Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Notes From All Over -- The Midnight Edition -- Auto Sales -- January 6, 202

Auto sales were down, perhaps mostly due to supply constraints

4Q20:

  • GM: 4.8% gain
  • Ford: 9.8% decline
  • Fiat Chrysler: 8% decline

Full year, 2020:

  • GM: 11.8% decline
  • Ford: 15.6% decline
  • Fiat Chrysler: 17% decline

Note:

  • Ford: cited the elimination of sedans from its lineup and tight supplies of its new F-150 caused by a combination of coronavirus-related factory closures and a transition to an updated model as contributing factors it its results.
  • F-series: 44th consecutive year as the USA's best-selling truck but its 787,422 total was down 12.2% form 2019 and the lowest since 2014.
  • but look at this -- the overall market was down 15 percent on the year and very mass-market automaker reported U.S. sales declined except for Tesla, which doesn't break out U.S. sales but realized a 36% increase in global deliveries;

Elsewhere:

Sales of new vehicles in the U.S. fell 14.6% last year, but a second-half rebound from a coronavirus-related plunge in the spring kindled optimism for a recovery later this year. 
Automakers on Tuesday [January 5, 2020] reported selling 14.57 million new vehicles for the year, a far cry from the five previous years with sales over 17 million. But the 2020 performance was better than most forecasters had expected when the pandemic forced auto factories and many dealerships to shut down in April and May. 
General Motors Chief Economist Elaine Buckberg said she expects sales to recover in the spring. With warmer weather and widening novel coronavirus vaccinations, life should return more toward normal, lifting the job market and auto demand, she said in a statement.

Chick-fil-A: will expand in Montana. Whoo-hoo. Second-ever location in Montana: Billings, MT.

An Old XTO Well In Lost Bridge Hits 600K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- January 6, 2021

The well:

  • 19960, 1,666, XTO, Kaye 443X-4, Lost Bridge, Bakken, 30 stages; 3.5 million lbs sand; t12/11; cum 595K 11/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20203017581742708365117161867
BAKKEN10-202031170518151082341722961026
BAKKEN9-2020302702257286552384247898
BAKKEN8-202084804481581463948488
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-202000510000
BAKKEN5-20202213001324441416241130
BAKKEN4-20203017991777643567156050
BAKKEN3-20203120192029680630261930

A Slawson Stallion Well Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- January 6, 2021

The well:

  • 20203, 833, Slawson, Stallion 2-1-12H, Big Bend, Bakken, t1/12; cum 523K 11/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20203051745518968476146110
BAKKEN10-20203164785966890601758620
BAKKEN9-20203059506412896531451640
BAKKEN8-20203047295106964390137428
BAKKEN7-202023354131477242912273067
BAKKEN6-20202190593631711585
BAKKEN5-2020453701673773570
BAKKEN4-20203036533863110833132787376
BAKKEN3-20203166786300286961975643399

An Old XTO Well In Heart Butte Goes Over 500K Bbls Crude Oil Cumulative -- January 6, 2021

The well:

  • 20036, 2,331, XTO, FBIR Smith 11X-10, Heart Butte, Bakken, t10/11; cum 499K 11/20;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-202030261526441006285518420
BAKKEN10-20203124502347749265014700
BAKKEN9-20203024872463785278417400
BAKKEN8-202031253125051130246415410
BAKKEN7-2020181403156976313438110
BAKKEN6-20203022172113687272717930
BAKKEN5-20203122792315685246116850
BAKKEN4-20203023002278688223014110
BAKKEN3-20203124282495821240314300

Other wells on this pad:
  • 23401, 1,325, XTO, FBIR Smith 11X-10E, Heart Butte, t1/13; cum 301K 11/20;
  • 23402, IA/1,045, XTO, FBIR Smith 11X-10F, Heart Butte, t1/13; cum 272K 9/20; off line 9/20; remains off line 11/20;
  • 23403, 2,148, XTO, FBIR Smith 11X-10A, Heart Butte, t1/13; cum 383K 11/20;

Notes From All Over -- Storming The Capitol Edition -- January 6, 2020

Electoral college voting: for the archives. Electoral college voting disrupted in the Capitol. I'm not following the news so I don't know where this stands. Nor do I care.

Chinese flu watch: the "brown" map -- starting to get dark and darker in certain areas of the country. North Dakota, practically the color of my skin: white. In other words, almost no new Covid-19 cases. Link here:

  • states with most new cases:
    • California: 35K
    • Texas: 30K
    • Florida: 18K
    • New York: 17K
    • Illinois: 8K
  • penetration (total cases per capita):
    • North Dakota: 12.3
    • South Dakota: 11.5
    • Iowa: 9.2
    • Tennessee: 9.2
    • Utah: 9.1

US vaccine rollout: emulating a third world response --

Futures: 9:16 p.m. CT, January 6, 2020 --

  • Dow: up another 154 points after a huge day today
  • S&P 500: up 24 points
  • NASDAQ: after a most turbulent day, up 108 points tonight

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

EIA's Weekly Petroleum Report -- January 6, 2021

The report is here

Gasoline demand: link here.

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$50.46
1/6/202101/06/202001/06/201901/06/201801/06/2017
Active Rigs1156635439

Today's daily report was filled with corrections of past reports. Inexcusable

Notes From All Over -- "Biden Is Starting To Look Like The Last Statesman Standing" Edition -- January 6, 2021

Statesman: After Ted Cruz's "action" today, many can argue that Joe Biden -- love him or hate him -- is looking like the last statesman standing. Schumer and Pelosi could not have choreographed the GOP response any better. Give Ted Cruz enough rope and he'll .... this one is owned by Ted Cruz.

For the archives, it's all over:

For the archives: It looks this may be accurate but not because of the Dems but because of Ted Cruz.


Who would have thought? For the archives: all four major indices were surging and setting new intra-day highs until Ted Cruz's supporters stormed the capital / capitol.

Mileage / emissions:

Atmospheric CO2, link here:


Last year, November, 2019: 410.25 parts per million.

*************************************
Post-Script

Notes From All Over -- The Apple Sell-Off Edition -- Includes A Pop Quiz At The End -- January 6, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

AAPL sells off today; TSLA up over 5%; up over $36/share; trending toward $775 share price; about $731 billion market cap; 

iPhone: link here.

  • all new iPhone 12 models accounted for 76% of all iPhone sales in the US in October and November (wells before the big holiday sales)
  • the standard iPhone 12 was the best selling model, accounting for 27% of those sales
  • iPhone 12 mini: just six percent of the total iPhone 12 sales (great news for Apple: larger phones; larger margins)
  • iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max sales numbers closer to the iPhone 12
  • but look at this: last year's iPhone 11 models -- accounted for 69% of sales in the period after their launch, so the iPhone 12 models did better overall

Apple App Store:  

The Apple carA Washington Post link, a Bloomberg story. Archived.

A red-hot trend in the car industry is for new entrants such as Fisker Inc. to hand over the complicated and capital-intensive work of engineering and building vehicles to a contract manufacturer. Increasingly, cars are judged on their software and electronics so why bother wasting time and money on metal bashing?

If Apple Inc. is indeed seriously considering launching its own vehicle, as press reports suggest, then it will almost certainly decide to outsource, as it does with the iPhone. Apple designs the phone and its operating system but employs Foxconn to assemble components into a handset.

There’s at least one big contract manufacturer ready to take advantage of these seismic industry changes: Canada’s Magna International Inc. “If Apple is serious about building a car … Magna Steyr should build it,” says Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally. Even if Apple doesn’t come knocking, the manufacturer is already advising tech groups and start-ups looking to enter the automotive business, and investors have taken notice. Magna’s share price has almost trebled since March, giving it a $21 billion market value.

Magna is one of the world’s biggest car-parts suppliers ....

The contract-manufacturing subsidiary, Magna Steyr, is the really interesting piece. It builds niche premium vehicles at a factory in Graz, Austria, including the Mercedes G-Class 4x4, the electric Jaguar I-Pace and the BMW Z4 sportscar. Typically those companies choose to outsource the work, rather than retool or build a new production line, because the sales volumes are relatively small.

In 2019 Magna assembled almost 160,000 vehicles – more than many carmakers produce — and generated $6.7 billion of revenue from these activities. Together with joint venture partner Beijing Automotive Group Co. (BAIC) it recently added another facility in China, which is capable of producing 180,000 vehicles yearly. A north American plant might be next.

The Austrian Magna subsidiary is reportedly in talks about producing vehicles for Canoo Inc., another SPAC-backed car start-up, while in China it’s started producing the Arcfox for BAIC’s electric vehicle offshoot. Other projects include helping Alphabet Inc.’s Waymo subsidiary integrate self-driving technology into vehicles and working with Sony Corp. to produce the futuristic Vision S prototype car.

You can see why new entrants may chose to work with a neutral party like Magna rather than partnering and sharing plans with an existing carmaker that might be a potential rival. As well as providing production capacity, Magna says it can handle the entire vehicle development process. The company was hired to turn chemicals billionaire Jim Ratcliffe’s Grenadier 4x4 into reality.

Still, Magna’s shares look less dauntingly overvalued than many companies with one foot in the electric-vehicle future. Even after its blistering recent run, the stock is priced at less than 12 times forward earnings.

Pop quiz: what do you think Apple and Magna Steyr are up to? I will provide my opinions at a later date, if I remember, but the article above holds a huge clue, especially if you like connecting dots like I do. 

Mileage Down, Emissions Up -- And This Was Before "Work-From-Home" Became A Thing -- Americans Buying More Trucks, More SUVs -- January 6, 2021

Link here


And, here.

Chart Of The Day -- Over At Twitter -- January 6, 2021

Link here.

By the way: China is freezing, too.

It Was Going Well Until It Wasn't -- January 6, 2021

For the archives: all four major indices were surging and setting new intra-day highs until Ted Cruz's supporters stormed the capital / capitol. To say I'm upset is putting it mildly. 

Hmmm..... This headline story first seen over at Yahoo!Finance has now been removed from Yahoo!Finance:

Officially the Santa Claus rally ended yesterday, but it looks like we may need to extend this year's dates for the SCR by a few days. The SCR is tracked here

With regard to the market, if one "believes" the pandemic telescoped 2020 - 2035 to 2020 - 2025 the market is not overvalued. And then on top of that, we have, for the first time in a long, long time, a "unified" government.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Dividends: seven dividend increases expected in January, 2021. SeekingAlpha.

  • So far:
    • Abbott Laboratories: a massive 25% increase in December, 2020
    • ABM: a 2.7% dividend increase
    • Mastercard: a 6.7% increase
    • PFE: increased dividend by one cent
    • Bristol-Myers Squibb: an 8.8% increase
    • Eli Lilly: a 14.8% increase
  • Huge surprises:
    • Darden Restaurants: a 23% increase in its dividend
    • Amgen: a 10% dividend increase announced in December
    • Campbell Soup: a 6$ increase announced in December
    • ENB: a 3.1% increase
    • Franklin Resources: a 3.7% increase
    • ATT: no increase in dividend announced
  • Dividend increases expected in January, 2021:
    • Consolidated Edison
    • Kimberly-Clark Corporation
    • Air Products and Chemicals, Inc
    • Intel
    • Chevron
    • Comcast
    • ATT
Dividends are tracked here.

Most Under-Reported Story This Past Week? Amazon Air -- January 6, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

I don't directly own any shares in Amazon. Amazon is down 1% in early trading. It was down almost 2% pre-market. 

Amazon absolutely fascinates me as a company -- I'm not interested in it as an investment one way or the other. This is simply about the company. The same as my feelings about Apple, although I do invest in the latter. 

So, back to Amazon. This is the most under-reported story so far this year: Amazon buys eleven aircraft to expand its air fleet. I posted that earlier this week, suggesting that headline seemed redundant. Of course, purchasing eleven aircraft would expand its air fleet. But we move on. 

This is the bigger story: Amazon, already moving aggressively into trucking is now moving aggressively into the air cargo industry

This is the first time Amazon has actually bought aircraft; previously all Amazon aircraft were leased. 

Let's repeat that: this is the first time Amazon has actually bought aircraft; previously all Amazon aircraft were leased.

From The Motley Foot

  • buying, not leasing, eleven aircraft from Delta Air Lines and WestJet Airlines
  • this purchase marks the first time Amazon has not leased any airplanes for its Prime fleet
  • it expects to have 85 plans (owned and leased) in service by the end of next year (2022); another source says 88;
  • Amazon leases most of its cargo a/c through Air Transport Services Group; Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings; and, GE
    • ATSG: provides the fleet with 767s
    • AWWH: provides 737s and 767s
    • GE: leases 15 737s to Amazon through its GE Capital Aviation Services
  • but look at this: Amazon has taken an ownership stake in both ATSG and AWWH;
  • Amazon division: Amazon Global Air
  • Amazon looks to become a major threat to FedEx and UPS; could grow into a major a/c carrier with as many as 200 planes in the next seven or eight years, at which time it would be close in size to UPS

From Yahoo!Finance:

  • new planes to be operated by third-party carriers;
  • Amazon is taking advantage of the glut in relatively new used a/c
    • last summer, Delta retired seven Boeing 767-300s
    • Delta: plans to accelerate the retirement of its remaining 59 767s, part of a larger strategy to simplify and modernize its fleet
  • WestJet removed its four 767 a/c from service last year
    • Westjet has transitioned to 787 a/c for service to Europe
  • Amazon hubs
    • in November, 2020, Amazon launched its first-ever air hub at Leipzig/Halle Airport in Germany
    • other regional air operations opened by Amazon Air last year (2020) include:
      • Lakeland Linder International Airport, Florida
      • John F. Kennedy International Airport, NYC
      • San Francisco International Airport
      • Chicago O'Hare International Airport
      • Richmond International Airport, Virginia
      • Austin-Bergstrom International Airport, Texas
      • Luis Muñoz Marin International Airport, Puerto Rico
      • Kahului Airport, Hawaii
      • Kona International Airport, Hawaii
      • Lost Angeles International Airport
      • Louis Armstrong International Airport, New Orleans
    • scheduled to open
      • a large West Coast hub in San Bernardino, CA, early this year (2021)
      • its $1.5 billion national hub at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport this summer

EVs: Amazon-backed Rivian close to raising fresh funding at $25 billion valuation; link here;

  • Rivian backed by Ford, Amazon, T. Rowe Price Group, and BlackRock Inc
  • setting 2021 as target date for pickup trucks: R1T, R1S, and Amazon delivery vehicles
  • initial batch of R1T delivery is expected sometime in June, 2021
  • one of the first battery-powered pickup trucks in US markets
  • apparently can carry 11,000 pounds
  • range: 300 miles on a single charge
  • said to be currently manufacturing 100,000 Amazon delivery vehicles
  • Tesla: the "Cybertruck" to be delivered by the end of 2021

ND Active Rigs Trending Toward New Low: Trending Toward Less Than 10 As We Approach February -- January 6, 2021

February is the coldest, windiest month of the year in the Bakken. 

CLR down to one rig, but MRO hangs in there with three:

Active rigs:

$50.09
1/6/202101/06/202001/06/201901/06/201801/06/2017
Active Rigs1156635439

No wells coming off the confidential list, but rest of week looks relatively good.

RBN Energy: Canadian natural gas fundamentals, storage, and pricing

Canada’s natural gas market has been a source of tremendous interest to us at RBN. Last year, demand for gas in Alberta’s oil sands sector plummeted, inventories experienced record highs, yet prices remained remarkably healthy. But how can we know all that? From a data perspective, Canada’s natural gas landscape can be confusing and frustrating. Different units of measure and currencies, limited or no data coverage for important fundamental components, and numerous statistical agencies that organize and report the data in different ways just create further complications. But this data still needs to be tracked given the impact that Canadian gas production, demand, and storage levels can have on the U.S. market — and vice versa. Having all that vital Canadian gas data in one convenient package, along with some great analysis, sure would make life easier. Today, we discuss recent developments on the Canadian gas data front and why Canadian NATGAS Billboard would be a worthy addition to your analytic needs. Warning! Today’s blog is a blatant advertorial for an RBN product.

In terms of the data they provide, it seems that Canada and the U.S. are never quite on the same page when it comes to their separate, but highly integrated natural gas markets. Both have similar regulatory and statistical agencies that pump out natural gas data, but the amount and detail of data coverage can be very different, depending on which side of the border you are considering.