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Wednesday, November 30, 2011

CLR With Permits for a 6-Well Pad in The Bull's Eye Of The Bakken -- Camp Oil Field -- McKenzie County -- Where Action Is Headed in 2012

In today's daily activity report, November 30, 2011, it appears CLR has permits for putting six wells on one pad. The wells will be only 45 feet apart from each other. It's very possible this is not the first six-well pad, but it's the first time I have noted it (a long time ago I blogged a 6-well pad and was told it was two 3-well pads very, very close to each other). So, as far as I am concerned this is the first "real" 6-well pad unless someone can point out others to me.

Last week, I blogged that BEXP had permits for a 5-well pad.

Regardless of whether these are the first 5- and 6-well pads, they clearly demonstrate we are in the manufacturing phase of drilling the Bakken.

Camp oil field is practically in the "bull's eye" of the Bakken, and where the activity is headed in 2012. Camp oil field is literally a stone's throw from the industrial parks west of Williston, just south across the river. Schlumberger, BHI, Cal-Frac, McCody Concrete, Hexom, Cudd, Statesline, and about 55 of their closest friends could not possibly be in a better location for drilling the "bull's eye" of the Bakken.

By the way, west of Williston, it appears another electrical substation is going in next to the large one that is already there. The infrastructure is there, but no wires, transformers, yet. 

CLR's 6-well pad will be about three miles from:
  • 18437, Oasis, 2,887, Angell 5200 31-28H, tested 5/23/10;  Most recently (9/11) it is producing about 2,000 bbls/month and has produced a total of 122,000 bbls to date (9/11). s12/09; t5/10. 
It will be about a mile from:
  • 20638, 591, CLR, Kuhn 1-12H, Camp, Bakken, s5/11; t8/11; 44K 10/11 -- almost 50K in first two months; producing 13K bbls monthly. Don't let that IP of 591 fool you. This is a great well.
It is about the same distance from another great well:
  • 19578, 749, CLR, Missoula 1-21H, Camp, Bakken, s11/10; t3/11; 60K 10/11 and producing 8,000 bbls monthly; 
There are currently four rigs on site in Camp oil field (BEXP [2], Oasis, and SM).

Here are the permits for the six CLR wells going on one pad:
  • 21977 - CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC., FLORIDA 3-11H, SWNE 14-152N-100W, MCKENZIE CO., 1560' FNL and 1408' FEL, DEVELOPMENT, CAMP, 'Tight Hole',
  • 21979 - CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC., ALPHA 3-14H, SWNE 14-152N-100W, MCKENZIE CO., 1560' FNL and 1363' FEL, DEVELOPMENT, CAMP, 'Tight Hole',
  • 21980 - CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC., FLORIDA 1-11H, SWNE 14-152N-100W, MCKENZIE CO., 1560' FNL and 1318' FEL, DEVELOPMENT, CAMP, 'Tight Hole', 21981 - CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC., ALPHA 1-14H, SENE 14-152N-100W, MCKENZIE CO., 1560' FNL and 1273' FEL, DEVELOPMENT, CAMP, 'Tight Hole',
  • 21982 - CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC., FLORIDA 2-11H, SENE 14-152N-100W, MCKENZIE CO., 1560' FNL and 1228' FEL, DEVELOPMENT, CAMP, 'Tight Hole',
  • 21983 - CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC., ALPHA 2-14H, SENE 14-152N-100W, MCKENZIE CO., 1560' FNL and 1183' FEL, DEVELOPMENT, CAMP, 'Tight Hole'
So, maybe next year when I return to the Bakken, I can drive down a few miles from Williston and see six flares on one pad. Exciting.

Fifteen (15) New Permits -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, November 30, 2011 --

Operators: CLR (6), Whiting (3), Chesapeake (3), SM, Fidelity, Hunt

Fields: Camp, Parshall, New Hradec, Croff, Sanish.

Chesapeake has permits for three wildcats, all in Stark County.

It appears CLR has permits for six wells on one pad.

And not any surprise, Whiting has three permits for wells in their cash cow, the Sanish. It looks like these three wells will be filling in sections 8/18 in 154-91, but hard to say for sure. In this immediate area are the following five long horizontal wells:
  • 18082, 858, Whiting, Carkuff 11-12H, s6/09; t8/09; 130K 10/11
  • 18085, 1,370, Whiting, Jones 11-8H, s8/09; t10/09; 164K 10/11
  • 19069, 2,320, Whiting, Strobeck 12-12H, s7/10; t10/10; 161K 10/11
  • 19259, 2,746, Whiting, Jones 12-8H, s8/10; t10/10; 139K 10/11
  • 19355, 3,159, Whiting, Sikes State 43-16H, s9/10; t1/11; 127K 10/11
Reported elsewhere, three wells came off the confidential list; two were completed. Fidelity reported a nice well:
  • 20514, 1,145, Fidelity, Clifford 14-24H-5, Bakken, Mountrail County
Of five (5) wells on DRL status, all were Bakken and none were exciting. In fact the IPs were worrisome, but there may be explanations. The IPs were 353, 19, 60, 44, and 50 -- not good using just that single data point. But there may be more to follow. Respectively they were OXY USA, OXY USA, OXY USA, Prima Exploration, and OXY USA wells, all in Burke and Dunn counties.

The Hypocrisy Amazes Me -- BLM Fast Tracks Proven Golden Eagle / Whooping Crane Killers; Holds Up Any Project That Might Threaten A Sage Grouse; Oil Company Fined for Killing a Single Sandplover During Worse Spring Flood In Decades

The hypocrisy amazes me.

BLM fast-tracks proven golden eagle and whooping crane killers, but will hold up any project that threatens a sage grouse.
The U.S. Bureau of Land Management says it will fast-track three Wyoming wind energy projects in 2012, although representatives from the BLM’s state office say the projects were already considered priorities.

The BLM named the Sand Hills Ranch, Chokecherry/Sierra Madre and White Mountain projects among 17 renewable energy priority projects in four states due to receive increased focus next year.

The BLM’s 2012 priority list also includes solar, wind and hydropower projects in Arizona, Nevada and California.

The 1,000-turbine Chokecherry and Sierra Madre Wind Energy Project is proposed by Denver-based Anschutz Corp. subsidiary Power Co. of Wyoming for south of Rawlins. It is the largest wind farm on the BLM’s list.
Two words: Sierra Club.

Kiewit -- Buffett -- The Bakken -- Home Construction -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Some dots to connect; random data points.

Kiewit Instructure Group is doing the earthwork of some of the residential subdivisions in Williston, including the largest subdivision, Harvest Hills, northwest of Williston; Kiewit is linked in with Granite Peak and Knife River (MDU subsidiary) on the projects (Granite Peak subdivision, Timbers subdivision, and Harvest Hills subdivision).

I was told by one of the construction foremen in Williston that Warren Buffett "owns" at least one of the construction companies building the houses which are brought to Williston, pre-assembled elsewhere, and then placed on basement foundations; the garages are built on site.

Today it is announced that Warren Buffett will be buying the Omaha World-Herald Company, publisher of Nebraska’s principal daily newspaper, The World-Herald, as well as six other daily papers.
In a statement, Mr. Kroeger said that Mr. Buffett’s offer to purchase the company “presented a unique opportunity to address our long-term capital needs and continue local ownership of the Omaha World-Herald, which is consistent with the legacy left to us by Mr. Kiewit.” Peter Kiewit, the owner of an Omaha-based construction and mining company, purchased the paper in 1962.

After Mr. Kiewit’s death in 1979, 80 percent of the paper became owned by employee shareholders and 20 percent by the Peter Kiewit Foundation. 
Warren Buffett, of course, owns the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad, which is the primary (only?) railroad serving the Bakken boom.

Cramer's Energy Picks -- Seeking Alpha.com

Link here.

  • EOG: "one of the single ways to play the many large oil discoveries in the US." But wait for a pullback.
  • CHK: "could trade around $40 (currently $23) in the next couple of years, but that would most likely depend on stronger natural gas prices and lower unemployment." Well, duh.
  • ETP: strong dividend payout; yields over 8 percent; the company is about to sell the propane division which could be a positive move for the stock
  • COP: solid yield, company will buy back shares, and plans for a stock split
  • KMP: strong dividend yield of over 6 percent and a stable revenue source keeps this stock from large sell-offs
  • ESV:  strong dividend with a yield of 3%; trades for 8 times 2012 earnings
  • APA: growth potential attractive
Note disclaimer at top of sidebar at the right. This site is not an investment site; no one should make any investment decisions based on what is posted here. If something looks wrong on this site, it probably is. Fact check with wiki, or similar ultra-reliable source.

I was not impressed with this article. It looks like a grab bag of energy companies with an overweight in natural gas. The reason the writer suggested Cramer liked many of these is because Cramer thought the share price would appreciate. Okay.

US Could Be Energy Top Dog Again - Investopedia

Link here
The potential is huge and could make the U.S. top dog in energy production, once again.
That would be something: the US becomes the world's energy leader once again. And to think the administration could take credit for this turnaround if those folks weren't so ideologically opposed to oil.  Wow.  

I think this might be the first administration in years to never utter the phrase "energy independent" and yet it could be the first administration in 50 years that could truly lead us into energy independence. The irony of it all.

The linked article is about Enbridge's decision to reverse the flow of oil from Cushing to the Gulf, rather than from the Gulf to Cushing, the current direction. 

At the linked article, look at WLL, CLR, and DNR.

I am surprised at how often DNR is mentioned by investment blogs.

Speaking of which, note the disclaimer at the top of the sidebar on the right. This is not an investment site. Don't make any investment decisions based on what you read at this site. If something seems wrong on this blog, it probably is. Fact check at wiki.

Cairn To Abandon Two Exploratory Wells in Greenland; Re-Evaluate Program There

Update

January 21, 2014: Statoil to abandon Greenland for "greener" pastures.

January 23, 2012: Never give up. Now, Statoil will join Cairn in looking for oil off Greenland.

December 1, 2011: Good, I'm not confused. Rigzone reports what I noted below -- "Cairn remains optimistic despite recent failures in Greenland."

November 30, 2011: Well, I'm confused, although it doesn't take much to confuse me. Today, it's being reported that Cairn is optimistic about prospects in Greenland:
Cairn Energy PLC expressed encouragement that all ingredients for commercial success are present off western Greenland after its 2010 and 2011 wells encountered oil and gas shows in multiple basins and found reservoir quality sands in the Atammik block.

The company is evaluating data on multiple blocks and discussing farm-outs in selected areas. It is considering another 3D seismic survey over the Lady Franklin and Atammik region next year that could lead to further drilling in later years.
The rest of the story did not sound all that encouraging, but who knows? That's a rhetorical question; please don't answer. 

Original Post

Link here. Just another example how fortunate North Dakota is to have the Bakken.
London-listed shares of Cairn Energy fell 3.8% after the company said it’s abandoning two exploration wells in Greenland. The company said it would review its exploration program there. 
This was on a day when other oil companies soared; price of WTI solidly at $101/bbl; and US stock market soared 400 points. Not all energy companies are being treated equal.

Note disclaimer at top of sidebar at the right. This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read at this site. If something seems wrong at this site, it probably is. Fact check at wiki.

Speaking of Greenland, the Vikings were apparently the cause of anthropogenic global warming a thousand years ago through the use of their coal-powered Viking ships. 

By the way, a bit of trivia. The term "rostrum" comes from the Latin rostum, meaning beak. The beak of the Viking ships were called rostra. Following a successful raid, the victorious Vikings would carry in the rostrum of a defeated opponent and place it in their mead halls as decorations. That's the background to why the speaker's dais of modern day is still called a rostrum. To the best of my knowledge, the Vikings did not need teleprompters.

Russia Sounds Alarm on Shale Natural Gas -- Wall Street Journal

Earlier this week I suggested Gazprom had infiltrated the EPA. That was tongue-in-cheek; I may not have been too far off the mark.

Gazprom and the EPA now appear to agree: fracking is dangerous.
Shale gas has revolutionized the gas business in the U.S., and industry experts and executives say the same could happen in Europe and Asia.

Russia, however, has repeatedly downplayed the role of shale gas and insisted it won’t hurt its lucrative model of extracting gas at deposits in West Siberia and pumping it through huge pipelines to consumers in Russia and Europe.

But in a sign the phenomenon is in fact being taken seriously, the board of directors at the world’s biggest gas producer, state-owned OAO Gazprom, this week highlighted environmental risks and the high costs of production in Europe.
Comments at the link were priceless: a) Gazprom using a page from Al Gore's playbook; and, b) when have the Russians ever been concerned about the environment.

By the way, the US has now leapfrogged over Russia and is now the #1 producer of natural gas in the world. Despite all the efforts of the administration to hamstring the oil and gas industry on shale gas development, the US has jumped to number 1.

The EPA might argue otherwise, that it hasn't determined whether fracking is dangerous, but facts speaker louder than teleprompted words: the EPA is set to issue federal guidelines on fracking, and that wouldn't be necessary if the EPA didn't think fracking was dangerous.

This is Pretty Special: Forbes Touts KOG -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.

Of the tens of thousands of small-cap companies, a group of analysts interviewed by Forbes included KOG among the five -- five as in 5 -- small-cap companies that they think have growth potential.

The list of five: KOG, Cinemark Holdings, Hibbett Sporting Goods, Alamo Group, and Bristow Group.

Wow, that's pretty special.

US Workers Increased Their Productivity --

Link here.
Over the summer, consumers increased their spending at triple the rate seen in the spring. That helped the economy expand, which likely boosted worker productivity.

When demand rises and productivity is low, it's usually a sign that businesses have reached the limit on the amount of work they can squeeze out of their work forces. That often leads some to hire more workers, if they want to grow. 
Does anyone see the fallacy in that analysis? No, businesses don't have to hire more workers. There are at least three more options: a) add technology; b) increase efficiency; and/or c) out-source non-core competencies.

What do those three options have in common? A couple of things: a) no pensions; b) no health care premiums.

Speaking of which, remember all the waivers the Department of Health and Human Services has given to states and businesses that cannot afford ObamaCare? It turns out DHHS is fairly selective to whom they will give those waivers. Red states need not apply.

By the way, there is a fourth option which my nephew is experiencing at the truck manufacturing plant in Portland, Oregon, where he works: mandatory overtime. Initially, overtime was offered to the senior union workers, but now, with so much work, overtime is being offered to all, and if there is still more work to be done, they are being "offered" mandatory overtime.

Companies will be doing everything they can to forgo hiring new employees, at least until after the 2012 election.

Beautiful, Balmy, Bakken Day -- Weather Storm Warming For Next 24 Hours -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

If things go as scheduled, this will be my last full day in the Bakken for awhile. Sad face. Tomorrow I fly out of Williston's international airport on a direct flight to Boston. Just kidding. I have a layover in Denver. 

Another beautiful day in the Bakken, 34 degrees or so. No breeze to speak of, so it feels even warmer. We are being told there is a weather storm warning for the next 24 hours with blowing snow, perhaps as much as four inches of falling snow, and a low of 11 degrees. So, we'll see. You may remember that the National Weather Service will no longer be reporting wind chill temperatures. The official reason is that it confused folks; the real reason is that wind chill temperatures put a chill on the "sky-is-falling" global warming alarms. A 60-degrees-below-zero wind chill just does not jive with global warming.

I see that TCOP is up $1.67, solidly over $100, in futures market today. We'll know in a few minutes where the price of oil is headed today.

I just updated "New Wells Reporting," a carryover from yesterday; nothing exciting to report, and unless you have absolutely nothing else to do, I would not bother going to the link. 

Elsewhere, they are talking about the "production life of a Bakken well."  It's 34.5 years. Some wells will be economically productive for 50+ years; some for 25 years, but the average will be 34.5 years. That is based on critical analysis of the current 5,000+ wells still producing in the Williston Basin, some of which have been producing since the late 1950's. I'm waiting for Dufus to weigh in. Algorithms to calculate the horrendous Bakken decline rate versus the economic viability of the Bakken wells can be deduced from corporate presentations of the past two years regarding the Bakken. Note the free fall in economic viability that occurs when the EPA bans fracking.

Speaking of which, I'm sure you all saw the press release from yesterday regarding EPA's stance on regulating fracking. If you parse the phrases very closely, you will note the EPA is saying exactly what Lynn Helms has been saying. One can infer from the press release that the EPA is only concerned about the diesel used in fracking wells in frigid North Dakota weather. That's why it will take the EPA four years (or more) to write the 500-page (or more) definition of diesel. By the way, note the titles of the EPA officials contacted: "Director of Ground Water and Drinking Water"; and, "Director of Drinking Water Protection Division."  Apparently, the "Director of Ground Water Protection Division" was unavailable for the conference call. I assume the three work for the "Executive Director of Well Water, Ground Water, Drinking Water, Safety and Protection, and General Harassment of Big Oil Division (WWGWDWSPGHBOD as it is known in DC).

So, 8:32. Let's see what TCOP is doing: up $1.21. Solidly above $101.

Good luck to all.

And, I just noticed: the snow has started to fall. A nice light snow, just covering the ground now. 

8:51 a.m. Up $1.71.

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Another dot to connect when answering the question why did the president kill the Keystone XL project? Some argued that this was a slap in the face of one of America's closest allies and friends. It turns out that the president's world view is that all 190 countries are equal, none should get special treatment.
Obama’s latest gaffe also raises questions about his overall approach to the Special Relationship. This has been a presidency that has significantly downgraded traditional US alliances, from Britain and Israel to eastern and central Europe, while appeasing brutal enemies like Iran as well as strategic adversaries such as Russia. All too often, Washington’s allies have been taken for granted, and even undermined. As a senior State Department official put it in 2009, in the eyes of the current administration: “there’s nothing special about Britain. You’re just the same as the other 190 countries in the world. You shouldn’t expect special treatment.”
The "latest gaffe" refers to the president's response to the sacking of the British Embassy in Tehran in which he said it was the "English Embassy." Wow. No wonder Newt will let the president use his teleprompter in any debate; Newt wants to give the president a level playing field.


*******************

Memo to self: file under "Unintended Consequences." San Francisco's new city ordinance enacted to stem the sale of McDonald's Happy Meals will: a) encourage the sale of McDonald's Happy Meals; b) provide an extra ten cents for every Happy Meal sold to McDonald's favorite charity (their own); and, c) will, in the end, make more money for McDonald's. Money is fungible. That extra ten cents going to charity is ten cents that won't have to come from somewhere else. 

As a rule, I don't care for lawyers. In this case, I will make an exception to the in-house lawyer who thought of this. 

By the way, this is the way it works: a) kids have started their Happy Meal toy collection and want to continue it; b) kids will ask their parents for the toy; they don't care what comes in the bag as long as they get the toy; c) parents will ask for the Happy Meal, thinking that's where the toy is; it isn't; d) McDonald's server will tell them (and the signs will tell them) that San Francisco requires the parents to first plunk down ten cents for the toy; and, e) then they can order the Happy Meal. 

To poke a real stick in the left eye of the San Francisco council, McDonald's should advertise a promotion in which a parent buying a toy for ten cents will get a Happy Meal at discount (yes, a discount of ten cents). And then put the two items -- the Happy Meal and the ten-cent toy -- in two different non-biodegradable paper containers for the San Francisco landfill. Although I suppose San Francisco dumps their garbage into the ocean halfway between Los Angeles and Tokyo.

*******************

Yesterday I posted a note about American Airlines filing for bankruptcy. Today Boeing -- who makes the planes for American Airlines -- says filing for bankruptcy is good for business. Now that AA has filed for bankruptcy, AA will now have more money to buy more planes. Only in America. 

The Issue of Flaring: North Dakota's Modern Day MacGuffin

This story at PennEnergy does not cite the author, but it must have been sent in by the Bismarck Tribune. Just a hunch.
As companies continue developing the plentiful shale oil and natural gas resources in North Dakota, the state has seen a dramatic rise in the amount of gas that does not make it to market, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Over the past six years, natural gas production has nearly tripled in North dakota, reaching more than 485 million cubic feet per day, with the development of the Bakken shale formation using previously unavailable extraction methods.

Much of this production boom, however, has followed the development of oil resources in the region and the necessary infrastructure for utilizing and transporting natural gas - namely pipelines - has not grown as quickly. As a result the percentage of natural gas wasted through flares and other means of disposal has risen from around 10 percent through the first half of the last decade to more than 35 percent today, peaking above 40 percent in early 2009.
Just to keep things in perspective: a) the US is awash in natural gas; it hardly missed the natural gas from North Dakota; b) the Bakken is an oil field; not a natural gas field; the natural gas coming from the Bakken represents four (4) percent of the hydrocarbon economic values of the Bakken; and, c) natural gas is a natural by-product of oil production.

This is not rocket science.

Even if is an issue, it will be resolved over time. North Dakota does not allow operators to flare gas from a well for more than a year.

The whole issue is a red herring.

Like the Ogallala aquifer, the issue of flared natural gas is a modern day MacGuffin.

One Miracle State -- North Dakota -- Carpe Diem -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.
The chart above shows the "Coincident Economic Activity Indexes" for the U.S. and a sample of U.S. states (New York, Florida, California, Arizona, Minnesota, Illinois, and Wisconsin).  The coincident economic indexes are based on four variables: nonfarm payroll employment, the unemployment rate, average hours worked in manufacturing, and wages and salaries.  
When you read the comments to that post, you will understand one reason I quit taking comments; the number of inane comments was overwhelming.  

And, of course, Carpe Diem's cartoon of the day was right on target (no pun intended, when you see the cartoon). 

RIG in Trouble -- Rigzone

Link here.
Transocean Ltd. said it is offering 26 million shares of its common stock as the offshore oil drilling giant looks to raise funds to help refinance a recent acquisition of a Norway-based rival.

Shares were down 8.3% to $42.11 as the company said the offering represents up to 8.9% of its total issued and outstanding shares. The move casts a pall on Transocean's $1.43 billion purchase of Aker Drilling ASA at a time when the company has been dealing with disappointing quarterly earnings, a downgrade in credit ratings, and unsettled litigation related to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

The offering, and its dilutive effect, highlight the fact that the Aker acquisition "has now devolved from looking like a regrettable deal to a borderline catastrophic deal," said analysts with Simmons & Co. The analysts said they had previously criticized the deal as overpriced and ill-timed due to the strain it placed on the company's balance sheet.
See disclaimer at top of the sidebar at the right. This is not an investment site. Make no investment decisions based on what you read at this site. 

Big Oil Will Have Tough Time Cracking Shale Success Overseas -- Rigzone

Great article from Rigzone.com.

References to lessons learned from the Bakken throughout. Again, more proof that, although the Bakken may not be unique, it is extremely rare.