tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post6608396588127932297..comments2024-03-28T15:12:38.709-05:00Comments on The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog): Yup, It's Dead -- The Keystone XL 1.0 -- Now, Keystone XL 2.0 Is Dead -- Looking Forward to Keystone XL 3.0 -- The Bakken, North Dakota, USABruce Oksolhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-86484283371225660212012-01-02T23:21:16.314-06:002012-01-02T23:21:16.314-06:00Thank you for your kind comments.
When I stick t...Thank you for your kind comments. <br /><br />When I stick to the Bakken, I have to admit, there is a lot of good information here. It is quite interesting to go back and read earlier posts on the Bakken. It's hard to believe that it's only been about three years. It's amazing how far "we've" come. <br /><br />The Keystone is a "funny" issue. I truly lost interest in the Keystone once it became fully politicized, but due to readers' input, it seems I have devoted more space to it than I ever imagined. Every time I want to stop talking about it, something new pops up.<br /><br />I always check out the URLs/links before posting a comment, and your links presented a very balanced view. I was happy to post it.<br /><br />So, we'll see.Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-849091024462362692012-01-02T23:15:30.580-06:002012-01-02T23:15:30.580-06:00Bruce, Thank you again for the humongous amount o...Bruce, Thank you again for the humongous amount of the time and energy you have devoted over the past several years to maintaining, updating, and upgrading one of the most informative shale oil blogs on the internet. <br /><br />It still boggles my mind where you find the time and energy at this stage of your life to do it all by yourself. In addition to all your other accomplishments, you must be a computer internet blog genius to be able to constantly update and maintain all the side bar topics on your Million Dollar Way Blog. <br /><br />Also, I would like to particularly thank you for the expeditious and excellent manner in which you have responded to my recent Keystone XL comments to you. Thanx and Good Luck and Good Bakken Investing. HLW3333 January 2, 2012 11:06 PMAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-47966996288823328282012-01-02T21:59:17.173-06:002012-01-02T21:59:17.173-06:00Thank you very much for such a complete post/comme...Thank you very much for such a complete post/comment.<br /><br />Because one cannot click on URLs within comments, I have re-posted all those links up in the main body.<br /><br />Again, thank you. It will be interesting to follow this issue, but I do believe that the President will accept a new submission from TransCanada for Keystone XL 2.0, and that the review will be completed as "expeditiously as possible," code for "after the election."Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-38366339257765330802012-01-02T11:54:07.357-06:002012-01-02T11:54:07.357-06:00I agree completely; it's all about politics an...I agree completely; it's all about politics and money, not science. These stories end up with strange bedfellows: in this case faux-liberals and Big Oil (TransCanada): both are in a win-win or a lose-lose depending on how it all turns out. <br /><br />TransCanada has to be worried -- or at least its investors have to be worried -- that the Keystone XL does not turn into a Pyrrhic victory: a victory with such a devastating cost to the victor that it carries the implication that another such victory will ultimately cause defeat (Wiki).Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-2692797917105164982012-01-02T11:47:14.240-06:002012-01-02T11:47:14.240-06:00Obama can stall the Keystone making his environmen...Obama can stall the Keystone making his environmental friends happy. This allows his money friends to get on the right side of the money to be made from the eventual location of and completion of the inevitable pipeline.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-79771354989751865422011-12-31T15:32:26.161-06:002011-12-31T15:32:26.161-06:00See my post of December 31, 2011, which I just add...See my post of December 31, 2011, which I just added after reading the above comment. <br /><br />That's why I love the blog; and, I really appreciate the education the Air Force gave me in strategic decision-making. The TransCanada Keystone XL is a case study in strategic decision making.<br /><br />Several big things were happening all at once when the Keystone XL was being mapped: a) change in US administration -- to an administration out to kill the fossil fuel industry; b) the Bakken potential was not yet known; c) some folks saw the Canadian oil sands as essential for the US d) pipelines are the safest means to ship oil, but a series of oil leaks just as Keystone XL was being publicly discussed in the mainstream media complicated that message; e) Warren Buffett buys Burlington Northern which had its own agenda. <br /><br />There are probably issues I'm missing but this would be enough for a case study.Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-48557997440860863392011-12-31T15:06:56.351-06:002011-12-31T15:06:56.351-06:00Bruce the question of why TransCanada didn't u...Bruce the question of why TransCanada didn't use more of its existing Keystone 1 easements / rights-of-way mystified me for some time. <br /><br />I finally decided that a project of this size and complexity must have presented management with multiple choices. Therefore, economics, various pipeline logistical considerations, and their view of the political environment in each state had to dictate their final choice. <br /><br />FWIW, in November of this year here is what a TransCanada spokesperson had to say on the subject:<br /><br />November 2011 Alberta Beef Magazine - Keystone spokesperson Darren Paquin, Stakeholder Relations, talks about the Keystone project. <br /><br />Q: What is the process when dealing with landowners to run the pipeline on their property? <br /><br />A: For all Phases of Keystone, we work closely with our landowners to come to a negotiated settlement. We consult with landowners from the planning stage, pre-construction, construction and post construction stages of the project to ensure we minimize disruption, address any concerns as quickly as possible and generally, to ensure we continue to build on the strong relationships we’ve had with our landowners during more than 60 years of operations.<br /><br />When we propose a new pipeline project, we try to parallel existing rights-of-way, whenever possible, to minimize new disturbance. <br /><br />For example, in Canada, Keystone XL parallels the Keystone Phase 1 for most of the Alberta portion of the line and then parallels the Foothills Pipeline in Saskatchewan to the U.S. border. The majority of the landowners on the Canadian section have had pipelines on their land for many years.<br /><br />See http://albertabeef.ca/displayarticle/?sel_record=3851 for the full interview.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-90314192416482345102011-12-31T12:21:49.574-06:002011-12-31T12:21:49.574-06:00Outstanding.
I'm on my iPad so I can't wr...Outstanding.<br /><br />I'm on my iPad so I can't write much now; will do so later.<br /><br />But you are one of the few, and I agree with you, that understands how much oil the Bakken is capable of producing. Every estimate of adequate / needed takeaway capacity has been wrong, or hasn't kept up. <br /><br />This all begs the question why pipeline companies don't just use the easements / rights-of-way they already have/had, something others have said. Having said that, I think I know the reason, but, as noted, on the iPad, I need to expand later.<br /><br />But I really appreciate this info re: TransCanada and the Bakken pipeline. Later, I will include it as a stand-alone post.<br /><br />Thank you very much for commenting.Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-25892751688913820442011-12-31T11:34:05.091-06:002011-12-31T11:34:05.091-06:00Bruce, I inadvertently omitted the following impor...Bruce, I inadvertently omitted the following important PS from my House of Representatives Keystone XL Hearing comment on 12/31/2011. Sorry.<br /><br />PS: See page 17(18) of the Energy Policy Research Foundation Inc’s November 29, 2010 report at http://www.eprinc.org/pdf/oilsandsvalue.pdf that is the basis of the estimated $600 million in annual net economic benefits that North Dakota and Montana Bakken oil producers would get from the completion of TransCanada’s proposed XL pipeline project expansion. <br /> <br />If you read the following “stuff” TransCanada appears to be linking its Bakken Marketlink Project for transporting Bakken sweet light with its Keystone XL pipeline expansion project for heavy Canadian sands oil in order to get US approval for its Keystone XL project. Whether or not the Bakken Marketlink Project will proceed without a US Keystone XL Project OK is unclear to me. <br />See http://www.transcanada.com/bakken.html and <br />The BakkenLink common stream is expected to be light sweet crude, comparable to North Dakota Light Sweet, having a gravity range of 37-45 API and a sulfur content of 0.2% or less.<br />http://www.bakkenlink.com/pdf/Notice_of_Open_Season_Final%209_27_10.pdf<br /><br />Christopher E. Smith OGJ Pipeline Editor HOUSTON, Jan. 21 -- TransCanada Corp. has concluded its open season for the Bakken Marketlink Project to deliver US-sourced crude from Baker, Mont., to Cushing, Okla., securing 65,000 b/d of firm, term contracts. Bakken Marketlink WILL USE PIPELINE FACILITIES THAT FORM PART of TransCanada’s Keystone XL system, which will run in close proximity to the Bakken crude producing regions within the Williston basin. TransCanada expects Keystone XL to be in service first-quarter 2013, subject to regulatory approvals. <br /><br />TransCanada closed a binding open season on its Cushing Marketlink project Nov. 19, the same day it closed the Bakken Marketlink open season, and is still evaluating bids. The project would involve construction of $70 million of facilities at Cushing and use facilities making up part of Keystone XL to deliver crude to near existing terminals in Nederland, Tex. (OGJ Online, Sept. 8, 2010). Once TransCanada finishes bid evaluation on Cushing Marketlink it will decide whether to proceed with regulatory applications. Assuming TransCanada moves forward with the project, it anticipates placing Cushing Marketlink in service first-quarter 2013 as well. Contact Christopher E. Smith at chriss@ogjonline.com.<br />http://www.ogj.com/articles/2011/01/transcanada-secures.html<br /><br />Maybe I’m all wrong, but it appears to me that the amount of crude oil coming out of the North Dakota Oil Shale wells is far exceeding the capacity of the existing rail, trucking, and pipeline infrastructure to get that crude oil to market as cheaply and efficiently as is potentially possible. And that situation is going to continue to increase the bottom line expenses of North Dakota Shale Oil producers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-14915997061524938682011-12-31T08:36:42.187-06:002011-12-31T08:36:42.187-06:00Regarding this quote from the comment above:
Luci...Regarding this quote from the comment above:<br /><br />Lucian further noted that "TransCanada is expanding Keystone XL's capability by offering BAKKEN OIL PRODUCERS, LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA and MONTANA, a chance to link into the pipeline and send their crude to Gulf Coast refineries FOR THE FIRST TIME."<br /><br />First, this is disingenuous: TransCanada fought to stop this (allowing Bakken oil to be added). It was a condition imposed upon them by the Montana governor.<br /><br />Second, it is now dated and no longer factually true: Bakken oil has already reached the Gulf refineries -- on a 100-tanker unit train out of Dickinson, North Dakota. This occurred in November, 2011, and was one of the big stories for 2011.<br /><br />In addition, now that Enbride is going to reverse the flow of oil in its Seaway pipeline, Bakken oil can get to the coast via pipeline WITHOUT the TransCanada Keystone pipeline.<br /><br />Any connection that TransCanada makes for shipping Bakken oil is simply political, trying to gain support for its pipeline. <br /><br />As noted in my comment above, this whole issue is moot: no "smart" operator is going to add great oil (Bakken sweet light) to bad oil (heavy Canadian sands oil).Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-59002829384271761712011-12-31T08:30:26.082-06:002011-12-31T08:30:26.082-06:00Well, let's see.
When I first started bloggi...Well, let's see. <br /><br />When I first started blogging about the Keystone XL, I wanted to make sure folks understood I did not have investments in TransCanada. In that regard (investments), it did not matter to me whether Keystone XL succeeded or not. In fact, initially, TransCanada fought to deny any US oil being added to the pipeline; it was the governor of Montana that forced TransCanada to agree to adding Bakken oil to the Keystone.<br /><br />In fact, it is unlikely that any "smart" operator will add Bakken light sweet oil (the best on earth; almost needs no refining) to the heavy dirty Canadian oil in the TransCanada Keystone pipeline.<br /><br />Already Enbridge will only ship Bakken sweet light oil in its pipelines. Enbridge is way ahead of everybody on this one.<br /><br />One of the biggest stories of the year was Enbridge, a pipeline company, building a crude-by-rail oil loading terminal: my hunch is they are doing that to carry non-Bakken oil. <br /><br />It appears Enbridge, Burlington Northern, and others will manage to provide all the takeaway capacity for the Bakken without the Keystone.<br /><br />Again, no "smart" operator is going to mix Bakken sweet light crude with heavy dirty oil. And to the best of my knowledge they are not going to lay multiple pipelines along the Keystone XL route for various types of oil.<br /><br />Bottom line: I still have no emotional ties to the Keystone one way or the other; and no investments tied into TransCanada.Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-59020157712711794072011-12-31T08:16:46.792-06:002011-12-31T08:16:46.792-06:00Bruce, IMHO the “dog you do have in this fight” is...Bruce, IMHO the “dog you do have in this fight” is your “beloved” Million Dollar "Bakken" Way. See excerpt below:<br /><br />"Immediate approval of TransCanada's Keystone Expansion pipeline is of increasing importance given the declining production in Venezuela and Mexico, extensive volatility in the Middle East, rising oil prices and growing constraints in efficiently moving crude oil to major refining centers in the mid-continent and on the Gulf Coast," testified Lucian Pugliaresi, President, Energy Policy Research Foundation, Inc. <br /><br />Lucian further noted that "TransCanada is expanding Keystone XL's capability by offering BAKKEN OIL PRODUCERS, LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA and MONTANA, a chance to link into the pipeline and send their crude to Gulf Coast refineries FOR THE FIRST TIME. <br /><br />By increasing transport efficiency and allowing Bakken producers to tap into new Gulf Coast refinery markets, the KEYSTONE XL PROJECT will have the added benefit of improving wellhead values for oil production from the Bakken formation. <br /><br />EPRINC estimates that the Keystone expansion would provide net economic benefits from improved efficiencies in BOTH THE TRANSPORTATION and PROCESSING of CRUDE OIL of AS MUCH AS $600 MILLION ANNUALLY, in addition to an immediate boost in construction employment." <br /><br />From Importance of Keystone Pipeline Discussed by U.S. House of Representatives & Leading Experts at: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_pwwi/is_201104/ai_n57192713/?tag=content;col1 which was an article about a public hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere before members of the U.S. House of Representatives.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-30539735733174034472011-12-30T08:08:35.700-06:002011-12-30T08:08:35.700-06:00My hunch is that the whole project has become a ca...My hunch is that the whole project has become a cause célèbre. It is no longer based on science or reality, but has become completely political.<br /><br />The aquifer is a McGuffin, and anti-growth folks will fight any new proposal. <br /><br />My understanding is that the animosity in Texas is even worse. <br /><br />Again, I have no dog in this fight, but one can argue that the Keystone XL as originally proposed is dead. The company has agreed to submit a plan for a new route.Bruce Oksolhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10952652803684625738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1149283829854298377.post-43717835911545462792011-12-30T07:42:25.015-06:002011-12-30T07:42:25.015-06:00December 30, 2011 Hi Bruce, The Keystone XL pipeli...December 30, 2011 Hi Bruce, The Keystone XL pipeline may be delayed but its far from dead. See the following article for the latest update. <br /><br />Map used to reroute Keystone XL pipeline - Tulsa World - BY JOSH FUNK Associated Press Friday, December 30, 2011 12/30/2011 4:49:50 AM - OMAHA, Neb. - <br /><br />The Canadian company that wants to build a $7 billion pipeline to carry tar sands oil across the Plains to refineries near the Gulf of Mexico now has an official map of environmentally sensitive areas to avoid in Nebraska. State officials said Thursday that TransCanada will have to use a 10-year-old map of the Sandhills region as it develops a new route through Nebraska for the proposed Keystone XL pipeline. TransCanada agreed in November to develop the new route through Nebraska to avoid the environmentally sensitive Sandhills. "Obviously, the applicant cannot propose the route without knowing the area to be avoided," said Mike Linder, director of the Nebraska Department of Environmental Quality. <br />See http://www.tulsaworld.com/site/printerfriendlystory.aspx?articleid=20111230_49_E4_OAAeTe105<br />for the full article. <br /><br />Also for an excellent summary of the Nebraska political situation see - Energy Pipeline News an online newsletter about petroleum and natural gas pipelines - Vol. 12, No. 24 December 15, 2011 Items 22,23,24,25 and 26 at : <br />http://www.energypipelinenews.com/EPN_Subscriber_Site/dec__issue_2.htm (Gets you the 12/15/11 issue and <br />http://www.energypipelinenews.com/EPN_Subscriber_Site/ will get you the current month's issue<br /><br />Best wishes for A Happy, Healthy, and Wealthy New Year to You and Yours.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com