Wednesday, March 3, 2021

These Are Simply Staggering; Huge MRO Wells; One Well Producing At 100K Bbls/First Month -- March 3, 2021

To see record IPs in the Bakken, link here

This page will not be updated.

The MRO "Chauncey-Winona" pad is tracked here.

These are the wells; production data is updated here, and wells not previously reporting production are now reporting production:

The wells:

  • 37089, drl-->drl/NC, MRO, Jonah USA ... 2H, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 105K 2/21; see below;
  • 36221, drl-->drl/NC, MRO, Daniel USA ... 2TFH-2B, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 122K 2/21; see below;
  • 36222, drl-->conf, MRO, Morsette USA ... 2H, first production, 1/21; t--; cum 100K 2/21; see below;
  • 36223, drl-->conf, MRO, Sherman USA ... 2TFH, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 130K 2/21; see below;
  • 36224, drl-->conf, MRO, Valarie USA ... 2H, first production, 12/20; t--; cum 120K 2/21; see below;
  • 33412, 6,509, MRO, Winona USA 21-2TFH-2B, t4/18; cum 596K 2/21; Three Forks B2; 45 stages; 10 million lbs, 73,742 bbls + 100,353 mcf (16,722 boe) = 90,465 bod in less than four months; off line 3/20; back on line 8/20; nice return to production;
  • 33413, 8,475, MRO, Chauncey USA 31-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 479K 2/21; back on line 8/20; production okay; off line 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21;
  • 33414, 5,524, MRO, Wilbur USA 31-2TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t4/18; cum 429K 2/21; did not come off line; early on, but now it's off line as of 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21;
  • 33415, 7,572, MRO, June USA 31-2H, Antelope-Sanish, t3/18; cum 566K 2/21; did not come off line early on, but now it's off line as of 11/20; remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21;
  • 33416, 4,892, MRO, Miles USA 41-2TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t4/18; cum 365K 2/21; did not come off line early on, but now its off line as of 11/20; and remains off line 1/21; back on line 2/21;

36224,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20215797152016
12-20203435421900

36223,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20215789158189
12-20202759917679

36222, 58,629 bbls over 18 days extrapolates to 97,607 bbls over 30 days:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-202118585645805627015649584656718262
SANISH12-2020465641361640160

36221, 84,005 bbls over 25 days extrapolates to 100,806 bbls over 30 days:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH1-2021258400583278508121211579184529058
SANISH12-20202188184426119501185

37089, 52,960 bbls over 17 days extrapolates to 93,459 bbls over 30 days:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH2-20212752306521472254671870680763624
SANISH1-20211752960525031863948605405267967
SANISH12-202051751711937260716

Random Update Of Two MRO Pads In Reunion Bay -- Huge Wells -- March 3, 2021

This post will not be updated. 

MRO's L-O-T-V pad is tracked here

The wells on this pad came off the confidential list some time ago but are now back on the confidential list. 

Note the runs being reported; these are huge wells: 

36922,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20212648439050
12-20205548670260
11-20202653928983
10-20206360744020


36921,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20216406099574
12-20202961839272
11-20204561556518

36923,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20213377048418
12-20206198274423
11-20204755859299
10-20202128218886

37323,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
1-20214573267215
12-20205796173471
11-20206760
10-20204919443525


To the south of this pad is another MRO pad, the "Waltom USA" pad: P-R-S-4W..

  • 21630: a jump in production from 2,000 bbls/month to 5,400 bbls/month;
  • 21631: a jump in productio from 3,000 bbls/month to 4,000 bbls/month;
  • 33945: 175K in four months;
  • 33946: 121K in four months;
  • 33947: 173K in 3.75 months
  • 37395: 204K in less than 5 months;
  • 37403: 153K in less than 4 months;

CLR's Tallahassee FIU

Updates

January 22, 2022: the five newest Harrisburg wells are now being drilled, according to the NDIC map.

  • 38185, conf, very minimal production, 11/21;
  • 38186, conf, very minimal production, 11/21;
  • 38187, conf, very minimal production,  11/21;
  • 38188, conf, being drilled but no production data;

 

  • 38189, to the east of the four-well pad above, conf, very minimal production, 11/21;

Original Post

Five new permits, #38185 - #38189, inclusive, March 3, 2021:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Baker (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for five Tallahassee FIU wells in SESW/SWSE 21-153-101; this is just east of Indian Hill on the south side of the river, south of Williston; west of Last Chance, Crazy Man Creek, Willow Creek;
      • 38185, 7-21H, 349 FSL 2526 FWL;
      • 38186, 6-21H, 304 FSL 2526 FWL;
      • 38187, 5-21H, 259 FSL 2526 FWL;
      • 38188, 4-21HSL, 214 FSL 2526 FWL;
      • 38189, 8-21HSL, 230 FSL 1530 FEL  (the DAR had the wrong name; corrected here)
    • there are currently three older producing Tallahasse wells in drilling unit sections 16/21-153-101:
  • 21124, t11/11; cum 293K 1/20; off line as of 9/21; cum 299K 8/21;
  • 25158, t4/14; cum 176K 1/20; off line as of 9/21; cum 181K 8/21;
  • 25157, t4/14; cum 89K 1/20; off line as of 9/21; cum 91K 8/21;

Ya Think? -- March 3, 2021

One year ago, "we" were told the "restrictions" / lockdown would last three weeks to flatten the curve.

To the best of my knowledge, only two states have lifted restrictions, Texas and Mississippi.

On the other hand, this will be a great science experiment. 

Let's see what happens three weeks after "spring break" in Texas vs "spring break" in states that have not lifted restrictions.

Link here. At the link spring break dates by college / university.

  • by far, the #1 week: March 6 - March 13 (next week)
  • #2: March 13 - March 20 (most of the Texas schools?)
  • #3: March 20 - March 27

Spring break popular destinations:
  • Texas: South Padre Island
  • Florida: Panama City Beach
  • Colorado Ski
  • International: Cancun, Cabo, and the Jamaica

The WPX Rubia / Topaz Wells Have Been Updated -- March 3, 2021

This page will not be updated.

The WPX Rubia / Topaz wells have been updated. These are incredible wells. 

Example, note the small frack:

  • 37319, loc/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HB, Mandaree, fast frack; 9/19/20 - 9/25/20; another small frack, 5.2 million gallons of water, 83% of water by mass; t--: cum 24K over 8 days; cum 202K 1/21; fracked 9/19/20 - 9/25/20; 5.2 million gallons of water; 83% water by mass; 23,770 bbls over 8 days extrapolates to 89,138 bbls;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20213163681634452066576520695480
BAKKEN12-20202952234522692367254532467732020
BAKKEN11-202030618886185025198646113465223186
BAKKEN10-2020823770236148653248161137210862

Back To 15 Active Rigs; CLR With Five New Permits -- March 3, 2021

Active rigs:

$61.28
3/3/202103/03/202003/03/201903/03/201803/03/2017
Active Rigs1550675945

Five new permits, #38185 - #38189, inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Baker (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for five Tallahassee FIU wells in SESW/SWSE 21-153-101; this is just east of Indian Hill on the south side of the river, south of Williston; west of Last Chance, Crazy Man Creek, Willow Creek;
      • 38185, 7-21H, 349 FSL 2526 FWL;
      • 38186, 6-21H, 304 FSL 2526 FWL;
      • 38187, 5-21H, 259 FSL 2526 FWL;
      • 38188, 4-21HSL, 214 FSL 2526 FWL;
      • 38189, 4-21HSL (sic; most likely 3-21HSL), 230 FSL 1530 FEL
    • there are currently three older producing Tallahasse wells in drilling unit sections 16/21-153-101:
      • 21124, t11/11; cum 293K 1/20;
      • 25158, t4/14; cum 176K 1/20;
      • 25157, t4/14; cum 89K 1/20;
Three permits renewed:
  • EOG (2): two Hardscrabble permits in Williams County;
  • Slawson: one Tempest Federal permit in Williams County;

A WPX Morsette Well Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- March 3, 2021

This page will not be updated.

The WPX Birdbear / Morsette wells are tracked here

This well has just gone over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative:

  • 18803, 1,066, WPX, Morsette 35-26H, Spotted Horn, t10/10; cum 505K 1/21; off line as of 7/19; remains off line 9/19; coming back on line 2/20;

A WPX Good Voice Well In Squaw Creek Has Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- March 3, 2021

This page will not be updated.

The WPX Good Voice wells are tracked here.

This well has just gone over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative oil:

  • 27068, 502, WPX, Good Voice 34-27HD, Squaw Creek, t11/14; cum 517K 1/21; off line while neighboring wells fracked; off line for about five months; now back on line as of 1/19;

A WPX Arikara Well Has Just Gone Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- March 3, 2021

This page will not be updated.

The WPX Arikara wells in Reunion Bay are tracked here.

This Arikara well has just gone over 500K bbls crude oil cumulative:

  • 23966, 2,086, WPX, Arikara 15-22HY, Reunion Bay, t3/18; cum 507K 1/21;

The XTO Admundson Wells In Siverston Oil Field -- March 3, 2021

This page will not be updated. 

This is a microcosm of the Bakken, and why rigs don't matter (don't take that out of context) and how Hubbert's theory does not apply. 

XTO has two 5-well Admundson pads in Siverston oil field. 

Recently several of the Admundson wells were taken off line for no apparent operational reason except apparently for "managing assets" during a period of very low oil prices. 

Except for one Admundson well, all the Admundson wells have returned to production. No rigs were needed; no fracking was required; XTO simply brought the wells back on line. 

In many cases, production doubled that production just before the well was taken off line. Rig counts did not matter. Frack spreads did not matter. But this was happening across the Bakken, affecting tens of thousands of Bakken wells. 

And it should be noted, we're not seeing many DUCs being reported completed on the daily activity reports.

Here are the Admundson wells; production data has been updated:

First 5-well pad:

  • 29074, 1,400, XTO, Amundson 34X-22A, Siverston, t7/15; cum 249K 1/21;
  • 29058, 1,728, XTO, Amundson 34X-22B, Siverston, t6/15; cum 233K 1/21;
  • 29060, 1,933, XTO, Amundson 34X-22C, Siverston, t7/15; cum 222K 1/21;
  • 29057, 1,973, XTO, Amundson 34X-22E, Siverston, t71/5; cum 150K 1/21;
  • 29059, 1,849, XTO, Amundson 34X-33F, Siverston, t7/15; cum 142K 1/21;
2nd 5-well pad:
  • 21602, IA/732, XTO, Amundson 44-22NWH, 16 stages, 182K lbs of proppant, t6/12; cum 144K 1/20; remains off line 6/20;
  • 30752, 1,266, XTO, Amundson 44X-22CXD, t2/16; cum 204K 1/21;
  • 30751, 912, XTO, Amundson 44X-22H, t2/16; cum 174K 1/21; remains off line 7/20; back on line 1/21;
  • 30750, 1,656, XTO, Amundso 44X-22D, t2/16; cum 212K 1/21; remains off line 7/20; back on line 10/20;
  • 30749, 1,873, XTO, Amundson 44X-22HXE, t2/16; cum 194K 1/21; was taken off line 9/20; back on line 1/21;

Let's look at the production data for the past few months:

29074:

  • off line for 5 months
  • production jumped from 1800 bbls to 2700 bbls when returned to production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202131269828841004560155570
BAKKEN12-20201620581686607357835390
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-2020001300000
BAKKEN7-20202713791579737463346040
BAKKEN6-20203017871637903623461980
BAKKEN5-20203118551818975657665420

29058:

  • not taken off line recently;

29060:

  • not taken off line recently;

29057:

  • not taken off line recently;

29059:

  • off line for 5 months:
  • production doubled, from 1121 bbls to 2142 bbls:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202131214221271527422641930
BAKKEN12-202012734601744644590
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-202000790000
BAKKEN7-202023841969600231322990
BAKKEN6-20203011211035879328632670

21602: the only Admundson well that remains off line.

30752:

  • off line for 4 months:
  • production up slightly when it was returned to production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202124168315671196291328900
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-202000450000
BAKKEN9-202063275102289269160
BAKKEN8-202031171416381489506850280

30751:

  • off line for 9 months
  • production jumped from 1252 bbls over 23 days to 2638 bbls over 22 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202122263824562805579457480
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-20200000000
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-202000910000
BAKKEN4-202023125212762200788278540

30750:

  • off line for 4.5 months
  • production went from 2000 bbls to 4000 bbls when it returned to production:
BAKKEN10-20203138703347346610253101200
BAKKEN9-2020110490883293250
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-202000450000
BAKKEN5-202013464567572339133740
BAKKEN4-20203020402036211112908128620

30749:

  • off line for 4 months
  • production doubled from 859 bbls over 17 days to 1368 bbls over 19 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-202119136812741676259325720
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000
BAKKEN10-2020001180000
BAKKEN9-202017859955854363135900

Gasoline Demand -- March 3, 2021

Link here.

The gasoline demand reported by EIA does not support / corroborate that reported by GasBuddy. GasBuddy said gasoline demand jumped last week to the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic started. Link here.

This Just Blows Me Away -- On So Many Levels -- March 3, 2021

This simply blows me away, on so many levels. 

Link here.

Weekly EIA petroleum data:

  • the time line:
    • Texas Freeze; power lost: February 15, 2021
    • power back on: February 19, 2021
    • commerce back to normal: February 22, 2021
  • US crude oil in storage increased by 21.6 million bbls from the previous week;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 484.6 million bbls, only 3% above the five year average for this time of year
  • refineries were operating at 56.0% of their operable capacity last week  (week ending February 26, 2021)

Link here.

From February 17, 2021, right during the height of the Texas Freeze:

Today, over at CNN Business: what does Warren Buffett see in Chevron? The lede:

Many investors are increasingly hesitant to hold shares of oil and gas companies as a global energy transition gathers steam. 
Not Warren Buffett.What's happening: Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway just disclosed a new stake in Chevron (CVX), the second largest oil firm in the United States. 
The $4.1 billion investment could have been spearheaded by Berkshire investment managers Ted Weschler and Todd Combs. But Buffett still runs the show, and it's a sign that the world's most famous investor sees long-term value in a sector that's taking plenty of heat. 
Chevron shares plunged to their lowest level since 2006 when the pandemic destroyed oil prices last March, and they've failed to fully recover. The company posted a net loss of $5.5 billion for 2020, and its stock is now trading at $93.13, 15% lower than one year ago.

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report -- For Week Ending February 26, 2021

Updates

March 4, 2021: from a reader who follows this very, very closely -- see comments below.

It's notable that no one saw this coming; some headlines on the report indicate a "surprise" build in crude supplies. 
Before the report, forecasts were for a 1,805,000 barrel withdrawal. 
Nor was there any recent news indicating longer term refinery damage; i.e., one recent headline said "oil prices mixed as refineries reopen."  
There was also a 1,386,000 barrel per day swing in the balance sheet fudge factor that I follow; without that, we would have had a 30 million barrel build. 
Zero Hedge: API had Cushing +732K barrels; EIA had Cushing +485K.

Original Post 

Re-posting.

Link here.

Weekly EIA petroleum data:

  • US crude oil in storage increased by 21.6 million bbls from the previous week;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 484.6 million bbls, only 3% above the five year average for this time of year
  • refineries were operating at 56.0% of their operable capacity last week  (week ending February 26, 2021)
    • the time line:
      • Texas Freeze; power lost: February 15, 2021
      • power back on: February 19, 2021
      • commerce back to normal: February 22, 2021
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 9.7 million bbls; 2% below the five-year average for this time of year;
  • propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.2 million bbls; 17% below the five-year average for this time of year
  • jet fuel product supplied was down 24.2% compared with same four-week period last year

It will be interesting to see the "all" the data when Focus on Fracking posts Sunday night.  

Re-balancing:


Generally, US crude oil in storage varies by one to five million bbls week-over-week. I don't recall a build of almost 22 million bbls in one week. And yet ... US crude oil in storage is pretty much at the 5-year average. And almost none of that increase was due to imports.

Energy independence? Sorry. Not sorry.

Energy Emissions Are Rebounding Above Pre-Crisis Levels -- IEA -- March 3, 2021

Global energy emissions: Link here

Energy emissions are rebounding above pre-crisis levels. It must be all those coal plants in China. Most of the rest of the world is still shut down and when the IEA was doing this study -- several weeks ago -- the world was most definitely shut down. 

So, if that's accurate, that energy emissions are rebounding above pre-crisis levels and the world is pretty much still shut down, it begs the question: exactly what is causing that rise in emissions?

It looks like we need to "double-down" on shutting down the global economy. 

Texas Freeze: is over, but now extreme winds in northeast leave nearly 1280,000 people without power. High winds knocked out power from New York to Maine. This was reported back on March 2, 2021. I assume things are back to normal. 

Trucking industry: thriving from coronavirus-linked e-commerce boom. It's a triumph for the carriers who are facing demands for more frequent shipments, which is booting revenues and pricing leverage.

**************************************
Weekly EIA Petroleum Report

Link here.

Weekly EIA petroleum data:

  • US crude oil in storage increased by 21.6 million bbls from the previous week;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 484.6 million bbls, only 3% above the five year average for this time of year
  • refineries were operating at 56.0% of their operable capacity last week  (week ending February 26, 2021)
    • the time line:
      • Texas Freeze; power lost: February 15, 2021
      • power back on: February 19, 2021
      • commerce back to normal: February 22, 2021
  • distillate fuel inventories decreased by 9.7 million bbls; 2% below the five-year average for this time of year;
  • propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.2 million bbls; 17% below the five-year average for this time of year
  • jet fuel product supplied was down 24.2% compared with same four-week period last year

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential LIst; Both DUCs; Update On Gulf Coast Crude Oil Export Terminals -- RBN Energy -- March 3, 2021

Active rigs:

$60.63
3/3/202103/03/202003/03/201903/03/201803/03/2017
Active Rigs1450675945

Two wells coming off confidential list -- Wednesday, March 3, 2021: 6 for the month, 62 for the quarter, 62 for the year.

  • 37704, drl/NC, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-11C-2-1HS, Charlson, first production, --; t--; cum --;
  • 37307, drl/NC, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HY, Spotted Horn, first production, --; t--; cum --;

RBN Energy: three Gulf Coast crude oil export terminals winning battle for barrels. Archived.

Week by week, more than 20 terminals along the U.S. Gulf Coast export crude oil, but nearly half of the total export volumes are being loaded at just three facilities: the Moda Midstream terminal near Corpus Christi, the Enterprise Hydrocarbon Terminal in Houston, and the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) off the Louisiana coast. What gives these “Big 3” their edge? Location? Pipeline connectivity? Storage capacity? Loading rate? The answer, of course, is “all of the above.” There is more to the story, though, and other terminals are angling to become bigger players, presumably at the expense of the Big 3 themselves. Today, we begin a series on Texas and Louisiana’s largest oil export facilities, what they offer, how they’ve fared, and what they’re planning next.

The terminals:

  • the Moda Midstream terminal near Corpus Christi;
  • the Enterprise Hydrocarbon Terminal in Houston; and,
  •  the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) off the Louisiana coast.

Elon Musk To Build Yet Another Manufacturing Plant In Texas -- March 3, 2021

At the sidebar at the right: themes, 2020.

From there: Re-locations: tracked here

This story is really note about another company re-locating to Texas. The company was already operating in Texas. This is simply about yet another huge manufacturing complex being built in Texas.

In Austin, to be more specific.

Texas, which already boats NASA's Johnson's Space Center in Houston and two of Elon Musk's Space X facilities, is expanding its universe further with word that Musk is building a new manufacturing plant in Austin, Texas.

Musk's aerospace company revealed the plans in a new job posting for an "Automation & Controls Engineer," which will focus on Starlink, a global high-speed internet service made up of a constellation of satellites. 
"To keep up with global demand, SpaceX is breaking ground on a new, state-of-the-art manufacturing facility in Austin, TX," the job posting reads. 
"The Automation & Controls Engineer will play a key role as we strive to manufacture millions of consumer facing devices that we ship directly to customers." 
The products will include Starlink dishes, Wi-Fi routers, mounting hardware and more.

So, when you read a story about Elon Musk's "Starlink" venture, think Austin.  

The story broke about the same time the Texas governor removed all Covid-19-pandemic related restrictions: no masks, no capacity restrictions where folks meet, eat, greet and sweat. 

******************************
Personal Note

About 2:30 p.m. yesterday, I noted that I was itching pretty much all over. Looking back on the "event" it appeared I was having a generalized allergic reaction, sort of a precursor to anaphylactic shock, and death. 

I mentioned it to Sophia -- that I was itching all over. I'm not sure why I mentioned it to her. Sophia is only six years old and even though her mom is a nurse, it's unlikely Sophia has learned much about medicine this early in life. Maybe I mentioned it to her in case the coroner asked her questions later on. 

The generalized itching resolved about thirty minutes later and I didn't think any more of it. I did notice a large (two-inch in diameter), slightly red, somewhat pruritic induration on my upper right thigh about an hour later but didn't think much about it, either. I attributed it to where my laptop had been resting, off and on, for the past several hours. 

Early this a.m., I woke up, fully rested, thinking it must be close to 6:30 a.m. It was 12:40 a.m.

Whatever.

But it was then that I noted a blister-like lesion in the center of the aforementioned induration on the right upper thigh -- it didn't look like a spider bite but that's all it could be. 

And, so the story is told. About 2:30 p.m. yesterday a spider or some such creepy crawler bit me in the right upper thigh. How it got there, I have no idea. Shortly after being bitten, I had a generalized allergic reaction.

The generalized allergic reaction resolved. I assume the very small blister and the induration will gradually go away also, perhaps over several days.

I am posting this so that if I wake up dead later this morning. folks will know why I'm not blogging.

Good night and good luck to all.

USPS Sticks With ICE's Despite Biden's Executive Order -- March 3, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

For those interested in e-trucks, this is a must read: Workhorse Electric delivery van builds are lagging, but backlog swells.

Over at FreightWaves via Yahoo!Finance, March 2, 2021.

WKHS:

  • trading in the mid- to high-teens
  • one year ago: < $3/share
  • market cap: $2 billion
  • P/E: N/A

Their truck plant is located in Union City, Indiana (a red state, which will be important later on as we will see).

So, this $2 billion company. How many trucks rolled off its assembly line in December, 2020? I don't know.

How many rolled off its assembly line in November, 2020?

I don't know that either.

But for the 4Q20, a whopping -- are you sitting down? -- a whopping seven trucks were built by the company. Seven trucks. And the company is worth $2 billion.

Okay.

But there is good news. The CEO says the company is scaling up [one would hope so]. 

We are facing various supply chain challenges, both internal and external," CEO Duane Hughes said on the company's Q4 earnings call Monday. "Given our backlog, we cannot sacrifice future build volume for current-year production. Scaling up manufacturing properly has to take precedence."

So, Workhorse will continue to take it slow, striving to build three of its composite-body battery-electric trucks a day in March with a plan to reach 10 trucks a day by the end of June.

The full-year goal of producing 1,800 trucks is a stretch, Hughes said. [At least he seems honest.]

The negligible volume also means Workhorse is paying more for parts and for delivery to the plant.

Now, back to that "red state" bit.

See another Freightwaves article, dated March 1, 2021:

Workhorse Group will meet face-to-face with the U.S. Postal Service on Wednesday and may fight to be included in the program for next-generation mail delivery trucks. 
The Cincinnati-based company was stunned last Tuesday when the Postal Service awarded a 10-year contract worth an initial $482 million to defense contractor Oshkosh Truck Co. for the Next Generation Delivery Vehicles. 
Workhorse was the only finalist in the competition offering a full battery-electric vehicle (BEV). 
Oshkosh submitted a gasoline-powered prototype for evaluation. 
It recently said it could provide about 10% electric trucks within the 50,000 to 165,000 mail trucks initially planned. 
Politics are becoming a factor in the Postal Service award, which followed years of delays. 
Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, a holdover from the Trump administration, reports to a nine-member board of governors. Three members were appointed by Trump. 
President Joe Biden recently filled three openings.Biden signed an executive order Jan. 25 requiring the nation’s 645,000-vehicle fleet to convert to electric vehicles. The Postal Service accounts for about 35% of those. 
DeJoy told a congressional subcommittee that he did not see reduced maintenance cost of electric vehicles providing a significant advantage over internal combustion engines. He also said charging infrastructure was expensive compared to maintenance. 
Both Ohio, home to Workhorse, and Wisconsin, which is Oshkosh’s base, are hotly contested states politically. Trump won Ohio in the November presidential election. Biden was victorious in Wisconsin.

Berkshire Hathaway Energy: One Of Warren's Four Jewels -- March 3, 2021

The four jewels, link at Barron's:

  • insurance (Geico), of course
  • Burlington Northern Santa Fe, probably valued at about $140 billion; pays a huge dividend
  • Apple, probably worth about $120 billion
  • Berkshire Hathaway Energy (which pays no dividend);
  • would be the fifth largest utility in the US if it were independent, publicly traded

Nice article, but I liked this comments from Jay Jensen better:

Congratulations to Andrew Bary for his skillful analysis of the value of BHE. $54 billion is probably a very close estimate.

Buffet's annual letter gives us the numbers to see what we are getting for the stock's $580 billion market cap.

We have $290 billion of stocks ($280 plus Heinz Kraft) and $150 billion of cash/short term bonds ($440 billion).


If we add in the value of the Berkshire Hathaway Insurance companies at approximately $140 billion, that sum equals the entire market cap of Berkshire.

Stocks plus cash plus Berkshire insurance equals the entire market cap of the company.That means that Berkshire shareholders get BNSF ($130 billion), BHE ($54 billion), Marmon, and all the other operating companies completely for free

.The annual report was criticized because it was "tone deaf" to the COVID crisis and concerns about racial injustice.We may be getting BNSF, BHE, and Marmon for free, but with $150 billion in cash/short term bonds ... one wonders .... the recent Chevron acquisition was only around $4 billion if I recall correctly. 

Imagine. $150 in your billfold and you spent $4 on a trinket.

More on Chevron here, from TipRanks, March 1, 2021: a compelling oil play with a 5% dividend. This article is chockfull of data; it's a keeper. Archived.