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Thursday, May 20, 2010

Update on New Permits Granted So Far This Year

With six (6) new permits granted today, North Dakota is on track for 1,270 new permits in calendar year 2010.

How does this stack up with previous years in this boom?

2006: 422 permits; 193 of those have been drilled to date
2007: 497 permits; 437 of those have been drilled to date; a very few dry
2008: 954 permits; 660 of those have been drilled to date; a very few dry
2009: 628 permits; 314 of those have been drilled to date
2010: 487 permits; 7 of those have been drilled (off the confidential list)

Daily Activity Reports: Dullsville

I don't get it. There are 114 active rigs in the Bakken. They can drill a well in less than 30 days. There is a backlog in fracking, and Halliburton now has crews working 24/7, and we are almost into our sixth month of 2010, and yet, and yet, .... the daily reports of completed wells are well, lackluster.

[Wells can stay on the confidential list for six months.]

Yesterday, two wells reported. The day before, two. Today, none. Only one well came off the confidential list today and that was because the permit was canceled.

The good news is that the list of new permits continue to grow, averaging about four to six new permits every day. Today there were six new permits but even that list was not particularly exciting: no Eco-Pads, no multiple-well sites.

Maybe I will be pleasantly surprised tomorrow, but today was a bummer as far as the daily activity report goes.

Wind Farm Electricity Costs Coming In -- and They Aren't Pretty

I used to publish an energy blog that covered all energy issues, but I deleted it when I simply ran out of time to devote to it.

Actually that's not true. Through that blog I felt I finally understood some of the issues regarding global energy issues, but the more I learned about energy, the more irritated / frustrated I became. It was best just to delete the entire blog and move on. That's why I limit my blog to the oil and natural gas industry in North Dakota -- my home state -- and try to remain unemotional about energy in general, except to one arena: I remain irrationally exuberant about the Bakken, or more appropriately, the Williston Basin.

But on occasion I will blog about other issues. Yesterday it was the recently passed national health care plan. Today it's about energy in the Northeast. 

Today I am in Boston, enjoying The Boston Globe (see Doomsday: Mainstream Media). The Massachusetts utility company, National Grid, has announced a $3 billion contract with Cape Wind -- the wind farm off Nantucket Sound.

Well, it turns out the Massachusetts attorney general wants to see if this a good deal for the taxpayer.

Conventionally-generated electricity costs about ten (10) cents per unit (KWH). The price National Grid will pay for wind-generated electricity: slightly more than 20 cents per unit (KWH), and that cost is rising at a 3.5% annual rate for the foreseeable future.

Maybe the Kennedy family will yet see the demise of the wind farm off the(ir) coast sometime in their lifetime. I'm not holding my breath.

*****

Update, May 23, 2010: Today, there's an opinion piece in the Boston Globe's Sunday supplement, "Boston Uncommon" by Tom Keane about Cape Wind, with the title, "Memo to Cape Wind Foes: Enough Already."

He calls it like it is, showing the hypocrisy of liberal politicians, like Ted Kennedy, strongly in favor of "green energy" as long as it is not in their backyard. Keane strikes every argument, except one, and says the project is finally going to move forward. The one argument Keane conveniently forgot to address: the project is not economically viable.  The cost for energy production is at least twice that of conventionally-generated electricity, and the technology cost is rising. And that cost increase is not inconsequential. Without huge subsidies from local, state, and Federal governments, the project is doomed. Unless the project is saved by new laws and regulations based on debunked myths.

But what struck me most was this (remember, the project has been in the making for nine years): the aerial view of Nantucket Sound off Hyannis Port revealed not one -- not one -- wind turbine yet. It will be a decade before all the wind turbines are put in -- that's my guess. I had thought with the recent announcement that National Grid had signed a 15-year contract to buy half of the electricity produced by Cape Wind that the turbines were up and ready to produce. But the turbines are not there.

Speaking of which, I wonder how the world's biggest off-shore wind farm, the London Thames array is coming along? Off-shore work for the first stage is due to begin in early 2011. We will see.