I grew up with three news magazines: Time, Newsweek, and US News and World Report. The first was always the most liberal. I always felt Newsweek was most balanced, and US News too conservative, even by my standards. Over time, either they have changed, or I have changed. Time is still the most liberal, but I can't tell the difference between Time and Newsweek any more. Most interesting to me: US News is almost as liberal as the other two. Having said that, I've always enjoyed and trusted its editor, Mort Zuckerman, even though on television talk shows he is often too liberal for my tastes, especially when I catch him on "Morning Joe."
His three-page op-ed piece this week is superb, and I would hope everyone reads it.
My concern is that at some point some rogue nation will really test Obama if Mort's views are accurate. If Obama fails the test, the price of oil will skyrocket. But that won't be good news for any of us, even those of us who are heavily invested in oil.
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Friday, June 18, 2010
OAS Had A Great Day! A Look At Current Operating Picture
A new high the first full day of trading, closing near its high for the day at $15.96, up $1.08, 7.26%. I am impressed.
Here are the Oasis wells that are on confidential status (file numbers; not necessarily drilled or completed) (ROS = rig on site) (oil fields in bold):
Here are the Oasis wells that are on confidential status (file numbers; not necessarily drilled or completed) (ROS = rig on site) (oil fields in bold):
- 16949, Schmitz Federal 44-34H-2, SESE 34-T153N-R102W, Eightmile
- 17636, Helling Trust 11-15H, NWNW 15-T154N-R94W, Alkali
- 17646, Peters 11-1H, Lot 4 1-T160N-R93W, Gros Ventre
- 17793, Nordby 5793-13-13H, NWNE 13-T157N-93W, Sorkness
- 17882, Colbenson 11-6H, Lot 4 6-T157N-R92W, Cottonwood
- 18357, Rebne 11-7H, Lot 1 7-T162N-R92W, Wildcat
- 18410, Barenthsen 6059 44-5H, SESE 5-T159N-R92W, Cottonwood
- 18418, Sandaker 5602 11-13H, NWNW 13-T156N-R102W, Cottonwood
- 18437, Angell 5200 31-28H, NWSW 28-T152N-R100W, Camp
- 18447, Enerson 5792 44-4H, SESE 4-T157N-R92W, Cottonwood
- 18466, Hynek 5693 42-35H, SESW 35-T156N-R93W, Alger
- 18567, Njos Federal 5602 11-13H, NWNW 13-T156N-R102W, Wildcat
- 18593, Edwards 6092 42-35H, SESW 35-T160N-R92W, Cottonwood
- 18623, Odin Jorgenson 5502 44-8H, SWSE 8-T155N-R102W, Squires
- 18657, Ernst 6092 42-31H, SESW 31-T160N-R92W, Cottonwood
- 18799, Stowers 5502 43-8H, SWSE 8-T155N-R102W, Squires
- 18801, Contreras 5502 42-7H, SESW 7-T155N-R102W, Squires, ROS
- 18802, Vuki 5502 42-7H, SESW 7-T155N-R102W, Squires
- 18817, Kjos 5502 44-24H, SESE 24-T155N-R102W, Squires
- 18855, Meiers 5692 11-19H, NENW 19-T156N-R92W, Alger
- 18857, Berry 5493 11-6H, Lot 4 6-T154N-R93W, Robinson Lake
- 18914, Ellis 5602 42-8H, SESW 8-T156N-R102W, Bull Butte -- cancelled
- 18916, Missouri 52012 44-35H, SESE 35-T153N-R102W, Indian Hill, ROS
- 18940, Andre 5501 13-4H, NWNE 4-T155N-R101W, Missouri Ridge, ROS
- 18995, Manhattan 5792 11-2H, NWNW 2-T157N-R92W, Cottonwood, ROS
- 19030, Kjorstad 5300 24-22H, SENW 22-T153N-R100W, Wildcat
- 19036, Evans 5693 42-27H, SESW 27-T156N-R93W, Alger
- 19037, Banks 5892 44-34H, SESE 34-T158N-R92W, Cottonwood
- 19046, McFarland 5502 44-12H, SESE 12-T155N-R102W, Squires
- 19091, Horne 5603 44-9H, SESE 9-T156N-R103W, Bull Butte
- 19097, Merritt 5693 11-24H, NWNW 24-T156N-R93W, Alger
- 19131, Somerset 5602 12-17H, NENW 17-T156N-R102W, Bull Butte
- 19132, Ellis 5602 12-17H, NENW 17-T156N-R102W, Bull Butte
- 19152, Hagen 5792 44-31H, SESE 31-T157N-R92W, Wildcat
- Bull Butte and Squires are in the Rough Rider area of BEXP, and have reported some good 24-flowback wells.
- I've not been impressed with Cottonwood wells
- Alger wells are generally good to very good
Slawson Reported Another Decent Well Today
Cougar Federal 1-30H in Big Bend, 1, 264.
For quick look at Slawson's wells in Big Bend/Van Hook, click here. Slawson is not a publicly traded company but it partners with companies that are. In addition, it gives one an idea what the Bakken potential is.
For quick look at Slawson's wells in Big Bend/Van Hook, click here. Slawson is not a publicly traded company but it partners with companies that are. In addition, it gives one an idea what the Bakken potential is.
Peggy Noonan's Take on the "Speech"
As I've said before: I read the Wall Street Journal for its good writing, not for investment advice.
North Dakota Number One (#1) Again
North Dakota is number one (#1) in dry edible beans.
And I thought "we" were just number one (#1) in hard spring wheat, honey and ICBMs. And home of the largest continuous oil reservoir ever surveyed by the USGS.
And I thought "we" were just number one (#1) in hard spring wheat, honey and ICBMs. And home of the largest continuous oil reservoir ever surveyed by the USGS.
Headline Writers
I was the editor for both my high school newspaper and my college newspaper, so I know a little bit about headline writing.
This is a great example. This is the headline from the AP today: Unemployment Falls in 37 States.
Sounds like bullish news. But that is dispelled in the first paragraph:
The rest of the article:
This is a great example. This is the headline from the AP today: Unemployment Falls in 37 States.
Sounds like bullish news. But that is dispelled in the first paragraph:
A majority of states saw their unemployment rates drop in May. But the widespread declines were mainly because people gave up work searches and were no longer counted.As I have noted in previous posts, if everyone would just quit looking for work, the unemployment numbers would plummet, to around 0%.
The rest of the article:
The Labor Department says the unemployment rate fell in 37 states. Six states had increases and seven saw no change.The unemployment news above is just the tip of the iceberg. It is going to get very, very ugly by the end of the summer going into the autumn, off-cycle elections. By then, the effect of states cutting their payrolls to balance their budgets will start being felt, another AP story.
Forty-one states saw a net increase in jobs. But that reflected national data showing a huge gain because of government hiring of temporary census workers.
Nevada rose to the highest jobless rate in the country, marking the first time in more than four years that Michigan did not hold the top spot. Nevada's rate was 14 percent. Michigan fell to 13.6 percent.
The layoff ax has hit public sector payrolls with force as states wrestle with massive budget shortfalls. Since August 2008, some 231,000 state and local government jobs have disappeared -- 22,000 last month alone, according to federal data.It's hardly political posturing when the country is $19 trillion in debt, 90% of GDP, and growing daily.
The majority of the cuts are on the local level, which at 14.4 million workers is nearly three times the size of the state workforce. Plus, unlike at the federal level, most of these cuts come from the ranks of teachers, cops, firefighters and social service workers.
And more pain is coming down the pike. Some 19 states say they plan to implement layoffs to narrow budget gaps, according to a recent survey.
The cuts will be even deeper if Congress doesn't give $24 billion to the states to help cover Medicaid costs. This legislation, along with a $23 billion bill to fund teachers' salaries, is bogged down in political posturing on Capitol Hill.
Seeking Alpha on OAS
Prospectus at time of IPO.
This is how others see Oasis.
For newbies, comparison with BEXP is a bit more speculative than a comparison with other companies would have been:
It is not uncommon for a company that "exhausts" one formation, to simply move the bore well up a 100 feet to the next pay zone.
In addition, there is more and more talk of huge natural gas deposits below the Bakken.
The fact that Oasis has no debt is very, very impressive in this highly-capitalized sector.
June 18, 2010: Oasis had a first good day. Offering was $14. Was up to $15.40 the full first day. Nice move.
This is how others see Oasis.
For newbies, comparison with BEXP is a bit more speculative than a comparison with other companies would have been:
BEXP champions 24-hour flowback for reporting their initial production numbers, and as a result, has the highest decline rate.
BEXP is one of the few operators in the North Dakota Bakken that has not increased the number of its rigs despite being one of the most vocally optimistic of these operators.Other comments:
Acreage controlled by Oasis has been less than stellar in the past, and much of it was obtained from MDU/Fidelity which has had a very poor track record for oil in the North Dakota Bakken.I do agree that the potential for any operator is huge, however, in the Bakken. Most analysts value the producers based on two pay zones (the Middle Bakken and the Three Fork Sanish group). In fact, there are about 20 pay zones in North Dakota, but not all are in the same location.
It is not uncommon for a company that "exhausts" one formation, to simply move the bore well up a 100 feet to the next pay zone.
In addition, there is more and more talk of huge natural gas deposits below the Bakken.
The fact that Oasis has no debt is very, very impressive in this highly-capitalized sector.
June 18, 2010: Oasis had a first good day. Offering was $14. Was up to $15.40 the full first day. Nice move.
$7 gasoline?
That's what some are saying about Obama's knee-jerk reaction to shutting down the gulf. Not me, others are saying that. I'm just the messenger.
Nice Article on ND Oil Industry in Minot Daily News.
Two-part article on oil industry on the reservation in the Minot Daily News.
The links to these articles are generally broken in a few days, and the articles are archived, requiring a subscription, free or paid.
By the way, of the local newspapers on the internet, the Minot "paper" has consistently had the better reporting in my opinion. The Dickinson Press might come in second, competing closely with the Bismarck Tribune.
For newbies, just to give you an idea how big the Bakken is, for perspective: today it is announced nationally with a bit of fanfare that the electric car company Tesla will go pubic with an IPO to raise about $167 million.
In comparison, one of the smallest players in the Bakken, Oasis Petroleum, went public yesterday and its IPO raised just slightly less than $600 million. The current boom in the North Dakota Bakken is now about four years "old."
The links to these articles are generally broken in a few days, and the articles are archived, requiring a subscription, free or paid.
By the way, of the local newspapers on the internet, the Minot "paper" has consistently had the better reporting in my opinion. The Dickinson Press might come in second, competing closely with the Bismarck Tribune.
For newbies, just to give you an idea how big the Bakken is, for perspective: today it is announced nationally with a bit of fanfare that the electric car company Tesla will go pubic with an IPO to raise about $167 million.
In comparison, one of the smallest players in the Bakken, Oasis Petroleum, went public yesterday and its IPO raised just slightly less than $600 million. The current boom in the North Dakota Bakken is now about four years "old."
Warning: My Political Note for the Day
More from the right-wing LA Times on the President's speech. "There's a pipe spewing a gazillion gobs of oil into the gulf, so let's build more windmills."
By the way, has anyone done the carbon-spewing calculations on this fact: BP is flaring 30 million cubic feet of natural gas daily from the source of the leak, adding up to about 450 million cubic feet of natural gas since the containment effort started 15 days ago. That's enough gas to heat about 450,000 homes for four days.
Something tells me it would have taken a hundred years of Big Stone II to spew this much carbon. Oh, well.
By the way, this story gets more interesting as the facts come out. The blow-out resulted from high methane gas pressure. It is the pressure of methane gas that pushes oil up a pipe. Oil companies put in blow-out protectors and valves to help prevent such blow-outs. Blow-outs were common in the early oil industry. This particular gulf well contained about 40 percent methane, compared with about 5 percent found in typical oil deposits. This helps me understand much about the etiology of the problem.
By the way, has anyone done the carbon-spewing calculations on this fact: BP is flaring 30 million cubic feet of natural gas daily from the source of the leak, adding up to about 450 million cubic feet of natural gas since the containment effort started 15 days ago. That's enough gas to heat about 450,000 homes for four days.
Something tells me it would have taken a hundred years of Big Stone II to spew this much carbon. Oh, well.
By the way, this story gets more interesting as the facts come out. The blow-out resulted from high methane gas pressure. It is the pressure of methane gas that pushes oil up a pipe. Oil companies put in blow-out protectors and valves to help prevent such blow-outs. Blow-outs were common in the early oil industry. This particular gulf well contained about 40 percent methane, compared with about 5 percent found in typical oil deposits. This helps me understand much about the etiology of the problem.
Idle Ramblings on IPOs
One of the reasons I enjoy investing is because it keeps me current in what is going on in the world, regardless of whether I actually invest all that much, or how well I do.
It also helps me put things in perspective.
I see today that Tesla (electric cars) will go public:
It plans to raise about $167 million.
I would not know what to make of that number had I not followed the Bakken so closely. The Bakken has taught me much more about investing than just about the oil industry in North Dakota. (The Bakken has also taught me geology, the reality of wind/solar energy, energy politics, and how to set up a blog. It also taught me how much time and energy is required to host a blog.)
Yesterday, as you all know, one of the smallest oil companies working in the Bakken, Oasis Petroleum, went public. Its IPO raised almost $600 million:
I did not invest in Oasis; I'm too heavily invested in oil to buy any more energy companies but I had watched this since the announcement in March when I was first alerted me to it. (Slawson, on the other hand, would be hard to resist.)
Anyway, idle chatter, but it is interesting to see Tesla go public and how much they value the company. Toyota will take a 5% stake.
It also helps me put things in perspective.
I see today that Tesla (electric cars) will go public:
It plans to raise about $167 million.
I would not know what to make of that number had I not followed the Bakken so closely. The Bakken has taught me much more about investing than just about the oil industry in North Dakota. (The Bakken has also taught me geology, the reality of wind/solar energy, energy politics, and how to set up a blog. It also taught me how much time and energy is required to host a blog.)
Yesterday, as you all know, one of the smallest oil companies working in the Bakken, Oasis Petroleum, went public. Its IPO raised almost $600 million:
I did not invest in Oasis; I'm too heavily invested in oil to buy any more energy companies but I had watched this since the announcement in March when I was first alerted me to it. (Slawson, on the other hand, would be hard to resist.)
Anyway, idle chatter, but it is interesting to see Tesla go public and how much they value the company. Toyota will take a 5% stake.