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Friday, July 9, 2010

Oil Back on An Up-Trend

The price of oil is creeping back up, July 8, 2010. I just thought I would post that to keep your spirits up.

For Investors: Lots and Lots of Opportunities for Dividends and Growth

Updates

September 28, 2012: CTL preferred over WIN; interesting comments about FTR. 

Original Post

... and lots and lots of opportunities to lose a lot of money. A little bit of reminiscing. 

I'm an eternal optimist when it comes to investing.

I remember my first introduction to the stock market back in the 1970's. I subscribed to the Wall Street Journal and followed the dividends. I was pretty naive then and I always wondered why people put money in a bank at 3% interest when they could get 6% interest in the market and some appreciation at the same time. I started my investing in the late 1970's, so I missed the 1973-1974 recession. But I didn't miss "black Friday," October, 1987.  I didn't know about recessions, depressions, the business cycles, etc., then.

I had been told to look for shares that sold for about $6; had a 6% dividend, and a P/E of 6. If only.

I listened to the spiel of an individual trying to sell me a mutual fund. He was very, very nice, until I told him I did not want to buy until I did some of my own research.  I was so naive I did not know the difference between a "load" and a "no-load" fund. Fortunately, I did not invest in his high-fee "load" fund.

I took the Forbes course to investing about that time.

I am not a trader. I am not agile enough, and certainly not smart enough.

I am an investor. I tend to "buy and accumulate" in the energy and telecommunication sectors.

I prefer companies who pay dividends.

In the past six months (maybe past year -- time goes by quickly when you get to my age), I started looking for higher-dividends, something I really had not done over the years. "They" say it's a fool's game to chase dividends. I wanted to raise cash to buy shares in Bakken companies. Interestingly enough, several of the companies appreciated nicely during the process. Some companies that I buy and sell after collecting the dividends have been EEP, CTL, WIN.  (These are my exceptions to not trading; but I'm not trading for price appreciation but rather for dividends.)

I don't hold CTL any more but I see it is still paying 8.7% and selling for $34 (I was in and out in the $30 - $31 range, so I should have held longer, I suppose). I don't hold WIN any more either, and I see the dividend is up to 9.4% and selling for about $11. I was in and out in the $10 range; again, I could have held and done just fine.

A month or so ago, I diversified a bit out of energy, buying a financial stock, NLY, which pays 15.6%. I had no hopes of any appreciation, but it, too, has appreciated.

I see, today, that something called Compass Diversified (CODI) will continue to pay 10.4% with its next dividend. I do not hold CODI and do not play to buy any shares in CODI; I am happy with what I have.

For those interested, CODI seems to be a bit like Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. CODI invests in and acquires small to medium size companies in North America. It was founded in 2005.

If one is interested in American oil trusts, it's hard to ignore Whiting Trust (WHX), now paying 17.4%. I am frustrated with myself for not having bought that a couple years ago, accumulating, and just holding on. Besides the payout, there has been some nice appreciation.

I still hold EEP and am very happy with that one. At 3.5%, I don't hold ENB for its dividend but I replaced MDU with ENB (both with similar dividends and during the recession, ENB seems a bit more stable).

Even T (ATT) is paying almost 7% and for long-term investors, it may even be more based on original investments.

These are very conservative holdings, for the most part. They won't move like Apple or Google or some small start-ups but they keep me interested in the market. And, of course, this all ends next year when dividends are taxed at full rates. It's complicated but if dividends are again taxed at higher rates, it may make trusts (distributions, not dividends) more interesting.

This is simply reminiscing. I am not making any recommendations, but I had a few minutes free in the local coffee shop while traveling so thought I would jot down a few notes. It also forced me to look at how some of these companies are doing.

Op-Ed: New "Cap and Trade" Bill Targets North Dakota

New "cap and trade" bill targets North Dakota; this is an op-ed piece.

If you don't like op-ed pieces, you can read the "facts" in the Wall Street Journal.

It ain't a pretty picture.

Update -- July 16, 2010: Read the article yourself in IBD. The "new" bill
  • Won't decrease emissions
  • Will target only utilities (think MDU, OTTR)
  • Will transfer oil wealth to government
Finally we see what the real point was for "cap and trade." (Most of us knew it all along, but it's main purpose was to transfer wealth from deep pockets of the oil industry. The Spanish search for gold and silver in the new world was under the guise of spreading religion. Nothing has changed.)

Appeals Court Says "NO" to Moratorium in Gulf for Deep-Water Drilling

Administration has said it may re-draft bill to reinstate the moratorium. And if that doesn't work, they can do it again, and again, and again.

Not quite as efficient as the Chavez style in Venezuela but certainly nice for the lawyers.

Update, July 9, 2010: yes, the administration will submit a new moratorium plan. Meanwhile, the economic impact on Louisiana is minimal. Once this well is capped, this will become a non-story, but the administration will have gained more than it lost by trying to prolong the leak as possible.

NDIC Dockets for July 2010

I've posted my summary of the July NDIC dockets:

Some data points:

  • Lots and lots of multi-well pads
  • Spacing units are getting bigger and bigger (2560-acre) for these multi-well pads
  • Anschutz has a huge number of cases on the docket
  • EOG has a lot of 6-well dockets
  • WLL continues to put in more 1280-acre spaced wells in between two 1280-acre wells already producing throughout the Sanish
  • For my Australian readers: Samson has a number of cases on the July dockets; in fact, it may be the busiest I've seen Samson before the NDIC
I don't hold any shares in WLL but this is one of my favorite companies. If I had the cash, WLL and KOG might be the next two companies that I would invest in in the Bakken (currently, I accumulate shares in CLR, NOG, ENB). 

    New Wind Farm in Minnesota

    New wind farm in Minnesota: 150 MW capacity, 62 turbines, priced at 100% efficiency. Promoters expect 40% efficiency. Is 40% efficiency likely? One of the best wind farms in the US is near Baker, MT (USA), operated by MDU, and boasts an efficiency of 42%.

    It's been my experience that most wind farms run about 30% efficient. So, we'll see.

    More background on this story when it was is its planning stages can be found here.

    North Dakota is looking at regulating such wind farms.

    Newsweek: Great Great Boom in America's Heartlands

    Great, great article on America's heartlands. It was spotted by one of my readers and sent my way. Thank you.

    CLR Increases CAPEX to $1.3 Billion

    CLR is expediting its drilling program. Worried about EPA and fracking? Just asking.

    From the press release:
    Based on the timing of the additional drilling, Continental now expects production growth in a range of 15-to-17 percent for 2010 and significantly stronger growth next year. The Company's previous production growth guidance was approximately 13 percent.

    NDIC Dockets Summary for July, 2010

    This is my summary for the NDIC dockets for July. There may be errors, so if something doesn't make sense, go to the NDIC site.  Also, this is all shorthand, so it probably won't make sense to a lo of folks.
    July 28, 2010, Wednesday

    12843: Ritchie, temp spacing, Bottineau, Sylvia 1-27
    12844: EOG, temp spacing, Williams, Hardscrabble 1-16H
    12845: EOG, 1 1280-acre, 1 well, Parshall, Mountrail
    12846: EOG, 2 1280-acre, 2 wells, Alger, Mountrail
    12847: EOG, 2 1920-acre, 12 wells, Alger, Mountrail
    12848: EOG, 2 2560-acre, 12 wells, Alger, Mountrail
    12849: EOG, 1 640-acre, 1 well, Ross/Alger, Mountrail
    12850: EOG, 1 1280-acre, 3 wells, Clear Water, Mountrail
    12539, cont: EOG, 1 1440-acre, 6 wells, McKenzie
    12761, cont: EOG, 1 1920-acre, 4 wells, Van Hook, Mountrail
    12851: Cirque, temp spacing, Gunnison State 44-36H
    12852: BEXP, temp spacing, Tjelde 29-32 1-H
    12853: BEXP, 1 1280-acre, extend Todd, 1 well, Williams
    12854: BEXP, 1 1280-acre, extend Alger, 1 well, Mountrail
    12855: CLR, 7 1600-acre and 2 960-acre, extend Camp/Banks; 9 wells, Williams, McKenzie
    12856: CLR, 1 2560-acre, extend Camp, 4 wells, Williams, McKenzie
    12857: CLR, 2 1280-acre, extend Corinth, 2 wells, Williams
    12858: CLR, 8 1280-acre, extend Upland, 8 wells, Divide
    12859: CLR, 1 2560-acre, extend Oakdale, 1 well, Dunn
    12860: CLR, 1 2560-acre, extend Pershing/North Fork, 4 wells, McKenzie
    12861: CLR, 1 2560-acre, extend Elm Tree, 4 wells, McKenzie
    12862: CLR, 1 1280-acre, extend Poker Jim, 1well, McKenzie
    12863: CLR, 4 1280-acre, extend Bicentennial, 4 wells, McKenzie, Golden Valley
    12864: CLR, 1 1280-acre, extend Squaw Gap, 1 well, McKenzie
    12316, cont: CLR, 1 1280-acre, extend Big Gulch, 4 wells, Dunn
    12751, cont: CLR, temp spacing Ravin 1 1H, McKenzie
    12752, cont: CLR, temp spacing Miles 1-6M, McKenzie
    12447, cont: CLR, develop spacing for Ranch Coulee, McKenzie
    12014, cont: CLR, temp spacing Traxel 1-31H
    12553, cont: CLR, revoke Sinclair’s #18852, Pajorlie 1-2H, McKenzie
    12865: Encore, 1 1280-acre, 1 well, McKenzie
    12866: Encore, 1 1280-acre, 1 well, Murphy Creek, Dunn
    12867: Encore, 3 1280-acre, 3 wells, Siverston, McKenzie
    12868: Samson, 4 800-acre, 4 wells, Forthun, Divide
    12869: Samson, 5 800-acre, 5 wells, Divide
    12870: Samson, 4 1280-acre, 4 wells, Divide
    12871: Slawson, 1 1280-acre, 1 well, extend Big Bend, Mountrail
    12872: Baytex, 4 640-acre, extend Ambrose, 12 wells, Divide
    12873: Newfield, 1 1280-acre, 3 wells, McKenzie
    12511, cont: Newfield, temp spacing, Manta Ray 1-12H, McKenzie
    12874: Anschutz, extend additional 50 feet of the TFS formation in several fields
    12875: Anschutz, 22 1280-acre, 132 wells (6 wells on each unit), Little Knife, Billings, Dunn
    12876: Prima, 22 640-acre, 22 wells, Burke
    12877: Zenergy, 1 1280-acre, 1 well, Eagle Nest, McKenzie
    12878: XTO, 1 1280-acre, extend MonDak, 1 well
    12529, cont: XTO, revoke BR #18470, Olympian 14-35H
    12772, cont: Pride, 1 1280-acre, 1 well, Saxon, Dunn
    12785, cont: Armstrong, unitize Patterson Lake-Lodgepole, Stark
    12291, cont: Tracker, spacing in Saxon, Dunn
    12748, cont: Tracker, revoke Petro-Hunt #19041, Njos 157-100-26B-35-1H, Williams
    12746, cont: TRZ/Tracker, Zone II spacing, 4 wells, Big Gulch, Dunn
    12879: TRZ/Tracker, revoke Baytex #19133, Redfield 25-157-99H, Williams
    12880: Peak, 1 640-acre, 1 well, Antelope, McKenzie
    12881: Peak, 4 640-acre, 4 wells, McKenzie (rather than 2 1280-acre)
    12882: EOG, SWD, Shell Creek 1-01 SWD, Parshall, Mountrail
    12883: EOG, pooling Clearwater 17-01H, Clear Water, Mountrail
    12884: EOG, pooling Ross 100-09H, Alger, Mountrail
    12885: EOG, pooling Ross 20-16H, Alger, Mountrail
    12886: EOG, pooling Burke 24-08H, Mountrail
    12887: EOG, pooling Austin 30-13H, Parshall, Mountrail
    12888: EOG, pooling, Parshall, Mountrail
    12889: EOG, pooling Liberty 2-11H, Parshall, Mountrail
    12890: EOG, pooling Fertile 101-04H, Parshall, Mountrail
    12891: EOG, pooling Fertile 11-10H, Parshall, Mountrail
    12892: EOG, pooling Fertile 34-31H, Parshall, Mountrail
    12893: EOG, pooling Liberty LR 14-23H, Van Hook, Mountrail
    12894: EOG, pooling Mandaree 10-05H, Squaw Creek, McKenzie
    12895: BEXP, pooling Ross-Alger 6-7 1H, Alger, Mountrail
    12896: BEXP, pooling Jack Cvancara 19-18 1H, Alger, Mountrail
    12897: BEXP, pooling Owan 29-32 1H, Painted Woods, Williams
    12898: BEXP, 1 1280-acre, 3 wells, Kittleson Slough, Mountrail
    12899: Sagebrush, risk penalty, Kallberg 1H, Thompson Lake, Burke
    12900: Sagebrush, conversion to SWD, Bottineau
    12901: Sagebrush, EOR conversion, Wright 13-12, Kuroki-Madison, Bottineau
    12902: XTO, 1 1280-acre, 3 wells, Border, Burke
    12903: XTO, 1 1280-acre, 3 wells, Stoneview, Burke
    12904: XTO, 1 1280-acre, 3 wells, Big Butte, Mountrail
    12905: XTO, 1 1280-acre, 3 wells, Dollar Joe, Williams
    12906: XTO, 1 1280-acre, 3 wells, Capa, Williams
    12907: XTO, 1 1280-acre, 3 Lost Bridge, Dunn
    12908: Baytex, SWD, O’Briend 1-7, Divide
    12909: Baytex, pooling in Ambrose, Divide
    12910: Baytex, pooling in Ambrose, Divide
    12911: Baytex, pooling in Ambrose, Divide
    12912: Baytex, poolign in Ambrose, Divide
    12913: Denbury, pooling in Charlson, McKenzie
    12914: Denbury, pooling in Chalrson, McKenzie
    12915: Denbury, pooling in Charlson, McKenzie
    12916: Denbury, pooling in Charlson, McKenzie
    12917: Denbury, pooling in Camp, McKenzie
    12918: Denbury, pooling in Camp, McKenzie
    12919: Denbury, pooling in Antelope, McKenzie
    12920: Denbury, pooling in Siverston, McKeznie
    12921: Denbury, pooling in Siverston, McKenzie
    12922: Denbury, pooling in Siverston, McKenzie
    12923: CLR, pooling in Dolphin, Divide
    12924: CLR, pooling in Hamlet, Divide
    12925: CLR, pooling Sadler, Divide
    12926: CLR, 1 1280-acre, 2 wells, Sadler, Divide
    12927: CLR, 1 1280-acre, 2 wells, Fayette, Dunn
    12928: Anschutz, pooling in St Anthony, Dunn
    12929: Anschutz, pooing in Simon Butte, Dunn
    12930: Anschutz, pooling Kadrmas 11-27H, Simon Butte, Dunn
    12931: Anschutz, pooling in Fayette, Dunn
    12932: Anschutz, poling William Kubischta 1-14-11H-143-96, Fayette, Dunn
    12933: Anschutz, pooling State 1-16-21H-143-96, Fayette, Dunn
    12934: Anschutz, pooling Schneider 1-33-28H-143-96, Fayette, Dunn
    12935: Anschutz, pooling William Sadowsky 1-4-9H-142-96, Manning, Dunn
    12936: Anschutz, pooling Dvorak State 1-16-21H-142-96, Cabernet, Dunn
    12937: Anschutz, pooling Evelyn Kary 1-15-22H-144-97, Cabernet, Dunn
    12938: Anschutz, pooling Jaeger State 1-34-27H-144-97, Cabernet, Dunn
    12939: Anschtutz, pooling Kenneth Stroh 1-12-1H-143-97, Cabernet, Dunn
    12940: Anschutz, increase density on each 1280-acre unit in St Anthony, up to six wells one each
    12941: Anschutz, 1 1280-acre, 6 wells, Willmen, Billings
    12942: Anschutz, 1 1280-acre, 6 wells, Smon-Butte, Dunn
    12943: Anschutz, increase density, Hungry Man Butte, Billings; up to 6 wells on each 1280-acre unit
    12944: Anschutz, increase density, St Demetrius, Billings, up to 6 wells on each 1280-acre unit
    12945: Anschutz, increase density, Fayette, Dunn, up to 6 wells on each 1280-acre unit
    12496: Anschutz, increase density, Russian Creek, Dunn, up to 6 wells on each 1280-acre unit
    12947: Anschutz: increase density, Manning, Dunn, up to 6 wells on each 1280-acre unit
    12948: Anschutz: increase density, Cabernet, Dunn, up to 6 wells on each 1280-acre unit
    12949: Anschutz, increase density, Murphy Creek, up to 6 wells on each 1280-acre unit
    12950: Zavanna, pooling Gary 1-24H, Stockyard, Williams
    12951: Zavanna, pooling Hanson 28-33 1H, Stockyard Creek, Williams
    12952: Fidelity, pooling Lynn 19-20-29H, Sanish, Mountrail
    12953: Fidelity, pooling Domaskin 19-30-29H, Sanish, Mountrail
    12954: Samson, pooling Hanson 17-20-163-98H, Blooming Prairie, Divide
    12955: Samson, pooling Antonson 01-12-163-95H, Forthun, Divide
    12956: Samson, pooling in Forthun, Divide
    12957: Samson, pooling in Forthun, Divide
    12958: Slawson, pooling in Big Bend, Mountrail
    12959: Slawson, pooling in Big Bend, Mountrail
    12960: Tracker, pooling in Truax, Williams
    12961: Tracker, pooling in Truax, Williams
    12962: Tracker, pooling in Elk, McKenzie
    12963: Tracker, pooling Danielle 12-1H, Little Knife, Dunn
    12964: Newfield, 1 1280-acre, 4 wells, Bear Den, McKenzie

    July 29, 2010, Thursday

    12965: Hess, proper spacing, Forthun, Divide
    12966: Hess, Manitou or Alkali Creek, 18 wells on 1280-acre or 2560-acre spacing, Mountrail
    12967: Hess, 1 2560-acre, 6 wells, Big Butte, Mountrail
    12968: Hess, 3 wells, Manitou, Mountrail
    12969: Hess, 3 wells on 5 spacing units, Alkali Creek, Mountrail
    12970: Hess, 2 1280-acre units, 6 wells, Robison Lake, Mountrail
    12971: Hess, 1 2560-acre, extend Tioga, 6 wells, Mountrail
    12972: Hess, extend White Earth, 3 wells, Mountrail
    12973: Hess, 3 wells, Mountrail
    12974: Hess, 3 wells, Mountrail
    12735, cont: Hess, pooling in Westberg, McKenzie
    12975: Petro-Hunt, redefine Four Bears, McKenzie, Mountrail
    12976: Petro-Hunt, 1 2560-acre, 2 additional wells, Charlson, McKenzie
    12977: Petro-Hunt, 3 wells on all 1280-acre units, 2 sections, Charlson, McKenzie
    12978: Petro-Hunt, 4 units, 28 wells (7 wells on each spacing unti), Clear Creek, McKenzie
    12979: Petro-Hunt, 12 or more 1280-acre, 12 or more wells, Burg, Williams
    12980: Petro-Hunt, 2 1280-acre, 2 wells, McKenzie
    12981: Oasis, temp spacing for Sandaker 5602 11-13H, Williams
    12982: Oasis, temp spacing for Rebne 11-7H, Burke
    12983: Oasis, unrestricted production and flaring in Cottonwood, Mountrail
    12984: Oasis, unrestricted production and flaring in Sorkness, Mountrail
    12985: American, temp spacing for Ron Viall 1-25H, Williams
    12722, cont: American, unspecified 640-acre, 4 wells per unit, total unspecified
    12986: Marathon, 4 additional wells in each unit in Bailey, Dunn
    12987: Marathon, pooling in Bailey, Dunn
    12988: Marathon, pooling in Bailey, Dunn
    12989: Marathon, 2 wells in each unit, unspecified number, Reunion, McKenzie, Mountrail
    12990: Marathon, 2 wells in each 1280-acre unit; unspecified number, Mountrail
    12991: Marathon, 4 units, 4 wells, McKenzie
    12364, cont: Marathon, 1 1280-acre unit in Spotted Horn, McKenzie, Mountrail
    12992: Cornerstone, 1 320-acre, 1 well, Lignite-Madison, Burke
    12993: Cornerstone, 3 640-acre, 3 wells, Woburn-Madison, Burke
    12994: Cornerstone, 2 640-acre, 2 wells, Burke
    12995: Cornerstone, 2 640-acre, 2 wells, Burke
    12996: Cornerstone, 2 640-acre, 2 wells, Burke
    12997: Cornerstone, 2 640-acre, 2 wells, Burke
    12998: Cornerstone, 2 640-acre, 2 wells, Burke
    12999: Cornerstone, 2 640-acre, 2 wells, Burke
    13000: Cornerstone, 2 640-acre, 2 wells, Burkes
    13001: SM Energy, 2 1280-acre, 2 wells, Williams
    13002: BR, 1 2560-acre, 6 wells, North Fork, McKenzie
    13003: BR, 1 2560-acre, 6 wells, Johnson Corner and Blue Buttes, McKenzie
    13004: BR 1 2560-acre, 6 wells, Johnson Corner and Camel Butte, McKenzie
    13005: BR, pooling in Blue Buttes, McKenzie
    13006: BR, pooling in Blue Buttes, McKenzie
    13007: BR, pooling in Elidah, McKenzie
    13008: BR, pooling in Haystack, McKenzie
    13009: BR, pooling in Westberg, McKenzie
    13010: BR, pooling in Corral Creek, Dunn
    13011: BR, pooling in Little Knife, Dunn
    13012: BR, pooling in Little Knife, Dunn
    13013: BR, pooling in Little Knife, Dunn
    13014: Whiting, 5 2560-acre; drill an additional well between 2 existing 1280-acre units, 5 wells, Sanish, Mountrail
    13015: Whiting, pooling in Sanish, Mountrail
    13016: 15 2560-acre units; an additional well between 2 existing 1280-acre units, 15 wells, Sanish, Mountrail
    13017: Whiting, 15 spacing units in Sanish, Mountrail; unspecified acreage
    13018: Whiting, 7 1280-acre, an additional well, 7 wells, Stark
    13019: Whiting, 6 1280-acre; 6 wells
    13020: Whiting, 6 1280-acre, 6 wells, Dutch Henry Butte, Stark
    13021: Whiting, pooling in Dutch Henry Butte, Stark
    13022: Whiting, 1 additional well
    13023: Whiting, pooling in Morgan Draw-Birdbear, Billings
    13024: Questar, temp spacing for MHA 1-06-31H-150-92, Dunn
    13025: Questar, 2 560-acre, 2 wells, Deep Water Creek, McLean
    13026: Paul Ranking, 1 well, Lodgepole, Williams and McKenzie
    13027: Saltwater Disposal, Ross, Mountrail
    13028: Kodiak, add a 640-acre unit to Twin Buttes field, Dunn
    12248, cont: Gregory Tank, legalese with CLR and a well in Johnson Corner, McKenzie
    12249, cont: Gregory Tank, legalese with BR and a well in Camel Butte, McKenzie