Friday, October 30, 2020

Notes From All Over -- Happy Halloween Eve -- October 30, 2020

Skywatch: I've never had so  much fun as I've had with the "skywatch" app on my smart phone. The app was free and I love it. According to Geoff Simon:

The moon will be full on Halloween, an event which occurs every 19 years. The first full moon after the Harvest Moon is the Hunter's Moon, so named according to the Farmer's Almanac because with leaves falling, crops harvested and the deer fattened, this was the time to hunt. See more here.
Recipes: Cornish hens? Secret ingredient: smoked paprika. 

Target: while shopping for that secret ingredient tonight at the Target store down the street, I was struck by how empty many of the shelves were. It was quite remarkable to say the least and it's hard to suggest it's not due the recent headline stories about Chinese flu being out of control. Whatever you stocked up during the original surge, you may want to re-inventory where you stand. Just saying. 

Happy Halloween: waiting to pick up Sophia at TutorTime earlier today. The table had been full of decorated pumpkins but folks were now taking them home.

Week 44: October 25, 2020 -- October 31, 2020

Top story of the week:  

Most under-reported story:

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

  • New Long X bridge now open; currently two lanes; will eventually be four lanes;

Top North Dakota energy story:
COP getting active in the Bakken; and, here; and, here;

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

  • TR Presidential Library Foundation announced $100 million in commitments;
  • "Pore space" law evolving;
  • Biden victory offers path to shut down DAPL

Operators:

Operations:

Fracking
:

Commentary: 

CLR With A New Permit; EOG Renews Four Permits; WPX Reports One DUC As Completed -- And A Partridge In A Pear Tree -- October 30, 2020

Active rigs:

$35.79
10/30/202010/30/201910/30/201810/30/201710/30/2016
Active Rigs1460685234

One new permit, #37941:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Cedar Coulee (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a permit for a Bang well in section 32-147-96, 620' FNL and 1050' FEL.

Four permits renewed:

  • EOG: three Hawkeye permits, all in McKenzie County; and, a Van Hook permit in Mountrail County

One permit canceled:

  • MRO: a Wayzetta permit in Mountrail County

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

Re-Posting: Who Controls The Permian? October 30, 2020

Who controls the Permian? Rigzone

There’s been an ongoing pendulum swing between majors and independents as the controlling group of the Permian basin’s destiny for many years, but who controls the region now?

Well, according to a new Wood Mackenzie (Woodmac) editorial from the company’s Americas upstream oil and gas research director Benjamin Shattuck, new deals like the Pioneer and Parsley combination are swinging the pendulum from the majors back to the independents “fast”.

“The combined Pioneer/Parsley entity holds almost a million acres in the heart of the Midland Basin,” Shattuck stated in the editorial, which was posted on Woodmac’s website on Tuesday.

“Pioneer is once again a Permian heavyweight. The combined company will produce more regionally than ConocoPhillips and Concho, more than ExxonMobil, and more than Occidental and Anadarko. Considering the massive spending pullbacks of Chevron and ExxonMobil earlier this year, Permian forecasters need to recalibrate their models back to Pioneer’s plans,” Shattuck added in the editorial.

“Even with a lower reinvestment rate than before the deal and the variable dividend not coming into play until 2022, Pioneer will still grow five percent next year,” Shattuck went on to state.

Having read that, now look at COP.  

**************************************
Superwoman Making Banana Bread

Two hours later:


Train Wreck In Slow Motion -- The Sports Page -- October 30, 2020

Updates

Later, 2:29 p.m.; just hours after posting the original post, Breitbart posted a survey showing that Americans now consider the old "NBA" the new "BLM." Link here: https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2020/10/29/survey-fans-view-nba-overt-political-thing-not-sport/.

Original Post

BLM: BLM braces for record 40% drop in revenue in 2020 - 2021 season. LeBron may sit out first few weeks (months?). ZeroHedge

NFL: watching a train crash in slow motion. Ratings plunge 35% this past Sunday; continues the trend in all major sports. 

Link here: https://www.breitbart.com/sports/2020/10/28/ratings-crash-35-for-sunday-night-football-lowest-week-7-number-since-2011/.


I watch sports talk television in the morning -- "Get Up" and "Final Take" -- and "Pardon the Interruption" in the afternoon -- not once have I heard anyone mention this train wreck. In fact, the commentators continue to show support for the movement. 

********************************
Hold My Beer

From a reader:

Fast And Furious -- Fifteen Minutes -- Big Story: It's Coming Down To Saudi Arabia Vs Iraq -- October 30, 2020

Who controls the Permian? Rigzone

There’s been an ongoing pendulum swing between majors and independents as the controlling group of the Permian basin’s destiny for many years, but who controls the region now?

Well, according to a new Wood Mackenzie (Woodmac) editorial from the company’s Americas upstream oil and gas research director Benjamin Shattuck, new deals like the Pioneer and Parsley combination are swinging the pendulum from the majors back to the independents “fast”.

“The combined Pioneer/Parsley entity holds almost a million acres in the heart of the Midland Basin,” Shattuck stated in the editorial, which was posted on Woodmac’s website on Tuesday.

“Pioneer is once again a Permian heavyweight. The combined company will produce more regionally than ConocoPhillips and Concho, more than ExxonMobil, and more than Occidental and Anadarko. Considering the massive spending pullbacks of Chevron and ExxonMobil earlier this year, Permian forecasters need to recalibrate their models back to Pioneer’s plans,” Shattuck added in the editorial.

“Even with a lower reinvestment rate than before the deal and the variable dividend not coming into play until 2022, Pioneer will still grow five percent next year,” Shattuck went on to state.

Vietnamese LNG. Will post link from yesterday -- the story continues.

ExxonMobil Hai Phong Energy Pte Ltd (EMPHE), Hai Phong People’s Committee and Japan power generation firm JERA have signed a memorandum of understanding to work together on a potential integrated LNG-to-power project, JERA reported Wednesday.

The MOU promotes preliminary market development discussions among ExxonMobil, Hai Phong city government and JERA for a gas-fired power plant and LNG import terminal in the northeastern Vietnam port city.

“Hai Phong is industrializing at a fast pace, with an annual growth rate of over 20 percent,” remarked Nguyen Van Tung, chairman of the Hai Phong People’s Committee. “Hai Phong City is pleased to collaborate with ExxonMobil and JERA to provide a clean energy resource for Vietnam in Hai Phong City.”

US durable-goods: orders rose for fifth month in September, 2020. Link here.

Orders for long-lasting factory goods increased for the fifth consecutive month in September, 2020, the latest sign manufacturing companies are rebounding from supply-chain disruptions and shutdowns related to the coronavirus pandemic. 
New orders for durable goods—products designed to last at least three years—rose 1.9% in September compared with August, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. 
A closely watched proxy for business investment—new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—increased by 1% last month. 
The measure had recovered all of its pandemic-related losses by August, suggesting that businesses have ramped up capacity in anticipation of growing demand. 
“The economic recovery isn’t entirely dependent on consumers, with business-equipment investment recording a swift bounce back to prepandemic levels,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Saudi Arabia in deep doo-doo:


Iraq: crumbling economy becomes a threat to OPEC+ production cuts.

Iraq may be the world's third-biggest oil exporter, but its economy is cratering after the coronavirus pandemic sapped global demand for energy and caused prices to collapse. 
The state's finances are so dire it can't pay teachers and civil servants on time, threatening a repeat of the upheaval that last year brought down the government and saw hundreds of protesters killed. 
That's created a dilemma for 46-year-old Abdul Jabbar, a chemical engineer and career oil man who's now caught between the demands of an angry population and the pledges made to allies in OPEC. 
The group of oil producers is trying to bolster a fragile market by reining in supply and it needs major producers like Iraq to toe the line. For Iraq, restraining supply carries a massive economic and political cost. But breaking ranks is risky too: it could mean lower prices for everyone. 
Some Iraqis want the government to put them first by simply pumping more oil, a move that could unravel the finely calibrated output agreement; if a producer as significant as Iraq flouts the pact, there'd be little to stop smaller ones doing the same.

Exxon: to slash up to 15% of global workforce; cuts include 1,900 jobs in US. Link here.  

IHOP: closing nearly 100 "underperforming" locations amid the pandemic. Link here.

Jobless claims, from yesterday, October 29, 2020: pandemic emergency jobless claims soar to record high. Link here.

Apple -- 4Q20 -- Quarter Ending September, 2020

Apple reports 4Q20 results: $12.7 billion on $64.7 billion revenue.

For the quarter, Apple posted revenue of $64.7 billion and net quarterly profit of $12.7 billion, or $0.73 per diluted share, compared to revenue of $64.0 billion and net quarterly profit of $13.7 billion, or $0.76 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Apple set a new record for September quarter revenue, as well as all-time quarterly records for Services and Mac revenue.

Early sales "look good": Tim Cook. 

Apple's services revenue hits new all-time high: $14.5 billion in quarter before the holiday quarter. 

Another all-time record: Apple's wearables, home and accessories revenue -- $7.9 billion. 

Apple can't keep up with demand: working hard on supply constraints -- Tim Cook.

The desktop Mac is dead. Long live the desktop Mac. All-time record. 

ND Back At #1; Followed By The Usual Suspects -- Alaska, #6; IA, #7 -- October 30, 2020

Link here.  Updated early this morning, Halloween eve, 6:40 a.m. North Dakota back in top position. 


Other related news
:

  • Chinese flu outbreak in Wisconsin pushed college football toward the edge; WSJ link;
  • tsunami of empty college dorms risks student housing market implosion; ZeroHedge
  • big tech reaps gains as the Chinese flu pandemic shifts demand; it's all about the on-line experience; WSJ link;
  • Starbucks says customers are starting to come back; WSJ link;

OPEC Basket Plunges; Another Active Rig In The Bakken; Hess Reports Another Nice Well -- October 30, 2020

OPEC basket, link here: deep doo-doo.

*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: CLR adds a third rig.

$35.63
10/30/202010/30/201910/30/201810/30/201710/30/2016
Active Rigs1560685234

One well coming off the confidential list today --

Friday, October 30, 2020: 24 for the month; 24 for the quarter, 689 for the year

  • 36796, drl/A, Hess, EN-Ruland-LE-156-94-3328H-1, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 92K 9/20;

RBN Energy: rising LNG exports from Texas reshape Louisiana gas flows, part 2. Archived.

The natural-gas market disruptions hitting the Texas-Louisiana coast so far in 2020 — a pandemic, the collapse of the LNG export market, a rare hiccup in Permian gas production, and multiple hurricanes —threw a big wrench into market expectations. Everything had been moving along pretty smoothly since mid-2016, when the first of a series of new liquefaction trains came online at Sabine Pass LNG. 
As new LNG export capacity started up at Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron, and Freeport, so did relatively steady, predictable growth in feedgas demand. 
Then came this crazy, unforgettable year. Still more liquefaction capacity started up, but LNG export volumes plummeted, mostly due to very weak export economics. Recently, LNG exports have been picking up and, whenever hurricanes stop pounding the Gulf Coast, the U.S. will likely finally experience the full impact of all 9.15 Bcf/d of export capacity operating at full strength, requiring nearly 10 Bcf/d of feedgas across the U.S, almost 9 Bcf/d of which is located in Texas and Louisiana. Gas flow patterns across Louisiana’s dense network of pipelines already are shifting in response to the incremental demand and are signaling increased supply competition along the Gulf Coast this winter. Today, we continue our series discussing the changing flow patterns along the U.S. Gulf Coast, this time providing an overview of the main drivers of those shifts to date, including LNG feedgas demand and Northeast inflows.

Off The Net For The Night -- Listening To Jerry Jeff Walker -- Good Luck To All -- See You In A Few Hours -- October 30, 2020

On YouTube, JJW, one hour and thirty minutes -- "The One and Only." I was watching Bruce Springsteen's "Letter to You" on Apple TV+ earlier this evening. I had to turn it off after about twenty minutes. I couldn't connect (emotionally ... the wi-fi worked fine). His E-Street Band might be called a "super-band" with so many incredible artists backing up Springsteen.

Jerry Jeff Walker: All by himself and a guitar on stage. And the music is incredible for late night / early morning listening. 

****************************
Back to Apple

Link here

"....hugely outpacing sales one year earlier." 

Hugely.