, drl, CLR, Fenster 2-11H, Hamlet, no production data,
• 23348, 385, SM, August 4-26HN, Colgan, t10/12; cum 17K 12/12;

Saturday, February 16, 2013

• 19962, 2,059, KOG, P State 154-97-3-16-21-13H3, Truax, t12/12; cum 8K 12/12;
• 21391, 1,500, KOG, Smokey 15-7-6-2H, Pembroke, t12/12; cum 19K 12/12;
• 22275, drl, XTO, Rose Federal 34X-34C, West Capa, no production data
• 23166, 983, ERF, Bullhead 148-93-15D-16H TF, South Fork, t11/12; cum 35K 12/12;
• 23322, 160, Hunt, Sioux Trail 1-1-12H, wildcat, southwest Divide County; t12/12; cum --

Friday, February 15, 2013

• 21427, 1,502, Slawson, Sniper (Federal) 2-6-7H, Big Ben, t10/12; cum 50K 12/12;
• 22729, drl, BEXP, Alger State 16-21 2TFH, Alger,
• 22845, drl, MRO, Diamona A 31-28TFH, Bailey,
• 23030, 2,966, BR, Walter 31-29MBH, Haystack Butte, 2-sec spacing; t12/12; cum --
• 23040, 402, Hess, EN-Horst S-154-93-1003H-6, Robinson Lake, t1/13; cum 6K 12/12;
• 23207, 1,539, Newfield, Orvis State 150-99-21-16-2H, South Tobacco Garden, t10/12; cum 41K 12/12;
• 23334, drl, QEP, MHA 3-03-35H-150-92, Heart Butte,
• 23345, drl, CLR, Milton 3-14H, Hamlet,
• 23352, 424, CLR, Missoula 3-21H, Camp, t1/13; cum --

**********************

22519, 10 (no typo), OXY USA, Ward Lake 1-5-6H-160-91, Dimond,  an extension of the Dimond field; Three Forks well; 21 stages; 2.1 million lbs;  t6/12; cum 8K 12/12:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2012	2025	0
11-2012	1511	0
10-2012	525	0
9-2012	1733	0
8-2012	1331	0

22667, 170, Fidelity, O Bach 29-32H, Green River, oh-oh:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2012	471	225
11-2012	938	1
10-2012	669	0
8-2012	473	0

 23166, 983, ERF, Bullhead 148-93-15D-16H TF, South Fork, t11/12; cum 35K 12/12:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2012	20396	0
11-2012	14398	0

Well, Mr Hofmeister, There It Is: $5.00 Gasoline

It only took a year.

CBS is reporting: $5.00 gasoline "returns" to the Southland. Predictable.

CNS reports: price of gasoline doubles under President Obama.

President Obama to Canadian oil for $60/bbl: NO. -- ABC NEWS

President Obama to Venezuela oil for $120/bbl: YES. -- Bloomberg

Headline Stories in The Boston Globe: Thank Goodness For Fracking; Highly Contaminated Mystic River In Massachusetts

CNN headline story:  Gas prices have risen for 32 days straight, according to AAA. That means that the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has increased more than 13% over that period to $3.73.

CBS is reporting: $5.00 gasoline "returns" to the Southland. Predictable.

CNS reports: price of gasoline doubles under President Obama.

*******************

So, the two headline stories above the fold in today's holiday edition of The Boston Globe. Neither story related to the other. The big photo-story: the very contaminated Mystic River in Massachusetts will be a nightmare to clean.

And, then, next to that: Thank goodness for fracking. Shale oil reviving refinery industry: fracking offers a cheaper supply; keeps gasoline prices from rising more. Little consolation. Cue up Connie Francis.

And so it goes.

Slow-Rolling the Keystone XL

CNN headline story:  Gas prices have risen for 32 days straight, according to AAA. That means that the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has increased more than 13% over that period to $3.73.

Minnesotans want to see the price of gasoline higher. Apparently Minnesotans feel farmers should pay more for diesel. [For a response to this article, click here.]

Critics of a booming silica sand mining industry will ask lawmakers to hit the pause button Tuesday when the Minnesota Legislature holds its first-ever hearing on a subject that has so far been left up to local governments. 

Activists chartered two buses from southeastern Minnesota to the Capitol for a joint hearing of the Senate and House environment committees. They hope to convince legislators that sand mining is a regional issue that needs broader regulation than it now gets in Minnesota or neighboring Wisconsin, where the "sand rush" has been roaring for several years.

Their top goal is a hold on new mines, processing plants and transportation facilities so that Minnesota can do a broad study of the environmental, health and other effects of digging up silica sand and shipping it to the oil and gas fields of North Dakota and other states. The sand is a crucial component in hydraulic fracturing, a process also known as fracking, that has unlocked vast new energy supplies. 

CBS is reporting: $5.00 gasoline "returns" to the Southland. Predictable.

CNS reports: price of gasoline doubles under President Obama.

***************************

Don alerted me to a Billings Gazette story that Nebraska won't get the power lines in place for the Keystone XL before the end of 2015.

A Nebraska utility says the new route for a proposed oil pipeline that would carry Canadian crude oil through the state will delay work on electric transmission lines for the pipeline.

Nebraska Public Power District officials said they won't be able to build the transmission lines by the deadline TransCanada set for the end of 2014.

NPPD Chief Operating Officer Tom Kent said there's no way the transmission lines will be ready by 2015.

The most interesting part of the story: the spokesman only says when it won't be completed; no idea when it will be completed.

More on the Keystone XL 1.0 here. 

What Determines The Price Of Gasoline; Did Killing The Keystone Bring Us To Current High Price of Gasoline?

Updates

March 1, 2013: just surfing around the net for something else, and I happened to run across this paragraph in an article about the price of gasoline posted back in January, 2012:

But first, the oil needs to get to market. There, we’ve often seen economics trumped by politics – even as the U.S. economy remains weak. The recent moratorium in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as the decision to deny the permit for the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada to U.S. refineries, are just two examples of U.S. political decisions that serve to keep supplies out.

February 21, 2013: RBN Energy post this date suggests more evidence that killing Keystone XL 1.0 is, more than any other factor, responsible for the soaring price of gasoline.

February 20, 2013: Bloomberg's response to faux environmentalists regarding the Keystone XL 2.0.
Canada's oil and Venezuela's oil have the same CO2 profile. Canadian oil: $60/bbl; Venezuelan oil: $120/bbl. Canada: closest ally; Venezuela: OPEC. Canadian oil: American jobs; Venezuelan oil: no American jobs, and money to Chavez.

February 19, 2013: I haven't look at the poll results -- and won't until I'm ready to post the results, but I assume most folks (99%) are blowing me off as a nut with regard to the Keystone and the price of gasoline. That's fine. Listen to this video -- link sent by Don -- there are three parts to the long interview. Pay attn to Daniel Yergin only (the other two have to do with futures trading which I am not interested in and does not add anything to the question at hand). Daniel Yergin is a very, very credible "talking head." I read his book, The Prize, several years ago and is at my bedside; it is a phenomenally good book. Now it's simply a history book, not a book to be read by investors. But if you listen to what Yergin has to say about pipelines, he supports the argument in the original post below. Yergin practically yelled this: CO2 profile of Canadian oil sands oil is the same as Venezuela oil. Canadian oil sands oil: $60/bbl; Venezueal oil: $120/bbl. 

Later, 10:45 a.m.: two stories being reported --

• CBS is reporting: $5.00 gasoline "returns" to the Southland. Predictable.
• CNS reports: price of gasoline doubles under President Obama.

Later, 8:00 a.m.: CNN headline story:  Gas prices have risen for 32 days straight, according to AAA. That means that the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline has increased more than 13% over that period to $3.73.


Later, 8:41 a.m.: this is really quite amazing. No sooner had I posted the note below, that Don sends me a Billings Gazette story that Nebraska won't get the power lines in place for the Keystone XL before the end of 2015. Cue up Connie Francis. More of that story here.

Original Post

Background: over the weekend, I posted a new poll. It was "confusing" to some. I promised that I would post a bit of background explaining the thinking behind the poll. As usual, just some data points. I will let others connect the dots, fill in the gaps, but as you go through this, it all comes back to this:

• US refineries are predominantly heavy oil refineries, and can't switch to light oil overnight
• Canadian oil sands oil is selling for $60/bbl -- but choked because of policy decision to kill the Keystone XL; original plans to have it completed by 2012 - 2013
• to make up the Canadian oil sands shortfall, US refineries are buying Venezuela oil (OPEC) with Brent priced at $120
• the math: Canadian oil ($60); Venezuela oil ($120); the US shuns Canadian oil

*************************

On February 11, 2013, The Christian Science Monitor reported that the price of gasoline had hit a historic high for this time of year, and then asked the question: what is driving up the price of gasoline? According to the article:

A combination of high crude prices, refinery shutdowns, and early speculation has sent gas prices soaring to seasonal highs earlier than usual this year, with no signs of prices at the pump falling until spring, according to recent estimates. -- The CSM

The article mentioned these factors contributing to the high price of gasoline, in this order:

• higher crude price, which in turn due to expectations of improving global economy*
• seasonal changes, as refineries convert from winter blend to summer blend
• speculation 

But those factors are always there. An expanded list of factors that contribute to the price of gasoline might be:

• price of oil
• strength/weakness of the dollar; inflation
• refinery expenses/refurbishing/maintenance/fires
• seasonal: switching from winter to summer blend
• summer blends more expensive than winter blends
• state-mandated blends
• ethanol/EPA requirements
• transportation (from refinery to pump)
• demand destruction
• economy in general (gasoline demand)

But again, those factors are always there. The question that one needs to ask, is it just the "same old same old" or is there another reason for the record-breaking price of gasoline (this early in the "season")?

Facts:

• many American refineries rely on heavy oil (too long to go into; background posted earlier)
• Canadian oil sands oil is selling at a discount of $60 to Brent (i.e., Western Canadian Select/WCS)
• WTI/WCS spread is almost $40
• WTI/Brent spread is about $20
•  "heavy oil refineries" cannot substitute light oil for heavy oil
• sources of heavy oil: Brent, OPEC (Venezuela), Canadian
• there are two bottlenecks associated with Canadian heavy oil: a) pipeline; and, b) diluent
• US refineries unable to obtain Canadian WCS oil at $60/bbl, are paying for OPEC oil at Brent prices, $120/bbl

I've always said that killing the Keystone would not be the reason for higher gasoline prices.

However, it is becoming more and more difficult to make that argument when Canadian WCS oil is pricing at $60/bbl, and in lieu of that, US refineries are buying heavy oil at Brent crude prices, $120/bbl.

One wonders what the price of gasoline would be if US refineries were buying Canadian WCS oil at $60/bbl rather than paying Venezuela $120/bbl.

From wiki: The Keystone XL was expected to be completed by 2012–2013, however construction has been overcome by events.

One can discuss all the reasons for the price of gasoline, and go through the lists above, but the one thing that jumps out at me: Canadian crude oil: $60/bbl. Venezuelan crude oil: $120/bbl.

I think one can make an argument that the policy decision to kill the Keystone XL back in February, 2012, is the single biggest factor contributing to what The Christian Science Monitor says is the record-breaking price of gasoline, with no sign of improving.

And that's the reason for the poll. I assume, the polling will be 100% "no" -- the Keystone XL was not the primary factor. I'm beginning to wonder.

[*Saying the high price of gasoline is due to the high price of crude is almost tautological.]

[Someday, looking back on the history of this, someone will note -- TransCanada's plan was to have the Keystone XL completed by 2012 - 2013. Faux environmentalists held up this project so long, and the politicians delayed so long, it was not even until February, 2012, when the president made the decision to kill the Keystone XL. Now a year later, February, 2013, we are being told that the decision for Keystone XL 2.0 will not be made before mid-2013 (June, 2013).]

[My welcome/disclaimer page contains more background regarding my posts.]

Estimates of Bakken Recoverable Oil

I think the official USGS estimate for recoverable oil in the Bakken is about 3 billion barrels, based on an old study; I think the last study was done in 2008, but I've lost track of a lot of this stuff. Hardly matters any more, does it?

Continental Resources is pushing the envelope, estimating as much as 24 billion bbls recoverable oil in a trillion-barrel original-oil-in-place shale reservoir.

According to Fox Business, NDIC puts the number at 6.5 billion bbls recoverable oil. To date, slightly less than one-fourth billion bbls have been recovered. So when four times the current total produced has been shipped, the Bakken will still be less than a billion bbls recovered. Then, only 5.5 billion more bbls to go ... and that's the NDIC estimate. As noted above, Harold Hamm suggests 24 billion.