Opportunity Knocks a Third Time in the Bakken

Idle rambling on a Friday night. Perhaps the video at the bottom of this posting is more accurate than all I write.

For newbies:

• I'm irrationally exuberant about oil.
• I often extrapolate from a few data points seen through rose-colored glasses.

The first data point from which I will extrapolate:

the fact that a pure-play Bakken company can announce that it is going to dilute its outstanding shares by issuing another twenty percent (20%) of common shares AND then see the share price rise. Generally, when new shares are issued, the price of existing shares goes down.

Earlier this week NOG announced that it was going to issue about ten million new shares, equivalent to about twenty percent of their outstanding shares. The price of oil also dropped from $88 to $81 fairly quickly over this same time period (one week).

One would have predicted that the price of a share of NOG would have dropped significantly. In fact, NOG was near its 52-week high by the end of the week, and the new shares will be priced at the high end. And not only that, it appears that the offering will be oversubscribed, and NOG will end up issuing additional shares.

A second data point: Whiting has been granted about twenty new permits in the past month in Stark County, a county that has previously seen very little activity. We learn this past week about a "new" formation that extends into Stark County. I'm sure the oil companies knew about this a year ago.  (There have been 38 permits issued for Stark County in 2010; all but 17 are Whiting permits. Almost all of the ones issued this autumn have been for Whiting.) Whiting's "Lewis and Clark" prospect in southwestern North Dakota is likely to have two times as much oil as all the rest of Whiting's holdings in North Dakota, and Whiting has some excellent acreage.

A third data point: despite all common sense dictating it was not possible due to lack of infrastructure and personnel, the number of active rigs hit a new record this week, 160. North Dakota entered 2010 with 95 rigs; it will exit 2010 with 160.

So, where am I going with all this?

The North Dakota Bakken saw some initial activity in 2006. There was a spurt of activity from 2006 to 2008. Then a plateau. Another spurt of activity began in 2009 and went into 2010. Now, it appears we are in the midst of another spurt which will carry into 2011. I don't know how accurate those time periods are. To me, they are not important. What is important is the sense that the Bakken offers investors multiple and repeating opportunities. I missed the first opportunity but I was lucky enough to start investing during the second opportunity. Barring some major geopolitical event (EPA regulating fracking; oil plummeting to $40/bbl; a second, more severe recession), it's hard to see that we aren't at the beginning of another spurt of activity.

• 160 rigs. 
• Companies doubling their drilling programs. 
• Price of oil trending up. 
• Fifteen new permits in North Dakota on a daily basis this past month, doubling the norm. 
• Pipeline companies doubling down. 
• Fortune 500 companies moving in (XOM buys XTO; WMB buys seven percent of the reservation; Hess buys American). 
• A "new" formation announced.
• ERF and WMB paying up to $10,000/acre in the Bakken in the past month or so.
• $10,000/acre. In 2006, some of these acres were being picked up for less than $500/acre.

Investors who got in in 2006 were very lucky. But those who did not, got a second chance in 2009, maybe early 2010.

Right now, I think investors are being given another chance before another spurt. Every company in the Bakken Market Basket was up today (except two) and they were all up yesterday and this was after oil had fallen to near $80 before holding and turning back up.

Almost every Bakken operator has talked about increasing their 2011 capital expenditure (CAPEX) program (more drilling). And it's not just talk. Ninety-five (95) rigs ten months ago; now 160 rigs. Top line revenues are going to be setting records in 2011 (assuming the price of oil stays above $70); bottom line earnings per share may in fact be lower; it costs a lot of money to drill these wells, but long term investors know this will eventually take care of itself. Farmers are in arrears in the spring when they plant their seed corn; but they make it up in the autumn. Likewise, I assume it's going to be a very expensive year for drillers in 2011; it's their spring. But by 2012, investors will look back and realize they had three opportunities to invest in the Bakken since this boom began.


A Fool Such As I, Hank Snow
Perhaps, I, too, am a fool over the Bakken. Christopher Hitchens tells us we have to choose our future regrets. I would rather regret I was a fool over the Bakken and took advantage of the opportunity than to regret that I missed an opportunity of a lifetime.

Opportunity, they say, knocks once. Opportunity is knocking yet a third time for Bakken investors.

Twelve (12) New Permits -- North Dakota, USA

Operators: Marathon (2), Whiting (2), XTO, American Oil, Murex, Zenergy, Burlington Resources, Oasis, Fidelity, and Encore.

Fields: Bear Den, Sanish, Ray, South Fork, Stanley, McGregor, Banks, Bull Butte, Reunion Bay and two wildcats. One Whiting well is in its "cash cow" field, the Sanish, and one well, a wildcat, in Golden Valley, is in its Lewis and Clark prospect, which is getting a lot of attention from the company going into 2011. The two Marathon wells will be on one pad in Reunion Bay, a relatively good field.

American Oil's permit is where one would expect it, near Ray.

Looking for Companies With Less Than One Employee -- Not A Bakken Story

Source: WSJ

From "Few Businesses Sprout,  With Even Fewer Jobs"

In the early months of the economic recovery, start-ups of job-creating companies have failed to keep pace with closings, and even those concerns that do get launched are hiring less than in the past. The number of companies with at least one employee fell by 100,000, or 2%, in the year that ended March 31, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

If anyone can find a company with less than one employee, please send me a link. Thank you.

Nice XTO Well in the Blue Buttes Field -- Bakken, North Dakota, USA

Updates 

February 3, 2013: a bit of an expanded note regarding this field at this link; this is going to be an incredible Bakken field; if you have access to the NDIC GIS map server take a look at section 5-150-95: there are two 4-well pads back-to-back, the Hess Budahn wells. They are all on confidential status with one rig on site. These wells are just a mile or so away from the incredible Kummer well, producing 20,000 bbls of oil per day; I was told through an "anonymous" comment that production was flat due to takeaway constraints. One word: wow.

January 27, 2013: the following wells looks like they will be good wells; still confidential:

• 23167, conf, Hess, BB-Sivertson 151-95-2019H-3, Blue Buttes, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2012	26632	0
10-2012	10684	0

• 23168, conf, Hess, BB-Siverston 151-95-2019H-2, Blue Buttes,
  

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2012	26888	0
10-2012	12462	0

January 27, 2013: random look at BR's Kummer 41-30MBH well;
June 5, 2012: commentary on this field.

Permits

2017 (none as of April 14, 2017)

2016 (list is complete)
33046, conf, BR,
33045, conf, BR,
33044, conf, BR,
33043, conf, BR,
33033, conf, BR,
33032, conf, BR,
33031, conf, BR,
33030, conf, BR,
33029, conf, BR,
32995, conf, Hess,
32954, conf, Hess,
32953, conf, Hess,
32952, conf, Hess,
32912, conf, BR,
32911, conf, BR,
32910, conf, BR,
32909, conf, BR,
32908, conf, BR,
32904, conf, BR,
32903, conf, BR,
32902, conf, BR,
32853, conf, BR,
32852, conf, BR,
32844, conf, BR,
32843, conf, BR,
32842, conf, BR,
32829, conf, Hess,
32828, conf, Hess,
32827, conf, Hess,
32826, conf, Hess,
32825, conf, Hess,
32779, conf, BR,
32747, conf, BR,
32746, conf, BR,
32723, conf, BR,
32722, conf, BR,
32721, conf, BR,
32445, conf, BR,
32544, conf, BR,
32543, conf, BR,
32486, conf, Hess,
32485, conf, Hess,
32484, conf, Hess,
32483, conf, Hess,
32482, conf, Hess,
32460, 1,380, Hess,
32459, 990, Hess,
32458, 1,084, Hess,
32457, 1,438, Hess,
32456, 1,361, Hess,

2015 (list is complete)
32200, 1,297, Hess,
31893, 1,523, Hess,
31892, 1,717, Hess,
31891, 1,506, Hess,
31689, conf, QEP, producing, 
31657, 1,532, Hess,
31656, 1,167, Hess,
31530, conf, QEP, producing,
30610, 2,202, QEP,
30609, 2,053, QEP,
30575, PNC, Hess,
30509, 2 216, Hess,
30508, 1,468, Hess,
30507, 1,093, Hess,
30506, 893, Hess, BB-3ie3-151-95-3328H-5, t1/17; cum 46K 12/17;
30505, 1,052, Hess,BB-Eide-151-95-3328H-4, t1/17; cum 71K 2/17;
30504, 1,136, Hess,

Issued in 2014 (list is complete)
30291, 2.463, QEP,
30217, 2,353, XTO,
30216, 2,195, XTO,
30215, 2,622, XTO,
30214, 1,712, XTO,
30203, 348, BR, Lovaas 8-1-1MBH, t1/16; cum 264K 2/17; 
30151, conf, Hess.
30150, conf, Hess,
30149, conf, Hess,
30148, conf, Hess,
30147, conf, Hess,
30101, 1,742, Hess,
30100, 1,507, Hess,
30099, 1,431, Hess,
30098, 1,362, Hess,
30097, 1,702, Hess,
30084, 1,348, Hess,
30083, 1,134, Hess,
30082, 1,411, Hess,
30049, 1,457, XTO,
30048, 2,483, XTO,
30031, conf, Hess,
30030, conf, Hess, 
30029, conf, Hess,
30028, conf, Hess,
30027, conf, Hess,
29523, PNC, QEP, Foreman 12-11-1-2LL,
29517, 2,669, BR,
29461, 2,926, BR,
29163, 809, Hess, 
29162, 1,001, Hess,
29161, 1,051, Hess,
29160, 980, Hess,
29159, 1,193, Hess,
29047, 1,800, Hess,
29046, 1,303, Hess,
28968, 2.029, QEP, Foreman 36-35-1-2LL, 4 sections,  
28920, 1,587, Hess,
28919, 1,497, Hess,
28918, 1,313, Hess,
28711, 2,485, BR, 
28710, 2,886, BR,
28709, 2,485, BR,
28690, 2,725, QEP,
28346, 2,400, BR,
28161, 1,772, Hess,
27505, 1,628, Hess, 
27504, 1,314, Hess, 
27503, 1,675, Hess, 
27502, 1,740, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-9, t12/14; cum 215K 2/17;
27501, 1,674, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-10, t12/14; cum 236K 2/17;

Issued in 2013 (complete)

• 27349, 2,328, BR, Stafford 13-34TFH, t5/16; cum 139K 2/17;
• 27345, 2,265, BR, Stafford 13-34TFH, t6/16; cum 158K 2/17;
• 27344, 3,051, BR, Stafford 13-34MBH, t5/16; cum 162K 2/17;
• 26793, conf, Hess, BB-Belquist-150-95-1110H-7, t7/14; cum 187K 2/17;
• 26792, 1,295, Hess, BB-Belquist-150-95-1110H-6, t9/14; cum 61K 10/14;
• 26791, 1,166, Hess, BB-Belquist-150-95-1110H-5, t9/14; cum 37K 10/14;
• 26790, 1,145, Hess, BB-Belquist-150-95-1110H-4, t8/14; cum 56K 10/14;
• 26789, 1,014, Hess, BB-Belquist-150-95-1110H-3, t8/14; cum 32K 10/14;
• 26222, 1,964, BR, Harley 31-2TFH, T6/15; cum K 2/17;
• 26221, 2,446, BR, Harley 41-2MBH, t6/15; cum 226K 2/17;
• 26220, 2,806, BR,Harley 41-2TFH, t7/15; cum 183K 2/17;
• 26177, PNC, BR, Harley 11-2TFH,
• 26176, PNC, BR, Harley 11-2MBH,
• 26175, PNC, BR, Harley 21-2TFH,
• 25551, 4,435, XTO, Marlene 42X-20H, t2/14; cum 178K 10/14;
• 25550, 4,051, XTO, Marlene 42X-20D, t1/14; cum 189K 10/14;
• 25549, 3,264, XTO, Marlene 42X-20G, t2/14; cum 187K 10/14;
• 25059, 1,086, Hess, BB-Chapin 151-95-0506H-4, t1/14; cum 101K 10/14;
• 25058, 1,286, Hess, BB-Chapin 151-95-0506H-3, t1/13; cum 116K 10/14;
• 25057, 1,033, Hess, BB-Chapin 151-95-0506H-2, t12/13; cum 98K 10/14;

Issued in 2012

• 24506, 1,065, Hess, BB-State 151-96-3625H-5, Blue Buttes, t7/13; cum 125K 10/14;
• 24505, 659, Hess, BB-State 151-96-3625H-4, Blue Buttes, t8/13; cum 69K 10/14;
• 24504, 827, Hess, BB-State 151-96-3625H-3, Blue Buttes, t8/13; cum 69K 10/14;
• 24503, 733, Hess, BB-State 151-96-3625H-2, Blue Buttes, t8/13; cum 65K 10/14;
• 24410, 56, Hess, BB-Budahn A 150-95-0403H-5, Blue Buttes, t7/13; cum 76K 10/14;
• 24409, 1,339, Hess, BB-Budahn A 150-95-0403H-4, Blue Buttes, t6/13; cum 298K 2/17;
• 24408, 1,335, Hess, BB-Budahn 150-95-0506H-4, Blue Buttes, t3/14; cum 137K 10/14;
• 24407, 1,415, Hess, BB-Budahn 150-95-0506H-5, Blue Buttes, t3/14; cum 141K 10/14;
• 24230, 2,927, BR, State Veeder 11-25MBH, Blue Buttes, t5/13; cum 156K 10/14;
• 24229, 2,900, BR, State Veeder 11-25TFH, Blue Buttes, t5/13; cum 179K 10/14;
• 24136, 2,894, BR, Lassen 41-26TFH, Blue Buttes, t3/13; cum 103K 10/14;
• 24127, 2,487, BR, Lloyd 14-24MBH, Blue Buttes, t5/13; cum 145K 10/14;
• 24122, 2,968, BR, Blegen 44-24TFH, Blue Buttes, t6/13; cum 119K 10/14;
• 24120, 2,405, BR, Blegen 34-24MBH, Blue Buttes, t6/13; cum 145K 10/14;
• 24119, 2,981, BR, Blegen 34-24TFH, Blue Buttes, t6/13; cum 102K 10/14;
• 23969, 1,188, Hess, BB-Rice 150-95-0718H-3, Blue Buttes, t4/13; cum 270K 2/17;
• 23968, 1,348, Hess, BB-Rice 150-95-0718H-2, Blue Buttes, t3/13; cum 186K 10/14;
• 23667, 1,597, BR, Kummer 21-30TFH, Blue Buttes, t3/13; cum 117K 10/14;
• 23666, 2,806, BR, Kummer 21-30MBH, Blue Buttes, t3/13; cum 131K 10/14;
• 23665, 2,525, BR, Kummer 11-30MBH, Blue Buttes, t3/13; cum 272K 10/14;
• 23650, 1,536, BR, Kummer 30-31MBH, Blue Buttes, t3/13; cum 78K 11/13;
• 23649, 2,650, BR, Kummer 31-30TFH, Blue Buttes, t3/13; cum 83K 11/13;
• 23502, 1,035, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-0712H-5, Blue Buttes, t9/13; cum 54K 11/13; 
• 23501, 828, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-0718H-4, Blue Buttes, t9/13; cum 48K 11/13; 
• 23500, 790, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-0718H-3, Blue Buttes, t8/13; cum 47K 11/13;
• 23499, 694, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-0718H-2, Blue Buttes, t8/13; cum 42K 11/13;
• 23472, 1,734, QEP/Helis, P. Levang 4-14/23H,  Blue Buttes, t11/12; cum 165K 11/13; 
• 23457, 1,196, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-2, Blue Buttes, t6/13; cum 110K 11/13;
• 23456, conf, Hess, BB-Budahn-150-95-0506H-2, Blue Buttes, 
• 23455, 1,291, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-3, Blue Buttes, t6/13; cum 283K 2/17;
• 23454, 1,422, Hess, BB-Budahn-150-95-0506H-3, Blue Buttes, t3/14; cum 135K 10/14;
• 23450, 799, Hess, BB-Ole Anderson 151-95-3031H-3, Blue Buttes, t2/13; cum 92K 11/13;
• 23449, 671, Hess, BB-Ole Anderson 151-95-3031H-2, Blue Buttes, t2/13; cum 88K 11/13;
• 23290, 904, Hess, BB-Olson 150-95-0817H-3, Blue Buttes, t3/13; cum 146K 11/13;
• 23289, 1,500, Hess, BB-Olson 150-95-0817H-2, Blue Buttes, t3/13; cum 156K 11/13;
• 23250, 2,806, BR, Lovaas 11-1MBH, Blue Buttes, t12/12; cum 170K 10/14;
• 23249, 2,946, BR, Lovaas 11-1TFH, Blue Buttes, t12/12; cum 66K 11/13;
• 23168, 1,257, Hess, BB-Sivertson 151-95-2019H-2, Blue Buttes, t11/12; cum 140K 11/13;
• 23167, 1,127, Hess, BB-Sivertson151-95-2019H-3, Blue Buttes, t11/12; cum 155K 11/13;
• 22311, 2,779, XTO, Thompson 44X-20E, t5/12; cum 416K 2/17;

Issued in 2011

• 20469, conf, BR, State Veeder 44-36TFH,
• 20591, 2,656, Helis, Jones 4-15/22H, t4/12; cum 560K 2/17;
• 21012, PNC, Hess, BB-Belquist-150-95-1011-1PNC,
• 21013, PNC, Hess, BB-Belquist-150-95-1011H-2PNC,
• 21402, 1,309, Hess, BB-Belquist-150-95-1011H-2, t4/12; cum 177K 11/13; 25 stages; 2 million lbs sand and ceramics;
• 21403, 1,271, Hess, BB-Belquist 150-95-1011H-1, t4/12; cum 205K 11/13 ;
• 21428, 1,191, Hess, BB-Eide 151-95-3328H-1, t12/12; cum 134K 11/13;
• 21429, 1,140, Hess, BB-Eide 151-95-3328-2, t12/12; cum 157K 11/13;
• 21564, 2,288, Helis, Levang Federal 14-21/16H, Blue Buttes, 40K first full month; t8/12; cum 364K 10/14;
• 22050, 2,806, BR, Kummer 41-30MBH, t5/12; cum 503K 2/17;

Issued in 2010

• 18726, 2,573, XTO, Marlene 42X-20, t7/10; cum 317K 11/13;
• 18768, 1,212, BR, Blegen 2-13H, t11/10; cum 145K 11/13;
• 18942, 2,291, BR, Harley 31-2H, t10/10; cum 193K 11/13;
• 18973, 2,579, QEP/Helis, State 1-16/21H, t10/10; cum 643K 2/17; inactive since 4/14; looks like it might be back on line as of 10/14; back on status as of 12/15;
• 19178, 2,300, BR, Stafford 13-34H, t3/11; cum 194K 11/13;
• 19288, 984, BR, Veeder 14-24H, t4/11; cum 496K 11/13;
• 19425, PNC, Hess, BB-Stonewall-150-95-9H-1,
• 19737, 1,341, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-1, t1/12; cum 257K as of 11/13;

Issued in 2009

• 18013, 842, BR, Mathistad 2-35H, t7/09; cum 153K 11/13;
• 18053, 467, Hess, BB-State-151-96-3625H-1, t10/09; cum 255K 2/17;
• 18104, 1,113, Hess, BB-State A-151-95-1615H-1, t11/09; cum 350K 10/14;
• 18105, 860, Hess, BB-Federal A-151-95-0910H-1, t2/10; cum 344K 2/17;
• 18218, 615, Hess, BB-Federal-151-95-0817H-1, cum 357K 2/17;
• 18250, 1,230, Hess, BB-Federal B-151-95-2122H-1, t5/10; cum 273K 2/17;
• 18271, 547, Hess, BB-Chapin A-151-95-0403H-1, t1/11; t2.171l cum 185K 2/17;

Permits issued prior to 2009

• 16357, 371, BR, Veeder 14-13H, t2/07; cum 261K 1/17;
• 16531, 608, BR, Brown 44-1H, t6/07;cum 216K 2/17;
• 16571, 476, BR, Lillibridge 11-23H, t11/07; cum 182K 11/13;
• 16603, 391, Hess, BB-Budahn-150-95-0506H-1, Blue Buttes, t8/07; cum 191K 11/13;
• 16610, 267, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-0817H-1, t9/07; cum  384K 2/17;
• 16652, 434, Helis, Levang 3-22H, s6/07; cum 1233K; 2/17; has been fracked; 368,600 lbs of Carboprop; perforated liner;
• 16874, PNC, Helis
• 16892, PNC, Helis
• 16957, 134, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-1, t5/08; cum 215K 2/17;
• 16959, 971, Helis, Jones 16-14H, t6/08; cum 102K 2/17;
• 16960, 768, Helis, Jones 4-23H, t4/08; cum 159K 2/17;
• 16983, 15, BR, Mathistad 1-35H, t6/08; cum 253K 2/17;
• 17060, 528, Hess, BB-Burk-151-95-0718H-1; t7/08; cum 278K 2/17;
• 17118, 289, BR, Remington 14-11H, t6/08; cum 235K 2/17;
• 17125, 713, Hess, BB-Rice-150-95-0718H-1, t10/08; cum 344K 2/17;
• 17149, 1,271, XTO, Thompson 44X-20, t10/08; cum 391K 2/17;
• 17241, 522, Hess, BB-Olson-150-95-09H-1, t9/10; cum 294K 2/17;
• 17733, 759, BR, Kummer 1-31H, t2/10; cum 491K 2/17; 

Original Post

• 18726, 2,573, XTO, Marlene 42X-20, Blue Buttes, Bakken, t7/10; cum 261K 6/12;

The Blue Buttes oil field is an incredible field. The few Bakken wells that have been drilled there are reaching 200,000 bbls by two years. But there are many Madison wells still producing, such as:

• 1363, 432, Hess, North Dakota "I" 1, t3/57; cum 423K bbls; 4/12; although still listed as AL, it hasn't produced any oil since 2009 but that's still a well that produced for 52 years.
• 3972, 21, Hess, Blue Buttes-Madison Unit E-316; t11/65 (I was in Middle School); cum 473K 4/12; still producing at 500 bbls/month after 45 years;

The Blue Buttes oil field is just west of the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation. It has dozens of wells in a very small area, but they are all vertical and were drilled well before this current boom. However, like many other fields, this field is now getting attention due to the Bakken.

This is a small field, about two full townships in size. There are currently (November, 2010) two rigs on site inside this field, and five or six wells on the confidential list (including those with rigs) and several confidential sites right on the border of the field.

More than 275 wells have been drilled in this very small field since oil was discovered in North Dakota in 1951, and more than 50 of those wells are still active. The field is pretty much "owned" by Hess. Many of the wells,  however, were drilled by Texaco (that shows you how "old" this field is) and most of the wells (vertical), it appears, targeted the Madison group. The active wells, it appears go back to the 1980's, although there is at least one that goes back to 1965.

For those who want to see what the GIS map might look like in 2040, overlay the Sanish horizontal wells on top of the Blue Buttes density wells.

It looks like XTO has two wells in this small field.

Yesterday: the Government Motors IPO; Today: The 8-Ton Beast

This must be the day for "I Can't Make This Stuff Up."

The 8-ton "Beast" -- I'm sure there's a back-up and they both get flown around the world in a huge military cargo plane.  I'm talking about the automobiles. I assume the horsepower in the engines of these two beasts could provide the entire power necessary to run the electrical grid of some small developing countries. I assume the "Beast" is a GM hybrid modeled after the ChevyVolt.

Years ago when I was temporarily assigned to the Gambia (a very small country in western Africa), the nation's electrical grid failed. It was "happy hour" in the local bar where I was staying. Two American engineers working for some US industrial company, left the bar and were gone for about 30 minutes, when the power came back on, and they returned. They had gone out and started up two diesel generators that provided electricity not only for the entire hotel (and bar) but for the entire town.


IThe Great Pretender, The Platters

Yes, I'm the great pretender,

Pretending that I'm doing well,

My need is such, I pretend too much,

I'm lonely, but no one can tell.

Ohhhh ... yes, I'm the great pretender.

Adrift in a world of my own,

I play the game, but tomorrow you will say

You left me to dream all alone.

Too real is this feeling of make believe

Too real what I feel my heart can't conceal

Yes, I'm the great pretender,

Just laughing and ache like a clown,

I seem to be but I'm not you see,

I'm wearing my heart like a crown,

Pretending my base is still around. 

To real is this feling of make believe

To real what I feel what my heart can't conceal

Yes, I'm the great pretender,

Just a laughing and ache like a clown

I seem to be what you see,

I'm wearing my heart like a clown.

Pretending that my base is still around.

Nobel Peace Prize President? By the way, as long as we're on the subject of pretenders, President Obama just signed off on the largest arms sale to a foreign nation in the history of the United States.

The Obama administration has quietly forged ahead with its proposal to sell $60 billion worth of fighter jets and attack helicopters to Saudi Arabia unhampered by Congress, despite questions raised in legislative inquiries and in an internal congressional report about the wisdom of the deal.

The massive arms deal would be the single largest sale of weapons to a foreign nation in the history of the U.S., outfitting Saudi Arabia with a fully modernized, potent new air force. 

President Obama did this while Congress was in recess. Wow, he is an enigma. But, hey, why not. If the US didn't sell Saudi the fighters and the helicopters, Russia would. This is a non-story.

Speaking of General Motors. Coming out of bankruptcy and on the heels of its IPO, GM has a $45 billion carry-forward tax loss. Along with that $45 billion and other carry-forward debt, it is unlikely that GM will pay any federal income tax for at least 20 years. (I used to think Ford had a better idea by issuing stock instead of debt; now that GM has the advantage of no taxes for 20+ years, and Ford will have significant corporate taxes, I now wonder who made the smarter deal.)

Whiting's Current Presentation -- Road Show

Whiting's current presentation (November, 2010). It's a PDF link; it downloads fairly quickly but even on my relatively fast (but old) MacBook, it takes awhile for images to load. Lots of information, not just about Whiting, but the Bakken in general. Enjoy.

Some things that jumped out at me regarding this presentation (some things I may have misinterpreted):

Slide 12:  This is how big Lewis and Clark Prospect is; 2x bigger than rest of ND holdings --

• Lewis and Clark Prospect: 58 million bbls of oil / PV 10 of $828 million.
• Sanish Field: 14 million bbls of oil / PV 10 of $185 million.
• Other Williston Basin: 11 million bbls of oil / PV 10 of $193 million.

Slide 16: Lots of work yet in the Lewis and Clark; they've just barely started

• 52 net wells in Sanish in 2010
• Only 10 net wells in Lewis and Clark in 2010

Slide 22: average EUR 850,000 bbls/well; average completion cost/well = $5 million

Slide 32: fracturing only extends out about 500 feet from center bore (I could be a bit wrong on this)

Slide 54: Look at the difference in cash (now) compared with one year ago; with huge plans for Lewis and Clark prospect, will WLL need to raise more cash quickly; public offering? in the works? Cash = $3 million; not even enough for one well (however, see slide 59) --

Slide 59: net cash provided by operating activities: $280 million -- maybe that's enough and don't need more cash; but they must have burned through a lot of money to go from $15 million in cash last year at this time to $3 million now, plus burning through all that operating income

Slide 65: question regarding CO2 EOR -- unlikely in the Bakken.

Minot on Forbes List -- North Dakota, USA

Minot is ranked number 12 on Forbes list of best cities under 100,000 for families.