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Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Current Director's Cut (NDIC)

This has been previously posted.

The current NDIC Director's Cut is dated September 14, 2010. You can find it at the NDIC home page.

Jun Oil 9,434,312 barrels = 314,477 barrels/day
Jul Oil 9,952,296 barrels = 321,042 barrels/day -- all time record high -- almost 10 million bbls/month

Jun Producing Wells = 4,977
Jul Producing Wells = 5,051 all time record high

Jun Permitting: 128 drilling permits
Jul Permitting: 145 drilling permits --  all time record high

NDIC Director still voices his concern about EPA regulation.

KOG Operational Update, September, 2010

Bottom line: KOG is still testing the production potential in the acreage it owns. If these wells "hit," and we should know by the end of the year, watch the share price pop.

From the KOG "investorroom":

KOG currently operates a two-drilling-rig program in the Williston Basin. One rig is currently in Dunn County and the other is in McKenzie County.

Basin-wide, KOG has five operated wells awaiting completion. One should be completed by the end of September; a second one by mid-October. The remaining three awaiting completion are part of a four-well pad currently drilling in Dunn County (the only driller I know who has four-well pads is CLR -- the Eco-Pad, but there may be others I am not aware of).

KOG projects six wells to be completed in the fourth quarter. The five long laterals will be completed with 24-stage fracturing and the sixth, a short lateral, will be completed with 12-stage fracturing. Four wells target the Bakken formation; two target the Three Forks Sanish.

Since commencing Williston Basin drilling activities in November, 2008, KOG has drilled 19 wells, has completed 14 wells, and is currently drilling two.

Queen's "Rockin' the Bakken" Winter Tour, Their Homage to the North Dakota Rough Neck:

We Will Rock You, Queen (Note for newbies: just a little humor. As far as I know, Queen did not visit the Bakken)
 
Current wells, Dunn County:

Moccasin Creek 13-34-28-1H, long lateral, 22 stage, IP of 1,906; 17k in first 19 days. This well was offset from MC 13-34-28-2H which recorded KOG's strongest 30-day production number from any well since KOG began drilling in November, 2008. It's 24-hour IP was 2,055; it was a truncated long lateral and was fractured with 15 stages. The first 30 days oil production of this well was 38k, an average of 1,259 boed for the first 30 days.

Two Shields Butte 14-21-33-15H, a long lateral, reached total depth in early September. This was the third well drilled from the current four-well pad and is waiting completion. The wells drilled from this pad are significant in that one of the laterals was drilled within 1,350 feet of an existing lateral as part of ongoing tests to evaluate the optimal well bore density within 1,280-acre drilling units.

In addition, one of the wells was drilled into the TFS, 65 feet below the Bakken formation wells, and the lateral section is separated from one of the Bakken wells by 700 feet. All four wells from this pad should be completed by the end of 2010.

Current wells, McKenzieCounty:

There are four wells of interest. The Grizzly Federal 1-27H-R, a long lateral, 24-stage fracturing, is currently being completed.

The Grizzly 13-6-RH was re-entered (the press release does not elaborate); it's a short lateral expected to be completed in mid-October.

KOG spudded the Koala 9-5-6-5H in early September; it will be a long lateral to test the Middle Bakken formation. This is the first KOG well drilled in its Koala Project area and will be followed by Koala 9-5-6-5H3, another long lateral to test the productive potential of the TFS formation. Completion is expected by end the end of 2010.

Another 3-Well Pad Permit for Hess; Update on Another Stroh Well (Anschutz)

Today's daily activity report had two interesting data points.

First, Hess was awarded three permits for a multi-well pad:
  • EN-Reitch-157-94-3229H-1
  • EN-Reitch-157-94-3229H-2
  • EN-Reitch-157-94-3229H-3
  • All three located in section 32-157-94. 
These are in the Pleasant Valley oil field which I know little about. Time for a bit of research,  I guess.  Okay, here it is. Hess has a six-well multi-well pad in Pleasant Valley oil field just one section north of these three new permits. Of the six (they are the EN-Dolan and EN-Fisher wells; one has been completed and is on the confidential list (a long lateral) and one has a rig on site (September 21, 2010). Something tells me Hess must have hit something very, very nice with 18776, EN-Dolan-157-94-2833H-1, to request three more wells in the immediate area.

By the way, "EN" means East Nesson, which is in the Sanish. For other Hess nomenclature in the Bakken click here

The six-well multi-pads are a wonder to behold. The pads are huge, and rectangular; in this case (Dolan and Fisher) running east-west. The rig literally just moves from site to site, in this case, again from east to west. In a six-well multi-pad, three horizontal wells will run directly north and three will run directly south. They will target the Bakken formation and the Three Forks Sanish formation (both in the Bakken pool). 

*******

The second data point was Anschutz well, file #18424, Kenneth Stroh 1-12-1H-143-97, which came off the confidential list. The only data provided was that the well reached its total depth (TD) at 19,867 feet (a long lateral). However, we know that the IP of this well was 2,409 from another source. Click here to see that source and why the Kenneth Stroh has my interest.



Walk, Don't Run, The Ventures


By the way, I am thrilled with the stock quote gadget on the sidebar at the right. Of the ones listed in the sidebar widget, I accumulate CLR and NOG. I recently opened a small position in EOG and will be adding to that position. I trade in and out of WHX for the dividend. I accumulate ENB, and although EEP is a relatively new holding, it is likely that it will become a long-term holding, again, for its dividend.

Monthly Unemployment Numbers -- Not Getting Better (August, 2010)

The job picture got worse in 27 states -- this is a worse report than last month. In fact it's much worse considering the recession ended last June (2009), and considering the number of states whose unemployment actually worsened.
A total of 27 states reported higher unemployment rates in August, nearly double the 14 that saw increases in July, the Labor Department said in its monthly report on state unemployment Tuesday.
North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska continue to report the lowest unemployment among the states.

And two of these three states have no oil.

And one of these three states has much less productive farmland than the other two. And no oil.

Getting back to the unemployment report: thirteen states now belong to the "10% club." Last month it was "only" eleven states.  The two new states to join the "10% or greater unemployment" are Kentucky and Georgia.

Nevada, Michigan, and California are #1, #2, and #3, respectively.

With regard to the "recession ending in June of last year, I am pretty much convinced, that within the strict definition of a recession (a decline in two or more consecutive quarters) we are headed for a second recession in the very near future or we are already back in a recession. Even if we don't hit the mark exactly (a decline in two or more consecutive quarters) the growth is going to be so anemic that for all practical purposes, it would be considered a recession by most folks. The GDP is reported out to tenth or hundredth percentage; I don't feel a change of a few tenths or hundredths of a percent is statistically significant nor reproducible. It's hard to convince me that the recession ended last June when GDP is graphed with inflation taken into account: this graph suggests an obvious downturn for the past two quarters. [Update, September 23, 2010: I must be in good company. Warren Buffett agrees -- we are still in a recession. And Congress deciding not to vote on extending tax cuts tells me the recession will get worse. It's as much psychological as anything, and businesses are very, very nervous; they won't hire.]

Politically, would it have been better for the recession not to have ended last June? To me, going forward, incumbents are faced with two equally bad situations: a) explaining to their constituents why 15% still don't have jobs when we are no longer in a recession; of, b) explaining why they let the US economy slip into another recession so soon after the most recent recession (the so-called "double dip").

Connecting the Anschutz/Stroh Dots in the Cabernet Oil Field (Bakken, North Dakota, USA)

This is a complicated note; if you have a second screen, put up the NDIC GIS map server as you connect these dots about some incredible Anschutz wells in the Cabernet and Fayette oil fields. 

Coming off the confidential list today, Anschutz reported a great well in the Cabernet oil field:
Last month, in the August 13, 2010, daily activity report:
So, Anschutz reports two nice wells in (or right on the border of) the Cabernet oil field.

Hold that thought. 

Back on August 5, 2010, I wrote that one of the best blogs ever posted regarding the Bakken referenced the Anschutz in the Cabernet field and was posted by "Teegue", dated September 17, 2009. I linked that posting from the very beginning.

In August, one year after Teegue posted his note about Anschutz in the Cabernet, Anschutz reported a great well, a well that had produced 40,000 barrels before it was even fracked (I don't have an update regarding production to date and whether it has been fracked):
Now, back to that thought I asked to you to hold: in the immediate area, but in the Fayette oil field, Anschutz has four more permits:
  • 18611: DRL, OXY USA, Evelyn Stroh 1-17-20H-143-96, Dunn
  • 18610: DRL, OXY USA, Harry Stroh 1-8-5H-143-96, Dunn
  • 18503: PNC, Burlington Resources, Cecilia Stroh 1-18-19H-143-96, Dunn
  • 18463: PNC, Burlington Resources, Elizabeth Stroh 1-7-6H-143-96, Dunn
BR contested these Anschutz permits and went to the NDIC in August, 2010, to have these permits permits revoked. With such great wells, I can understand why. I discussed that at Gun Fight at the OK Corral. I have not heard the results of that hearing but until told otherwise, I will assume these are still Anschutz wells.

Now, add this to the mix (all of the following are in the  Fayette oil field) and they are all Anschutz wells:
  • 18822, 1,304, State 1-16-21H-143-96, Dennis Kadrmas 1-9-4H-143-96; s 6/10; t 1/11; 76K 6/11
  • 18823, 906, State 1-16-21H-143-96; spud 6/10; tested 4/11; 70K as of 6/11
and in the last few weeks, Anschutz has obtained permits for two more wells just to the east of these wells:
  • 19422, DRL, OXY USA, Beatrice Kubischta 1-15-22H-143-96
  • 19423, DRL, OXY USA, Elroy Kadmas 1-10-3H-143-96
and a bit earlier, Anschutz had obtained permits for two more wells in the Fayette oil field:
  • 18772, spud 11/3/10, confidential, Leiss 1-23-26H-143-96
  • 18773, spud 11/1/10, confidential, William Kubischta 1-14-11H-143-96
18822 and 18823 are on the same pad; 19422 and 19423 are on the same pad; 18772 and 18773 are on the same pad. 

It's taken a bit of time, but it's starting to come together. These Anschutz wells are about as far southeast in the Bakken as one gets. One wonders if the Williston Basin, at one time being one huge sea or lake, if this area was more shallow, and maybe a thicker formation. I am not a geologist and if I had the time, I suppose one could go back to all the geological links at this site, but that's more than I care to do right now.

Regardless how it all plays out, it appears that (where the Cabernet, Fayette, and Murphy Creek come together in the southeast area of the Bakken) there is another "hot spot" in the Bakken.  It looks like it's "owned" by Anschutz. By the way, just as the Bakken tends to end to the southeast (in this area), the TFS formation continues south and east.