Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Apple Stats --- Again -- This Simply Blows Me Away -- January 13, 2021

See this link first.

Now this: global iPhone shipments up 10% in 2020 compared to previous year. Apple bucked a trend as falling global smartphone shipments in 2020 by increasing its shipment rate by over 10% copared to the previous year. 

Global smartphone shipments suffered an overall 8.8% decline to 1.24 billion units last year, due in part to the crippling effects of the health crisis.

Despite that, however, worldwide shipments of 5G-enabled smartphones reached as high as 280-300 million units in 2020, up from the 20 million units shipped a year earlier, indicating a surge in demand for the faster data speed.

In the first quarter of 2020, global shipments "dove over 20% on year in the first quarter of 2020, fell by a double-digit rate in the second, and narrowed the decline to a single digit in the third, before staging a single-digit rebound in the fourth," according to the DigiTimes' figures.

Samsung and Huawei felt the impact worst over the course of the year, both seeing their shipments dip by a double-digit rate. Out of the top six smartphone brands in 2020, only Apple and Xiaomi managed to ramp up their shipments compared to 2019.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

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Name This Song In Two Notes

Bizimkiler

For The Archives -- Peter Schiff Archives -- Oil Moving Higher -- January 13 ,2021

Link here. For the archives. I'm not sure Peter Schiff understands unconventional oil. That's fine. I don't understand Peter Schiff.

OPEC basket price:

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A Musical Interlude

I never cared for Simon and Garfunkel. I like this song but never S&G. I never thought to check if someone else sang it ... and then I found this ...

Yma Sumac

And the connecting link? Savage Rose:

Savage Rose

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Notes From All Over

Wow, I'm in a good mood. I just connected several dots. The Great Lebowski and the trampoline scene and Yma Sumac and Ataypura. It's so much more fun connecting dots this way than the way I learned to do it in high school. LOL. 

And then this, an Apple commercial and Yma Sumac.

I may just stay up all night. The evening is absolutely wonderful for star gazing. Moderate temperature -- cool, but not cold and no wind, not even a breeze. Very comfortable and not a cloud in the all day and none tonight. I saw Orion for the first in a long time tonight. I spotted Mars right away. I think I saw Sirius. 

I did a few Spanish lessons with Sophia tonight on Duolingo. Wow, she is picking it up very, very nicely. Since we started a few months ago, we haven't miss one day -- at least one lesson every day. I forgot to note, but I think we have 114 days in a row without missing a day. If we are not together, Sophia can log in with her sister and catch a lesson. 

Politics: I avoid for the most part (although some readers have told me I write too much about politics. Whatever). It's important that some politics is covered for the archives; to put things in perspective.

Sports. I think I can go back to NFL and college football. I have no desire to watch basketball any more except maybe high school basketball. I'm not even watching PGA golf any more. NASCAR? Eager to see the season get going again. 

The market? I find it absolutely fascinating. 

Weather? As noted above. So far we've had no winter here in north Texas. Hope it stays that way.

PSA: if something doesn't download "correctly" try switching browsers. I use Firefox 90% of the time; Apple's Safari 8% of the time; and Alphabet's Chrome 2% of the time. Sometimes something won't download on Fox but will show up on Safari. I never touch Microsoft. 

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And Before We Leave ... One More

Savage Rose


Gone, Daddy, Gone, Gnarls Barkley

KODA Resources, SHD Each With One New Permit; Sixteen Permits Renewed Including Nine Permits Renewed by MRO -- January 13, 2021

Active rigs:

$52.86
1/13/202101/13/202001/13/201901/13/201801/13/2017
Active Rigs1154675536

Two new permits, #38078 - #38079, inclusive:

  • Operators: Koda Resources Operating; SHD Oil & Gas;
  • Field: Smoky Butte (Divide); Deep Water Creek Bay (McLean)
  • Comments:
    • Koda Resources has a permit for a Ekin well in Smoky Butte
    • NENW 26-160-100, 350 FNL 1920 FWL
    • SHD has a permit for a Moose well in Deep Water Creek Bay,
    • SENW 6-150-90, 2573' FNS and 1669' FWL

Sixteen permits renewed:

  • MRO (9): all renewed permits here are in Dunn County; permits -- Regina USA; Alvina USA; Whitney USA; Nathan, Denny, Fitterer, Colgrove, Armstrong, and Jake;
  • Abraxas (4): three Jore Fed permits and one Jore Maddy Fed permit, all in McKenzie County;
  • Hunt (2): two Patten permits in Mountrail County;
  • Resource Energy Can-Am: a Pacer permit in Divide County;

Tease: Connecting The Dots -- January 13, 2021

Later, when I get caught up, I'm going to connect the Covid-19 crisis in the US with the surge in electricity prices in Japan.

LOL.

Yes, there's a connection ... if one thinks way outside the box.

I'll get back to later  -- later -- maybe. Probably not.

Later:
big freeze exposes Asia's underlying energy crisis, John Kemp, Reuters, January 14, 2021;

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JNJ

I saw this after hours -- JNJ jumped several dollars after hours, then dropped back. Have no idea why. Let's see what the news was. Headlines:

  • JNJ dips on reports its Covid vaccine is two months behind schedule; 35 minutes ago;
  • New York pleads for more Covid-19 vaccine as daily US death toll hits record; two hours ago;
  • JNJ's Covid-19 vaccine should hopefully show over 80% effectiveness; three hours ago;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Shake Shack surged. 

TGT his an all-time intra-day high before pulling back.

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Tell Me Again TSLA Is Overpriced

Link here.

Australia Is Awash In Lobster -- January 13, 2021

Remember the lobster page, July 1, 2018 -- I remember decades ago "we" were told that lobster were dying out, and soon to disappear altogether, due to global warming. 

Not only did that not happen -- see the linked story -- but now The WSJ is reporting that Australia is "awash in lobster." One assumes the price of lobster is plummeting in your local neighborhood seafood store. LOL. Yeah, right.

From the linked WSJ story:

SYDNEY—Over the holidays, Australian chef Sam Young prepared a platter of lobster rolls for his family gathering. The next day, he grilled another lobster to eat with his girlfriend’s hollandaise sauce.

“It’s never been a cheaper time to eat lobsters in Australia,” said Mr. Young, 31 years old, who recently worked at an upscale pop-up restaurant that cooked as many as 40 lobsters a day. “I tell every table to order lobsters.”

Ever since China blocked imports of Australian lobsters late last year amid a trade spat between the two countries, Australia has been awash in local crustaceans.

There are so many lobsters that authorities raised the limit for how many lobstermen could sell directly to the public at the wharf. Australians far from the coast are getting freshly caught, live lobster for the first time. Chefs are experimenting with new lobster dishes that previously would have been too expensive. And the low prices are convincing amateur cooks to make lobster at home.

Shale Is Dead! Long Live Shale! Back To The Future -- Swing Producer Argument -- January 13, 2021

Two notes today from twitter:

  • shale: output needs to rise to offset possible year-end supply squeeze, Vitol: link here.
  • if oil supply comes up short, shale comes to the rescue; not OPEC+: link here.

Goldman Sachs: Brent oil could rise to $65/bbl by the end of the summer.

  • Obama: we can't just drill our way to lower prices:
  • Biden: slightly higher gasoline prices: the price we pay to save the earth;

First, the S&P Global Platts story:

  • OPEC+ slows down output rises more than expected;
  • 2021 demand increases to hover around 6 million to 6.5 million b/d;
  • oil prices rising due to potential supply squeeze;

Remember the graphic at this post? Rigs matter:

A reader noted that Saudi Arabia generally contracts rigs for two to three years -- which suggests, it's not easy to pivot in the Mideast -- then add the cash crunch Saudi is facing -- and then add the jump in the oil price Saudi now sees -- on the other hand, there are thousands of wells drilled but waiting to be completed (DUCs) and several thousand more that are off-line for operational reasons in the Permian and the Bakken. This will be fascinating to watch. 

Now, the other link. Considering the source, this is a pretty big deal:


Bakken Economy: New Brewery In Wiliston -- January 13, 2021

Busted Knuckle Brewery opens in Williston, link here:

  • opened doors to the public: January 12, 2021
  • family brewery - Boreson family
  • owners also have a brewery, same name, in Glasgow, MT
  • located in former Williams County Highway Dept building across from Cashwise -- sort of kitty corner from the old Happy Chappie's service station;
  • the feel of a garage; a tribute to the founder and brewer Ben Boreson's 30-year history as a mechanic -- and wow, what a great building for a brewery

Weekly EIA Petroleum Report; Cushing Still Working Off Huge Build Some Weeks Ago -- January 13, 2021

EIA weekly petroleum report: link here:
  • US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.2 million bbls from the previous week;
  • US crude oil inventories stand at 482.2 million bbls, 8% above the already-fat average for this time of the year;
  • crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million bpd last week; an increase of 0.9 million bpd; over the past four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 5.6 million bpd; almost 15% less than the same four-week period last year;
  • distillate fuel inventories increased by 4.8 million bbls last week; 9% above the already-fat average for this time of the year;
  • jet fuel supplied was down 30% compared with same four-week period last year;

Re-balancing: still working off that huge build some weeks ago:

Week 107

December 9, 2020

15.2

503.2

11%

Week 108

December 16, 2020

-3.1

500.1

10%

Week 109

December 23, 2020

-0.6

499.5

11%

Week 110

December 30, 2020

-6.1

493.5

11%

Week 111

January 6, 2021

-8.0

485.5

9%

Week 112

January 13, 2021

-3.2

482.2

8%

QEP Van Hook Well: 207K Bbls Crude Oil In 4.5 Months -- January 13, 2021

See also this post: link here.

A sister well was reported two days ago: link here

The well:

  • 35455, drl/A, QEP, MHA 7-29-30H-150-92, 33-061-04302, Van Hook, first production, 6/20; t--; cum 207K 11/20; fracked 6/18/20 - 6/26/20; why is FracFocus not getting the frack data (or is it)? Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20203035178353563167526134210005134
BAKKEN10-20203138179392743461026523231763347
BAKKEN9-202028390133753750154291561534713809
BAKKEN8-20203153780541025354836764302116553
BAKKEN7-20201941144403187585729158211268032
BAKKEN6-20200000000

WTI Breaches $53 -- January 13, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Fast and furious:

  • EIA weekly petroleum report: link here.
  • Bitcoin loses to LNG in price rally, Bloomberg: link here.
  • coal: it's back! ArgusMedia: link here.
  • shale: output needs to rise to offset possible year-end supply squeeze, Vitol: link here.
  • if oil supply comes up short, shale comes to the rescue; not OPEC+: link here.
  • XOM rises again after JP Morgan analyst turns bullish for first time in seven years: link here. By the way, another analyst suggested XOM's dividend was "safe";
  • Goldman turns bullish; sees $65-Brent by summer;

Other:

  • Qualcomm bolsters 5G ambitions; to purchase Apple-engineers-start-up Nuvia: link here.

Bakken economy:

  • Busted Knuckle Brewery, across from Cashwise, grand opening: link here

Capitol attack:

  • GOP US House minority leader -- speaks on the floor of the US House regarding the storming of the US Capitol last week; impeaching would be a mistake -- a rush to judgement; US Senate won't get to it until after President Biden is sworn in; but Trump bears responsibility for those actions; wants a fact-finding commission and a censure instead;

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Back to the Bakken


Active rigs:

$53.27
1/13/202101/13/202001/13/201901/13/201801/13/2017
Active Rigs1154675536

One well coming off the confidential list -- Wednesday, January 13, 2021: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 17 for the year.

  • 35455, drl/A, QEP, MHA 7-29-30H-150-92, 33-061-04302, Van Hook, first production, 6/20; t--; cum 207K 11/20;

RBN Energy: propane price squeeze, Panama Canal rules fluster market. Can you say "Costa Azul"?

It’s been a chaotic start to the new year for propane. In the past 12 days, the Mont Belvieu price is up over 15%, closing on Tuesday at 87 cents/gallon — the highest since October 2018. The usual culprit of winter weather has something to do with it, but not just in North America. Over the past couple of weeks, frigid temperatures in Asia, along with supply cutbacks from the Saudis, have supported U.S. propane exports to those markets, further tightening the U.S. supply/demand balance. But as is often the case these days, the market has another complicating factor. Delays transiting the Panama Canal have stacked up VLGCs — the vessels carrying U.S. propane to Asia — on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the waterway, pushing up charter rates to levels not seen in years. And on top of that, new transit-scheduling rules from the Panama Canal Authority will shove VLGCs to the back of the line, potentially making it even more difficult to get through the canal without significant delays. Today, we’ll explore these developments and what they may portend for the remaining weeks of winter.