Sunday, November 15, 2020

Notes From All Over -- The Late Evening Edition -- November 15, 2020

The market: will "we" go over 30,000 this week?

The market:

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

SRE: one of my favorite companies. But the company scares me. A California company. From SeekingAlpha today (archived):

  • Sempra Energy, a $38.8 billion market-cap utility and energy infrastructure company, offers a 3.1% dividend and operates in four key markets: California, Texas, Mexico, and liquefied natural gas.
  • Like other utilities, the company offers upside as regional growth resumes in Texas post-Covid-19 shutdown and is expected to resume in California.
  • The company is one of the largest developers of U.S. LNG projects and has just scaled up to full-capacity operations at its Cameron, Louisiana facility.
  • Comments: I think SRE needs to look for acquisitions outside of California to offset California regulatory and policy concerns. Perhaps acquiring utilities like Black Hills Corp or MDU.  

Market cap:

  • MDU: $5 billion
  • BKH: $4 bilion
  • SRE: $40 billion

Or maybe SRE is a nice bauble for Warren Buffett which would minimize SRE's California risks. 

Maybe SRE needs to think Tex-Mex and get out of California.

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The Art Page

Don't you just love these paintings? All painted by the granddaughters between the ages of two years of age and eight years of age? The pumpkin may have been painted by Olivia before she was two years old; I can't remember.

The most recent addition, by Sophia, age 6. This has quickly become one of my favorites.

An XTO Fettig Well With Nice Jump In Production -- November 15, 2020

An earlier post:

  • January 30, 2020: several recently fracked wells cut horizontally across these three wells, #18766 (Fettig), #20711; #20995; first month back, #18766 with a nice jump in production but others not reporting yet; follow a bit longer;

So, let's see what #20711, #20995, and #18766 are doing. One has been abandoned; one showed a nice jump in production; and one is just coming back on line.

  • 20995, 227, WPX, Blue Buttes 3-21H, Squaw Creek, t3/12; cum 197K 9/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20202140851281790142
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-202016216420821805228601727
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20201000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-2019103902812904120246
BAKKEN8-2019281498144768027064901526
BAKKEN7-20192819862037833358912758
BAKKEN6-2019153603643016520390

  • 20711, AB/1,392, XTO, Lucy Lone Fight 16-22H, Squaw Creek, t19/11; cum 124K 4/19; off line since 4/19; and now on AB status;
  • 18766, 1,392, XTO, Fettig 24-22H, Squaw Creek, t11/10; cum 115K 9/20; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2020144916796656140386
BAKKEN8-202031379337201636405903326
BAKKEN7-202031484450501505518304470
BAKKEN6-202030501848552127536904636
BAKKEN5-202031591163192452632505568
BAKKEN4-202030601857232574644005707
BAKKEN3-202021395240472355425503676
BAKKEN2-202010002800
BAKKEN1-20203275025634120329
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20191011644412824602
BAKKEN6-2019293634309370800
BAKKEN5-20193138936910575700
BAKKEN4-20193038231210472107
BAKKEN3-20193141525510285903

WPX's Wolverine Wells In South Fork Have been Fracked; Nice Wells -- November 15, 2020

This is so cool -- why I love to blog. 

Earlier this year, I asked whether WXP was getting ready to frack the Wolverine wells:

  • March 19, 2020: *************neighboring wells soon to be fracked? #37072, #37071, #37070, and #37069; watch halo effect on #21789, Enerplus Earth Lodge off line 1/20; remains off line 4/20; back on line for 9 days 8/20 but back off line 9/20;

Well, it turns out they were fracked, and they are great wells. The wells:

  • 37069, loc/A, WPX, Wolverine 21-22HD, South Fork, t--; cum 77K over 52 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20202528474284942335420272169120
BAKKEN8-2020274864848427444423439428921268
  • 37070, loc/A, WPX, Wolverine 21-22HZ, South Fork, t--; cum 74K over 56 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2020302795827970323531976615588811
BAKKEN8-20202646319461095133837281323250
  • 37071, loc/A, WPX, Wolverine 21-22HC, South Fork, t--; cum 61K over 52 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2020272103921071212891487511981312
BAKKEN8-20202540002398214238128783245030
  • 37072, loc/A, WPX, Wolverine 21-22HY, South Fork, t--; cum 55K over 51 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20202719906199232978316865143990
BAKKEN8-20202434728345704156826189224730

And the horizontal wells to the south:

  • 21790, 1,631, Enerplus, Tipi 148-93-22A-21H, South Fork, t8/15; cum 423K 9/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-2020301732171816612693976994
BAKKEN8-2020104636504076122691
BAKKEN7-2020146306386001103236525
BAKKEN6-202030188418041470286620432
BAKKEN5-2020313240330124548006469697
BAKKEN4-20203033873190280369342908102
BAKKEN3-20202934143466339162873094102
BAKKEN2-2020293210322827308278457696
  • 21789, 1,908, Enerplus, Earth Lodge 148-93-22A-21H-TF, South Fork, t8/15; cum 328K 12/19, but erratic production;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20200000000
BAKKEN8-20209397208171466861380
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000315803158
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20202021430
BAKKEN12-201926620329240
BAKKEN11-20192676739116730
BAKKEN10-20193196114471941260

Notes From All Over -- The Post-Augusta Masters Edition -- November 15, 2020

Golf: Dustin Johnson sets four records winning the Masters.

Tiger: I honestly couldn't figure out how Tiger Woods made a ten on a par-3 hole. I was actually watching the tournament but CBS cut away so many times from this debacle, no one really saw this train wreck developing in slow motion. This is the best I could find. It was remarkable how CBS completely ignored this story; the post-tournament interview with Tiger focused on how well he played after this hole. LOL. 

Here's how hole 3 played out:

NFL: only game on "free" television -- a 3 - 6 team playing a 6 - 3 team; and the 3 - 6 team imploding. One more reason NFL viewership in shambles. Nothing to watch.

Back To Reproduction Numbers -- Chinese Flu -- November 15, 2020

PSA: I am neither personally nor publicly worried about a shortage of cleaning products this time around but a word to the wise: start to stock up. A six-week supply of paper products would be a great place to start. Walmart is starting to count customers again

Here we go again:


 I guess some families are going to have to be broken up to adhere to the 5-person limit.

*************************************
The R0 Factor

I can't recall if we discussed this on the blog. I do remember discussing this in a sidebar conversation with a reader some months ago. 

One link:

The basic reproduction number, R nought (R0), is defined as the average number of secondary cases of an infectious disease arising from a typical case in a totally susceptible population, and can be estimated in populations if pre-existing immunity can be accounted for in the calculation. 

R0 determines the herd immunity threshold and therefore the immunisation coverage required to achieve elimination of an infectious disease

As R0 increases, higher immunisation coverage is required to achieve herd immunity. In July, 2010, a panel of experts convened by WHO concluded that measles can and should be eradicated. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, regions have had varying success in measles control, in part because measles is one of the most contagious infections. 

For measles, R0 is often cited to be 12–18, which means that each person with measles would, on average, infect 12–18 other people in a totally susceptible population ... We calculated median measles R0 values stratified by key covariates. We found that R0 estimates vary more than the often cited range of 12–18

R0, various sources, generally accepted:

  • measles: 12 - 18
  • chickenpox: 10 - 12
  • seasonal flu (influenza, e.g., H1N1): 2 - 3
  • Ebola: 1.7 - 2.0
  • Chinese flu: 1.2

Basic reproduction number: wiki

From wiki and various other sources:

  • measles, 12 - 18
  • chickenpox: 10 - 12
  • polio: 5 - 7
  • smallpox: 3.5 - 6
  • Chinese flu: 2- 6 (but still, probably too early to say for sure)
  • seasonal flu / influenza: 1.4 - 1.6
  • tuberculosis: 0.26 in the Netherlands; 4.3 in China;
  • leprosy: below 1.0

The lower the R0 factor, the lower the percent required for "herd immunity."

The very, very low R0 factor for Chinese flu helps explain why even a family with one member getting infected, the others  do not become infected.

*************************************
Chinese Flu

November 15, 2020.

Link here: filter set to "yesterday."

Total cases / one million:

1. North Dakota at 8.3%
2. South Dakota at  7.3%
3. Iowa at 5.7%
4. Wisconsin at 5.2%
5. Nebraska at 5.0%

Reminder:

  • Spanish flu, 1918 - 1920 -- estimated that 33% of global population infected with the virus.

#29. New York at 3.1%
#40. California at 2.6%

Bottom line: we've got a long way to go.

****************************************
Maybe What We Need ... Proven Technology ....

Notes From All Over -- Augusta Master's Edition -- November 15, 2020

Chinese flu: say what you want, but this doesn't give me a lot of positive vibes about the Pfizer vaccine. From "90% effective" to "maybe" a reduction of 50% transmission between humans. Link here. Yes, I understand "effectiveness" vs "transmission" is measuring two different things, comparing apples with oranges, but the American public and the editors of The New York Times won't be able to sort t out. At the end of the day: two weeks ago, we had a vaccine that was 90% effective; yesterday, we are being told, loudly and clearly, "maybe 50%." 

On another note: The creepiest commercial ever? This is exactly what the Germans did when Hitler was gassing people in concentration camps: the Germans ignored it, sat at home, on their couches. Link here. Maybe I'm missing something. 

On another note: I might have mentioned earlier on the blog that I recently brought home the largest Apple desktop iMac currently available. Wow, impressed. I'm sitting here typing on my workhorse, an old MacBook Air, with an iPhone monitoring our oldest granddaughter's water polo tournament, while watching the Masters on a huge Apple screen.

*******************************
A Musical Bio

Link here: Hedy West. From the bio:

In the autumn of 1970, she moved from Great Britain to Stony Brook. She picked her elderly grandparents' brains for scraps of musical memory. 

From The WSJ, yesterday, by Ann Podd: "My Family Tree -- and How I Found The Stories Behind the Names."

Interesting to read but not particularly noteworthy.

The three steps when compiling the family story:

  • establish the scaffolding: the family tree itself;
  • map geographic locations;
  • capture interesting stories.

That was the takeaway from the article.

This was perhaps the most helpful advice Ms Podd provided:

I stopped and gave myself a two-year deadline and two goals. First, I would preserve and share the most important documents and photos so they weren’t lost with me. And second, I would limit my research to direct ancestry lines starting with our four sets of grandparents, determining: where their original hometowns were, and in what countries; why the original immigrants left; and what happened to them and their children when they got to the U.S.

It seems so obvious now: Once you focus on a smaller number of names, and know what you’re looking for, you have a task you can get your arms around. You can see the beginning, middle and end.

Most interesting: what Ms Podd did not tell us (unless I missed it or it was implied): how she presented her finished project. I had the impression her final project consisted of the following:

  • numerous Rubbermaid bins with archival material that she did not catalogue;
  • numerous 3-ring binders with document-protected memorabilia;
  • a single 3-ring binder with the various family trees

If so, they Rubbermaid bins will end up in her attic or basement; her 3-ring binders will end up on shelves in her house. To which no one will have easy access.

Maybe she did this but simply did not tell us: use the web. Blogs or websites are perfect for family genealogy projects. Send the links to family and friends and invariably you get corrections and additions. 

The second thing: scan / photograph everything. The more you have, the more challenging it is, but in the end it is well worth the effort.

*********************************
Another Musical Interlude and Bio

Rosanne Cash.

500 Miles, Rosanne Cash, Hedy West

Completion Strategy For Hess In The Tioga Oil Field -- November 15, 2020

Updates

November 16, 2020: a reader who follows this much more closely than I do and who understands this much better than I do had this to say about this well:

It is very good to see you tracking the particulars of this drilling and completion stuff as these ongoing improvements will continue to play big roles in lowering the cost of producing US hydrocarbons.

Combining the reduced  cost/time to D&C wells with the ever increasing recovery rate is actually greatly expanding the footprint for economically  viable development.

For some  comparison, Range Resources - I believe - drilled about a 10,500 foot lateral in under 24 hours and Antero did a now-record 11,300+ foot in a 24 hour time span. 
Truly remarkable performances ... especially when one realizes that they are staying in zone about 100% of the time.

Original Post

This well is coming off the confidential list this next week:

  • 7211, conf, Hess, TI-Nelson-157-94-3031H-1, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20201489419554
8-20201334812288
7-20202039020727
6-20202741936751
5-2020965312674

**************************************
Completion strategies tracked here.
 
FracFocus
  • fracked 4/6/20 - 4/17/20: 10.8 million gallons of water, a large frack for the Bakken these days; 89.3% water by mass;
NDIC file report:
  • spud: January 20, 2020
  • cease drilling: January 29, 2020; 2:57 p.m. CT
  • TD: 20,478' MD
  • middle Bakken target
  • vertical: drilled in two runs with a planned bit trip occurring at 7,642' MD
  • KOP reached at 9,480' MD, 1:45 p.m. CT, January 24th, 2020
  • curve: drilling commenced at 10:51 p.m. CT January 24, 2020; completed curve at 10,302' MD at 10:11 a.m. January 25, 2020 (again, the standard for drilling the curve in the middle Bakken is about twelve hours; I've seen it done in as few as three hours;
  • upper Bakken: gas ranged as high as 2,234 units
  • middle Bakken: gas ranged as high as only 808 units
  • lateral:
    • 20' target window was centered 26" below the top of the middle Bakken, so a seam about 52' thick?
    • began: January 26, 2020; 11:02 p.m. CT -- just before midnight
    • completed: January 29, 2020: 2:57 p.m -- just after noon
    • so, is that about 2.5 days to drill the lateral?

Hess: Remarkable Operator In The Bakken In 2020

Of the six wells coming off confidential list this next week, starting Monday, November 15, 2020, Hess is reporting five wells (I have to go back and check this; this almost seems impossible but right now):

  • Monday, November 23, 2020: 25 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 714 for the year
    • 37211, conf, Hess, TI-Nelson-157-94-3031H-1, Tioga,
  • Sunday, November 22, 2020: 24 for the month; 48 for the quarter, 713 for the year
    • 36460, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-2, Manitou,
  • Friday, November 20, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year
    • 35711, conf, Whiting, Renbarger 24-34-1H, Grinnell,
  • Wednesday, November 18, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year
    • 36462, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-5, Manitou,
  • Tuesday, November 17 2020: 22 for the month; 46 for the quarter, 711 for the year
    • 36532, conf, Hess, EN-Sorenson B-LW-155-94-3526H-1, Alkali Creek,
    • 36510, conf, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-6, Banks,

For newbies:

  • I've been seeing this all year -- Hess is still reporting a lot of wells; very, very consistent;
  • in the early days of the boom, Hess was not noted for its middle Bakken wells; in the last couple of years, Hess wells are as good as any in the Bakken
  • Hess is drilling, in many cases, many oil fields that are not particularly known for good wells in the middle Bakken
  • Hess is reporting wells from many different fields; this next week, the five wells that Hess is reporting were drilled in four different fields (Banks, Alkali Creek, Manitou, Tioga)

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- November 15, 2020

The wells:

  • 37211, conf, Hess, TI-Nelson-157-94-3031H-1, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20201489419554
8-20201334812288
7-20202039020727
6-20202741936751
5-2020965312674
  • 36460, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-2, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-202047955859
8-20201188914375
7-20201601416697
6-20202171225468
5-2020115349120
  • 35711, conf, Whiting, Renbarger 24-34-1H, Grinnell, fracked 3/27/20 - 4/7/20; 5.98 million gallons of water (a small frack); 86.9% water by mass (typical); completion strategies tracked here;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20203633399592
8-202013111157
  • 36462, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-5, Manitou,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-20201271010353
8-20201089712701
7-20201891122808
6-202089549059
5-20201309213451
  • 36532, conf, Hess, EN-Sorenson B-LW-155-94-3526H-1, Alkali Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-202045387415
8-20203290339222
7-20203195646685
6-20203025241920
5-2020392413707
  • 36510, conf, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-6, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
9-202029264750
8-20201528834
7-20203131362117
6-20203315357454
5-20202187933317

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- November 15, 2020

Six months ago: national lockdown -- Chinese flu. 

Monday, November 23, 2020: 25 for the month; 49 for the quarter, 714 for the year
37211, conf, Hess, TI-Nelson-157-94-3031H-1,

Sunday, November 22, 2020: 24 for the month; 48 for the quarter, 713 for the year
36460, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-2,

Saturday, November 21, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year
None.

Friday, November 20, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year
35711, conf, Whiting, Renbarger 24-34-1H,

Thursday, November 19, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year
None.

Wednesday, November 18, 2020: 23 for the month; 47 for the quarter, 712 for the year
36462, conf, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-5,

Tuesday, November 17 2020: 22 for the month; 46 for the quarter, 711 for the year
36532, conf, Hess, EN-Sorenson B-LW-155-94-3526H-1,
36510, conf, Hess, SC-5WX-152-99-0310H-6,

Monday, November 16, 2020: 20 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 709 for the year
None.

Sunday, November 15, 2020: 20 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 709 for the year
None.

Saturday, November 14, 2020: 20 for the month; 44 for the quarter, 709 for the year
37380, conf,  Minnkota Power Cooperative, Inc, J-LOC 1,
36005, conf, BR, Kermit 3-8-32UTFH, Pershing, Rink/Kermit wells are tracked here;