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Monday, August 8, 2011

Talk About Bullish! Listen to EOG CEO Mark Papa With Jim Cramer -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.

Data points:
  • No dry wells in the Bakken! Huge. Only other place in the world with no dry holes: Saudi Arabia
  • IPs range from 700 - 1,500; even the lowest IPs would be considered "monster" wells
  • EOG values their Bakken acreage at $35,000/acre
  • Average price EOG paid for Bakken acreage: $453
  • MRO recently paid $21,000/acre (I may have that wrong; I missed it on the broadcast and didn't listen to it again; if I'm wrong, send me a comment, and I will correct it.
But the thing that impressed CEO Mark Papa is that there are NO dry holes in the Bakken. I used to talk about that two years go when I first started this blog. No dry holes.

Forgotten? -- Tolley 8-9H, Mylo Monitor 1-- North Dakota, USA

I'm sure there is some explanation but it was not obvious in the well file.
  • 17719, PWI, Ballantyne Oil, Tolley 8-9H, Tolley field, Madison; no production data,
Okay, this well was spud on 9/17/2009 and according to the file report, yes, it did reach total depth, and was waiting to be "completed." Note this is a Madison well and a horizontal well.

So, waiting for completion since September 17, 2009. It's August 8, 2011, today. Perhaps this well has dropped into the Twilight Zone.

And some more:
  • 18491, DRL, Marathon, Mylo Monitor 1, Reunion Bay, Bakken; spud 1/13/10; a monitoring well; no production expected
  • 18550, dry, Sagebrush, Dieblier 25-16, Madison wildcat; spud 2/8/10; 

CBR? Paradigm Shift -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Update

After posting the story below, I went back to find another story that adds some background to crude-by-rail.  This was posted February 4, 2011:
According to a great Reuters story (sent to me by a reader), the producers are now increasing their rail loadings to ship highly sought after Bakken crude to points east and west to avoid Cushing, Oklahoma, where there is a glut. Highly sought after Bakken sweet oil? Enbridge announced recently it will ship only sweet oil going forward.
Original Post

Is there a paradigm shift staring us in the face?

Any pipeline oil spill, no matter how small, becomes a headline. Even the tiniest Enbridge pipeline spill gets national coverage.

At every step along the way, the Keystone XL project runs into adversity. Landowners as far away as Texas don't want the pipeline running through their property. The Keystone XL has become the poster child for environmentalists wanting to stop Big Oil.

Except for small pipeline projects, it seems there are more stories of pipelines not being approved than being built.

And then we get this story, posted earlier: by the end of this year, the region's railroads will be able to handle 400,000 bbls/day. I linked the story here with other stories of shipping crude-by-rail (CBR).

Yes, shipping by rail is slightly higher than shipping by pipeline, but there are some advantages.

I used to think that the big problem for Canadian oil sands oil is that the railroads don't run north / south. Something tells me that is no longer a problem. The Northern Plains Commerce Centre in Bismarck has access to the Canadian Pacific Railroad.

Regardless of how it works out, the issue of takeaway capacity for the Bakken seems to be a non-issue.

I think there may be a tectonic shift in the way oil folks are thinking about transporting Bakken oil, and it has to do with the railroads. Who would have guessed? Warren Buffett. He bought Burlington Northern Santa Fe in 2010.

For a nice PowerPoint presentation of North Dakota's CBR terminals, click here for NDIC's conference held earlier this year (February, 2011), a PDF file.

President Obama Says He Inherited "This" From the Previous Administration

Yup, he inherited a AAA credit rating from all three rating agencies.

[The president is on vacation. After all, it's August. And it's hot in Washington in August.]

Five (5) New Permits -- Another Great BEXP Well -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, August 8, 2011 --

Operators: Hess (2), XTO, Burlington Resources, and Whiting

Fields: Alkali Creek, Grinnell, Bell, and a wildcat.

Hess has a two-well pad permit.

BR has the wildcat in McKenzie County.

Take a look at that Bell field permit; remember, back in April, 2011, I posted a story about acreage in Bell oil field going for $9,000/acre.

As usual, when other operators are waiting to get their wells fracked, BEXP is getting them fracked and reporting great IPs:
  • #19930, 2,670, BEXP, Russell 10-3 1-H, Painted Woods, Bakken

Update on CBR -- Huge Story -- Is the Keystone XL Irrelevant? -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.

CBR: crude-by-rail.
North Dakota oil producers are making greater use of rail tanker cars to send their crude to refineries.
At least 10 railroad oil loading terminals are either operating or planned for western North Dakota.
By the end of the year they'll be capable of shipping close to 400,000 barrels of oil each day.
NDIC conference on crude-by-rail, February, 2011, a PDF file. 

For newbies, click on the tag "Rail" at the bottom of the blog for other stories on CBR.

Enbridge -- A Pipeline Company -- Will Go CBR

Railroads Ramp Up to Serve the Bakken

BNI Update

The New Paradigm is Rail -- Harold Hamm

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners to Enter the Bakken

CBR: Epping

CBR: COLT

CBR Update: November, 2010

NuStar/EOG building 70,000 CBR facility in Louisiana to handle shale oil
NuStar and EOG have entered into a definitive agreement to jointly develop and own a 70,000-barrel-a-day unit train offloading facility in Louisiana to support crude oil transport from various US shale plays.

The rail offloading facility will be built at NuStar's crude oil terminal in St. James, Louisiana, facilitating movement and storage of crude oil production from the Bakken and Eagle Ford Shales, as well as other emerging oil shale plays in the US.

The 8-million-barrel St. James crude oil terminal has interconnectivity to major crude infrastructure, including onshore and offshore pipeline systems, as well as marine, truck and rail access.

Bismarck Negotiating With The Second Largest Cement Manufacturer In The World? -- Northern Plains Commerce Centre -- North Dakota, USA

Chaos is self organizing.

But before getting to the story, here are some dots that need connecting:
  • During my last visit to the North Dakota oil patch this past summer I wondered about the hodge-podge of activity that seemed chaotic.
  • Then, and completely separate, we all remember the day the Williams County abruptly and unilaterally shut down all truck traffic on county roads. (That didn't last long; a phone call from the Tesoro refinery in Bismarck ended that debate.)
  • Recently the state announced oil impact funds for villages, towns, and cities affected by the oil boom. Tioga was to receive almost $8 million.
  • A recent article suggested that the Bakken may be the largest industrial park in the United States.
Now, that you have the dots connected, quick, name the multinational industrial corporation that is the face of the Bakken. Exxon? Halliburton? Chevron? Name the multibillionaires running the show.

No, the face of the Bakken is Continental Resources, until recently headquartered in Enid, Oklahoma, the ninth-largest city in Oklahoma, one of the least populous states in the country. (CLR has announced it is moving to Tulsa, OK, the second-largest city in Oklahoma.)

CLR, with a market cap of under $10 billion, is not in the same league as Exxon or Halliburton, and yet, we are being told the Bakken may be the largest industrial park in the United States, the second-largest industrial park in North America, second to the Alberta oil sands.

And who are the folks running the show with regard to policies and regulations? County commissioners. With all due respect to these hard-working county commissioners, their county commission work is a part-time job.

I was in Williston the day the county commissioners put a moratorium on all county road truck traffic.

I had heard that the state was ready to distribute up to $100 million to villages, towns and cities, mostly for highway and sewer and water upgrades.

Again, with all due respect, think about a few part-time folks in Tioga charged with contracting $8 million for roads, sewer, and water.

My first thought: the state should have contracted with a multinational industrial corporation with experience in multi-billion dollar industrial parks. Like Halliburton.

Of course, that's not gonna happen. An opportunity lost.

But maybe we are starting to see some chaotic activity that is organizing.

This is a long, long story, but I think it is worth following.

It is my understanding that in 2008, the Bismarck city fathers put together an industrial park to partner with Bobcat, with the expectation that Bismarck would privatize the industrial park and Bobcat would have first option to buy.
The Northern Plains Commerce Centre, completed in 2008, was designed to be an industrial park and intermodal facility to handle Bobcat Co.'s overseas shipments of freight containers, with rail service connected to ocean transportation. The city provided $5 million from its economic development Vision Fund to build and develop it.
On April 27, 2011 (just a few months ago), The Bismarck Tribune ran a story that said the city was ready to privatize the industrial park (same link as above).

The industrial park is huge, in geographic size, and potential, as a transportation hub at the southern entrance to the Bakken, and as a stretch, the eastern entrance to the Niobrara and the Powder River Basin.
The Northern Plains Commerce Centre (NPCC) encompasses 243 acres. Offering both rail and non-rail served industrial sites, the NPCC has access to Canadian Pacific Railroad and the Burlington Northern Santa Fe.

Highway access to I-94 is less than 5 miles on roads that were designed for heavy haul and dimensional cargo.

The park is a rail served industrial park offering rail and non-rail served sites for expansion and new manufacturing/distribution. The NPCC Transload offers transloading of rebar, pipe, poles, pilings, sheet steel, lumber, precast concrete structures.  
Privatization has begun.
Bismarck and Tubular Transport & Logistics, a rail transloading and distribution company based in Rifle, Colorado, recently approved an 18-month lease agreement of $184,500.
The initial lease-to-buy contract includes seven acres now, and an option to buy another 29 acres down the road.
TTL will unload and deliver rebar lumber and rebar, and broker tubular material to the the Bakken formation. It started operating on the NPCC site on Aug. 1.
Now, it gets interesting.

Today, The Bismarck Tribune breaks the story today that Bismarck city commissioners are going into closed session to begin discussions on how to negotiate with the second largest construction company in the world, LaFarge, which already has an operation in the park.

Here's the interesting quote, from Brad Beyer, territory manager for the North Dakota division of the company:
"We (LaFarge) have a lease with the NPCC," Beyer said. He said now that the NPCC is leased with TTL, "We want to see what our options are."
Here's another interesting quote that ends the Tribune story:
Neither [the city] nor Beyer would reveal how many acres were being considered in the lease with LaFarge. Beyer said the company will announce that later if a lease agreement is reached.
Why is that interesting? Like TTL above, are we talking a lease-to-buy option? Why is the city still talking leases when the city says they want to privatize the park? Is LaFarge big enough to run the entire park? Would they want to?
The point is this: at some point, the North Dakota oil patch needs to see some big name, well-capitalized, international corporations that are willing and able to coordinate the hodge-podge of chaotic activity that is occurring in the western part of the state. 
By the way, the second paragraph of that Bismarck Tribune story:
LaFarge is the second largest construction company in the world, said Brad Beyer, territory manager for the North Dakota division of the company on Monday.
According to Wiki, LaFarge is the second largest cement manufacturer in the world, not the world's second largest construction company. Was that a typo? Did Beyer misspeak? Is LaFarge the second largest construction in the world? That would put it behind Halliburton, I would think. LaFarge has only a $8 billion market cap, so I think "second-largest construction company" is incorrect. (HAL is $40 billion market cap.)

Remember, in 1864 Lafarge signed its first international contract for the delivery of 110,000 tonnes of lime to the Suez Canal construction project.
Bottom line: this could be just one more story of hodge-podge chaotic growth in the oil patch, or it could be huge. I'm hoping for the latter, but most likely the former. 

For Investors Only: Before Panic Sets In ... It's Only Make Believe ... Somewhere Over the Rainbow, Bluebirds Fly ...

... remember, most of the Bakken companies hedge their sales, and contracts are already set for the next six months.

Yes, new contracts will be affected by the recent plunge in oil prices, but something tells me, these oil company CEOs know how to manage this.

The world is not (yet) coming to an end.

Things will look much, much better after the president speaks

I didn't know which video to post, so I posted both. Take your pick, depending on the mood you are in:


Over the Rainbow, Israel K+12



It's Only Make Believe, Conway Twitty

There are perhaps better videos of Conway and this song, but this one seemed more appropriate today.


How Not To Spend a Wonderful Weekend in August -- Not a Bakken Story

Link here.
The losses came after Obama administration officials spent the weekend trying to discredit Standard & Poor’s, with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner saying Sunday that the agency’s officials had shown “terrible judgment” and “a stunning lack of knowledge” in approving the downgrade.
I can think of better ways to spend the weekend.

["The losses" refer to the continued stock market meltdown, losing 500 points on Friday, and another 400 points Monday. Numbers rounded and are dynamic.]

New CO2 Plant Near Odessa, Texas; Whiting To Buy the CO2 -- Chesapeake Ramps Up In Ohio -- Not a Bakken Story

Link here.
For enhancing oil recovery, Whiting Petroleum Corp. signed a 15-year agreement to buy carbon dioxide from a planned Permian basin coal-fueled power plant at Penwell, Texas, near Odessa. 
The sellers of the CO2 are Summit Power Group LLC and Blue Strategies LLC. Summit expects to start construction of the plant by yearend and commence operations in late 2014 or early 2015. 
Whiting plans to purchase 80 MMcfd of compressed the CO2 during the first 5 years of the plant's operation, which is about 60% of the CO2 that the plant will capture. After 5 years, Whiting will gradually buy less CO2 although it has an option to extend purchases.
Data point:
  • In the Permian basin fields, each 6 Mcf of CO2 injected can recover about 1 bbl of oil, according to the companies selling the CO2.
Note: The Oil and Gas Journal uses the following style,  CO2, but I will continue with this style, CO2,  even when linking articles.

I know it's because I am always looking through my oily-covered glasses, but it certainly seems if this administration a) had the optimism of Ronald Reagan; b) believed in America's greatness; c) understood the importance of the private sector; d) embraced big business, including Big Oil, Big Pharma and all the rest; e) really did fund shovel-ready jobs; f) really did have a balanced approach when it came to environmental protection; the US would not have the problems we are experiencing today, nor would our credit rating have been downgraded.

But I digress. But it seems all the positive news these days is coming out of the US energy business; here's another great story for the folks who live in Ohio -- Chesapeake is beginning to ramp up activity in the Utica. Tell me that Ohioans shouldn't be getting excited once they start seeing those jobs. Hey, even some jobs cleaning up industrial waste, some planned, some not planned, but all part of industry.

Feel free to comment on Whiting's news story but I generally don't get into discussions revolving around my rants and raves.

187 Rigs: New Record -- Up By Three Overnight -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

New record for active rigs drilling in North Dakota: 187.

The number has been oscillating between 181 and 184 for the past several days; yesterday it stayed at 184 all day. Then this a.m. "anonymous" wrote to tell me it hit 185.

When I checked the NDIC site, it had gone to 187.

You can see history of rigs and milestones by clicking here. It is also linked at the sidebar at the right, under "Data."