Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Clearing Out The In-Box -- For The Archives -- September 30, 2020

Migration: pending home sales hit all-time high. I love it when unmarried millennial journalists, who have no children, own no car, and have never been west of the Hudson River, come up with these explanations: "August pending home sales soar to a record high, fueled by rock-bottom mortgage rates." 

Link here.  

Hellloooooo ... mortgage rates have been at rock-bottom rates for two (?) years. What fueled home sales in August -- mortgage rates were helpful but why now? Why not a year ago? Why not six months ago? Why not six months from now?

Moms.

Moms are moving their families out of places like NYC to where it's save from BLM, defunded police departments, Covid-19 craziness, school teachers on strike, and the list goes on and on and on. 

Remember: Americans, back in March, were under the impression the Covid thing would end before Memorial Day. Now they realize, Dr Faust was talking about Memorial Day, 2022. 

Moms.

Sometime after Memorial Day, Moms realized Covid was not going to go away any time soon, certainly not before the beginning of this next school year. 

Moms are moving their families out of places like NYC into the suburbs, across the river, upstate, out of state, anywhere -- just to flee BLM, Antifa, Covid-19. 

Families were moving in August to get settled in their new school districts. This is not rocket science.

Another link here:  https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/09/30/flight-from-the-cities-pending-home-sales-hit-all-time-high/

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The Vaccine War

Speaking of "the" vaccine, this book has just been published, The Doctor Who Fooled The World. The modern anti-vaccination movement persists even though the research that started it has been completely debunked. Line to The WSJ

Elon Musk: says he won't get the "Covid-19 vaccine" when/if it becomes available. Calls high school graduate Bill Gates a "knucklehead." Link here.  

Kash 'n Karry: another guy who doesn't get it. Says a vaccine is needed to get to "normal economy." He would do well to read the history of the Spanish flu. Lots of books in the local library on Spanish flu. Link here. Remember, this is the guy that wanted to shut down the economy for another six months or whatever it was. 

The rally is coming. Link here.

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Miscellaneous

Never mind. Nikola postpones "Nikola World" event as original GM partnership deadline passes by. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. It will be interesting to see if GM signs on as partner. Link here

Commie: it is beyond dispute that James Comey is the most dishonest and corrupt FBI director in US history. Which is really saying something given J. Edgar Hoover's history. Link here

Peak oil? What peak oil? Equinor announces a new oil and gas discovery -- in the Swisher prospect offshore Norway; 13 - 38 million boe. I thought Equinor was giving up on oil and turning to wind and solar. LOL.  

COP: will restart buybacks

US crude oil supply: in days -- back to 37 days. Link here. This is really an interesting exercise, calculating days of supply. In a normal year, one could probably just look at history but now, with Covid-19, it's much, much more difficult. If Joe Biden shuts down the country again like Kash 'n Karry would advise, that would change everything.

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Waggoner Of Ft Worth

Electra Waggoner Biggs.

Texas Monthly: "The Texas 100: Money Becomes Electra."

Obituary for Electra's dad.

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Twin #2

Grandson #2.

Seven months old. 



Meridian Refinery Update -- Williston Herald Paywall -- But Headlines Say It All -- September 30, 2020

Link here, behind a paywall, but headline says it all:

  • ND Supreme Court rules refinery can begin construction;
  • delay gave Meridian time to optimize blueprints

Google:

Road To Mexico -- September 30, 2020

Road to Mexico, link here:

ND Legacy Fund Deposits -- September, 2020

 Legacy Fund link here.

Then, look at this, from twitter this morning: in the US -- Bakken #1 "trending toward normal." This is quite incredible. Over at the sidebar at the right: the Permian or the Bakken? Who gets back to normal faster? 

And, more, see the EIA dashboards:

No New Permits; WTI Up About A Dollar After Weekly EIA Report; Jobs Report; Consumer Confidence -- September 30, 2020

 Active rigs:

$40.22
9/30/202009/30/201909/30/201809/30/201709/30/2016
Active Rigs1158675833

No new permits.

Nine permits renewed:

  • Bruin E&P (6): six FB Clinton permits renewed in Dunn County;
  • QEP (3): two MHA permits in Dunn County renewed, and a Cymbaluk Federal permit in Stark County renewed.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 31968, SI/A, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen Trust 153-95-17D-7-4H, Charlson, no production data,
  • 37309, drl/A, WPX, Omaha Woman 24-13-12HIL, Squaw Creek, t--; cum --;
From the file report, #31968, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen:
  • parallels #34611; see this note; halo effect; jump in production;
  • spud: April 18, 2019;
  • cease drilling: May 16, 2019
  • extended long lateral;
  • target: Three Forks
  • spacing unit: 1920 acre
  • logging began within the Charles at 8,300 feet on April 26, 2019, at 12:00 p.m. CT
  • KOP reached at 9,810 feet on April 28, 2019, 1:45 a.m.
  • lateral began at 11:43 p.m.CT, May 4, 2019
  • TD reached at 23,486' on May 16, 2019 at 7:00 p.m. CT
  • if no typos, a long time to drill this lateral;
  • fracked 7/10/2020 - 7/30/20; 17.242 million gallons of water; 91.86% water by mass

From the file report, #37309, WPX, Omaha Woman:

  • drilling unit: 3840 acres; extended long lateral; 
  • middle Bakken; facies C, D, and E
  • spud February 5, 2020; curve operations began February 10, 2020; concluded on February 11, 2020; lateral operation began on April 2, 2020, and concluded on April 5, 2020
  • T: 26,883'
  • 10' thick target; about 15' below the top of the middle Bakken formation, making the seam about 40' thick; typical for the middle Bakken;
  • fracked 8/1/20 - 8/22/20; 8.94 million gallons of water; 84.69% water by mass;

Color Code Needs To Be Updated -- Obfuscating The Obvious -- What's Going On In Bismarck? -- Corona In North Dakota -- September 30

Link here

We've talked about this before. The Bismarck Tribune needs to update the color-code scheme. Give me a break. Active cases in these quartiles:

  • 1 - 4;
  • 5 - 9;
  • 10 - 29;
  • 30 or more.

Fargo (Cass - 552), Bismarck (Burleigh - 703) and Dickinson (Stark 319) hiding behind Rolette (41), McHenry (31), and, Logan (32).

We know what's going on in Fargo, but what the heck is going on in Bismarck? At 703, it's 27% higher than Fargo (Cass County), in number 2 position.

Deaths?

  • Fargo (Cass): a whopping 77;
  • Bismarck (Burleigh): a much more reasonable number, 49
  • total deaths in the core Bakken (Williams, McKenzie, Mountrail, and Dunn): 12
  • Minot (Ward) with 11 total deaths almost equals total number of deaths in the core Bakken

Also, link here

Gasoline Demand -- Good News, Bad News? -- September 30, 2020

Link here. Good news, bad news? I don't know. These are some of the story lines:

  • overall gasoline demand continues to decline after a fairly strong recovery, but
  • the trend parallels last year's demand,
  • suggesting the "demand line" has been re-set.

It will be interesting to follow this "gap."

Weekly EIA Report -- Pretty Much Unchanged; No Surprises -- September 30, 2020

Weekly EIA report, link here:

  • US crude oil stored in the US: 492.4 million bbls
  • US crude oil change since previous report: decreased by 2.0 million bbls
  • US refineries operating at 75.8% -- essentially no change
  • distillate fuel production decreased a bit last week
  • US crude oil imports showed almost no change week-over-week
  • average about 22% less than same four-week period last year
  • jet fuel supplied still down almost 505 compared with same period last year

Re-balancing:

Week

Date of Report=

Change

Million Bbls Storage

Week 0

November 21, 2018

4.9

446.9

Week 1

November 28, 2018

3.6

450.5

Week 2

December 6, 2018

-7.3

443.2

Week 3

December 12, 2018

-1.2

442.0

Week 4

December 19, 2018

-0.5

441.5

Week 5

December 28, 2018

0.0

441.4

Week 84

July 15, 2020

-7.5

531.7

Week 85

July 22, 2020

4.9

536.6

Week 86

July 29, 2020

-10.6

526.0

Week 87

August 5, 2020

-7.4

518.6

Week 88

August 12, 2020

-4.5

514.1

Week 89

August 19, 2020

-1.6

512.5

Week 90

August 26, 2020

-4.7

507.8

Week 91

September 2, 2020

-9.4

498.4

Week 92

September 10, 2020

2.0

500.5

Week 93

September 16, 2020

-4.4

496.0

Week 94

September 23, 2020

-1.6

494.4

Week 95

September 30, 2020

-2.0

492.4

Crude oil imports:

Crude Oil Imports





Week (week-over-week)

Date of Report

Raw Data, millions of bbls

Change (millions of bbls)

Four-week period comparison

Week 0

March 11, 2029

6.4

0.174


Week 1

March 18, 2020

6.5

0.127


Week 2

March 25, 2020

6.1

-0.422


Week 3

April 1, 2020

6.0

-0.070


Week 4

April 8, 2020

5.9

-0.173


Week 5

April 15, 2020

5.7

-0.194


Week 6

April 22, 2020

5.6

-0.700


Week 7

April 29, 2020

5.3

0.365

-19.700%

Week 8

May 6, 2020

5.7

0.410


Week 9

May 13, 2020

5.4

-0.321

-26.100%

Week 10

May 20, 2020

5.2

-0.194


Week 11

May 28, 2020

7.2

2.000

-16.400%

Week 12

June 3, 2020

6.2

-1.000

-18.300%

Week 13

June 10, 2020

6.4

0.000

-13.300%

Week 14

June 17, 2020

6.6

-0.222

-10.000%

Week 15

June 24, 2020

6.5

-0.102

-11.600%

Week 16

July 1, 2020

6.5

-0.600

-11.300%

Week 17

July 8, 2020

7.4

1.400

-8.500%

Week 18

July 15, 2020

7.5

-1.800

-10.200%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

5.9

0.373

-13.500%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

5.1

-0.800

-13.600%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

6.0

0.900

-18.100%

Week 22

August 12, 2020

5.6

-0.389

-20.400%

Week 23

August 19, 2020

5.7

0.109

-21.700%

Week 24

August 26, 2020

5.9

0.185

-16.900%

Week 25

September 2, 2020

4.9

-1.000

-20.200%

Week 26

September 10, 2020

5.4

0.500

-17.900%

Week 27

September 16, 2020

5.0

-0.416

-20.100%

Week 28

September 23, 2020

5.2

0.160

-24.200%

Week 29

September 30, 2020

5.1

0.045

-21.600%

Distillate production:

Distillate Fuel Inventories




Week

Date of Report

Change in Millions

Relative to 5-Yr Avg

Week 1

August 26, 2020

1.40

24.0%

Week 2

September 2, 2020

-1.70

23.0%

Week 3

September 10, 2020

-1.70

20.0%

Week 4

September 16, 2020

3.50

22.0%

Week 5

September 23, 2020

-3.40

21.0%

Week 6

September 30, 2020

-3.20

21.0%

Jet fuel supplied:

Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week



Week

Date of Report

Change

Week 0

3/7/2020

-12.80%

Week 1

3/14/2020

-12.60%

Week 2

3/21/2020

-8.90%

Week 3

3/28/2020

-16.40%

Week 4

4/4/2020

-0.22%

Week 18

July 15, 2020

-51.90%

Week 19

July 22, 2020

-47.70%

Week 20

July 29, 2020

-42.10%

Week 21

August 5, 2020

-40.90%

Week 22

August 12, 2020

-45.80%

Week 23

August 19, 2020

-47.60%

Week 24

August 26, 2020

-45.70%

Week 25

September 2, 2020

-47.10%

Week 26

September 10, 2020

-45.10%

Week 27

September 16, 2020

-45.60%

Week 28

September 23, 2020

-45.80%

Week 29

September 30, 2020

-46.10%