Wednesday, January 13, 2021

WTI Breaches $53 -- January 13, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Fast and furious:

  • EIA weekly petroleum report: link here.
  • Bitcoin loses to LNG in price rally, Bloomberg: link here.
  • coal: it's back! ArgusMedia: link here.
  • shale: output needs to rise to offset possible year-end supply squeeze, Vitol: link here.
  • if oil supply comes up short, shale comes to the rescue; not OPEC+: link here.
  • XOM rises again after JP Morgan analyst turns bullish for first time in seven years: link here. By the way, another analyst suggested XOM's dividend was "safe";
  • Goldman turns bullish; sees $65-Brent by summer;


  • Qualcomm bolsters 5G ambitions; to purchase Apple-engineers-start-up Nuvia: link here.

Bakken economy:

  • Busted Knuckle Brewery, across from Cashwise, grand opening: link here

Capitol attack:

  • GOP US House minority leader -- speaks on the floor of the US House regarding the storming of the US Capitol last week; impeaching would be a mistake -- a rush to judgement; US Senate won't get to it until after President Biden is sworn in; but Trump bears responsibility for those actions; wants a fact-finding commission and a censure instead;

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1154675536

One well coming off the confidential list -- Wednesday, January 13, 2021: 17 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 17 for the year.

  • 35455, drl/A, QEP, MHA 7-29-30H-150-92, 33-061-04302, Van Hook, first production, 6/20; t--; cum 207K 11/20;

RBN Energy: propane price squeeze, Panama Canal rules fluster market. Can you say "Costa Azul"?

It’s been a chaotic start to the new year for propane. In the past 12 days, the Mont Belvieu price is up over 15%, closing on Tuesday at 87 cents/gallon — the highest since October 2018. The usual culprit of winter weather has something to do with it, but not just in North America. Over the past couple of weeks, frigid temperatures in Asia, along with supply cutbacks from the Saudis, have supported U.S. propane exports to those markets, further tightening the U.S. supply/demand balance. But as is often the case these days, the market has another complicating factor. Delays transiting the Panama Canal have stacked up VLGCs — the vessels carrying U.S. propane to Asia — on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the waterway, pushing up charter rates to levels not seen in years. And on top of that, new transit-scheduling rules from the Panama Canal Authority will shove VLGCs to the back of the line, potentially making it even more difficult to get through the canal without significant delays. Today, we’ll explore these developments and what they may portend for the remaining weeks of winter.

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