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Friday, June 17, 2011

Seven (7) New Permits -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Daily activity report -- June 17, 2011 ---

Drillers: BEXP (2), Slawson (2), Hess, Petro-Hunt, Burlington Resources

Fields: Sandrocks, Poe, Dublin, Truax, Van Hook, and a wildcat.

BR has the wildcat in McKenzie Country.

Meanwhile, producing wells that were completed, included:
  • 18624, 1,656, Oasis, Odin Jorgenson 5502 44-8H, Williams
  • 19337, 772, Whiting, Mann 21-18TFH, Stark -- a nice TF well in southwestern North Dakota

So Much For Global Warming Causing Coastal Flooding

Link here.

Not only has data been manipulated, but even without the padding, the predictions of US-flooded coastlines are facetious.

The research center padding this data was caught red-handed, has admitted it, and has a non-global-warming explanation:
Steve Nerem, the director of the widely relied-upon research center said that his group padded the 0.3 millimeters per year to the actual sea level measurements because land masses, still rebounding from the ice age, are rising and increasing the amount of water that oceans can hold.

"We have to account for the fact the ocean basins are actually getting slightly bigger -- water volume is expanding," he said, a phenomenon they cal glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). 
I can't make this stuff up.

ObamaCare Will Stop Accepting Waiver Requests After September, 2011

Link here.

Even before reading the article, my first thought was that the union presidents had all notified the president that no more unions would be submitting waivers, and there it was, in the third paragraph:
The government is closing down the program because there's no need for new applications, Steve Larsen, director of the Center for Consumer Information and Insurance Oversight, said during a call with reporters. "For the vast majority of plans that would need a waiver, those are the ones that would have applied and did apply this year," said Larsen, whose office is implementing the law's regulations on health insurers.
In 2014, the waivers expire. Yup.

Update on Wells on "DRL" Status

Regular followers of this blog know that I post results of all wells that come off the confidential list on a daily basis. These can be found on the NDIC daily activity report. I post the results here (for the current quarter; I will start a new page for the next quarter).  Wells come off the confidential on weekend days also but are not reported until Monday, so Mondays usually have a number of new wells reporting.

Unfortunately, due to the backlog in fracking more and more wells coming off the confidential list are still in DRL status, waiting to be completed, fracked, and tested.

When the wells are completed, and tested, a quirk in the system does not result in them being reported again on the daily activity report. I go back periodically and see if these wells have been completed and tested.

Here are the most recent wells that were reported in DRL status but have now been completed, fracked, and tested.

It's a pretty representative sample.

19185, 1,377, XTO, Alwin Federal 12X-19, Lost Bridge, Bakken
19152, 2,538, Oasis, Hagen 5792 44-31H, Wildcat, Bakken; 2,538 bbls in first four days of production
19408, 813, MRO, Trinka 41-18H, Bailey, Bakken
19104, 1,203, Helis, Henderson 16-34/27H, Grail, Bakken
19390, 2,904, SM, Broderson 13-35H, Siverston, Bakken
18993, 884, MRO, Rosa Benz 44-23H, Bailey, Bakken
19477, 435, ERF, Eagles Nest 34-44H, McGregory Buttes, Bakken, 30K in first first 37 days
19187, 510, XTO, Elaine Federal 12X-19, Lost Bridge, Bakken (tested 5/8/11 -- no production data yest)
19486, 766, Slawson, Genesis 2-13H, Van Hook, Bakken
19635, 217, Newfield, Christensen 159-102-17-20-1H, Wildcat, Bakken

For Investors: CHK Increases Dividends; Expects More Of The Same In Coming Years

Link here.
Chesapeake said Monday it raised its common-stock dividend by 17%, marking the natural-gas company's first increase since June 2008.

Chesapeake Energy, the second-largest U.S. natural-gas producer after Exxon Mobil Corp., joins a long list of companies that have increased payouts to shareholders in recent months using stockpiled cash. Last month, Chesapeake Energy reported that it swung to a first-quarter loss on steep derivatives losses and a 42% drop in revenue as energy prices declined, while production increased from a year ago.
The story suggests that the announced dividend increase was the board's answer to dissatisfied shareholders.  

Joblessness: Headlines Can Be Hard To Decipher; Drilling Down Into Data -- Some Rates Improve Because Folks Departing States Where Unemployment Unlikely to Improve (Michigan)

Update

June 18, 2011: A bigger story is being missed in the raw unemployment numbers. More and more states are actually losing jobs. When jobs are lost, folks drop out of the job search market and are not counted. To be counted as unemployed, one has to be actively searching for a job. California, Michigan, and Massachusetts, for example, shed jobs in May. Unemployment rates may or may not start to improve, but job losses are becoming the real, if under-reported story.

[Moments after posting the above, I came across this link: companies are leaving California in record numbers.
Today, California is experiencing the fastest rate of disinvestment events based on public domain information, closure notices to the state, and information from affected employees in the three years since a specialized tracking system was put into place. Out-of-state economic development officials are traveling through the state to alert frustrated business owners and corporate executives to their friendlier business climate versus California's hostility toward commercial enterprises.]

Original Post

The headline: Unemployment falls in fewer than half US states.

Okay.

The headline is right; it's just hard to sort out first time through (for me).
  • Unemployment rates rose in 13 states.
  • Unemployment rates remained unchanged in 13 states
  • Unemployment rates fell in 24 states.
In April, 39 states reported that unemployment rates fell.

With regard to jobs:
  • 27 states lost jobs
  • 22 states had a net gain in jobs
Compared to April: much worse. In April, 42 states gained jobs.

So, the AP headline "unemployment falls in fewer than half US states" could have easily been written that "unemployment picture not improving, perhaps worsening."

Other notes:
California, New York and Pennsylvania reported large job losses, partly reversing gains earlier this year. California said employers cut 29,200 jobs last month, with big losses in professional and business services.

New York said employers cut 24,700 jobs and Pennsylvania reported a drop of 14,200 jobs.
And, I love the modifiers -- note "sharply":
Nevada had the highest unemployment rate among the states, at 12.1 percent, though that was down sharply from April's 12.5 percent. California had the second-highest rate, at 11.7 percent, down from 11.8, followed by Rhode Island at 10.9 percent, which was unchanged.
If I did the arithmetic correctly, a 0.4 percent drop from 12.5 to 12.1 percent represents a 3 percent drop from 12.5. That's hardly "sharply" in my mind. I doubt the 11.8 vs 11.7 is either statistically significant or reproducible.

Elsewhere, from Reuters:
For most of the recession, Michigan held the highest unemployment rate in the country. Even though the state's rate ebbed over the last year, it still edged up to 10.3 percent in May. Its labor force -- the employable population in the state -- lost 6,000 people over the month.

"The state's labor market situation improved significantly throughout 2010 into early 2011," said Rick Waclawek, director of the state's labor information bureau, in a statement. "However, since February 2011, Michigan's unemployment rate has been essentially flat while payroll jobs declined slightly."

North Dakota again held the lowest jobless rate of 3.2 percent, followed by Nebraska at 4.1 percent, and South Dakota at 4.8 percent. Since the recession began in 2007, the commodity-rich states have held the lowest jobless rates.
It was also interesting to note that some unemployment rates decreased, not because more people found work, but because folks who could be employed departed the state, decreasing the employment pool:
In May, those states were joined by New Hampshire, where the unemployment rate was 4.8 percent. The "Granite State," currently a battleground for those vying to become the Republican presidential candidate, probably benefited from its shrinking labor force.

According to the New Hampshire labor department, the number of employed residents increased by 7,730 from May 2010, while the total labor force decreased by 2,320 from May 2010.

2nd Annual Bakken Infrastructure Finance and Development Summit: October, 2011, Denver

 I just received this announcement: the 2nd Annual Bakken Infrastructure Finance and Development Summit is scheduled for October 24 - 26, 2011, in Denver, Colorado.

Link to the website here

Water Management: Canadian Shale Gas -- Not A North Dakota Bakken Story

This is a bit off-topic, but some readers may be interested.

The Shale Gas Water Management Canada 2011 will be held at the Calgary Convention Center, September 21 - 22, 2011.

I assume their website will provide some interesting presentations.

SeekingAlpha: Five Attractive Buys in the Oil Patch

Link here.

Companies mentioned: OAS, NOG, DNR, Swift Energy (SFY), and Clayton Williams Energy (CWEI).

The first two are pretty much pure Bakken play; the third (DNR) has broader interests (both geographically and business model).

I am not less familiar with the last two.

The author adds this last paragraph:
Lastly, you can find other players in the field with oil rich holdings such as Whiting Petroleum Corp., Continental Resources, Inc., and Brigham Exploration Company that are certainly worth a closer look.
All of these have huge Bakken exposure.  I still think accumulating shares in Bakken-related companies during these pullbacks will pay big dividends five years down the road.

Carpe Diem and Ethanol

Link here.
MP: Paul Gigot of the WSJ pointed out a decade ago that "ethanol is produced by mixing corn with our tax dollars." Hopefully, given the reality of our worsening fiscal situation, the Senate vote today signals that taxpayer funding of ethanol will eventually end, and ethanol will have to survive on its economic and scientific merits.  Simply put, without tax dollars, the current political-motivated recipe for producing so much corn ethanol is doomed.