Oil Continues Its Upward Trend (Price)

Link here. Brent over $91, close to $92.

Light sweet crude, $88 and change.

OPEC happy with status quo.

Moody's ready to cut US "Aaa" credit rating.

Short term, the price of oil is tied closely to strength of the dollar.

Long term, the price of oil is more closely tied to perception of supply and demand. The de facto moratoria on drilling off-shore along the US west coast, the US east coast, the Gulf, and Alaska will eventually affect the perception regarding supply. Congressional concern about TransCanada's Keystone XL could also become a factor down the road.

We already know that demand for oil will increase in 2011.

For Investors Only -- "Bakken Fund" Doing Very, Very Well

I can't recall if I ever blogged about the Viking Fund -- a "Bakken fund -- but for those interested, here is an update.

I don't think I blogged about it; at least I can't find it by searching my own site. Smile. Or as they text: LOL.

I know I debated whether to post it because I didn't want to suggest I was "pumping" any specific fund; I have enough concern as it is when I opine about investment opportunities in the Bakken which I do on a regular basis.

However, the fact that this story is now being carried in the regional newspapers I feel much more comfortable linking to it. I did not invest in the fund but I do know that had I not been a regular investor in other Bakken assets, I would have seriously considered the fund. I don't know if it's a load or no-load, or what the fees are.

So, I am posting the link to the story only as one more bit of insight to what is going on in the Bakken. Take it for what's it worth. But note: the fund is making a profit for its investors. Of course, if one couldn't make a profit in the Bakken this past year, you probably shouldn't be giving investment advice.

Slawson and Oasis With Three Nice Wells; BEXP With Another Typical BEXP Well -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Link here.

• 18602, 207, Hess, RS-Nelson Farms, Ross, Bakken, one of six on a multi-well pad
• 18200, DRL, Fidelity, Kinnoin 24-13H, Sanish, Bakken
• 18682, 665, Hunt, Cook 24-13H 1, Werner, Bakken
• 18940, 1,488, Oasis, Andre 5501 13-4H, Missouri Ridge, Bakken
• 17743, 533, Petro-Hunt, Focht 3D-4-1H, Nameless, Bakken
• 18870, 1,042, Slawson, Moray Federal 1-10H, Van Hook, Bakken
• 19031, 1,773, BEXP, Boots 13-24 1-H, Painted Woods, Bakken
• 19000, 1,048, Slawson, Goblin 1-26H, Van Hook, Bakken
• 18935, DRL, CLR, Glasoe 3-19H, Dolphin, Bakken
• 18936, DRL, CLR, Raymo 1-30H, Dolphin, Bakken
• 19013, DRL, CLR, Bridger 2-14H, Rattlesnake Point, Bakken
• 18995, 889, Oasis, Manhattan 5792 11-2H, Cottonwood, Bakken
• 18934, NoData, CLR, Raymo 2-30H, Dolphin

First thing I noticed were the fields, many of them I have not seen before or rarely seen: in this case, the Werner, the Missouri Ridge, and the Nameless. It has been rare to see wells reported from Rattlesnake Point, and even Dolphin to some extent, although there are increasing number of wells being reported from the Dolphin.

This tells me that more and more companies are a) holding leases by production, and able to move elsewhere; and, b) eager to see what else they might hold.

With so much work to do, they also need to get wells drilled to hold their leases. To some extent, much of this is a race against time. And, of course, the producer needs to balance moving a rig a long distance (time and money to hold another lease by production) or stay in the same area (less time and less money) but no advantage, since the lease is already held by production.

There are "no" dry wells in the Bakken.  Some may not seem to be profitable (economic) and indeed they may not, but it's not over until the re-fracking crews come in, other formations are considered, etc. I don't have time to look for it now, but I do recall one well with a lousy IP, only to see a much improved production run when sold to a new producer and the well re-worked. There is a lot more to this than just the first production numbers.