Elsewhere a question has been raised regarding a case before the NDIC in which an operator is requesting a change to the stratigraphic definition at a specific location in the Bakken (where they will be drilling).
The questioner says he/she has not seen this before. In fact, it is a fairly common request; I've seen it numerous times.
However, I've never understood the ramifications of such a request. Hopefully this thread will develop into something accurate and informative.
Pages
▼
Monday, January 2, 2012
Bakken Weather -- Dazed and Confused
I'm not there, so I really don't know, but looking at the 7-day weather forecast and listening to the national weather report talking of an Arctic cold front coming through, it certainly looks like Williston is going to have a nice week. It looks like the Arctic blast will miss Williston.
It gets a bit cool in Williston tomorrow, but then on Thursday, the highs will be near 50 (47) and still at 36 on Friday. Each day of nice weather in the Bakken is one day closer to spring.
And even here in Boston, they say it won't be that bad.
By the way, weather forecasters are actually mentioning the phrase "wind chill" -- remember the earlier post and the earlier announcement that the NWS in Bismarck, North Dakota, would not be reporting the "wind chill" this year.
It appears that either the NWS got a lot of grief over that, or their announcement was misinterpreted. This link says it was a "rumor" but in fact, if it was a rumor it was started by the NWS itself (same link):
What Part of No Don't You Understand? Lorrie Morgan
Regardless of the facts, the NWS, apparently, will continue to report the wind chill.
This is why I love to blog! Absolutely incredible. On another one of my blogs, I argue that 1969 was the best year for music. 1969. Period. Dot. I'm always looking for songs from 1969 to prove my point.
Then out of the blue, tonight I get a comment in which "anonymous" says he/she is confused.
And there it was: "Dazed and Confused" by Led Zeppelin, released in 1969 on their DEBUT album. What are the odds!
Dazed and Confused, Led Zeppelin
Having said that, this is still THE Led Zeppelin classic, released in 1970:
Whole Lotta Love, Led Zeppelin
A huge "thank you" to whomever was confused.
It gets a bit cool in Williston tomorrow, but then on Thursday, the highs will be near 50 (47) and still at 36 on Friday. Each day of nice weather in the Bakken is one day closer to spring.
And even here in Boston, they say it won't be that bad.
By the way, weather forecasters are actually mentioning the phrase "wind chill" -- remember the earlier post and the earlier announcement that the NWS in Bismarck, North Dakota, would not be reporting the "wind chill" this year.
It appears that either the NWS got a lot of grief over that, or their announcement was misinterpreted. This link says it was a "rumor" but in fact, if it was a rumor it was started by the NWS itself (same link):
The National Weather Service in Bismarck says it won't be issuing wind chill values this winter. [cut and paste; can't be much clearer than that]That sounds pretty clear to me.
Instead, the weather service will issue "extreme cold" statements when the actual temperature and wind combine to make it feel like 30-35 below zero across a wide area for several hours.
Harlyn Wetzel, meteorologist for the weather service in Bismarck, said the change in delivering the winter weather information is an experiment of sorts and people can participate in an online survey to tell the service if they like the changes - or if they don't like them.
Wetzel said one reason for the change is that many times in North Dakota, winter weather can be dangerously cold with little or no wind.
Regardless of the facts, the NWS, apparently, will continue to report the wind chill.
********************
This is why I love to blog! Absolutely incredible. On another one of my blogs, I argue that 1969 was the best year for music. 1969. Period. Dot. I'm always looking for songs from 1969 to prove my point.
Then out of the blue, tonight I get a comment in which "anonymous" says he/she is confused.
And there it was: "Dazed and Confused" by Led Zeppelin, released in 1969 on their DEBUT album. What are the odds!
Having said that, this is still THE Led Zeppelin classic, released in 1970:
A huge "thank you" to whomever was confused.
Bambi -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken
As trees grow taller, the stands provide more habitat for yellow warblers and other songbirds and more food for beavers, which in turn construct ponds that attract fish, reptiles and amphibians.
While reading that sentence above, visions of Disney's Bambi flashed across my temporal lobe.
What's resulting in re-forestation in the west?
If you are a proponent of reintroduction of wolves into the far west, taller trees are due to wolves culling the elk herds.
If you are a proponent of climate change, it is global warming that is resulting in taller trees, yellow warblers, other songbirds, more food for beavers, which in turn construct ponds that attract fish, reptiles and amphibians.
While other factors may play a role, from a changing climate to wildfires, more than a decade of research has confirmed earlier assertions that the return of Yellowstone's elk-hungry wolves has spurred new plant growth, he said.
And we're being told climate change is bad?
How Busy Is It in The Bakken?
According to The Dickinson Press:
Well it's pretty dangerous if you're not wearing your seat belt, are driving drunk, or unlucky enough to be driving when others around you are driving drunk.
One can control two of those variables, and significantly reduce the risk of the third variable.
Again, it would be nice to see denominators in these stories. We have numerators (number of deaths) but not denominators (number of drivers). And lots of other data, most importantly, when highway deaths most likely to occur.
But with 6,000 vehicles vs 2,300 vehicles on one stretch of road, increased accidents is not a surprise.
But this is the big story: these vehicles are driving in an industrial park at 65 mph.
Measured in square miles, the Williston Basin is the biggest industrial/construction park in America. Perhaps this is an even better link.
(Note: Some cities/counties make it difficult for new taxi companies to operate; again, this is not rocket science.)
North Dakota Department of Transportation figures show that about 6,000 vehicles traveled on a stretch of U.S. Highway 85 west of Watford City to the junction of U.S. Highway 2 near Williston in 2011, compared to 2,300 vehicles on the same stretch in 2006.How dangerous is it?
The vehicle count on U.S. Highway 2 north of Williston to the junction of U.S. Highway 85 went from approximately 5,000 per day in 2006 to 12,000 in 2011.
Well it's pretty dangerous if you're not wearing your seat belt, are driving drunk, or unlucky enough to be driving when others around you are driving drunk.
One can control two of those variables, and significantly reduce the risk of the third variable.
Again, it would be nice to see denominators in these stories. We have numerators (number of deaths) but not denominators (number of drivers). And lots of other data, most importantly, when highway deaths most likely to occur.
But with 6,000 vehicles vs 2,300 vehicles on one stretch of road, increased accidents is not a surprise.
But this is the big story: these vehicles are driving in an industrial park at 65 mph.
Measured in square miles, the Williston Basin is the biggest industrial/construction park in America. Perhaps this is an even better link.
(Note: Some cities/counties make it difficult for new taxi companies to operate; again, this is not rocket science.)
Mindfulness -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With the Bakken
There's an interesting Q&A essay in today's Boston Globe by Jon Kabat-Zinn, a professor emeritus at the U of M Medical Center and the founding director of its Stress Reduction Clinic, and, of course, the writer of a couple books on the same subject. From the Q&A essay:
I do not know if Medicare covers visits to his stress reduction clinic.
And so it goes, here in Boston. And folks wonder why I would rather be out and about in the Bakken.
Mindfulness is a way of being. It's actually pretty challenging (for humans) to inhabit the present moment. It requires cultivation by continually checking and seeing where your mind is. Most of the time, we're lost in thought, we're off int he past, we're obsessing about the future or planning or worrying.I do know that this is exactly why dogs are so happy and cats are so serene/content: they are always living in the moment. My understanding is that dogs and cats to not obsess about the past or worry about the future.
The present moment, which is the only one we're ever alive in, tends to get squeezed out.
I do not know if Medicare covers visits to his stress reduction clinic.
And so it goes, here in Boston. And folks wonder why I would rather be out and about in the Bakken.
Updated Posts -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA
Update
August 17, 2012: someday, maybe someday, someone can explain Baytex wells to me.
How incredible. This morning, with absolutely nothing else to do, I drilled down into the Ambrose, West Ambrose, and Blooming Prairie fields. Just as I was completing the post, looking to find some news, this is what I found: SeekingAlpha.com, dated January 2, 2012: Review, 7 Dividend Paying Canadian Oil & Gas Equities. I guess great minds think alike. And just before that, the only new post at Teegue's discussion group was from "ambrosegirl." Wow.
The seven Canadian equities reviewed in link above: Baytex, Cenovus, Enbridge, Enerplus, Pengrowth, Provident, and Penn West. The best performing in 2011, ENB, with a 30% gain. Third best was Baytex at 20%. (As usual with my site, many numbers are rounded.)
From Minyanville, eight (8) energy stocks that pay out.
From SeekingAlpha.com, five (5) monthly dividend stocks to buy and two (2) to avoid. On another note, the writer is a great analyst who replies to those who comment/ask legitimate questions. Be sure to read the comments if you go to this link.
For folks interested in this little part of the Williston Basin, you might find entertaining, this post on Kaiser-Francis, which is due to be reviewed again in February, 2012.
Original Post
IPs for all wells in Ambrose, West Ambrose, and Blooming Prairie oil fields have been updated.Let's look at one of those Ambrose wells:
- 20285, 32, SM Energy/Baytex, Haugenoe 22-162-99H; s2/11; t4/11; cum 49K 11/17; 16 stages; 1.5 million lbs sand; a Three Forks shale (below Three Forks according to this well file)
Five areas of significant drilling activity: a) Parshall-Sanish north of the reservation, obviously; b) the Van Hook / Big Bend areas inside the reservation, especially Slawson; c) the area immediately around Williston, especially to the west, to include eastern Montana; d) the Highway 50 Corridor: on either side of Highway 50 southeast of Kenmare, and north of Parshall, especially EOG; and e) Ambrose, a ways north of Williston.Ambrose-West Ambrose - Blooming Prairie has been a very, very active field considering its location, the IPs, and the relative small size of these "combined" fields. I'm not in the mood to do any greater detailed analysis, but my hunch is that this small area has been as active on a per acre basis as many other fields in the Williston Basin.
And that speaks volumes. Maybe I will come back and turn up the volume but for now will let folks think about what I might be thinking.
Oh, by the way, while enjoying coffee, etc., at the Starbucks on Harvard Square, Cambridge, I happened to see the note from "ambrosegirl" posted elsewhere. She wanted to know the update of two wells:
- 21352, 625, Resource Energy Can-Am/Samson Resources, Montclair 1-12-163-99H (practically on the Canadian border), t3/12; cum 160K 11/17;
- 21353, 614, Resource Energy Can-Am/Samson Resources, Titan 36-25-164-99H, t2/12; cum 146K 11/17;
- 20176, PNC, Titan 36-35-164-99HOR, was to be a Three Forks, never drilled; converted to SWD
- 20569, 68, SM Energy/Baytex, Geralyn Marie 34-163-99H 1DQ, 35K in first four months; not bad; Three Forks shale, 17 stages; 1.7 million lbs sand, t7/11; cum 210K 11/17;
- 19564, 305, SM Energy, Wolter 13-21H, West Ambrose; Three Forks, t1/11; cum 141K 11/17; 20 stages; 1.4 million lbs sand over 3 days (20 stages in 3 days)
- 19965, 642, Resource Energy Can-AM/Samson Resources, Bonneville 36-25-163-100H, West Ambrose, Three Forks, t11/11; cum 238K 11/17; 26 stages; 2.1 million pounds sand
Baytex Energy Corp home page.
We are a leader in heavy oil production. We also have significant light oil resource plays ... our operations are primarily in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin with emerging presence in the United States.Ticker symbol: BTE
Baytex Energy Corp. is a conventional oil and gas company engaged in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin with an emerging presence in the United States. Baytex began as a junior exploration and production company in 1993, converted to a trust in 2003 and converted back to a corporation at year-end 2010 as a result of changes to trust taxation laws in Canada.
- Market cap: $7 billion
- Div yield: 5%
- 3Q11: heavy oil, 71%; light oil, 14%
From September 2003 through year-end 2010, we have grown our reserve base at a compound annual growth rate of 12%, to a level of 229 million barrels of oil equivalent (proved plus probable) at December 31, 2010. At the same time, we have replaced 297% of our annual production at a finding, development, and acquisition cost of $5.90 per boe, excluding changes in future development costs, resulting in a recycle ratio of 5.6x.There is one obvious question that needs to be asked, and maybe I will explore that later.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. See disclaimer at top of sidebar on the right. The author of this blog is an amateur, with no formal training in anything that has to do with this blog, except perhaps a couple of college courses in chemistry. Make no investment decisions based on this blog. The blog is for entertainment and information only. And to promote my "beloved Bakken." And based on the comments I received from my "top stories of 2011" it is definitely succeeding (in the entertainment category). Some folks thought it was a joke that I would suggest that the US becoming a net exporter of oil and oil-refined products for the first time in 60 years was the top story. For some, that data point should not even be on my list. Wow.
It's Gonna Be A Great Year for Investors in Energy
Look at the growth in those companies dissed by the biggest investment funds.
Flashback: November 10, 2009 -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA
This is very, very interesting: to read what I posted back on November 10, 2009 -- about two years ago. (Note: I did update that original post in a couple of places, and have indicated those updates).
I remember when I wrote "single stage fracturing is a thing of the past," the number of comments I got saying I was crazy. I was very wrong on the number of stages that would become the norm.
There were just 33 rigs in North Dakota in 2008. 33 rigs. Wow.
The number of active rigs is now up to 87 (January 24, 2010), 20+ more than when I first posted observations about the increase in rigs in North Dakota back in early November. The Grand Forks Herald reports today (January 24, 2010) that there could be 110 - 120 rigs in North Dakota by mid-summer.
My father says that vehicular traffic has increased significantly in Williston (November 26, 2009).
1. Even the NY Times has noticed that mid-tier companies have been buying up great acreage in the continental US while the majors (like XOM) were ignoring the US, and looking for oil/gas in politically unstable areas overseas. December 15, 2009.
2. Five areas of significant drilling activity: a) Parshall-Sanish north of the reservation, obviously; b) the Van Hook / Big Bend areas inside the reservation, especially Slawson; c) the area immediately around Williston, especially to the west, to include eastern Montana; d) the Highway 50 Corridor: on either side of Highway 50 southeast of Kenmare, and north of Parshall, especially EOG; and e) Ambrose, a ways north of Williston.
3. Is EOG asking for 570 more wells in the Parshall? November 25, 2009.
4. The RS-Feldman well, about 4 miles northwest of Stanley. This appears to be the best Hess well in the Bakken and it may be due to multiple stage fracturing. The presentation by Harold Hamm, November 19, 2009, continues to support my opinion that the increased success in the Bakken is due to multiple fracturing. Some companies are still doing single-stage fracturing -- but I think single-stage fracturing is a thing of the past. Even EOG is studying the "right" number of stages.
5. GeoResources, Inc., announces an aggressive 2010 in North Dakota. GEOI is getting a lot of interesting comments on Yahoo!Finance message boards.
6. Slawson may be the next big story. Look at the results of the the November 3, 2009, North Dakota state land lease auction. In 2007, Slawson had 7 permits in the Williston Basin; in 2008, Slawon had 27 permits; and so far in 2009, Slawson has 25 permits by mid-November. Of the 27 permits granted in 2008, we have yet to hear the outcome of 14 of those permits. The other 13 have resulted in very good wells with IPs ranging from 248 to 2,205 bopd with an average of 791 bopd.
7. There are now 87 active rigs in North Dakota up from a low of "around 33" last autumn, 2008. Many of the big producers say they are still bringing in new rigs for 2009, and certainly for 2010. Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, says he might have 18 rigs in North Dakota this time next year, a significant increase over the 5 rigs CLR currently has. EOG has stated it could triple the number of rigs they have, from 5 to 15. January 24, 2010.
8. Look at the IPs of the wells reported on November 5, 2009 and the wells that reported on December 14. Cut the IP in half, and assume that amount will be produced on a daily basis for the first year, and multiply by $70. Then assume that the wells will be productive for seven years (on a declining basis) but subject to re-fracturing. The numbers are staggering. And not all those IPs were exceptional, many well below 1,000 boepd.
9. The companies engaged in fracking are going to be very, very busy: it appears the norm is now 24-stage fracturing, +/- four stages. Some opine that we may soon see 60-stage fracturing. I have to study it again, but it appears the mathematical relationship between fracturing and exposure to oil is exponential. Regardless, it appears that fracturing increases the initial amount of production, delays the need for a pump (albeit a very short period of time), and increases the ultimate total recovery of oil from a well. (My hunch: frac stages remain somewhere between 14 and 20.)
10. EOG typically has 70 - 80 wells on the confidential list. It has been opined that EOG could drill between 225 and 250 wells in 2010. And that's just one producer working in the Williston Basin, albeit the one with the most rigs (six now and going to 13 or 14 in 2010).
11. The area around Williston is very, very active. There are two areas: west of Williston, mostly BEXP. And then northeast of Williston, the Spring Brook area. In the Stony Creek field there are 11 wells/permits on the confidential list. The BEXP well on SE edge of Williston reported an IP of 3,394 bbls/day, which BEXP says is their largest IP reported to date.
12. Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, opines there may be double the amount of recoverable oil in "the Bakken" forecast by the USGS in 2008. CLR's goal is to double its proved reserves in the Bakken over the next five years.
13. North Dakota is #4 in oil production in the United States, surpassing Louisiana. I never thought that would happen, ever. In December, 2006, Mountrail County produced 1,300 barrels of oil per day; this past October (2009), Mountrail County produced almost 100,000 barrels of oil per day. At $60/barrel, 43 wells in Mountrail County produced $100,000,000 worth of oil at the wellhead over a three month time period, ending in October.
14. Reports that there is yet another formation, the Birdbear, amenable to horizontal drilling are intriguing, but statements saying this is a "new" formation are incorrect. This formation has produced oil, albeit not much, for decades. Incidentally, WLL re-entered an old well that was producing from the Birdbear Formation; exited with a horizontal and ended up with a 2,000 boepd IP in the Bakken (December 8, 2009).
I remember when I wrote "single stage fracturing is a thing of the past," the number of comments I got saying I was crazy. I was very wrong on the number of stages that would become the norm.
There were just 33 rigs in North Dakota in 2008. 33 rigs. Wow.
*****************
My father says that vehicular traffic has increased significantly in Williston (November 26, 2009).
1. Even the NY Times has noticed that mid-tier companies have been buying up great acreage in the continental US while the majors (like XOM) were ignoring the US, and looking for oil/gas in politically unstable areas overseas. December 15, 2009.
2. Five areas of significant drilling activity: a) Parshall-Sanish north of the reservation, obviously; b) the Van Hook / Big Bend areas inside the reservation, especially Slawson; c) the area immediately around Williston, especially to the west, to include eastern Montana; d) the Highway 50 Corridor: on either side of Highway 50 southeast of Kenmare, and north of Parshall, especially EOG; and e) Ambrose, a ways north of Williston.
3. Is EOG asking for 570 more wells in the Parshall? November 25, 2009.
4. The RS-Feldman well, about 4 miles northwest of Stanley. This appears to be the best Hess well in the Bakken and it may be due to multiple stage fracturing. The presentation by Harold Hamm, November 19, 2009, continues to support my opinion that the increased success in the Bakken is due to multiple fracturing. Some companies are still doing single-stage fracturing -- but I think single-stage fracturing is a thing of the past. Even EOG is studying the "right" number of stages.
5. GeoResources, Inc., announces an aggressive 2010 in North Dakota. GEOI is getting a lot of interesting comments on Yahoo!Finance message boards.
6. Slawson may be the next big story. Look at the results of the the November 3, 2009, North Dakota state land lease auction. In 2007, Slawson had 7 permits in the Williston Basin; in 2008, Slawon had 27 permits; and so far in 2009, Slawson has 25 permits by mid-November. Of the 27 permits granted in 2008, we have yet to hear the outcome of 14 of those permits. The other 13 have resulted in very good wells with IPs ranging from 248 to 2,205 bopd with an average of 791 bopd.
7. There are now 87 active rigs in North Dakota up from a low of "around 33" last autumn, 2008. Many of the big producers say they are still bringing in new rigs for 2009, and certainly for 2010. Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, says he might have 18 rigs in North Dakota this time next year, a significant increase over the 5 rigs CLR currently has. EOG has stated it could triple the number of rigs they have, from 5 to 15. January 24, 2010.
8. Look at the IPs of the wells reported on November 5, 2009 and the wells that reported on December 14. Cut the IP in half, and assume that amount will be produced on a daily basis for the first year, and multiply by $70. Then assume that the wells will be productive for seven years (on a declining basis) but subject to re-fracturing. The numbers are staggering. And not all those IPs were exceptional, many well below 1,000 boepd.
9. The companies engaged in fracking are going to be very, very busy: it appears the norm is now 24-stage fracturing, +/- four stages. Some opine that we may soon see 60-stage fracturing. I have to study it again, but it appears the mathematical relationship between fracturing and exposure to oil is exponential. Regardless, it appears that fracturing increases the initial amount of production, delays the need for a pump (albeit a very short period of time), and increases the ultimate total recovery of oil from a well. (My hunch: frac stages remain somewhere between 14 and 20.)
10. EOG typically has 70 - 80 wells on the confidential list. It has been opined that EOG could drill between 225 and 250 wells in 2010. And that's just one producer working in the Williston Basin, albeit the one with the most rigs (six now and going to 13 or 14 in 2010).
11. The area around Williston is very, very active. There are two areas: west of Williston, mostly BEXP. And then northeast of Williston, the Spring Brook area. In the Stony Creek field there are 11 wells/permits on the confidential list. The BEXP well on SE edge of Williston reported an IP of 3,394 bbls/day, which BEXP says is their largest IP reported to date.
12. Harold Hamm, CEO of Continental Resources, opines there may be double the amount of recoverable oil in "the Bakken" forecast by the USGS in 2008. CLR's goal is to double its proved reserves in the Bakken over the next five years.
13. North Dakota is #4 in oil production in the United States, surpassing Louisiana. I never thought that would happen, ever. In December, 2006, Mountrail County produced 1,300 barrels of oil per day; this past October (2009), Mountrail County produced almost 100,000 barrels of oil per day. At $60/barrel, 43 wells in Mountrail County produced $100,000,000 worth of oil at the wellhead over a three month time period, ending in October.
14. Reports that there is yet another formation, the Birdbear, amenable to horizontal drilling are intriguing, but statements saying this is a "new" formation are incorrect. This formation has produced oil, albeit not much, for decades. Incidentally, WLL re-entered an old well that was producing from the Birdbear Formation; exited with a horizontal and ended up with a 2,000 boepd IP in the Bakken (December 8, 2009).