Monday, November 9, 2020

Not Interested In Blogging Tonight -- Maybe Tomorrow -- November 9, 2020

I am absolutely not interested in blogging tonight.

I turned off "the football game" and am back to watching Todd Snider's celebration of a life, Jerry Jeff Walker.  I think it lasts a couple of hours.

If you came here looking for the Bakken, scroll down or check out the sidebar at the right. 

Random comments.

"The football game" tonight. I used to live for Monday Night Football. Tonight: a "2-5" team (two wins and five losses ) is playing a "0-8" team (no typo: zero wins, eight losses). Seriously? A "2-5" team playing a "0-8" team — MNF?

Market: the Dow was up a thousand points today -- rounding, of course. I haven't looked at the market in weeks (months?) and I haven't followed any news for similar length of time. I would not have known about the massive move had a reader not sent me a note. Wow. I don't have a dog in that fight any more: I don't follow the market and I'm not watching the news. The reader said it was due to good news, Pfizer and "the vaccine." In fact, I listened to that report while driving from Tucson, AZ, to Dallas, TX, yesterday. Excuse me but that was the most bland report I've ever heard. Much could be said, but it wasn't the "vaccine" news (actually non-news) that drove the market. I don't have a dog in this fight any more, but there's more to this than the Pfizer report. If my hunch is correct, we will see another 2,000 points on the upside in the Dow over the next couple of months.  


Wow, I'm glad I remain fully invested. I added to my positions last week when I had new cash to invest.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Personal timeline:

  • Thursday night, last: departed Dallas, TX, area at 7:30 p.m. (1930 hours) and drove to Tucson overnight to attend a wedding. I arrived at the Tucson International Airport at 2:00 p.m. Friday, local time. I gained an hour on the trip west. Google maps says it's 953 miles from DFW to TUS. And that's almost exactly what my odometer show. 953 miles Thursday night/Friday morning.
  • Friday night: I had one beer. No liquor. Mostly had a great time talking to the new in-laws. One of my nieces (father: Mexico; mother, my sister -- European) marrying into a Mexican family. What incredible stories. The bridegroom was one of four siblings. All four are either naturalized or in the process of becoming naturalized citizens. Quick: who was the US president during WWI? That was one of the questions the bridegroom was asked during his oral naturalization test earlier in the week. He knew the answer. 
  • Saturday, the wedding. More on that later, perhaps. Nothing to drink except a thimbleful of Maker's Mark.
  • Sunday: departed Tucson at 2:00 p.m. (1400 hours), losing an hour on the way back to Dallas. Drove straight through. Google says the trip would take 13 hours 42 minutes. I did it in almost exactly seventeen hours. Catnaps along the way, between 1:00 a.m. and 4:00 a.m. but that was about it. McDonald's drive-through at 11:00 p.m. First time I've had a McDonald's hamburger, French Fries (and coffee) since the national lockdown back in March. 
  • Monday, today: arrived back at 7:00 a.m. Later, at 9:30 a.m., at Enterprise; dropped off the car. Wow, they were busy. Their shuttle driver wouldn't be able to take me back to my apartment for about an hour, they were that busy. We live about three miles from the Enterprise lot. I walked back home. Beautiful walk. It was a brisk walk; ran some of the way. 

So, another 953 miles for the return trip just a couple days later.   

Today, after those two 953-mile drives on little sleep, I had Sophia from noon to 7:00 p.m. for school and after-school activities. 

And that's why I'm too tired to blog. 

See you tomorrow. Maybe I'll be in better blogging mood. 

Good luck to all.  

Enerplus With Permits For Six Wells On Its New "Hearty Breakfast" Pad -- November 9, 2020

Active rigs:

$39.68
11/9/202011/09/201911/09/201811/09/201711/09/2016
Active Rigs1555665237

Six new permits, #37961 - #37966, inclusive:

  • Operator: Enerplus
  • Field: Antelope (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Enerplus has permits for six wells on its "Hearty Breakfast" pad. The Waffle, Sausage, Pancake, Omelet, Ham, and Bacon wells will be sited in SWSW 9-151-94; Antelope oil field;
    • the wells will be 1103' FSL and between 559' and 384' FWL
    • I only checked three, but all three of those wells are running south, sections 16/21; I assume they are all in the same drilling unit; in addition, the schematic appears to show all six wells running south, same drilling unit;
    • two active wells in that drilling unit:
      • 31944, 972, Enerplus, Water 151-94-16DH-TF, Antelope, t2/17; cum 222K 7/20; remains off line 9/20;
      • 31945, 392, Enerplus, Fire 151-94-16DH, Antelpe, t2/17; cum 263K 9/20;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36201, SI/A, CLR, Polk Federal 4-33HSL1, Banks, no production data,
  • 36203, SI/A, CLR, Polk Federal 6-33H1, Banks, no production data,

Overwhelmed -- November 9, 2020

Updates

November 10, 2002: see first comment. Helps explain NG draw.

Original Post 

Wow, I can't "leave the blog" for three days without becoming hopelessly overwhelmed. It will take me all week to catch up with posting and another week to catch up with all the non-Bakken news that fascinates me. 

"Focus on Fracking" is linked at the sidebar at the right; it has been moved near the top of the sidebar so that folks find it more easily. 

Look at the lede this week:

EIA reports largest October natural gas storage draw on record; October's gas inventory build is smallest on record. 

I completely missed that and the individual that posts "Focus on Fracking" assumes almost everyone missed that little gem. 

I was going to post the anyway, but it coincidentally dovetails with the blog by RBN Energy that was posted today. This is huge. Of course, President-elect Biden has promised to end fracking, federal fossil fuel leasing, etc., so this won't last. By this time next year, we will all be using electricity generated by windmills and drivings Teslas. 

See this link. The one week I fail to post the graphic/data, is the one week that the graphic/data is most striking.

Apparently Medicare Never Got The Memo: "Seasonal Flu" Has Been Eliminated According To The WHO -- Vaccinations No Longer Needed -- November 9, 2020

At best, the "season flu" shot was only effective 45% of the time anyway.

PSA: Thrift Savings Plan, Lost In Translation -- Novmeber 9, 2020

When it comes to "things" like the federal (or military) Thrift Savings Program, I follow such programs very, very carefully.

Apparently within the last month or so, the folks that manage the federal/military TSP changed log-in procedures. 

I completely missed the memo, assuming they sent out a special memo regarding new log-in procedures. If new procedures were simply mentioned in the monthly newsletter or the monthly statement I missed it.

Bottom line: one cannot log into the TSP the way we've been doing it for decades. To log into the TSP one must generate one's one USER ID. The password can remain the same, but the USER ID has to be updated. 

PSA: for TSP users who have not created their own unique USER ID in the past few months, when you log in, do not enter your "old" userid. It won't work. And I assume a lot of folks have been locked out.

One needs to skip the normal log in process and go immediately -- do not walk, but run; do not collect $200, go directly past "GO," and establish a new unique USER ID

I would have completely missed this had I not received the following (screenshot pending) in my e-mail. But as soon as I saw this, I immediately went to my TSP and figured out what all the commotion was about.

Fascinating.

By the way, I am unaware of any "mainstream" investment that has done better than the TSP. It is quite remarkable how well it has done.

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Fascinting LNG UPdate From RBN Energy; WTI Surges -- November 9, 2020

WTI spikes: up almost 7.5%. OPEC basket drops, trading at $39.22. WTI now trades slightly above OPEC basket. OPEC basket drops again -- fourth "retreat": link here

Active rigs:

$39.91
11/9/202011/09/201911/09/201811/09/201711/09/2016
Active Rigs1555665237

Four wells coming off the confidential list:

Monday, November 9, 2020: 6 for the month; 30 for the quarter, 695 for the year

  • 37508, loc/NC, CLR, Kennedy 14-31H2, Dimmick Lake, no production data;
  • 37506, loc/NC, CLR, Kennedy 12-31H2, Dimmick Lake, no production data; I'll have more to say about these two second bench, Three Forks wells later.

Sunday, November 8, 2020: 4 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 693 for the year

  • None. 

Saturday, November 7, 2020: 4 for the month; 28 for the quarter, 693 for the year

  • 36461, drl/A, Hess, EN-Ruland-156-94-3328H-3, 33-061-04484, Manitou, t--; cum 112K 9/20;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20202113842139031235718936189360
BAKKEN8-20202921645216492053430242302420
BAKKEN7-20203124744247452424034977349770
BAKKEN6-20203028912288587470533458334580
BAKKEN5-20202522510223626042424546245460

Friday, November 6, 2020: 3 for the month; 27 for the quarter, 692 for the year

  • 36536, drl/A, Hess, EN-Sorenson_B-155-94-3526H-8, 33-061-04504, Alkali Creek, a huge well:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN9-20202827529275063582741475413470
BAKKEN8-20202528015280882884138042379200
BAKKEN7-20203141360412993838657198570420
BAKKEN6-20203035728357953734455679555520
BAKKEN5-20202649256489762941063081629230

***********************************
Henry Hub Physical Gas Volumes Jump With LNG Exports, Storage Slows
RBN Energy

Link here. Archived.

Since August, physical natural gas flows at Henry Hub have been at all-time highs for each respective month, and, in early October, they recorded the highest single-day flows that we’ve seen since December 2009
For decades, liquidity at the U.S. natural gas benchmark pricing location in southeastern Louisiana has been dominated by financial trades, with minimal physical exchange of gas, despite the hub boasting robust physical infrastructure and ample pipeline connectivity.

That’s still the case, but physical movements of gas in the area have been on the rise due to LNG exports ramping up from the Sabine Pass and Cameron LNG facilities in southwestern Louisiana and a slew of Appalachia gas supply pipelines targeting that export demand. As more physical gas is moving through the hub, operational constraints are developing at key interconnects there. That, along with the ups and downs of LNG feedgas demand, is contributing to spot price volatility at the hub and, at times, a deeper divergence between Henry spot and futures prices. Today, we begin a short blog series on the changing gas flow dynamics in and around Henry.

Chinese Flu / Wuhan Flu: SARS-CoV-2 And COVID 19

This is page five.

The best historic precedent:

The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time – in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 17 million and 50 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.

Let's parse that paragraph:

  • February, 1918 --April, 1920: 26 months
  • no vaccine -- didn't even know it was a virus
  • a third of the world's population became infected
    • if herd immunity requires 60 to 75%, then herd immunity was never reached
    • the pandemic ended without any known reason; no vaccine, no herd immunity;
  • death toll: estimated between 17 million and 50 million
  • four successive waves

Coronavirus (USA):

  • December, 2019 - present
  • US population: 332 million
  • November 9, 2020:
    • 10 million cases 
      • 10/332 = 3% -- well below 33% seen in Spanish flu pandemic
      • well below herd immunity which requires 60 to 75% of population having contracted the disease
    • 244,000 deaths: 2.4% case fatality rate

Coronavirusstatistics. By country. By state.

WSJ - Johns Hopkins data.  

CDC: MMWR.

GeneticsLink here. Also, here.

US re-openingtracked here.

New Yorkmortality rate (new link noted June 1, 2020).

UPDATES

November 29, 2020: update; ND breaks below 900. 

November 28, 2020: update; ND breaks below a thousand.

November 23, 2020: deaths per capita, North Dakota stays at #8; South Dakota jumps to #11. 

November 22, 2020: cure.

November 19, 2020: Reproduction numbers, herd immunity, and all that jazz.

November 16, 2020: CDC's MMWR update posted

November 11, 2020:

  • North Dakota: first drop in recent history; at 1,202; from 1,215 yesterday
  • South Dakota: takes big jump, from 913, to 959
  • Iowa: takes a huge jump, from 754 to 935

November 10, 2020: Pfizer says their vaccine appears to be 90% effective. I'm not buying it.

November 10, 2020: yesterday's report.

November 9, 2020: Pfizer said that the company was making great strides with its vaccine, but no specifics were given. It certainly suggests there is a long, long way to go. 

November 9, 2020: the challenge for President Biden -- he certainly suggested that a total national lockdown was needed; mandatory national masking was needed. This, of course, would destroy the economy. He needs to have a great economy going into the mid-terms only two years away. He needs to thread the needle. He needs to walk back a total national lockdown into something that would not destroy the economy. Biden will be judged on what the economy is doing two years from. His plans, as suggested during the campaign, would destroy the economy. That's why he has formed a task force. The task force will need to present him a strategic plan with which he can articulate to the public. 

November 9, 2020: by the way, if you don't believe me that Joe Biden plans to mandate nationwide masks, he himself said it: he will hire 10,000 folks to track Americans wearing/not wearing masks. Right out of China; right out of 1984. And, yes, he can mandate a nationwide mask requirement. Simply tie federal highway funds to each state contingent on wearing mask state mandates; or Medicare reimbursement; or ObamaCare reimbursement; etc. etc. 

November 8, 2020: