Oasis Went Public in Early 2010

Data Links 

Corporate presentation

3Q10 Summary

NEWS

SeekingAlpha on Oasis: highly recommended.

Company presentation, 2011 CAPEX, 2010 Summary, January, 2011.

Investopedia update, January 3, 2011.

Robust 2011 Outlook; December 18, 2010.

IPO

IPO: $350 million.  Prospectus at time of IPO.

• Price per share and date of IPO yet to be announced.
• How much ya wanna bet it will be over-subscribed?

***** 
Ramblings Before the IPO Was Announced
My Thoughts

September 30, 2010: Focus on Oasis as an investment. 

The Form S-1, March 4, 2010. Page 58 may be the most informative. Be sure to read the small print.

The small print is where I think the "money will be." The big print: the number of wells are the initial Bakken (formation) wells on 1280-acre spacing. The small print: the net acreage does not include infill wells and does not include Three Forks Sanish. In other words: the big print allows the company to keep drilling, to remain solvent; the small print provides the upside potential. Generally, small print means "bad news"; in this case, the small print is good news.

Four companies that are pure play in the Bakken and can be compared head-to-head:

KOG (Kodiak Oil and Gas)
NOG (Northern Oil and Gas)
OASIS
AEZ (American Energy)[Sold to Hess in 2010]

Data for KOG and NOG is available.
Data for AEZ not yet available; American Energy recently announced it will sell all Wyoming assets (Powder River Basin) for approximately $44 million and become a Bakken pure play company.

NOG is a "$14 stock."    40 million shares outstanding (rounded)
KOG is a "$3 stock."    120 million shares outstanding (rounded)

My back of the envelope calculations suggest a "fair" IPO based on NOG and KOG would be 30 million shares at $12/share. That seems high -- a "$12 share" company so they might have to go to 60 million shares for $6.00/share.

If a "better buy" than 60 million shares for $6.00/share, it might be an interesting play.

And don't forget: it only takes one monster well to be a "game-changer" for these small companies.

North Slope, Alaska, vs North Dakota: 2010

Average daily production from North Dakota in 2010 is about 250,000 bbls/day. Analysts expect that number will exceed 300,000 bbls/day and will be increasing by the end of the year. Analysts expect that maximum daily production in North Dakota will plateau around 400,000 bbls/day within several years.

For comparison's sake, oil production from the North Slope, Alaska, is 665,000 bbls/day and falling.

USGS Website

I feel remiss in not having alerted readers to this site earlier, the USGS website. It is now interactive and very, very good.

It appears to me that the Bakken is already exceeding the USGS' conservative estimates. It should also be noted for those new to the Bakken that the 2008 USGS survey of the Bakken was just that: a survey of the Bakken pool (the Bakken formations and the Three Forks Sanish formations) and did not include the eleven or twelve other formations in the Williston Basin that produce oil.

Another reminder: the Bakken is a huge, huge deal for those living and working in North Dakota. It may or may not be a big deal to the rest of the world. Time will tell, but already North Dakota is now the fourth largest oil producing state in the United States, and the producing area represents only a small area of North Dakota.

Another Orion Belt: Hess in Alger Field

For those keeping track of multi-well pads, here's one I neglected to mention a few days ago. The permits were granted March 22, 2010. This is in Alger field, just west of Stanley, and west of the prolific Sanish and Parshall oil fields.

This "Orion Belt" is owned by Hess. These will be three long laterals, all starting in section 30-155-93 and going north into section 19. Will these three wells target three formations (MB, UTF, or LTF) or is one of these a monitoring well? 

18838, EN-Abrahamson-155-93-3019H-1
18839, EN-Abrahamson-155-93-3019H-2
18840, EN-Abrahamson-155-93-3019H-3