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Friday, February 18, 2011

"X" Marks the Spot -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

This is just an excuse to embed LeAnn Rimes "Blue" into the blog.

There are so many stories that come out of the Bakken.

I was taking a look at the Blue Buttes oil field, which I have profiled before.  But tonight I noticed something I had not seen before.

In sections 20 --> 19 (1280-acre spacing) there are two long horizontal wells, #18726 and #17149. The both start in section 20 and they both end in section 19. They form two diagonals to the 1280-acre rectangle crossing near the center, forming a perfect X.
  • 17149, 1,271, XTO, Thompson 44X-20, original operator -- Headington Oil
  • 18726, 2,573, XTO, Marlene 42X-20, original operator -- XTO
The Thompson well was spud in June 3, 2008. The IP test date was October 23, 2008. Total oil produced to date: 174K. It continues to produce at 8,000 barrels/month. Only five (5) frac stages.

The Marlene well was spud just last year, May 19, 2010. The IP test date was July 12, 2010. Total oil produced to date: 119K. Here are the monthly production runs: 30K, 23K, 20K, 17K, 14K, and 13K.

Note, the Thompson well, fracked with five stages has produced 174K over 26 months. At $50/bbl --> $8.7 million at the wellhead. Paid for and it's producing at the rate of 8,000 bbls/month (half-million dollars/month).

The Marlene well, in the very same 1280-acre unit, fracked with 18 stages, has produced 119K in just six months. Oh, yeah.

The Thompson well, the older well, with just five frac stages, targeted the middle Bakken.
The Marlene, the newer well, with 18 frac stages, targeted the Three Forks.
It should be noted that not only are these very nice wells, they are not even in the best of the Bakken, at least based on some subjective data (i.e., my opinion).
Blue, LeAnn Rimes

Investors: KOG's Forward P/E Is 15 -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

I'm more interested in the Bakken as a "story" than as an investment.

When I became interested in the Bakken a couple of years ago, I was trying to figure out how to track information. I could have done it on a "Word" document but that just didn't work.

I had some experience with website development in a previous life, and I thought maybe HTML would be a great way to help me keep track of the Bakken.

"Blogger" application allows one to control who visits the website, and I could have kept the site completely private, or required a password to access.

But I thought it would be rewarding to open the site to any who might share an interest. The site was supposed to be educational only. I had no plans to introduce "investing" into the site.

But it didn't take long to realize that for me it was impossible to talk about the Bakken for any length of time without talking about investing.  And so there's a fair amount of investment talk on this site. I try to make sure such talk is clearly identified as "investment" talk.

My readers have made all the difference in the world.

As an example, here's just one little piece of trivia that I would have missed had it not been for a reader. I had not looked at KOG's key financial statistics for quite some time until someone pointed out that KOG's price / earnings ratio (P/E) was 400. That's incredible. Ridiculous? Maybe. But I had long lost the bubble (no pun intended) on KOG's P/E. So, it was nice to have a reason to go back and look at KOG's key financial statistics.

I was blown away! KOG's forward P/E for the year ending December 31, 2011 (that's just ten months from now) is 15. A forward P/E of 15. Money in the bank.
Money in the Bank, John Anderson

It's Friday night, baby,
Get ready, set, go ...
You look better than money in the bank...

I met a man who invented a money machine...
He said he would give me the machine
If I gave you up...

I just looked him in the eye
And I said no thanks.
You look better than money in the bank.

[Note: this is not a recommendation; it's just a bit of fun on a Friday night.]

Legislators Don't Want Signature Legislation Associated With President's Name -- Not a Bakken Story

His party does not want his name associated with his signature legislation.

To the best of my knowledge, this was not the case with Reaganomics.

Meanwhile, the president hasn't even phoned the House committee chairman to talk about the budget even though the president has made "many public statements that he wants 'aggressive' conversations with Republicans, especially Mr. [Paul] Ryan.

It's interesting to note that Mr Ryan represents the state of Wisconsin where there's been an outcry of support to rein in government spending.

Ten (10) New Permits -- North Dakota, USA

Any time we have new permits in "double digits," it's been a great day!

Producers: MRO (2), SM (2), CLR, Zenergy, Newfield, Denbury, Peak and Hess.

Fields: Brooklyn, West Ambrose, Reunion Bay, Deep Water Creek Bay, Fertile Valley, North Tobacco Garden, Mandaree, Big Butte, and a wildcat.

The wildcat is an SM permit; it is located ten miles north of Alexander (south of the river) and near North Tobacco Garden.

We see another CLR permit; CLR hasn' t had many new permits this year, so far.

Nothing remarkable regarding the rest of the daily activity report.

The state is on track to issue 1,899 new permits this calendar year. 

Tectonic Shifts

In an earlier posting, I noted that until I come up with a better "hook," I will refer to the next ten years as the decade of tectonic shifts (I don't like that phrase; it's too much of a cliche) but it will have to do for now.

The decade of tectonic shifts -- 2011 - 2020 -- follows the "lost decade."  (Interestingly enough, the fault line for the United States may have been the 2010 election).

There will be several tectonic shifts between now and 2020. One of them, and my primary interest, of course, is energy. The shift will be a realization on Wall Street that after a decade of talking about renewable energy, the real money this decade will be made in fossil fuels. In just the last two weeks, we've seen reporting how GE and T. Boone Pickens have shifted their strategy. A lot of money will be made in solar and wind energy, but the big stories will be about fossil fuels this decade.

Another tectonic shift will be, of course, the events currently unfolding in the Mideast, events which will  undoubtedly spread. Already there are headlines saying that the "Cairo" effect has moved to Madison, Wisconsin.

That brings me to another tectonic shift: the realization by property owners and taxpayers that their states truly are broke. Unlike the federal government, the states cannot print money. Regardless of which side of the issue you are on, I am not convinced "we" really comprehend how big the problem is.

But this one observation speaks volumes. All that "noise" in Wisconsin is about an emergency measure that is said to be needed to save $300 million over the next two years to help close a $3.6 billion budget gap.

If that much "noise" is being generated by attempts to save what amounts to only eight (8) percent of the entire budget gap, property owners and taxpayers (and municipal bond investors?) have not seen anything yet.

It's my understanding that Wisconsin is in better shape than many other states because Wisconsin has been more forward-leaning in tackling some difficult budgetary issues. If so, I can only imagine what "we" may see in Illinois, California, New Jersey and New York.

By the way, with an average pay and benefits package worth $50,000/year for a state employee, 8,000 jobs = $400 million. According to an unverified source, the number of state and local government employees in Wisconsin in 2008 was 280,000. Eight thousand of this total represents a little less than three percent. One could argue that attrition alone would save the aforementioned $300 million.

Wisconsin would then only have to worry about the other $3.3 billion gap.

******

[Update: wow, was I wrong on that compensation figure. It turns out the average pay and benefits package for a Milwaukee, Wisconsin, teacher exceeds $100,000/year. Generally speaking, a school year is about eight months long, once holidays, school breaks, etc., are taken out.]

*****
Wisconsin

February 21, 2011: This is quite incredible. The Republicans are one vote short of reaching a quorum so that business can be conducted. The Wisconsin Democrats take advantage of that and flee the state. Now, the Associated Press says it would take only three Republicans to stand up to the governor to reach a compromise. Say what! Three Republicans. It would take only one Democrat to come back to work for the legislature to get back to  work and debate the issue. The liberal, union-supporting bias of the media is over the top.

Overview of EOG: Snapshot of New Energy Decade

ZMan provides an outstanding overview of EOG.

This snapshot looks like a summary of what "we" have to look forward to in the coming decade of energy.  It's interesting that in the ZMan's overview, the Bakken piece is listed last. I consider that a very, very good sign.

The Bakken is moving into a new phase -- actually started sometime last year -- and now the Bakken-play companies are taking their technology and strategems to other areas onshore.

Travel in Northwest North Dakota Shut Down

"No Travel" Advisory for northwest North Dakota -- the heart of the Bakken.

Weather-related.

This will last for a short period of time.