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Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Some Believe IEA Could Dip Into Strategic Petroleum Reserves Periodically to Stem Price Increases

Link here.

I opined that the IEA would do exactly that -- dip into reserves periodically to try to stem prices. Now that the IEA has done it once, it becomes easier to do it again, except for a few inconvenient truths:
[One analyst] believes the IEA and U.S. Department of Energy could dip back into reserves to try to control rising prices. The IEA said the initial release was to make up for lost Libyan production. But [one pundit] said the criticism against the move was significant enough to crimp further actions.

"It would be like intervention in he currency markets in the 1980s. The intended purpose was to psychologically drive down prices and every time they intervened it almost expressed their desperation...it would be like putting gasoline on a burning fire," said [one analyst].
But a few inconvenient truths haven't stopped folks from doing crazy things in the past. 

Miles City, Montana, Bucking Horse Sale -- Annual Event -- A Bit Wet This Year -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With the Bakken

Miles City, Montana, about 175 miles southwest of Williston, North Dakota (heart of the Bakken).


Miles City, Montana, annual bucking horse sale


The best question: "What do the horses get out of it?"

The cowboy was initially caught off guard, but then came back with a great answer.

Week 26: June 25 -- July 1, 2011

Michael Filloon's Five-Part Series on Marathon's Activity in the Eagle Ford and How It Relates to the Bakken

Unitization: Getting Closer in the Bakken

Michael Filloon's Four-Part Series on How to Profit in the Bakken on This Pullback

KOG Closes on Newly Acquired Bakken Acreage

Carpe Diem Highlights North Dakota's Booming Economy

Is the Spearfish Formation All That Great: A Look At the Newburg Spearfish Wells

Lost Bridge Oil Field Update: #55 on List of Fields Updated

Abraxas Provides a Bakken Operational Update

Demand for Natural Gas Starting to Exceed Infrastructure Capability

The Real Reason Environmentalists Hate Fracking: They Were Blindsided

A Nice OXY USA Well in Fayette Field -- 22,000 Barrels The First Month


North Dakota's Legacy Fund: A Big "Thank You" To The Oil Industry

Deepest Oil Well Drilled in North Dakota

Open Range Petroleum: A New Operator in the Bakken

Whiting's Obrigewitch 21-17TFH: 18,000 Barrels The First Month

Metrics For Tracking The Bakken Operators: CLR Not On The List


MDU Acquires Another 20,000 Net Acres In The Bakken

North Dakota State Lease Auction Results, May, 2011

Hampton Inn and Suites Website For New Williston Location

Another Housing Subdivision for Williston: 2,295 New Housing Units

BEXP Opens 14,000 Square-Foot, Multi-Million Dollar Regional Headquarters

Samson Oil and Gas Could Acquire Another 90,000 Net Acres in the Bakken

Rigzone Article on Backlog of Fracking in the Bakken

Good News: Flooding Around Williston -- Heart of the Bakken -- Receding

Link here (regional link will break).
The Missouri River near Williston has dropped below 30 feet and is expected to decrease during the next few days.

According to National Weather Service data, the level was 29.8 feet this morning, still nearly two feet above the previous all-time high of 28 feet set in 1912, but not high enough to cause major flood problems in the Williston area.

Despite Flooding, Two Pipelines Under the Missouri Still Deemed Safe -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here (regional link will break).
State Water Commission employees said that two pipelines under the Missouri River have not been harmed by riverbed scouring caused by flooding.
“Our concern was that those pipelines would be exposed and might fail,” said Bruce Engelhardt, engineer with the Water Commission. “What we found was that there’s still plenty of cover over the pipelines.”
NuStar Energy has an underground pipeline carrying petroleum products from the Tesoro refinery. Williston Basin Interstate Pipeline Co. has another that transports natural gas. Both cross under the Missouri north of Bismarck and south of the Misty Waters Marina, according to Kelly Casteel of the Water Commission.


Eight (8) New Permits -- Eco-Pad Results -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, July 5, 2011 --

Operators: Samson Resources (2), BEXP (2), Dakota-3 (WMB), Whiting, Oasis, Enerplus

Fields: Antelope, Ragged Butte, Blooming Prairie, Sanish, Alger, Moccasin Creek

The two BEXP wells will be on the same pad in Ragged Butte (McKenzie County); likewise, the two Samson Resources wells will be on the same pad, Blooming Prairie, Divide County.

Whiting's permit is in its cash cow, the Sanish.

Enerplus is in Moccasin Creek, the reservation.

Producing wells completed include (an Eco-Pad):
  • 19020, 744, CLR, Meadowlark 3-6H, Dunn County
  • 19021, 879, CLR, Ckachenko 3-31H, Dunn County
  • 19022, 453, CLR, Meadowlark 2-6H, Dunn County
  • 19023, 726, CLR, Skachenko 2-31H, Dunn County
ad well as:
  • 19167, 517, Oasis, Holmes 5601 44-32H, Williams County
In addition, another nine (9) wells came off the confidential list, but no production data provided except for one, which is not worth noting (19862, 86, CLR, Flor 24-10NH, Slope County) except for the fact that it was a North Red River B well, and not a Bakken.

This may or may not be interesting: a change of operator from EOG to Zenergy (was this based on a NDIC hearing? I don't know):
  • 20286, Zenergy, Hardscrabble 2-0112H, Lot 2, S1-153N-103W (spelling error in the original report)

Two (2) New Permits -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report, July 1, 2011 --

Operators: Hess and Oasis.

Fields: Big Butte and Cottonwood.

Otherwise, a "nothing" report.

The Cottonwood field was the one "discovered" by Fidelity and then "sold" to Oasis.

For Investors Only -- Of Several, Large Cap, International Oil Companies, Two "US" Companies See Double-Digit Revenue Growth for 2011

Link here.

The two "US" companies are XOM and COP.

I certainly hope they don't set new records; we won't hear the end of it for weeks.

SPR Release -- Bids -- Companies and Average Price -- $107/BBL

I think folks will find this surprising: folks are willing to pay $107/bbl of oil from the American strategic petroleum reserve, and then pay for storing it in tankers off shore. Still wanna bet that oil under $95 is the price we will see by Labor Day?

Link here.

Note that a bank (Barclays) is bidding on 200,000 bbls; JPMorgan is bidding on 1.5 million. Since I don't recognize either as traditional oil companies, perhaps Barclays and JPMorgan are two of those "speculators" everyone complains about:

The bids total 30.64 million barrels of oil, with the average bid of 
$107.20 per barrel.
 
COMPANY                    VOLUME (barrels)     BID ($/barrel)
Valero Energy Corp            6.90 mln           105.62-109.76
Vitol Inc                     4.00 mln                  108.05
Shell Trading USA             3.65 mln           105.70-108.88
ConocoPhillips                2.10 mln           106.29-107.88
Plains Marketing              2.08 mln           106.78-107.78
Hess Corp                     2.00 mln           105.01-107.54
Marathon                      2.00 mln           105.80-107.80
ExxonMobil Corp               1.51 mln           107.34-108.94
JPMorgan                      1.50 mln                  105.33
Sunoco                        1.40 mln                  106.78
Tesoro                        1.20 mln                  107.08
Trafigura                     1.10 mln           105.20-107.20
Murphy Oil                    500,000                   106.73
BP PLC                        500,000                   105.04
Barclays                      200,000                   104.98
 

I assume the oil companies are bidding on this oil for their refineries, which if true, a) they expect to pay more than $107/bbl in the future; and/or, b) they know they will be short that amount of light oil in the near future.

If they thought they would be paying more than $107/bbl in the future, I would assume they would be bidding for more, unless storage costs were a limiting factor. Thus, my hunch is that refinery managers anticipate a light oil shortfall in the near future. I'm curious how others read this.


Call me old-fashioned but I just don't see folks willing to pay $107 for a barrel of oil, and then storing it in off-shore tankers until used, if they thought oil was going to be selling for $96 in a month. But then, maybe I'm missing something. 


From their website, Trafigura:
Established in 1993 as a private company, Trafigura is the world’s third largest independent oil trader and the second largest independent trader in the non-ferrous concentrates market. It has access to approximately US$24 billion in credit facilities, with investments in industrial assets around the world of more than US$1.9 billion.

Trafigura handles every element involved in the sourcing and trading of crude oil, petroleum products, renewable energies, metals, metal ores, coal and concentrates for industrial consumers.
Some might call Trafigura a "speculator" but their bid is actually at the low end of those on the list. Hmmm.



Casablanca

Wow: SSN Hits The Big Time -- Motley Fools Put The Spotlight on SSN -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA -- Stockyard Field

Link here.
Samson Oil and Gas got on many energy investors' radars last year when it sold roughly 22,700 net acres of its Niobrara shale acreage to Chesapeake Energy. The deal was for $74 million, which valued the land at more than $3,000 per net acre.

This deal provided breathing room for Samson, which had less than $6 million in cash and a book value of just $25 million going into the deal. Flush with cash after the transaction, Samson proceeded to plan the development of its remaining assets.

Samson's main asset is its Hawk Springs project, which includes 16,391 net acres in the Niobrara shale and numerous targets in its conventional Permian/Pennsylvanian oil play. In addition to the Hawk Springs project, Samson also has a 1,200-net-acre position in the Bakken shale in the North Stockyard Field in North Dakota.

SeekingAlpha: Introduction To Investing in the Bakken -- North Dakota, USA

Part I: Introduction To Investing in the Bakken.
Part II: Three "leading" companies in the Bakken.

This is a great introduction for newbies, and a great review for "old hands."

I agree with most of the article, though the author favors companies in the Bakken who look for high IPs, and strong production the first year (like BEXP) and quick payback, as opposed to long, steady production. I've blogged about this before.

All things being equal, I prefer BEXP's strategy, although time will tell if that strategy is the best. IPs and production numbers the first six months are only two data points among many in the oil patch.

The writer discussed three "leading" companies in the Bakken: CLR, WLL, and BEXP.

It seems like "everyone" is now writing on the Bakken. Most limit themselves to the oil exploration and production companies. It would be nice to see a few more articles on oil service companies in the Bakken. 

For Investors Only -- KOG Up 8 Percent Today -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Today, July 5, 2011 (all numbers rounded) (idle chatter on a relatively quiet day):

SSN: down 1.4%

KOG: up 8.1%
OAS: up 2.7%
NOG: up 1.7%

BEXP: up 1.2%
WLL: up 0.7%
CLR: up 1.2%

ENB: up 0.6%

EOG: up 0.2%
HESS: up 0.5%

XOM: down 0.5%
CVX: up 1%
COP: flat

New Data Points Regarding the SPR Release -- Represented Only 11 Hours of Global Consumption

All updates regarding the SPR release will be found here: SPR Tapped, which for now is linked at the sidebar at the right. It won't stay there forever.

The AP story today has a number of data points, some of which I "predicted" earlier. (Note: I may have misinterpreted the story. From the story "IEA will actually release only about two-thirds of what was originally promised." I take this to be only about two-thirds of 60 million barrels, but I may be wrong on this. If this is clarified, I will correct the post. It won't change the crux of the story.)

1. This blog has consistently maintained that Saudi can't scale up to meet growing demand. From the AP story today:
Independent oil analysts say prices still could head lower this year. But some think IEA's announcement speaks volumes about its expectations for world oil supplies.

"I think it's an admission from them that Saudi Arabia might not be able to produce enough oil on its own" to meet increased world demand, analyst Stephen Schork said.
2. I posted that I doubted the full amount allowed to be released would actually be released.
Goldman Sachs also pointed out late last week that IEA will actually release only about two-thirds of what was originally promised.

Goldman analyst David Greely said about one-third of the 60 million barrels will come from limiting the amount that countries are required to keep in emergency supplies. 
I was right, but for the wrong reason. With American storage tanks full, I did not think that the American SPR would be tapped to full extent allowed. I never thought that folks would actually take SPR oil to store in off-shore tankers betting on higher prices by the end of the year.

3. I posted that I doubted countries around the world had enough oil in their SPRs to release as much as they were allowed (again, I interpret the story this way, but I could be wrong).
To repeat: Goldman analyst David Greely said about one-third of the 60 million barrels will come from limiting the amount that countries are required to keep in emergency supplies. 
4. With 60 million barrels representing 17 hours of global consumption, I posted that the release should have negligible effect on the price of oil.
Since the oil industry tends to keep much more on hand than what's required, Greely said that the new limits will have an "almost negligible impact on oil prices."
5. I found this interesting:
Barclays sees China, India, Saudi Arabia and Brazil as the main sources for demand growth.
Everyone knows that China and India will increase oil consumption. My hunch is that most folks are not aware that Saudi Arabia's demand has also increased, but this has been reported for the past couple of years (if not longer). Brazil is a bit of a surprise to me. I see Brazil as a country with a growing economy, but not to the extent that it would be put in the China/India equation. Further, with Brazil developing its own oil resources, I thought their demand/supply would be a wash.

6. But the opening paragraph of this story is completely ludicrous:
Some major investment banks are still betting that oil prices will grow next year despite an emergency injection of crude on world markets from the U.S. and other countries.
The emergency injection represents 17 hours of global consumption. If spread out over time, one could get sixty days of additional supply (one million bbls for next sixty days), and if the world only needed a half million bbls/day, "they" could stretch it out 120 days, but even that barely gets us to the new year.

By the way, that "17 hours of global consumption" was based on the full 60 million bbls being released. As noted in the story above, it is estimated that only two-thirds of the 60 million will be released, about 40 million barrels, about 11 hours of global consumption.

Slow Day in the Oil Patch (As Far As News Goes) -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

It's a quiet day in the oil patch, as far as news goes (daily activity report later this afternoon), so will post a note I started a few days ago. Nothing new for regular readers, but gives newbies an idea of what the Williston Basin has to offer.

With Michael Filloon talking about the Eagle Ford (South Texas) commanding higher lease bonuses due to multiple payzones, it is interesting to look at multiple payzones in the Williston Basin. Some examples, and, I agree, some of them may be one-offs, but there are plenty of other examples:
  • 1171, 333, Petro-Hunt, CMNU B-205, spudded 8/25/1956; 754,319 bbls (no production since September, 2010, and now inactive. Interestingly enough, it appears that it was still producing about 300 bbls/month for years when it was taken off-line; something tells me we will see this well active again; a Madison well
  • 14213, 3,357, Denbury Onshore (originally Trans Texas Gas), Dinsdale 2-4; IP test date 12/30/1996; to date this well has produced 4,757,010 bbls, currently producing about 5K/month; a Lodgepole well  
  • 16059, 729, Petro-Hunt, USA 2D-3-1H, IP test date: 10/10/2006; to date this well has produced 1,148,681 bbls of oil; this well produced greater than 1,000 bbls/day as late as 2008, exceeding its IP; a Three Forks well; be sure to read the comment at this post;
  • 5323, 917, True Oil, LLC, Burlington Northern 42-27, spudded 7/9/73; to date this well has produced 3,238,715 bbls of oil; a Madison well
  • 2361, 44, Hess, Newburg-Spearfish-Charles Unit K-713, 777,234, spudded in 1959, still producing nicely, on a pump; a Spearfish well
To date the Madison has accounted for 49 percent of all the oil taken from North Dakota oil fields.  The Bakken will easily surpass the Madison over time, but like the Eagle Ford, there are multiple pay zones in the Williston Basin.

See cumulative oil production by formation, 2009, and 2010.

    For Investors Only -- COP a Takeover Target?

    Link here.
    The value of U.S. mergers and acquisitions jumped 39% during the first five months of this year, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers. Companies are sitting on $1.1 trillion in cash, which suggests the second half of the year will see plenty of deals, too.

    Last year ConocoPhillips repurchased $3.7 billion worth of its shares and this year it's expected to spend $6 billion. ConocoPhillips trades at 1.5 times the book value of its assets, versus 2.7 times book for Exxon Mobil Corporation, which is about four times the company's size by stock market value. Shares of ConocoPhillips carry a larger dividend yield than most other big energy producers--3.6%.
    I personally don't see it. Couldn't get past US regulators. Maybe different if foreign buyer.

    Otherwise slow day in the oil patch. COP has a play in the Bakken through BR.

    For Investors Only -- MDU -- A Candidate for Restructuring? Similar to Williams, Marathon?

    Link here.
    Another diversified energy company that might one day find itself under pressure by investors to split up is MDU Resources. The company operates an exploration and production business, an aggregates and construction business and also owns seven regulated utilities that are involved in electricity, gas distribution or pipelines operations.

    MDU Resources operates its exploration and production business under the name Fidelity Exploration & Production Company. The company is active in various plays throughout the Rocky Mountain and Midcontinent area, including the Bakken and Niobrara formations.