Monday, October 26, 2020

Chinese Flu Pandemic Update -- North Dakota -- October 26, 2020

Color coding for this map needs to be updated, look at the legend for active cases:

  • current:
    • 1 - 4 (is this category even needed any more?)
    • 5 - 9 (ditto)
    • 10 - 29 (ridiculous)
  • and then look at this spread:
    • 30 - 99 (why not 1 - 100?)
  • and then this:
    • 100 - 499 (are you kidding?)
    • 500+
  • it seems almost anything would be better, including:
    • 1 - 99
    • 100 - 199
    • 200 - 299
    • 300 - 399
    • 400-  499
    • 500 - 599
    • 600+

And why is it not "per capita"?

Deaths:

  • four core Bakken counties: 31
  • Cass (Fargo): 84
  • Burleigh (Bismarck): 76
  • Morton (Mandan): 50
  • Ward (Minot): 35
  • Stark (Dickinson): 34
  • and then look at Grand Forks with 18 -- lowest per capita in the state among the "big" counties

Nationwide, deaths/one million population:

  • North Dakota, #21 (the lower the number the worse)
  • South Dakota, #31 (much, much better than North Dakota)

Per capita, population of North Dakota: 775,000

  • total positive / 775,000 = 4.9%
  • herd immunity: 70%
    • for herd immunity: a long way to go
  • deaths per positive case: 461 / 38,241 = 1.2%
  • chance of being hospitalized: 1,437 / 38,241 = 3.8%
  • if you test positive, the likelihood you will not be hospitalized: 96% chance

Top Story Of The Week -- October 26, 2020

But it's early in the week ...

For the archives. 

One "cartoon" pretty much encapsulates eight years of politics.

MRO Reports Huge Wells In The Bakken -- October 26, 2020

These are no longer atypical wells in the Bakken. If they were atypical we would be seeing headlines in The Bismarck Tribune and comments from Lynn Helms regarding these wells. In fact, crickets.

These are the type of wells that have Saudi Arabia and Russia concerned. 

Vladimir Putin gave it away when he recently pointed out North Dakota by name, talking about how good the wells in North Dakota are -- but noting that the shale revolution is temporary. It is. Probably lasting about one hundred years in North Dakota, longer in the Permian. 

See this incredible comment from Vladimir Putin.

These wells all had moderate fracks.

These were reported today:

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 36912, drl/A, MRO, Prairie Chicken USA 11-3TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 245K 8/20; a huge well; 33-053-09195; SWSW 34-152-94; fracked 3/9/20 - 3/21/20; 7.3 million gallons of water, percent of water by mass not provided;
  • 36913, drl/A, MRO, Zandra USA 21-3TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 235K 8/20; a huge well; 33-053-09196; SWSW 34-152094; fracked 3/9/20 - 3/21/20; 7.9 million gallons of water; percent of water by mass not provided;
  • 36915, drl/A, MRO, Ardella USA 21-3TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 142K 8/20; a huge well; 33-053-09198, SWSW 34-152094; fracked 3/9/20 - 3/21/20; 6.9 million gallons of water; percent water by mass not provided;
  • 37284, drl/A, MRO, Mandan USA 34-10H, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 54K over 15 days, 33-053-09325; NESE 15-151-94; fracked 7/24/20 - 8/3/20; 7.0 million gallons of water; percent of water by mass, 87.5%;

********************************************
The MRO DUCs That Were Reported Today

Record IPs are tracked at this post.


37284, 54,169 bbls over 14 days extrapolates to 116,076 bbls over 30 days, bbls of oil (not boe):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-202014541695288638183795376276613513

36915, 69,534 bbls over 24 days extrapolates to 86,918bbls over 30 days, bbls of oil (not boe):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20202311942120893411017982133963676
SANISH7-202024695346928530076962464821243334
SANISH6-20202380242721524442604217
SANISH5-20201656980564763589975316072037
SANISH4-20202002801500150

36913 48,423 bbls over 15 days extrapolates to 96,8466 bbls over 30 days, bbls of oil (not boe):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-202031280532792415950993828573710479
SANISH7-2020314658446921206101262967027252186
SANISH6-202029595345947325899862804006442184
SANISH5-20202552745532742839771904068865
SANISH4-20201548423474282826368320065487

36912, 60,188 bbls over 22 days extrapolates to 82,075 bbls over 30 days, bbls of oil (not boe):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-202031389363879833932713195646811640
SANISH7-2020317484275082411051170426351748256
SANISH6-202029615536154040099871334115441816
SANISH5-20202260188598425420682971079494
SANISH4-20204906488781125612130011601

Four Huge MRO DUCs Reported -- October 26, 2020

Active rigs, down one today, MRO drops one active rig off the active rig list:

$38.68
10/26/202010/26/201910/26/201810/26/201710/26/2016
Active Rigs1357675336

No new permits.

Nine permits renewed:

  • CLR (4): one Akron permit and three Charlotte permits, all in McKenzie County
  • Petro-Hunt (3): three USA permits in McKenzie County:
  • EOG (2): two Hawkeye permits in McKenzie County;

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 36912, drl/A, MRO, Prairie Chicken USA 11-3TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 245K 8/20; a huge well; 33-053-09195; SWSW 34-152-94; fracked 3/9/20 - 3/21/20; 7.3 million gallons of water, percent of water by mass not provided;
  • 36913, drl/A, MRO, Zandra USA 21-3TFH-2B, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 235K 8/20; a huge well; 33-053-09196; SWSW 34-152094; fracked 3/9/20 - 3/21/20; 7.9 million gallons of water; percent of water by mass not provided;
  • 36915, drl/A, MRO, Ardella USA 21-3TFH, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 142K 8/20; a huge well; 33-053-09198, SWSW 34-152094; fracked 3/9/20 - 3/21/20; 6.9 million gallons of water; percent water by mass not provided;
  • 37284, drl/A, MRO, Mandan USA 34-10H, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 54K over 15 days, 33-053-09325; NESE 15-151-94; fracked 7/24/20 - 8/3/20; 7.0 million gallons of water; percent of water by mass, 87.5%;

********************************************
The MRO DUCs That Were Reported Today

Record IPs are tracked at this post.


37284, 54,169 bbls over 14 days extrapolates to 116,076 bbls over 30 days, bbls of oil (not boe):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-202014541695288638183795376276613513

36915, 69,534 bbls over 24 days extrapolates to 86,918bbls over 30 days, bbls of oil (not boe):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-20202311942120893411017982133963676
SANISH7-202024695346928530076962464821243334
SANISH6-20202380242721524442604217
SANISH5-20201656980564763589975316072037
SANISH4-20202002801500150

36913 48,423 bbls over 15 days extrapolates to 96,8466 bbls over 30 days, bbls of oil (not boe):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-202031280532792415950993828573710479
SANISH7-2020314658446921206101262967027252186
SANISH6-202029595345947325899862804006442184
SANISH5-20202552745532742839771904068865
SANISH4-20201548423474282826368320065487

36912, 60,188 bbls over 22 days extrapolates to 82,075 bbls over 30 days, bbls of oil (not boe):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH8-202031389363879833932713195646811640
SANISH7-2020317484275082411051170426351748256
SANISH6-202029615536154040099871334115441816
SANISH5-20202260188598425420682971079494
SANISH4-20204906488781125612130011601

MRO Eyes Ten Wells On A 1280-Acre Spacing Unit, Bailey Oil Field -- October 26, 2020

From the November NDIC hearing dockets, a case, not a permit:

  • Case 28607, MRO, Bailey-Bakken, 1280-acre unit with 10 wells; sections 25/36-146-94; Dunn County;

There are currently seven producing wells in that drilling unit. 

  • 35267, t4/19; cum 181K 8/20;
  • 34048, t4/19; cum 113K 8/20; 
  • 34049, t4/19; cum 196K 8/20; 
  • 34050, t4/19; cum 90K 8/20;
  • 18588, t6/10; cum 164K 2/20; remains off line 8/20;
  • 25484, t10/13; cum 131K 8/20; 
  • 25482, t10/13; cum 281K 8/20;
  • 16736, t1/08; cum 437K 8/20; with huge jump in production 4/19; see this post;

Graphic:

Notes From All Over -- The Toy Edition -- Part 2 -- October 26, 2020

Barbie: from The Wall Street Journal last week --

Barbie sales take off as parents try to cut down on screen time. Mattel reports largest increase in demand for flagship doll in at least two decades; Hot Wheels, Baby Yoda, also fuel growth.

Our six-year-old granddaughter Sophia spends  lot of time on the iPad. In addition to remote learning on an iPad, she takes piano lessons using an iPad app, as well as Spanish lessons.

But she has a lot of non-screen activities: she loves to paint; she has a huge Barbie doll collection (I find them incredibly affordable compared to so many other things these days); she loves Legos; and, we are building quite a collection of Hot Wheels. 

Prize collection for me, of course, the Beatles Hot Wheel vans. 

From the linked WSJ article:

Add Barbie to the list of the pandemic’s biggest winners. 
Mattel Inc.’s flagship doll posted a 29% sales increase in the third quarter, leading the toy company to 10% revenue growth in the period. 
It was the largest quarterly increase posted by Barbie going back at least two decades. “The brand is more relevant than ever at 62 years old,” Mattel Chief Executive Ynon Kreiz said in an interview Thursday.

After years of struggles and rising competition from other dolls, Mattel sought to reinvigorate the Barbie brand by introducing new body sizes, skin tones, hair colors and career paths. Recently, Barbie has also been boosted by hits like a “Color Reveal” product where you dip a doll into water to disclose what kind it is.

The pandemic has helped, too. Parents say they are looking for ways to entertain their children that don’t involve a screen and many are gravitating to familiar toys.

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- October 26, 2020

PSA: if your state's department of natural resources wants to visit your land for some reason, here's a suggested response. From a reader. Thank you.

Politics: I'm not following the news, and I don't watch network or cable television except for sports and old movies, but what little I see on twitter suggests more going on behind the scenes than being reported. First of all, in this clip, Jill Biden seems resigned to the fact her husband is "losing it." I may be wrong, but she certainly seems tired and/or uninterested. Remember, this is a political ad or a political event of some sort and she should be showing incredible enthusiasm. Second, where is Hillary? No matter how angry she is about how this all played out, she detests Trump and one would think she would be on the campaign trail doing her best to defeat him. And, finally, the former president? Belatedly, he finally did one ad for Joe Biden. And that was it. 

Probably the same story in the US: trucking provides rare boost to Europe oil demand. Link at Bloomberg via Rigzone:

Europe may still be mired in a deep economic slump, but the region’s truck drivers are hauling bumper volumes of goods across the continent as online shopping surges, offering a rare boost to oil demand.

Girteka Logistics, owner of Europe’s largest fleet of trucks, said it will deliver about 800,000 full loads this year, up about 10% on 2019. The company has more than 7,000 vehicles, moving everything from ice cream to electronics.

The freight surge is being driven by a boom in e-commerce during the coronavirus outbreak, said Kristian Kaas Mortensen, director of strategic partnerships at Girteka. While individuals have had their movement limited by virus restrictions, the Vilnius, Lithuania-based firm has been hauling bumper volumes of consumer goods, food and pharmaceuticals, often for home consumption.

“The money that is not going to Spain on vacation, or on a business trip, is going to another spending,” said Mortensen. “That happens to be a spending that benefits the transport patterns we are operating in.”

Third world state: PG&E cuts power to hundreds of thousands. Again. Link at The WSJ. Hard to charge your Teslas with no electricity. By the way, hard to fill your gasoline tanks when the electric pumps aren't working.

PG&E Corp. said it was pre-emptively cutting power to about 361,000 customers in northern and central California in an effort to prevent wildfires, marking the largest such shut-off it has reported this year.

The San Francisco-based utility started the shut-offs Sunday morning by de-energizing electrical lines in the Northern Sierra region, and then continued in other areas ranging from the San Francisco suburbs to wine country to small rural towns. The blackouts affect customers in portions of 36 counties where a forecast windstorm and dry humidity levels pose a high risk of causing active power lines to spark catastrophic wildfires.

PG&E said it would check its power lines for damage and begin turning power back on after the storm subsides, with service expected to be restored for most customers within 12 daylight hours after the severe weather ends.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

ATT: over at SeekingAlpha.

  • investors should ignore AT&T debt, as its FCF has remained incredibly strong
  • the company's fiber and HBO Max businesses have continued to perform well and have significant growth potential
  • the company has a 7.5% dividend yield at a high-50%'s payout ratio. That cash flow points to strong long-term shareholder returns

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; No Production Data; WTI Below $39 -- October 26, 2020

Shale on his mind: how big a deal is the Bakken? For Vladimir? A pretty big deal -- Bakken -- living rent-free in Putin's mind. LOL:

OPEC basket, link here: $40.88.

****************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$38.75
10/26/202010/26/201910/26/201810/26/201710/26/2016
Active Rigs1457675336

Wells coming off confidential list today --

Monday, October 26, 2020: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter, 686 for the year

  • None

Sunday, October 25, 2020: 21 for the month; 21 for the quarter, 686 for the year

  • 37426, loc/NC, Slawson, Orca Federal 2-23-26H, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 37239, loc/NC, Slawson, Loon Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, no production data,
Saturday, October 24, 2020: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter, 684 for the year
  • None.

RBN Energy: keepin' up with the daily twists and turns of volatile, Covid-era energy markets

Down to only two months left in 2020. Whew! We’ll all be relieved to see this one disappear in the rear-view mirror. It’s been an extreme roller coaster ride for oil and gas — from the onset of the COVID pandemic and the crude price collapse in the spring, to withering demand for transportation fuels, to one hurricane after another, to chaotic swings in natural gas prices. And being thrashed about by all this turmoil are the natural gas liquids, with each NGL product taking its own wild ride through erratic market conditions. It’s been a challenge just keeping up with what is going on. At RBN, we’ve been working on a new app to address this challenge, and today we are rolling it out to you, as a reader of our daily blog. We are talking about access to everything from spot and futures prices, to market statistics, to reports on intra-day pricing, and to market alerts as they happen. Sound interesting? If so, hang on to your hat and read on in this RBN product advertorial.

We call our new app ClusterX. It’s available today for you to test drive, either on your mobile device or any PC or Mac web browser. If this seems vaguely familiar, it’s because we discussed a friends-and-family release of ClusterX for some of our subscribers a few months back. And, in recent weeks, we’ve had pre-release ads on the website. Today, we are rolling out the real thing.