PrairieBusiness is reporting the results of the recent USGS survey of the Three Forks Sanish. The USGS findings: it is estimated that there are 1.9 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the TFS in North Dakota. This compares with the USGS estimate of 2.1 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Bakken formations in North Dakota. Most of the oil coming from the Bakken formations is coming from the Middle Bakken (MB).
This is incredible.
Again, because "we" have become so used to "the Bakken" nothing seems to surprise us much any more.
But think about this a minute. Here are some data points:
- The initial discovery of the Bakken resulted in headline stores around the world. We now have a formal survey that confirms what oil industry analysts have been saying about "the Bakken" for the past year or so. There is another formation that is as big as the Bakken. By the way, some folks opine that the TFS might actually be bigger.
- It has been estimated that the Bakken will require thirty years of drilling to exhaust locations; and, that wells will be producing until 2100. If I understand correctly, this estimate was based only on the Bakken formation. If there is another formation that is the same size as the Bakken, ... well ... you can do the math.
- All of the Bakken / TFS is in a politically stable environment.
- Most of the Bakken / TFS is under state land, not federal land. (Compare with Utah, Montana and Wyoming.)
- Companies already have tons of logs, information, data, leases, rights-of-way, rigs-in-place, and, most important, the experience to start drilling this formation immediately (and, indeed, they already have).