Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Charlie Dunn -- October 27, 2020

Oh my goodness! It was worth staying up past midnight. A reader sent me this link: how celebrities remember Jerry Jeff Walker. Link to Texas Monthly

Texas Monthly is by far one of the best regional glossies out there. I subscribe to it off and on but I generally let the subscription lapse due to the very small font / very small print. If the editor/publisher would increase the font / print just a bit, I would probably subscribe "forever." But it's a difficult publication to read, literally physically difficult to read. Having a digital, on-line essay is wonderful. 

Most interesting: I see Todd Snider was asked (and he replied) for his thoughts on JJW.

Charlie Dunn, Jerrry Jeff Walker

The Los Angeles Dodgers Win The 2020 World Series -- Notes From All Over -- Part 2 -- October 27, 2020

To say the least, I'm impressed. MLB got 'er done. Good, bad, or indifferent, one needs to celebrate another American symbol. And I love all the guys not wearing masks, and especially the guys wearing their masks below their chins, and I love the virtue signaling by the media. LOL. 

Intellectual froglegs: not yet posted, but waiting for new episode of "Intellectual Froglegs" tonight. 

McKinsey: re-imagining the auto industry's future. Link here. I was a bit curious why the subtle emphasis on Germany .... until I saw where the authors of the report are based. Spoiler alert: Vienna, Stuttgart, and Munich.

Jerry and Stephen Jones: a look back

Covid-19: 1.2 million deaths -- ZeroHedge

France: 79% of French believe Islamism has "declared war" on their country. ZeroHedge.  

  • Update, October 29, 2020: France placed on maximum security alert after second decapitation attack in two weeks -- ZeroHedge link.

Turkey: Russian airstrikes obliterate rebel camp in Idlib, killing over 60. ZeroHedge. From 2018:

  • Idlib: back to the future; Obama drew a "reddish" line; Trump will draw a "red" line; John Kerry faults Obama on his "reddish" line -- the Syrians saw Obama's "reddish" as "yellow" -- proceed with caution, but proceed; Inshallah; Idlib on the blog in 2015; also, here;
  • for more on Idlib on the blog: link here;
  • from today's story: On Monday Russian jets pounded a camp full of Turkish-backed militants in Idlib, killing at least 60. Some media sources are reporting possibly over 70 killed and 100+ injured, making it one of the single deadliest airstrikes of the entire almost decade long war.
  • I've long lost the bubble on whose side "we're" on;

Why did RBG not retire during the Obama presidency? I've yet to see an essay by any publication that "explains" why RBG did not retire during the Obama presidency. 

It's fairly easy to "break it down" by working the question backwards. It comes down to this, one of two possibilities: a) she simply wanted to make her tenure live up to the proposition that an appointment to the Supreme Court is a lifetime appointment, and no further explanation is needed; or, b) she found herself caught between a Scylla and a Charybdis, a situation out of her control. Once she found herself in that situation, she had no choice but to "simply" let nature take its course. The question then becomes: what was "her Scylla" and what was "her Charybdis"? 
For purposes of argument, let's assume it's not (a) or simply "hubris" as a reader suggests (see first comment). Let's assume it's (b): she was caught between Scylla and Charybdis and had no choice to let nature take its course. Then it gets easier. To answer that question -- who was her Scylla and who was her Charybdis -- that's easy: it is the person who would appoint her "replacement." Now it gets interesting. But as the catch-phrase to the X-Files said, "the truth [answer] is out there."

Grand Solar Minimum, 2020 - 2053

With the  passing of the webmaster of one of the best sites on global warming ever, I find it necessary to come up with new links for the Grand Solar Minimum, 2020 - 2053. 

Start here.

Notes From All Over -- Late Evening -- October 27, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

EPD: scheduled to report tomorrow, October 28, 2020:

  • EPS: forecast -- 48 cents
  • revenue: foreast: $7.13 billion

MSFT: earnings easily top expectations but forecast for Xbox's debut quarter dings stock;

  • earnings beat across all three segments
  • guidance comes in short of expectations for revenue as new video game consoles arrive
  • EPS: $1.82/share; $13.9 billion; up from $1.38 a year ago;
  • revenue reached $37.2 billion, up from $33.06 billion a year ago
  • forecast: $154 and $35.76 billion

AMD earnings here:

  • adjusted EPS: 41 cents vs forecast of 35 cents;
  • revenue exceeded analyst expectations;
  • record 3Q20 revenue driven by strong demand for PC, gaming, and data center products; the latter drove the Xilinx acquisition;

*************************************
Global Warming Hits Minnesota

Overnight, October 26  - 27, 2020, from a reader:


These are temperatures one expects to see in December in North Dakota, not in October -- before Halloween -- in southern Minnesota.

This past August: it was forecast that the grand solar minimum for 2020 would lead to terrestrial cooling. Link here

Newly discovered solar activity proxy-magnetic field [reveals] that the Sun has entered into the modern Grand Solar Minimum (2020–2053) that will lead to a significant reduction of solar magnetic field and activity like during Maunder minimum leading to noticeable reduction of terrestrial temperature.

Sun is the main source of energy for all planets of the solar system. This energy is delivered to Earth in a form of solar radiation in different wavelengths, called total solar irradiance. Variations of solar irradiance lead to heating of upper planetary atmosphere and complex processes of solar energy transport toward a planetary surface.

The signs of solar activity are seen in cyclic 11-year variations of a number of sunspots on the solar surface using averaged monthly sunspot numbers as a proxy of solar activity for the past 150 years. Solar cycles were described by the action of solar dynamo mechanism in the solar interior generating magnetic ropes at the bottom of solar convective zone.

These magnetic ropes travel through the solar interior appearing on the solar surface, or photosphere, as sunspots indicating the footpoints where these magnetic ropes are embedded into the photosphere.

Magnetic field of sunspots forms toroidal field while solar background magnetic field forms poloidal field. Solar dynamo cyclically converts poloidal field into toroidal one reaching its maximum at a solar cycle maximum and then the toroidal field back to the poloidal one toward a solar minimum. It is evident that for the same leading polarity of the magnetic field in sunspots in the same hemisphere the solar cycle length should be extended to 22 years.

3Q20

Note: this is, hands down, one of the most boring things I to do each quarter. I doubt anyone really looks at it but the day I quit doing this will be the day I miss posting something important. The word "important" is used loosely. Very loosely.

This is linked at the top of the sidebar at the right during earnings season. After earnings -- pretty much after Whiting and Apple posts their earning, this post will move back into obscurity.



Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Earnings -- 3Q20

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be content and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is. 


EOG: missed / beat depending on how measured; reported; link here. In a Biden presidency, EOG looks in better position than  many of its competitors;

SRE: preview November 4, 2020; will report November 5, 2020); conference call transcript here:

  • consensus EPS: $1.52 (+1.3% y/y). Actual: $1.21 (misses by 31 cents -- huge)
  • consensus revenue: $2.62 billion (-5.1% y/y). Actual: $2.64 -- interesting.

MDU: preview (November 3, 2020; will report November 4, 2020):

  • consensus EPS: 63 cents vs 47 cents last year; day later: huge beat: 75 cents
  • consensus revenue: $1.6 billion (+2.3% y/y); day later; misses by $10 million
  • increases guidance to range of $1.80 to $1.90 vs guidance of $1.65 to$1.85;

COP: $500 million loss; vs $3.1 billion profit one year earlier.

AAPL; investors not happy but Apple actually exceeded expectations. Barely.

Ford: Link here.

Ford reported net income in the third quarter of $2.4 billion, or 60 cents a share, compared with $400 million, or 11 cents a share, a year earlier.

And, actually, even better than that:

Excluding items, Ford's profit was $3.6 billion, or 65 cents a share, topping the 19 cents analysts polled by Refinitiv had expected.
Analysts get much of their information from guidance provided by the CEO. How was this missed? 60-plus cents reported vs expectations of 20 cents.


Boeing, link here:

  • surprise beat
  • sales, EPS, cash burn were stronger than expected
  • looking to fire another 7,000 workers while another 4,000 to be lost through attrition
  • revenue: $14.14 billion, down almost 30% y/y but beating estimates of $13.84 billion
  • loss per share: $1.39 vs $1.45 y/y; beating estimate of a loss of $2.08/share

EPD reports in-line.

  • EPS: 48 cents vs 48 cents forecast
  • net income: $1.084 billion vs 1.045 one year ago
  • adjusted EBITDA: $2.06 vs $2.023 one year ago
  • 3Q20 cash distribution 0.6% increase compared to year ago
  • distributable cash flow provided 1.7 time coverage of the distribution
  • pays 10.31%

MSFT: earnings easily top expectations but forecast for Xbox's debut quarter dings stock;

  • earnings beat across all three segments
  • guidance comes in short of expectations for revenue as new video game consoles arrive
  • EPS: $1.82/share; $13.9 billion; up from $1.38 a year ago;
  • revenue reached $37.2 billion, up from $33.06 billion a year ago
  • forecast: $154 and $35.76 billion

AMD earnings here:

  • adjusted EPS: 41 cents vs forecast of 35 cents;
  • revenue exceeded analyst expectations;
  • record 3Q20 revenue driven by strong demand for PC, gaming, and data center products; the latter drove the Xilinx acquisition;

AMD: buys XLNX for $35 billion; AMD earnings here

Baker Hughes:

  • revenue of $5.0 billion for the quarter; up sequentially 7%; down 14% y/y
  • adjusted operating loss of $234 million was favorable sequentially and down 45% y/y
  • adjusted EPS was 4 cents
  • free cash flow for the quarter was $52 million

OKE: link here

UNP: investors not happy; after earnings released, UNP drops from $204 to $184 or thereabouts; huge rout; link here; SeekingAlpha here;

  • EPS: $2.01 vs $2.03; a surprise of -0.99%
  • revenue: $4.92 billion vs $5.04 billion
  • this was the killer: high margin coal and automobile shipping way down, and it won't get better;

CAT, link here: sales and revenues declined 23% y/y to $9 billion;

  • net profit: $668 million, or $1.22/share
  • compared to $1.4 billion, $2.66 one year earlier;

ATT, link here: overall a good report;

  • revenue: $42.3 billion vs $44.6 billion a year earlier;
  • operating income: $6.1 billion vs $7.9 billion a year ago;


Three Huge MRO Wells With Interesting Completion Strategies -- October 27, 2020

Three MRO producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 37282, drl/A, MRO, Dragswolf USA 34-10TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 42K 8/20; 33-053-09323; FracFocus with no frack data;
  • 37285, drl/A, MRO, Jacobson USA 44-10H, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum --; 33-053-09326; fracked 7/24/20 - 8/10/20; 6.1 million gallons of water; 58.7% water by mass;
  • 37286, drl/A, MRO, Strand USA 44-10TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum --; 33-053-09327; fracked 7/24/20 - 8/9/20; 7.0 million gallons; 70.2% water by mass;
Note the small fracks (where frack data is provided), but more interestingly, note the small amount of water by percentage used in the frack. We saw this with Enerplus wells the other day, but this is even more extreme: in one case, only 58.7% by mass, and in the other case, 70.2% water by mass; completion strategies are tracked here;

***************************************
Early Production For DUCs Reported Above

37286, 14,915 bbls over 7 days extrapolates to 63,921 bbls over 30 days;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20207149151456215149103959330203

37282, 41,992 bbls over 12 days extrapolates to 104,980 bbls over 30 days:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20201241992409983452352701407069505

MRO Reports Three Huge Wells -- Interesting Frack Data Noted -- October 27, 2020

OPEC basket, drops below $40. 

Active rigs:

$38.94
10/27/202010/27/201910/27/201810/27/201710/27/2016
Active Rigs1457675335

Four new permits, #37926 - #37929, inclusive:

  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Pershing (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
  • BR has permits for a 4-well Boxer/Parris pad in Lot 2, section 6-149-96; all 245' FNL and from 2536' FEL to 2378' FWL

Two permits renewed:

  • Enerplus: one Hall permit, McKenzie County;
  • EOG: one Hawkeye permit, McKenzie County:

Three MRO producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed, these wells will now be tracked here:

  • 37282, drl/A, MRO, Dragswolf USA 34-10TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 42K 8/20; 33-053-09323; FracFocus with no frack data;
  • 37285, drl/A, MRO, Jacobson USA 44-10H, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum --; 33-053-09326; fracked 7/24/20 - 8/10/20; 6.1 million gallons of water; 58.7% water by mass;
  • 37286, drl/A, MRO, Strand USA 44-10TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum --; 33-053-09327; fracked 7/24/20 - 8/9/20; 7.0 million gallons; 70.2% water by mass;
Note the small fracks (where frack data is provided), but more interestingly, note the small amount of water by percentage used in the frack. We saw this with Enerplus wells the other day, but this is even more extreme: in one case, only 58.7% by mass, and in the other case, 70.2% water by mass; completion strategies are tracked here;

***************************************
Early Production For DUCs Reported Above

37286, 14,915 bbls over 7 days extrapolates to 63,921 bbls over 30 days;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20207149151456215149103959330203

37282, 41,992 bbls over 12 days extrapolates to 104,980 bbls over 30 days:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20201241992409983452352701407069505

The Day Just Keeps Getting Better And Better -- OKE Reports -- Superb -- October 27, 2020

3Q20 earnings. Link here. 

  • operating income: 14% increase year-over-year
  • but look at this: 55% increase in operating income over previous quarter (2Q20)
  • go to the link to see the incredible earnings report

OKE up 5% after-hours.

Pay 12%. Link here if you don't believe me.

Nice chart action after hours. Again, paying over 12%.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

From the September, 2020, investor presentation (sent to me by a reader about a month ago):








Off The Net For Awhile -- Good Luck To All -- October 27, 2020

I'm done blogging for the day. Too much going on. Having said that, I'll probably be back with another post or an update before 11:00 a.m. CDT, but right now, it's time to go. Too much to do. Good luck to all.

North Dakota -- #1 -- Followed By SD, MT, WI, WY, ID, And UT -- October 27, 2020

Link here


Tracking active cases is akin to tracking active rigs. A lot of similarities.

Distillate Glut Challenges US Refiners -- RBN Energy -- October 27, 2020

OPEC basket, link here: holy mackerel. I knew it was bad. I didn't know it was this bad. OPEC, i.e., Saudi Arabia, is in deep doo-doo. So is Oman, not part of OPEC a reader tells me. LOL. Even Vladimir can read this chart.

************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$38.93
10/27/202010/27/201910/27/201810/27/201710/27/2016
Active Rigs1457675335

One well coming off the confidential list:  

Tuesday, October 27, 2020: 22 for the month; 22 for the quarter, 687 for the year

  • 32425, loc/NC, BR, Cleetwood 21-27TFH-A, Elidah, no production data, 

RBN Energy: distillate glut challenges US refiners but offers contango opportunity. Archived.

For the past several months, U.S. refineries have been producing more distillate than demand warrants, resulting in a glut of distillate fuels, especially ultra-low-sulfur diesel and jet fuel. The disconnect between supply and demand has been particularly stark in the Gulf Coast region, where just a couple of weeks ago distillate stocks sat 39% above their 10-year average after coming perilously close to tank tops in August. The culprit, of course, is COVID-19, or more specifically the effects of the pandemic on air travel and the broader economy. Demand for motor gasoline rebounded more quickly than demand for ULSD and jet fuel, and refineries churned out more gasoline to keep up, but that results in more distillate too. Now, finally, there are signs that distillate stocks may be easing back down. Today, we discuss the build-up in ULSD and jet fuel stockpiles, the ways they might revert to the norm, and the potential for storing distillate now and selling it at a higher price later.

Fast And Furious -- Fifteen Minutes -- October 27, 2020

This post will be meaningless for most readers. This is so much going on that I simply have to jot down notes and come back to them later. This was done quickly; not proofread; there will be typographical errors but no content errors.

Best quip overnight, from a reader:

Someone remarked that the longest ranking Supreme Court Associate Justice - a black man - just swore in a woman - and the only people that are mad about it are liberal Democrats.  (;>) [Schumer, Warren -- happened to catch them Spectrum while moving from one sports channel to another, or saw them on Twitter -- doesn't matter. They are truly beyond the pale; neither has any shame. But I repeat myself.]

That same note from the reader had enough material for a full-day's worth of blogging; I will come back to it later. 

Froglegs: says "he" will release "next one" tonight.

Apple: when we moved into this brand new apartment several years ago, I tossed all the old television sets and bought large-screen smart televisions for every room in the apartment -- that would be two. LOL. 

The sets appeared to have everything; alas, not as smart as I had hoped and miserably difficult to set up. From here on out: no more smart television sets; I'm only buying the largest-screen iMacs Apple sells. Costco has a sale on the 27-inch retina-display iMac -- an additional $100 off at time of purchase ... but this is what got my attention: Costco will limit sales to two per customer. Tells me all I need to know.

I can retire again. XLNX. Link here. Link here. AMD smells Intel's blood in the water and strikes with Xilinx deal. All stock deal.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Retirement: This will be my third, maybe fourth retirement party. LOL. My first retirement party was at age 47, after twenty years in the USAF. I went on to serve another ten years for a full 30-year-and-a-day career. I gave 110% to the Air Force to the very end. After twenty years, if one stays in, one is working for half-pay. On top of that, professionals in the Air Force are paid well below what the average pay was in the civilian world .... generally true .. many exceptions ...

Twitter: if you don't have a twitter account, run, don't walk, and do it now. Select ten other twitter accounts you want to follow, and you will be pleasantly surprised. 

ZeroHedge: second most important website. #1? Twitter. Strike that. #1 -- the milliondollarway Bakken blog; #2, Twitter; #3, ZeroHedge. I haven't looked at DrudgeReport in over a year, maybe longer.

Best two hours on CNBC: I haven't watched network television or cable news in months except for NASCAR. 

I'm not even watching PGA (golf) now -- the early tournaments are pretty much worthless. But when I did watch CNBC these were the two best hours. The hour just before the market opened when Jim Cramer and some other guy would calmly banter about the market. No shouting. Very few recommendations. Just two old white guys sitting around talking about the market.

The second best hour on CNBC: I think it's called "Smart Money." Don't remember for sure. It's that hour before Cramer's show. Hosted by a woman. Four regular panelists. Provided lots of ideas. 

Apple TV+: on a 27-inch retina display -- will knock your socks off. Our six-year-old granddaughter Sophia discovered an "Apple original" last night and she was blown away.

Remote learning: impossible to articulate how smart these first graders are when it comes to "running" their iPads. Sophia runs circles around me when it comes to managing her Seesaw account on her iPad, along with dozens of other apps. 

John Bostic: the talking heads have it right. It looks like the NFL blew it on this one.

Keystone Kops. Speaking of the NFL. I don't know if it's just me or if others are noting the same thing, but the level of play this year, so far, is pathetic. Some exceptions but overall, the franchise quarterbacks not looking good. Again, some exceptions.

Polls show that the best NFC team right now is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (followed by Seattle, Green Bay, and Chicago). Considering how this all started, this is amazing. Biggest implosion? New England Patriots. The questions:

  • was it really Belichick or Brady all those years?
  • who started the discussion for Brady to leave the Patriots? Brady or Belichick?

By the way, one wonders the original spelling of the "Belichick" name and when that occurred? I have a hunch.

Best wells ever in the Bakken. The data supports that observation.

80% of the French: agree on something. The actual number is 79% but I prefer to round most numbers; easier to remember. I'm not even sure 80% of the French agreed that they should resist the Nazis during WWII. 

Swedish experience: Chinese flu. We'll get back to this later. For Americans, there are two memes out there -- President Biden will lock the US down again; President Trump will move on. On August 20, 2020:

"Steven Liesman notes that the pandemic is hitting mom-and-pop retail really, really bad. That was also the discussion in the swimming pool last night: mom-and-pop retail may not be able to hold on much longer, and with another lock down advocated by the Biden/Harris campaign will be the final nail in that coffin." [That must have been about the last time I watched CNBC.]

Blogger app: I'm still not particularly happy about the changes the blogger app made but I'm adjusting. 

That's it. Fifteen minutes.

BR Eyeing To Double The Number Of Wells In A Hawkeye 1280-Acre Drilling Unit -- October 27, 2020

From the NDIC November hearing dockets, this case (not a permit):

  • Case 28596, BR, Hawkeye-Bakken, 1280-acre unit with 16 wells; sections 15/22-152-95, McKenzie;

There are currently eight active wells in this drilling unit.

  • 25161, t8/13; cum 256K 8/20;
  • 18020, t2/10; cum 292K 8/20;
  • 24627, t9/13; cum 214K 8/20; 
  • 24628, t8/13; cum 203K 8/20; 
  • 24629, t8/13; cum 156K 8/20;
  • 24624, t8/13; cum 230K 8/20; 
  • 24625, t8/13; cum 232K 8/20; 
  • 24626, t8/13; cum 246K 8/20;