For the state of North Dakota: revenue from oil extraction and production taxes will exceed $530 million this year and may reach $1 billion after next year.
This story was printed in the Bismarck Tribune.com earlier this spring. I missed it then; interesting enough to post it now.
North Dakota is projected to have an $800 million surplus at the end of the two-year cycle (ended July 31, 2010). North Dakota received $600 million from the federal government as part of the stimulus program, much of it for infrastructure.
I used to think that the budget surplus was all due to the oil industry, but it appears I am wrong, to some extent. Back in 1990 there was this story from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in which North Dakota was singled out as one of the few states with a budget surplus even back then. The surplus was $100 million at the time. However, then, too, much of the money was due to higher oil prices and a fairly robust oil industry.
Money, Money, Money, Mike and Xenia, Karaoke
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Saturday, September 4, 2010
A Re-Look at the USGS Survey Two Years Later
The US Geological Survey in 2008 provided a slide show dated April, 2008 regarding the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana.
At the time, the USGS estimated 3.65 billion barrels of recoverable oil in five "assessment units" in the Montana and North Dakota Bakken Pool.
Here are the assessment units (AU), amount of estimated recoverable oil, and percent (in terms of acreage) in Montana/North Dakota:
What was not on the slide presentation was just as interesting. The following companies were not listed as having been involved in the assessment:
The USGS survey suggested that 4 billion barrels were ultimately recoverable with existing technology, which represents just one (1) percent of original oil in place, that 400 billion barrels noted above. Again, that one (1) percent estimate was based on available technology at the time.
I doubt there is anyone that believes that one (1) percent won't change over time. Already, some folks suggest they may be recovering two to four percent of the oil reserves.
Harold Hamm, CLR/CEO, most recently, on CNBC this week, opined that eight (8) billion barrels oil is recoverable from the Bakken. Yes, that's double the original estimate of the USGS, but it's only two (2) percent of the 400 billion barrels estimated reserves.
Something tells me the eight (8) billion figure will be revised upward a year from now.
At the time, the USGS estimated 3.65 billion barrels of recoverable oil in five "assessment units" in the Montana and North Dakota Bakken Pool.
Here are the assessment units (AU), amount of estimated recoverable oil, and percent (in terms of acreage) in Montana/North Dakota:
- Northwest Expulsion Threshold AU, 868 million barrels, 80/20 (MT/ND)
- Eastern Expulsion Threshold AU, 973 million barrels, 100 (ND)
- Nesson-Little Knife Structural AU, 909 million barrels, 100 (ND)
- Elm Coulee-Billings Nose AU, 410 million barrels, 55/45 (MT/ND)
- Central Basin-Poplar Dome AU, 485, 45/55 (MT/ND)
What was not on the slide presentation was just as interesting. The following companies were not listed as having been involved in the assessment:
- Brigham Exploration (BEXP): now known for incredible IPs
- Burlington Resources: at the time of the survey, the number one oil producer by volume in ND
- Hess: discovered oil in ND in 1951; a major player in the ND oil industry
- Continental Resources (CLR): CEO considered by many to be the "face" of the current boom
The USGS survey suggested that 4 billion barrels were ultimately recoverable with existing technology, which represents just one (1) percent of original oil in place, that 400 billion barrels noted above. Again, that one (1) percent estimate was based on available technology at the time.
I doubt there is anyone that believes that one (1) percent won't change over time. Already, some folks suggest they may be recovering two to four percent of the oil reserves.
Harold Hamm, CLR/CEO, most recently, on CNBC this week, opined that eight (8) billion barrels oil is recoverable from the Bakken. Yes, that's double the original estimate of the USGS, but it's only two (2) percent of the 400 billion barrels estimated reserves.
Something tells me the eight (8) billion figure will be revised upward a year from now.
How Much Work Is There to Be Done in the Bakken?
How much work is there yet to be done in the Bakken?
Last year, 2009, the state granted 628 new permits; of those permits, 440 wells came off the confidential list (some were spudded in 2008 and completed/reported in 2009, obviously).
This year, the state is on track to grant 1,363 new permits (930 have been granted so far this year, 50% more than last year). Of these new 930 permits so far, only 117 wells have come off the confidential list. Obviously no more wells being completed this year will come off the confidential list by the end of the year.
6.39 minutes of paradise:
The Real Bakken: Minot to New Town
Last year, 2009, the state granted 628 new permits; of those permits, 440 wells came off the confidential list (some were spudded in 2008 and completed/reported in 2009, obviously).
This year, the state is on track to grant 1,363 new permits (930 have been granted so far this year, 50% more than last year). Of these new 930 permits so far, only 117 wells have come off the confidential list. Obviously no more wells being completed this year will come off the confidential list by the end of the year.
6.39 minutes of paradise:
The Real Bakken: Minot to New Town
Counting Confidential Wells and Other Trivial Statistics
In August, 2010, there were 913 wells on the confidential list.
Tonight, September 3, 2010, there are 961 wells on the confidential list.
It is my understanding that the wells in North Dakota come off the confidential list six months after the well is completed.
EOG does not frack between November and March. The end of September is the sixth month following the end of March. There has been a backlog in fracturing; I do not know how severe that choke point remains. For all I know it's been resolved, but I doubt it.
Due to recent concerns about "confidentiality" and other regulatory issues, a spokesman for the state of Wyoming says Wyoming will be watching the confidential list and the dates more carefully. I haven't heard any problems with the confidential list coming before the commission in North Dakota.
Seventy-six (76) wells are scheduled to come off the confidential list in September, 2010.
Extrapolating the 930 permits granted so far this year, and the fact that no more permits will be granted until Tuesday, September 7, 2010, the state is on track to granting 1,363 permits this year (2010). Of the 930 permits granted so far this year, my database shows that 117 wells have come off the confidential list (obviously many, many more have been completed but are still on the confidential list).
Last year (2009), the state granted 628 permits (according to my database); of those 628 permits, 440 wells came off the confidential list (70%).
In 2008, 953 permits were granted; of those 953 permits, 693 wells came off the confidential list (73%).
In 2007, 497 permits were granted; of those 497 permits, 356 wells came off the confidential list (72%). The average IP (in my database) for those 356 wells that reported was 438 bopd.
In 2006, 422 permits were granted; of those 422 permits, 194 wells came off the confidential list (46%).
Today, a new record was set in North Dakota for the number of active rigs: 146. This is up from 143 just a couple of days ago, and up from 95 at the beginning of the year (2010).
It appears we are going to average about 90 wells a month coming off the confidential list for the rest of the year. Four (4) months times 90 = 360 wells yet to come off the confidential list, adding that to the current 117 gives 477. That represents 51% of 930 and 35% of 1,363. New wells spudded from here on out will not come off the confidential list before the end of the year (actually, since July/August time period, newly spudded wells will not come off confidential list this year).
Note: these numbers are from my database and are in close, but not perfect, agreement with the state's statistics.
Runaway, Del Shannon
This has nothing to do with the Bakken, but I felt like posting it.
Runaway, from Crime Story, Del Shannon
Tonight, September 3, 2010, there are 961 wells on the confidential list.
It is my understanding that the wells in North Dakota come off the confidential list six months after the well is completed.
EOG does not frack between November and March. The end of September is the sixth month following the end of March. There has been a backlog in fracturing; I do not know how severe that choke point remains. For all I know it's been resolved, but I doubt it.
Due to recent concerns about "confidentiality" and other regulatory issues, a spokesman for the state of Wyoming says Wyoming will be watching the confidential list and the dates more carefully. I haven't heard any problems with the confidential list coming before the commission in North Dakota.
Seventy-six (76) wells are scheduled to come off the confidential list in September, 2010.
Extrapolating the 930 permits granted so far this year, and the fact that no more permits will be granted until Tuesday, September 7, 2010, the state is on track to granting 1,363 permits this year (2010). Of the 930 permits granted so far this year, my database shows that 117 wells have come off the confidential list (obviously many, many more have been completed but are still on the confidential list).
Last year (2009), the state granted 628 permits (according to my database); of those 628 permits, 440 wells came off the confidential list (70%).
In 2008, 953 permits were granted; of those 953 permits, 693 wells came off the confidential list (73%).
In 2007, 497 permits were granted; of those 497 permits, 356 wells came off the confidential list (72%). The average IP (in my database) for those 356 wells that reported was 438 bopd.
In 2006, 422 permits were granted; of those 422 permits, 194 wells came off the confidential list (46%).
Today, a new record was set in North Dakota for the number of active rigs: 146. This is up from 143 just a couple of days ago, and up from 95 at the beginning of the year (2010).
It appears we are going to average about 90 wells a month coming off the confidential list for the rest of the year. Four (4) months times 90 = 360 wells yet to come off the confidential list, adding that to the current 117 gives 477. That represents 51% of 930 and 35% of 1,363. New wells spudded from here on out will not come off the confidential list before the end of the year (actually, since July/August time period, newly spudded wells will not come off confidential list this year).
Note: these numbers are from my database and are in close, but not perfect, agreement with the state's statistics.
Runaway, Del Shannon
This has nothing to do with the Bakken, but I felt like posting it.
Runaway, from Crime Story, Del Shannon