Friday, October 2, 2020

WTI Will Test $37 Floor; OPEC Basket Closes Below $40 -- Two New Permits -- October 2, 2020

Later: at two hours post-tweet, 353K well-wishers clicked in. He has 87 million followers.

Later

"Get some rest, president!" -- still not taking doctor's advice. LOL.

For the archives: President Trump admitted to Walter Reed Medical Center earlier today; initial reports, "precautionary." Less than twelve hours later, White House officials said to be "concerned." President febrile and fatigued; on experimental drug regimen; does not include hydroxychloroquine. Not sure if president is in ICU, but he's being treated as if in ICU. Next thing to watch for: intubation (for "precautionary purposes") if he becomes overly fatigued. Posted 9:55 p.m. ET. One hour ago (about 9:00 p.m. ET) said to be "short of breath." For me that's a "head's up" that the president will be intubated before morning. Posted 10:05 p.m. ET. Spokesman: President Trump resting comfortably; no supplemental oxygen. Posted 12:20 a.m. ET. early Saturday morning;

Posted at 12:21 a.m. ET, truly remarkable. Late Friday night / early Saturday morning. To go from working in his office to being taken to Walter Reed to be said to be febrile and short of breath all in less than 12 hours and then all of a sudden resting comfortable on no supplemental oxygen. Remarkable. Anyway, we move on.


OPEC: Iraq says it won't abide by OPEC quotas. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$37.05
10/2/202010/02/201910/02/201810/02/201710/02/2016
Active Rigs1159655733

Two new permits:

  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Little Knife (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • BR has permits for a Manchester well and a Concord well both in SWSW 10-147-97, 442' FSL and 275' - 365' FWL

Four permits canceled:

  • EOG: four Wayzetta permits in Mountrail County

XTO Charlson Well Trending Toward One Million Bbls -- Still No Pump -- October 2, 2020

The well:

  • 17113, 3,030, XTO/Denbury, Charlson 14X-35H, Charlson, t10/08; cum 855K 8/20; F; subtle jump in production; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-20203141774030130560453700
BAKKEN7-20203142064284115564454100
BAKKEN6-20203040983824137558453570
BAKKEN5-20203142694582182574255150
BAKKEN4-20203041214175220533851110
BAKKEN3-202031425940452205245483973
BAKKEN2-2020294170424326552334221701
BAKKEN1-202031446642132825512625121
BAKKEN12-201927264025992153255462948
BAKKEN11-20192922432521186276602455
BAKKEN10-20193135953700394441019552129
BAKKEN9-20193035103190511433126931411
BAKKEN8-20192424882063707307418051116
BAKKEN7-2019181662197241320688811073
BAKKEN6-2019211428137433188817360
BAKKEN5-201931260529965232042593377

Whiting's Million-Bbl Behr Well, Drilled Back In 2008, Stronger Than Ever -- October 2, 2020

 Well, not stronger than ever, literally, but considering its age, incredibly strong.

The well:

  • 17092, 3,027, Whiting, Behr 11-34H, Sanish; s4/08; produced 500,725 bbls in 591 days; inactive Jan/Feb 2015; now back on status 3/15; cum 1.114626 million bbls 8/20; off line as of 7/19; remains off line 1/20; back on line 3/20;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN8-2020312105199615485008182225
BAKKEN7-2020312157216822993068970243
BAKKEN6-20203019471931268852684360
BAKKEN5-20203119581953423908089870
BAKKEN4-20203017751941715837682860
BAKKEN3-2020206073771023340233430
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190070000
BAKKEN7-2019618919131157715582
BAKKEN6-201928903963164783364211333
BAKKEN5-201931167216421271120710803311
BAKKEN4-201929109010868685998367147
BAKKEN3-201931163216801361155611076387
BAKKEN2-2019281511152795102149394736

CLR's Anna Wells In Last Chance Oil Field Trending Toward Pre-Covid Production Levels -- Oct 2, 2020

Link here.

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Morning Television

Double Dynamite on TCM: Frank Sinatra and Groucho Marx. Actually a pretty good movie. Groucho Marx is very, very good, unlike the slapstick I'm usually used to seeing involving the Marx brothers. 

And it's very clear that Alan Alda channeled Groucho Marx in MASH. First time I noticed this.

DIsney Bankruptcy? Can't Imagine It --- But, It's Been A Strange Year -- October 2, 2020

From google today:

Disneyland, back of the envelope

  • a normal day: 65,000 visitors / day
  • tickets: average $100/visitor/day
  • money spent inside park: $50/visitor/day
  • 65000 * 150 = $10 million / day at Disneyland being lost

Without theme parks, is Disney simply a television / movie company?

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Cognitive Dissonance



 

ICYMI: October 2, 2020

First things first: Clayton Kershaw, LA Dodgers, last night. Awesome. I may return to watching BLM sports. LOL. Three-game series for the wild card baseball games: best decision. Ever. 

  • BLM: wow. Those folks that said the Miami Heat could take on the LA Lakers. LOL. Not even in the same league!

AAPL: to report 4Q20 earnings October 29, 2020.

App Store: Apple App store reportedly earned twice as much as the Google Play Store in 3Q20. Link here.

$29.3 billion was spent overall on Apple's App Store and Google's Play Store, with over 35.6 billion app installs, in the third quarter of 2020 

App stores have seen significant year-on-year growth, with customers spending 32 percent more than at the same time in 2019, with 23.3 percent more installs. Large growth compared to 2019.

Being driven by remote learning, working from home.

Comment: I've bought annual subscriptions to piano teaching app ($129/year or something like that, maybe just $79/year -- I forget -- for Sophia; at her age beats hiring a private piano teacher); also bought Duolingo for $89/year, I believe -- incredible. Sophia loves it. In addition to all that, she must have two dozen school-approved / school-required apps on her iPad.

By the way, what else does this mean? Folks are going to have to upgrade to new iPads for additional memory, perhaps new operating systems to run the new apps.



Difficult Days Await Saudi Citizens -- Middle East Monitor -- October 2, 2020

Link here. Data points:

  • so far
    • deflation, increased unemployment, expanding poverty rates, growing deficit, 
    • significant decline in general revenues, foreign exchange reserves, and public reserves
    • stagnation in the markets, paralysis in vital activities
    • expatriate workers fleeign
    • sharp decline in the profits of banks and major compaies
    • salaries being paid late
  • the worse may yet be coming 
    • increase in the cost of living
    • rise in the prices of basic commodities, including gasoline and diesel
    • the cost of water, electricity, public transport, telephone bills have magnified
    • taxes have risen, especially VAT
    • previously unknown to the kingdom, income taxes may follow
    • government may have to accelerate its privatization policy: sale of companies and vital facilities to the private sector: schools, hospitals, pharmacies
    • may need to sell all flour mills, desalination companies, electricity production, and 27 airports
  • unemployment data
    • the rate increased to 15.4% 2Q20, compared to 11.8% 1Q20
    • rise of unemployment occurred despite 2.5 million expatriate workers fleeing the kingdom since 2017
    • 1.2 million more expected to flee this year (2020)
    • major companies have stopped paying salaries
  • value of oil exports fell almost 50% in July, 2020
  • surplus in foreign trade balance fell by 65% from January 1, 2020, through July, 2020
  • the cessation of the Hajj and the Umrah will greatly impact Saudi economy

Article fails to mention that Saudi support of terrorist organizations has already fallen significantly.

Holy Hãagen-Dazs, Batman -- A Cold Stone Creamery Store Opens In Williston; Williston Named North Dakota City Of The Year -- October 2, 2020



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Corona-19: Williams County

Link here

MRO's Pads In The Bakken

The "Betty Shobe" pad: A-J-2K-S.   

The "Copeland USA" pad: C-E-2H-O.

The "Doris USA" pad: B-D-E-F. 

The "Doven" pad: D-S-T.

The "Eager-Waldorf USA" pad
.

The "Monson USA" pad: A-C-I-K-L-M-R.

The "Papa George USA" pad.

The "Quale" pad.

The "Thorson USA" pad:  L-O-T-V.

The "Waltom USA" pad: P-R-S-4W.

The "Winona USA" pad.

MRO's A-C-I-K-L-M-R Pad In Reunion Bay

First, the graphics:


The wells:

  • 37732, loc, MRO, Carl USA12-26TFH, Antelope,
  • 37733, loc (ROS - Oct 2, 2020), MRO, Kaye USA12-26H, Antelope,
  • 37734, ros, MRO, Larry USA 13-26TFH,
  • 37735, loc, MRO, Amsler USA 13-26H, Antelope,
  • 37736, loc, MRO, Iverson USA 14-26TFH, Antelope,
  • 37737, loc, MRO, Redetzke USA 14-26H, Antelope,
  • 37738, loc, MRO, Monson USA 14-26TFH, Antelope,

Notes From All Over -- October 2, 2020

AAPL: to report 4Q20 earnings October 29, 2020.

App Store: Apple App store reportedly earned twice as much as the Google Play Store in 3Q20. Link here.

$29.3 billion was spent overall on Apple's App Store and Google's Play Store, with over 35.6 billion app installs, in the third quarter of 2020 

App stores have seen significant year-on-year growth, with customers spending 32 percent more than at the same time in 2019, with 23.3 percent more installs. Large growth compared to 2019.

Being driven by remote learning, working from home.

Comment: I've bought annual subscriptions to piano teaching app ($129/year or something like that, maybe just $79/year -- I forget -- for Sophia; at her age beats hiring a private piano teacher); also bought Duolingo for $89/year, I believe -- incredible. Sophia loves it. In addition to all that, she must have two dozen school-approved / school-required apps on her iPad.

By the way, what else does this mean? Folks are going to have to upgrade to new iPads for additional memory, perhaps new operating systems to run the new apps.

The car wars: GM, Ford, and Tesla. Two of the three look to be contracting significantly globally. Does Ford become a niche player int the automotive world? South Korea, Japan surging. Is China automotive something to watch? Will Tesla implode (on the down side) or explode (on the up side)? Tesla is impossible to read. Cons: the elephant in the room -- too much competition. Pros: everything else. From the linked article:
 

Stock performance: Ford shares are down 52% over the last five years and over 40% in the last 10 years. Shares are down 25% in 2020. Ford has a market capitalization of $28 billion.

General Motors stock is trading flat over the last five years and down 7% over the last 10 years. Shares are down 13% in 2020. General Motors has a market capitalization of $44 billion.

Tesla shares are up 645% in the last five years and up 913% in the last ten. Shares are up 428% in 2020. Tesla has a market capitalization of $411 billion.

What's next?  Ford will be led by a new CEO soon as Jim Hackett, who has led Ford since 2017, will step down. Jim Farley, currently Ford's COO, will become the new CEO on Oct. 1.

The company’s new Mustang Mach-E, F-150 and Bronco make for one of the company’s strongest vehicle lineups going forward.

Black Friday -- October 2, 2020

Black Friday. Hang on, it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

OPEC Basket, WTI Plunge -- At Least That's How Many Will Report It; WTI Drops Below $37 -- October 2, 2020

Well, that was easy: top story of the week. President Trump and wife test positive for Chinese flu. For the archives. Tea leaves: no more presidential debates. That was it. Had the first debate received overwhelmingly positive reviews, there would be a chance there would be one last debate prior to the election, but the reviews suggest Americans have seen enough, don't need another debate. So, we'll call it (the one and only debate) good, and move on.

OPEC basket, link here: wow, huge drop. Falls below $40. OSP at $39.94.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$36.99
10/2/202010/02/201910/02/201810/02/201710/02/2016
Active Rigs1159655733

Two wells coming off the confidential list:

Friday, October 2, 2020: 2 for the month; 2 for the quarter, 667 for the year

  • 37078, drl/A, Whiting, Oddie 44-7HU, Sanish, no production data,
  • 36927, drl/A, Kraken, Black Federal 33-28 7H,33-053-09202, Antelope-Sanish, t--; cum 259K 7/20; a 68K well; see this post;

RBN Energy: summer gasoline, winter gasoline, and Reid vapor pressure. Archived here.

If you’ve filled up the tank in your car, SUV, or pickup in the past few days, you probably bought your first batch of winter-blend gasoline since the spring. It’s unlikely that you noticed a difference — only a refining geek with a nose for this sort of thing would — but winter gasoline has a higher Reid Vapor Pressure than summer gasoline, and therefore evaporates more quickly and emits more fumes. There’s a logic to EPA’s mandated switchover from lower-RVP gasoline to higher-RVP gasoline each September, and their switch back to lower-RVP each April/May. For one thing, using different gasoline blends during the colder and warmer months helps ensure that your engine runs well year-round; for another, reducing gasoline vapor pressure in the summer reduces emissions that contribute to smog. Today, we discuss gasoline RVP, why it matters, and how refineries ramp it up and down. (A hint is in the blog’s title.)