Apple iPad -- Not a Bakken Story

Update

Hewlett-Packard to quit selling it's tablet, and probably spin off it's computer business. Another one bites the dust.

Original Post

As regular readers know, I grew up with Apple and have never owned any computer other than an Apple. I am the original fanboy. Actually that's not quite true. I am #3. Wozniak was number one -- I think I recall him saying that he was Fanboy #1 -- and the author of The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, I think it was, but I could be wrong on this, said he was Fanboy #2.

Be that as it may, I've claimed the #3 spot for myself. Along with several million others, I assume.

I am reminded of that as I sit here and type in a nearby McDonald's (one of the few I might add that doesn't have free wi-fi) on my iPad. I carry my iPad everywhere I go. I got the original dock, and that was fine, but when Apple came out with the Bluetooth keyboard, I was blown away. So here I sit, with the iPad propped up on an empty Big Mac box, typing on the Bluetooth wireless keyboard, elegant in its own right.

I generally don't take the keyboard with me, but when I travel long distances and know I will be blogging, I take it. It is absolutely amazing.

Some folks are going to ask my why I don't just take a laptop? I do. I have a laptop with me also, but the laptop only has wi-fi, no 3G capabilities and there is no free wi-fi here. In addition, the iPad will last ten hours between charges; the laptop a lot less. No need to get out a cord.

Several years ago when traveling through airports, I didn't see many Apple computers. Now, it's unusual to see someone using something other than an Apple.

Anyway, just idle rambling. I don't own stock in Apple. But I don't mind spreading the word. If you are contemplating getting a tablet, the iPad is the only real choice. Folks who say the iPad is too expensive, you can get the wi-fi model without 3G and save a few bucks. The cost of an iPad works out to two monthly car payments. And as I've said before, my iPad gives me a lot more pleasure than my car. (Maybe I need a sportier car.) I do recommend the 3G model however. Nothing is more irritating than being somewhere where you can't connect.

Seven (7) New Permits -- Five of Six Wells Still Waiting T Be Completed -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Say what you want, but it certainly doesn't appear oil companies are closing the gap in wells that need to be fracked/completed.

In today's daily activity report, twelve (12) wells came off the confidential list, and only two reported results. The other ten (10) are on DRL status and waiting to be completed.

A rule of thumb: a company needs a ratio of one dedicated frack team for every three rigs. It takes about 15 days for these rigs to reach total depth these days, and frack teams take about 5 days to move in, frack, and move on. If you want to move the drilling time to 21 days, fine, but the frack teams are probably closer to seven days, start to finish. However you how slice it, it looks like 3 rigs requires 1 dedicated frack team. CLR has about 22 rigs; 5 frack teams, I think. Oasis about 7 rigs, and 2 frack teams; Oasis will be adding a third frack team, but will be adding two more rigs by the end of the year.

There were seven (7) new permits issued today:

Operators: OAS (2), Fidelity (2), CLR, WLL, and Denbury Onshore.

Fields: Alkali Creek, Glass Bluff, Cottonwood, Elkhorn, and a wildcat.

Fidelity has two permits on one pad in the Sanish (exciting for MDU).

OAS has the wildcat in Williams County.

Most interesting is WLL's permit in Elkhorn field, in Billings County, center of activity for Three Forks.

Congressional Policies Send More Jobs To Canada -- Canadian Company Buys Bank of America Credit Card Business -- Not a Bakken Story

Link here.

It appears BofA is selling only its Canadian credit card portfolio and its international credit card portfolio.

This is all a result of Congressional mandates regarding the amount of money banks must keep on hand against outstanding debt. (By the way, this is the same Congress that "demands" that US banks lend more money. Okay.)

The sale of its $8.6 billion Canadian card portfolio to Toronto-Dominion Bank, better known as TD Bank around here, not only gives BofA some cash but it also helps reduce the amount of capital BofA has to put up against that unit.

That’s important because credit card portfolios are deemed risky by regulators and thus the bank would have to put up more capital against it as opposed to less risky portfolios.

With the way the Eurozone is collapsing, this is actually a great move -- the international sale, but Canada's economy is doing better than that of the US. I believe Canada still retains its AAA credit rating.

Oh, about those jobs moving to Canada. I assume, at most, it's but a handful. Operations were probably in Canada to begin with. But it mean slightly less BofA taxes going to the Obama administration. 

Unintended Consequences -- Evergreen Solar Declares Bankruptcy -- Not a Bakken Story

When oil went into free fall a couple of weeks ago, falling from $100 to just below $80, I opined that this was the end for wind and solar projects. Without huge subsidies, grants, or government mandates, wind and solar cannot compete with oil even when oil is priced at $100/bbl, much less when oil hits $80.

Today Evergreen Solar announces it has filed for bankruptcy to maximize stakeholder value. Okay. I cannot make this stuff up. 

“Chapter 11 will provide Evergreen Solar with the ability to maximize returns for our stakeholders through the proposed sale process,” Evergreen CEO Michael El-Hillow said in a statement. “Importantly, we expect to continue our technology development without interruption during Chapter 11 and the sale process.”

This was the company that received millions in government support, promised 800 new jobs, and moved most of those jobs to China, which, by the way, was a New York Times story.

Obviously the company filing for bankruptcy was not driven by the most recent drop in oil prices, but I find the timing of the announcement interesting. Obviously the board sat around the table, and saw like the rest of us, that plummeting oil prices were just making their job venture go from bad to worse. It certainly looks like the fall in oil prices was the catalyst. 

Updated Postings You May Have Missed -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

I update a large number of earlier posts that I doubt any one sees. I do it to keep track of things, some of which I may need in the future.

Here are some of the posts I updated today that I doubt anyone would have seen had I not placed them here:

If I were TransCanada, I would just lock it up with China 

Flaring 

Huge Three Forks well; something going on in the Three Forks formation; CLR things there may be a deeper pay zone within the TF.

OXY USA/Anschutz well with IP of 80, produces 106,000 bbls as of June, 2011, about two years after well completion. Only a 12-stage frack. Although it's a middle Bakken well, it's only a few miles north of Dickinson where there is excitement about the Three Forks. This well has paid for itself. Still producing at 1,500 bbls/month, and these wells, with continued decline rate, are expected to produce for 30 years. Over the next three decades, the price of oil will trend higher, the well will be re-fracked multiple times, other pay zones may be in play.

Idle Rambling -- 3Q11 Production -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

The oil companies know it, and some analysts know it, but I think the numbers are going to surprise a lot of folks when Bakken 3Q11 production is reported. Two things: the horrible weather this past winter and spring hindered well completions; that alone will not be a problem for 3Q11.

But, in addition, many companies are adding dedicated frack crews to their fracking schedule. It only takes a few days to frack a well, and I bet these fracking crews are moving from well to well, like locusts moving through a grain field. Lousy analogy, I know, 'cause everybody loves frack crews.

Daily activity reporting has not shown that yet; fifty percent of wells coming off confidential list are being reported as DRL status (not completed).

Contracted Rigs In the Bakken -- 225 -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Contracted rigs in the Bakken included 31 announced --> 225 rigs for the Bakken.

From slide 13 of the Oasis presentation at the Enercom Conference today.

Nabors: 45
H & P: 23
Gray Wolf/Precision: 20
Cyclone: 16
Patterson: 17
Ensign: 12
Bronco: 11
Unit: 12
Pioneer: 7
True: 4
Other: 27

Total: 194

Announced: 31

Total and Announced: 225

Enercom Conference -- Presentation Takeaways --Part IV -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Enercom Conference 

Part I

Part II

Part III

Part IV

Part V

Oasis

• Bakken acreage: 303,000 net acres
• Drilling program: 22 years of drilling inventory; 7 rig program; 9th by 2H11; will go to 12
• Production, daily: 7,800 boepd
• Biggest news: explains Oasis Well Services; saves $1 million/well
• Comment: drilling inventory -- 1,303 locations, 772 operated
• Comment: increasing stages --> higher EURs (BEXP suggested that some time ago)
• Comment: reaching total depth in 16 days
• Comment: $9 million wells; 36-stage; plug and perf
• Comment: takeaway exceeds production; 543K vs 426K

Whiting:

• Bakken acreage: 639,137
• Drilling program:
• Production, daily: 31,100 boepd
• Comment:
• Comment:
• Comment:

BEXP:

• Bakken acreage:
• Drilling program: 18
• Production, daily: 13,000 (3Q11)
• Comment: density pilot -- 5.5 wells in one spacing unit
• Comment: two dedicated frack crews; ratio needs to be at least one frack crew per rig
• Comment:

Denbury:

• Bakken acreage: 266,000
• Drilling program: 5 rigs; 6th late 3Q11; 7th by year-end
• Production, daily: 8,000 boe/d
• Comment: Re-fracking a great well; Franchuk 34-19SWH, original IP 2,006
• Comment: Capital/BOE -- $17.85; avg op cost over life/bbl -- $5.75
• Comment: Bakken inventory -- 350 million bbls

CLR:

• Bakken acreage:
• Drilling program:
• Production, daily:
• Comment:
• Comment:
• Comment:

GMXR:

• 35,524 (Enercom Conference, August 16, 2011)
• Previously: 26,087 net acres (North Dakota and Montana)
• New acreage a bit more southwest of original acreage, Billings County 
• Focus: Three Forks -- GMXR opines that TF may be superior to the Middle Bakken
• 1 rig in July 2011; to add 2nd rig in 1Q12

Other Input

Because I am not able to keep up with everything in this conference while I am traveling, I will place here items sent to me from other readers regarding the conference. I cannot vouch for everything below, but input comes from reliable sources.

CLR:

• 25 rigs by early 2012
• All wells should be 8 wells/spacing unit
• Average EUR: 603,000 (this was first stated about a month ago)
• Translates to 4.85 million boe/spacing unit
• 6 rigs on an Eco-Pad
• Cored 5 wells all the way through Bakken and TFS to hit the andrite zone below
• Charlette 2-22 is a discovery well
• Three additional pay zones below the Upper Three Forks?
• Good success in Elm Coulee; may expand the EUR of 403,000 boe
• 2 rigs in Montana's Elm Coulee; want to go to 3 or 4 more next year
• 900,000 acres; all but 80,000 de-risked
• Doing everything to hold by production

Legacy Oil and Gas presentation here -- a PDF file.

For Investors: Bakken and The Eagle Ford

From SeekingAlpha.com: the Bakken and Eagle Ford players to soar.

I guess I'm not the only one inappropriately exuberant. I see oil is up nicely today, and back toward $90. The dollar is lower.

By the way, this echoes my sentiment, where I posted my thoughts on issues coming out of the Enercom Conference:

Whether the oil company has increased its Bakken acreage? Bakken acreage is expensive, so if they've increased Eagle Ford acreage, that might be a trade-off. The Niobrara, in 2011, is not a trade-off for the Bakken in 2011. Companies not increasing Bakken acreage concern me. 

Incredible Story Over on Carpe Diem: Buying Power of Today's Youths

Link here.

Enercom Conference Kicks Off Today: Linked At Sidebar At The Rigt

A reminder: the Enercom Conference kicks off today.

I have a link at the top of the sidebar on the right.

When you get to that link, the site will have several more links right at the top. The first one will take you to the Enercom Conference website.

Just below that link are links to Part I, Part II, through Part V, that will provide additional information about the conference.

Parts I and II are up, but I have not yet posted Parts III through V, waiting for data to be added.

Unfortunately I will be traveling most of today, and will be very busy the rest of the week. My posting will be greatly hampered. I will do the best I can.

Oasis is presenting this a.m. (and it's kind of a pain to get access). They have a link to their Enercom presentation at their home page.

Granite Peak Development Popping Up Everywhere

I have to check this out if I find time later, but I believe both the industrial park/truck stop north of Williston and the Menards location west of Williston are development projects being put together by Granite Peak Development.

Now, I see another project being proposed by GPD, this one in Cheyenne, Wyoming:

Granite Peak Development special projects coordinator Dean Byrne says having a Union Pacific rail line could attract more business to the business park south of Cheyenne. Granite Development is the developer of Swan Ranch.

Burlington Northern Santa Fe is already building a site at the Swan Ranch.

Did Anyone Hear About the Oil Leak in the North Sea Near The Pristine Fjords of Norway?

No, I didn't think so.

The Norwegians ignored it, as did the US mainstream media.

Until this morning. 

For Investors, Nine Letters: BHI, SLB, HAL

PennEnergy reports that the number of rigs in this country has soared: 70 new rigs.

With various operators drilling the Bakken Shale, North Dakota added 14 rigs this week. An increase of 43 over the year, there are currently 175 rigs drilling in North Dakota – all of which are searching for oil. 

As you can see, the story is old. There are not 192 rigs drilling in North Dakota. It's possible they are not including the rigs that are drilling salt water disposal wells.