Received, October 13, 2010, about 6:45 p.m. central standard time from a reader: Credit Suisse just initiated coverage on Kodiak Oil &Gas (KOG) with a Rating of Outperform and a target price of $4.50.
The report is about 28-pages long, received from an on-line brokerage.
Comment: my gut feeling is that one might be able to extrapolate the KOG data to other Bakken companies. Certainly the projected price of oil would be very interesting. Likewise, the near-term production of the wells, is probably relevant to the other Bakken companies.
Today's closing price: an even $4.00. KOG was selling for $2.46 back in August, 2010. And they call me crazy.
At the current rate of job creation, it will take nine (9) more years to recapture jobs lost during the recession. This does NOT account for the five or six million jobs needed in that time to keep pace with an expanding population. Comment: minorities will experience the greatest growth in population during the next decade. Is 10% unemployment the new "normal"? Will there be a generation of men and women who never have a career?
Median house prices have dropped 20 percent since 2005; current inflation estimates suggest it will take 13 years for housing prices to climb back to their peak. Comment: perhaps folks will buy houses to live in, not flip.
Commercial vacancies continue to soar; it will take a decade to absorb the excess in many of the largest cities. Assuming a robust growth rate, it will take Atlanta (Georgia) twelve (12) years to absorb excess commerical space. Comment: perhaps innovative folks will find a way to turn some of these properties into low-cost housing for the indigent, the homeless, the abused, the poor, the lower-middle class. Businesses that survive are going to save money on brick-and-mortar costs.
Consumers are afraid to spend. Comment: banks are being asked to improve their balance sheets. Perhaps consumers saving more will help. Consumers will spend on what they want; there will be tectonic shifts in spending. Look for smaller homes, and more technology in those homes.
I've added this link to my "Investors" tab at the top of the blog.
This is an incredible site for quickly finding presentations and press releases of public companies. When you get to the site, simply type in the ticker symbol in the "search" box for the company you are interested in.
Twelve cents doesn't sound like much, but in this market, that's huge.
Another story today: cheap natural gas taking the wind out of renewable energy. Ya gotta love it. Wind is looking more and more expensive as an energy source. And solar is even more expensive than wind. But I'm not gonna go through that again.
Blue Eyes Cryin' In the Rain, Shania Twain, vocals; Willie Nelson, strumming.
Update on North Dakota cattle flying to Kazakhstan. It turns out the cows will get frequent flyer miles which can be transferred to their bovine friends left behind. Black-out dates will apply, and the total number of miles will only get them from Bismarck to Minot. The cattle filled out their menu selections before takeoff; most ordered vegetarian, although several had chicken ("Eat More Chicken") and a few went kosher, thinking kosher, Kashagan, and Kazakhstan had a nice ring to it. [Original posting here.]
The Minot Daily News has a nice update on the water level of the river. This is really something for North Dakota. It seems so many of the years I was growing up in Williston, the water level was getting lower and lower as I got older and older.
2015
31062, conf, Denbury, CHSU ML 41-02NH 05,
30755, conf, Denbury, CHSU ML 41-36NH 15,
30473, PNC, Denbury, CHSU 31-36NH 15, South Red River B,
2014 (list is complete)
30124, PNC, Denbury, CHSU 41-36SH 15, Red River B,
30123, PNC, Denbury, CHSU 41-36NH 15, Red River B,
30073, PNC, Denbury, CHSU 31-36SH 15, South Red River B,
30026, conf, Denbury,
30017, PNC, Denbury, CHSU 44-36NH 15, South Red River B,
29883, conf, Denbury, CHSU 42-24SH 15, producing,
29666, conf, Denbury, CHSU 44-23NH 15, producing,
29460, conf, Denbury, CHSU 44-26SH 15,
29459, conf, Denbury, CHSU 44-26NH 15,
29410, conf, Denbury, CHSU 11-36NH 15,
29395, conf, Denbury, CHSU 11-36SH 15,
28264, 5, Denbury, CHSU 24-23NH 15, South Red River B, t8/14; cum 7K 2/15;
28128, 51, Denbury, CHSU 31-27NH 15, South Red River B, t8/14; cum 17K 2/15;
28011, SI/drl, Denbury, CHSU 11-27 15,
27905, conf, Denbury, CHSU 13-9NH 05,
27631, 90, Denbury, CHSU 41-35SHR 15, Red River B, t6/14; cum 8K 8/14;
2013
27053, 171, Denbury, CHSU 14B-26NH 15, South Red River B, short lateral, 20 days of drilling; peak gas at 1,231 units; gas averaged 10 to 500 units; t4/14; cum 24K 8/14;
27243, 95, Denbury, CHSU 11-35NH 15, Red River B, t4/14; cum 11K 8/14;
27121, 201, CLR, Winchester 43-8SH, Red River B, t3/14; cum 45K 8/14;
25896, 116, Denbury, CHSU 31B-27SHR 15, Red River B, t10/13; cum 63K 8/14;
25895, 76, Denbury, CHSU 14B-16NH 15, South Red River B, t12/13; cum 21K 8/14;
25083, 193, CLR, Kurtz 21-28SH, North Red River B, t5/13; cum 80K 8/14;
2012
23846,conf, CLR, Bison 41-23H,
23574, A, CLR, Eric 22-24Sh, Red River B, no production data;
22702, PNC, Silver Oak Energy LLC, Sonsalla 1-27H, Red River B,
2011
20950, 55, Silver Oak Energy LLC, Rankin 1-35H, Red River B, t2/12; cum 5K 8/14;
20771, loc, CLR, Pronghorn 42-23H, Red River B,
20769, loc, CLR, Pronghorn 42-23H, Red River B1
Original Post
With all the news coming out of the Bakken and out of CLR in the past several days, I kept running across the "Cedar Hills oil field."
I never followed that field very closely; by the time I started blogging, oil activity had started to move from the Red River formations to the Bakken formations in and around the reservation. But for those interested, here's a nice flashback to 2007 and a look at the early development of not only Cedar Hills but also the Bakken by Continental Resources.
At that time, the "Red River formations" accounted for 54% of CLR's production in the Rocky Mountain region; these units were in the Cedar Hills Anticline in North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana. In 2004, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) listed this field as the 23rd largest field in the United States. In North Dakota, CLR's activity in the Cedar Hills field is in Bowman County, along the South Dakota and Montana border, in the very southwest corner of the state.
Most of the horizontals in the Cedar Hills field are a bit longer than a typical short lateral, and there are some areas with as many as eleven (11) laterals or parts of laterals running through a section (28-131-106). This helps explain why the Red River formations account for more than 10 percent of total oil production coming out of North Dakota since oil was first discovered in North Dakota in 1951.
It should be noted that drilling into the Red River is declining. From the Director's Cut: "Bowman County Red River production is declining again as there are now just 2 wells drilling."
Wurlitzer Prize (I Don't Want To Get Over You), Waylon Jennings