Saturday, September 19, 2020

Off The Net For The Night -- Good Luck To All -- September 19, 2020

For the archives.

Taken about the time networks were reporting that Ruth Bader Ginsburg had died, Friday, September 18, 2020, 5:40 p.m. CDT. 

Some nights, all one can do is contemplate water.

This will probably end up being one of my favorite photos of Sophia. We've shared a lot over six years.

This EOG Hawkeye Well, Once Inactive, Is Now Back On Active List -- September 19, 2020

The well:

  • 22487, 67 (no typo), EOG, Hawkeye 02-2501H, Clarks Creek, t12/13; cum 854K 7/20; went offline 6/19;3-section spacing; 1,741 acres in the spacing unit; sister well to the well announced earlier with 200,000 bbls in less than 5 months; another 15,000-ft horizontal; trip gas over 4,000 units; remains off line 7/19; back on line 8/19; off line 11/19; remains off line 4/20; see this post;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202024800182423041820
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-2020002230000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20197756574118766885615214
BAKKEN10-2019202330229739381820914720929
BAKKEN9-201914814842128769736334338
BAKKEN8-20193033443279530437977341822714
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20192940964273544149131368828532

This EOG Hawkeye Well, Once Inactive, Is Now Back On The Active List -- September 19, 2020

The well:

  • 22486,2,421, EOG, Hawkeye 100-2501H, Clarks Creek (see stand-alone post); 3-section spacing (1,920 acres); will this be a long lateral (9,000 feet) or a much-talked-about-seldom-seen-super-long lateral (14,000 feet)? I'm betting the latter. If accurate, a huge "thank you" to a reader. This well is NORTHEAST of Watford City. [Turned out to be 25,101 feet long. Yes, a super-long lateral, almost 3 sections long.] Did Lynn Helms misspeak or was he misquoted in The Bismarck Tribune when he said there was a gusher NORTHWEST of Watford City? If there is still another gusher NORTHWEST of Watford City that is better than this well, we are talking some big wells in the Bakken, Three Forks; 47 stages; 14 million lbs of sand, 1920-acre spacing unit; t9/12; cum 784K 7/20;remains off line 10/19; back on line 10/19; off line as of 11/19; remains off line 4/20; back on line and active, 7/20:

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2020215001521700
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-2020002030000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-2019774261791669158622
BAKKEN10-20191618461772236919700

A Newfield Moberg Federal Well Joins The Half-Million-Bbl Club -- September19, 2020

 The well:

  • 20170, 2,939, Newfield, Moberg Federal 149-95-29-32-2H, Bear Den, t5/12; cum 500K/7/20;a jump in production, 5/18; off line as of 8/19; remains off line 1/20; back on line 2/20;

Recent production (not the jump in production):

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-2020312314226070511157108780
BAKKEN6-2020302472245784210786105115
BAKKEN5-2020311603136190879167337322
BAKKEN4-20203021842487870848965871648
BAKKEN3-202031293427221295755642513026
BAKKEN2-202021130911951198357333900
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-201924906970377388723021377
BAKKEN10-201924729970583344812921968

It's Official: A Short Lateral, EOG Austin Well In Parshall, Drilled In 2008, Joins The Million-Bbl-Club -- September 19, 2020

The well:

  • 17222, 1,769, EOG, Austin 18-21H, Parshall, t9/08; cum 1.001656 million bbls / 7/20 inactive as of 2/16; back on status as of 6/16; off line 5/20; back on line 7/20;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20203022422185602645562740
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20202315031562372499248590
BAKKEN3-20203122362238457620560150
BAKKEN2-20202922442242456602758490
BAKKEN1-20203125082513496702568350
BAKKEN12-20193126052605488654463540
BAKKEN11-20193025512553469582356390
BAKKEN10-20193126162614425566854780
BAKKEN9-20193024432443353509549120
BAKKEN8-201929224122402794685443579
BAKKEN7-201922170916621823427328510
BAKKEN6-2019131016106414319961804115
BAKKEN5-20193125552553355485634331233

For The Archives -- Notes From All Over -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 19, 2020

Wow, it's a busy, busy night on television. I'm going back and forth on not less than four "channels" and none of them are football, BLM, or MLB. But even so, busier than ever. 

Busy, busy hurricane season. Look at this (from CNN, you may want to fact check it):

The historic 2005 Atlantic hurricane season produced so many named storms that it reached the letter Zeta in the Greek alphabet. That means the season had a total of 27 named storms; the most in any single season. 
With more than two months left until the end of Atlantic hurricane season, 2020 could surpass the 2005 in number of named storms. Already this year is far ahead of pace compared to the 2005 season. In 2005, Tropical Storm Alpha was named October 22. In 2020, Alpha was named on September 18, nearly five weeks earlier than the 2005 storm of the same name.
Affecting "our" area of interest, we had "no/lo-impact Laura"; then Sally (mostly rain); and, now starting over with the second time through the alphabet, tropical storm Beta lingering over the gulf off southeast Texas -- think Corpus Christi, maybe a bit north. Still a tropical storm but if anything gathering strength.

Texas Hand-Washing Standards -- A Reminder -- September 19, 2020

The Texas state governor relaxed Covid-19 restrictions effective Monday, September 20, 2020, but reminded folks of the Texas standard for hand-washing.


**************************************
Hypocrisy Starts With The Letter H
The Literature Page: Hamlet

From a reader (certainly I wouldn't suggest this):

There are battles being waged over the replacement of Ruth Ginsburg.

Hamlet's quote comes to mind ..."Hoist with his own petard"

Here are some interesting things that aren't being reported:
 


***********************
Movie Night

Wow, it never quits. Tonight on TCM: Guys and Dolls, 1955.

Can you believe this -- I did not know this and had not seen it -- directed by Joseph L. Mankiewicz; screenplay by Mankiewicz and Ben Hecht? Wow. And then the cast: Marlon Brando, Frank Sinatra, Vivian Blaine and Jean Simmons.

Wow. 

Ben Hecht is most interesting. Born in NYC, in 1894 near the fin de si├Ęcle,

at age 16, Hecht ran away to Chicago, where, in his own words, he "haunted streets, whorehouses, police stations, courtrooms, theater stages, jails, saloons, slums, madhouses, fires, murders, riots, banquet halls, and bookshops". 
In the 1910s and early 1920s, Hecht became a noted journalist, foreign correspondent, and literary figure. In the 1920s, his co-authored, reporter-themed play, The Front Page, became a Broadway hit.

Look at the list of screenplays he wrote; boggles the imagination.

For Alfred Hitchcock he wrote a number of his best psycho-dramas and received his final Academy Award nomination for Notorious. He also worked without credit on Hitchcock's next two films, The Paradine Case (1947) and Rope (1948). Spellbound, the first time Hitchcock worked with Hecht, is notable for being one of the first Hollywood movies to deal seriously with the subject of psychoanalysis.

Sturgis Rally Update -- September 19, 2020

Link here.

Sturgis Rally: August 7 - August 16, 2020.

At link above, set "search" for "yesterday."

Number of cases means absolutely nothing.

Number of deaths associated with Covid-19 "means more" but numbers are incredibly questionable. Criteria for diagnosis varies across jurisdiction.

This is Saturday. I don't know how accurate these numbers are. It would mean that the state health officers would have had to come into work on a Saturday to post the results for "yesterday." The next set of numbers that might be more reliable will be Tuesday, September 22, 2020. 

But be that as it may, new deaths in last 24 hours:

  • Montana: 3
  • Wyoming: 0
  • North Dakota: 2
  • South Dakota: 5
  • Nebraska: 0
  • Iowa: 10 --- OUCH!
  • Minnesota: 8 

Deaths per million population, and (ranking among 50 states and DC):

  • Iowa: 400 (23) -- ranking unchanged
  • Minnesota: 355 (27)  -- ranking unchanged
  • North Dakota: 241 (37) -- ranking unchanged
  • Nebraska: 228 (39) -- ranking unchanged
  • South Dakota: 224 (40) -- ranking unchanged
  • Montana: 137 (44) -- moved up to 44 from 45 yesterday (bad)
  • Wyoming: 85 (50) -- moved down to 50 from 29 yesterday (good)

***********************************
Commentary

I surfed through a number of "sports networks" today, and a new trend seems to be developing. Outside of New York and New Jersey, it seems states are tip-toeing toward a post-Covid-19 "normality."

Right now, NASCAR racing at Bristol, TN/VA. The stands are about as "full" as one expects any more at a NASCAR race even though strict limits were placed on the number that could attend. I'm sure it's not 50% filled but it certainly looks close. Racers, pit crews, officials, and announcers are wearing masks to "play the game," but not many are taking it seriously. Most folks wearing masks have let the masks slip below their noses. Certainly no social distancing on the track or infield. 

So, it appears the nation's governors are falling into two groups:

  • one set of governors who don't want any more Covid-19-associated deaths; none, period (NY, NJ)
  • another set of governors who have accepted the original goal: "to flatten the curve" and accept "what will be"

Understanding the nature of pandemics, the set of governors taking the second route will probably see an end to the pandemic more quickly than the ones that continue draconian measures. 

This will fascinating to watch. I'm most interested in Florida and Texas.

Que Sera Sera, Doris Day

Commentary -- Week 38: September 13, 2020 - September 19, 2020

Of all the top stories posted for this last week, I think this story is the biggest international story: 

Turkey gets unprecedented downgrade, crisis warning from Moody's. Key word: unprecedented. Link here.

There is nothing in the tea leaves to suggest that things will improve in Turkey in my investing lifetime. I now add Turkey to the shortlist of countries that will join Venezuela in the international race to the bottom:

  • Venezuela
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Mexico
  • Turkey
  • Cuba

I've added Cuba to the list: after the death of Fidel Castro there was a window of opportunity to reverse direction but their leadership failed them.

Iran is not on that list because of most of their problems are secondarily a result of President Trump's policies. With a change in administration, Iran could yet reverse course. 

Greece? I have no idea how Greece is doing but the country has not been in the news much.

EVs: there seems to be a huge disconnect when it comes to EVs. 

There has now been another major poll/survey released suggesting that consumers are not all that enamored with EVs yet.

On the other hand, we see story after story of start-ups and legacy automobile manufacturers racing to get their "halo" EVs to market.

At the end of the day, the startups are looking at making money on regulatory credits; while, legacy automobile manufacturers are getting tired of paying guys like Elon Musk for those same regulatory credits. It will only accelerate under a Biden administration. Legacy manufacturers must have done "back-of-the-envelope" calculations to figure out they can sell EVs at a loss, but make money on the regulatory-credits side of the ledger. 

The timing is very interesting.

The "2020 pandemic" has given the legacy  manufacturers a window of opportunity. They weren't going to get their "halo" cars to market until 2021 at the earliest -- thus ceding a huge advantage to Tesla, but the "2020 pandemic" has certainly put stress on Tesla, giving its competitors a bit of an opportunity. When the "2020 pandemic"  and the fallout ends in 2021 (Trump), 2023 (Biden), 2025 (de Blasio), or 2033 (Fauci), the legacy auto manufacturers will be ready to go.

Before it's all over, #1 EV manufacturer? That's easy: Volkswagen.

In the big scheme of things, it doesn't matter. The earth comes to an end in 2030 (AOC).

Most fascinating: the EV niche?

  • high-end, luxury sedans?
  • mid-range (price), family sedans:
  • utilitarian, cheap (think AMC Gremlins), millennials' alternatives to mass transit?
  • urban pick-ups?
  • rural pick-ups?
  • fleets: US Post Office; FedEx; Amazon: UPS?
  • new homeowners?
  • existing homeowners?
  • apartment dwellers?

Signs that the "2020 pandemic" is coming to an end:

  • Biden breaking social distancing rules to whisper in Anderson Cooper's left ear (or to smell his hair); subconsciously he's not worried; politically he has to play the game;
  • Biden backtracking on masks; ditto
  • Big 10 football flip-flop; no longer worried about player safety; it's all about the Benjamins
  • United Airlines adds a Denver-Williston flight at a time when airlines are cutting their routes
  • most incredible: NYC mayor and NY governor and US senior senator from New York so incredibly scared of the virus, they are willing to shut down the city for a full year; see next item
  • the stories regarding the railroads the past two weeks: buyouts; backlog at the Los Angeles/Long Beach ports; rail volumes;

Covid-19: NYC mayor and NY governor and US senior senator from New York so incredibly scared of the virus, they are willing to shut down the city for a full year. This year, 2020 - 2021 is set. 

One of the things I learned while serving in the military for thirty years and a day is that there was a reason the federal government's fiscal year was not the same as the calendar year.

The calendar year is January through December. But the federal government's fiscal year is October 1 through September 30.  That is the same calendar mothers use. It's all about the school year.

Parents are set this year: thy have settled into their school districts and they aren't going to move mid-year. If there is any chance at all -- any chance at all -- that the New York triumvirate (Schumer - Cuomo - de Blasio) fail to move NYC back to pre-Covid conditions, many (most?) of those folks who have left NYC will not return.

More likely, more will leave. And they are not going to move to New Jersey which has recently increased their state income taxes. Where will they move? Young families with children will move to upstate NY and Connecticut. Working families without children and retirees will move to Florida. Bottom line: watch the NYC tea leaves next June, 2021, to see which way the wind is blowing. 

My hunch: a lot of big companies spending a lot of money renting business space in NYC will use the rest of this year to decide whether it makes sense to move back to NYC or not. We will start seeing those decisions that were made following the 2021 presidential inauguration speech. 

Forest fires on the west coast: there is so much in this bag of worms that it's a fool's errand to even think about discussing it. As soon as anyone mentions "global warming" in the discussion, I either quit listening or quit reading and move on. Two things that have to be accepted:

  • forest management (graze it, log it, or watch it burn); even Govenor Newsom has said that publicly;
  • transmission lines: geographical locations of electric utility power plants
    • nuclear reactors along the Pacific coast: transmission lines to major urban centers (Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego) -- transmission lines went through no forests
    • wind and solar farms in the east of these western states, and in the valleys -- transmission lines went through hundreds of miles of forests and grassland

And we move on.

Price of oil: the sweet spot -- I've said this for years -- for the US, the sweet spot is $51 to $54. And we're not even close yet. Does anyone really think WTI could move from $40 to $50/bbl by the end of the year?

  • Headwinds:
    • Covid-19: still uncertain
    • gasoline demand turned down this past week; no longer a "v-recovery for gasoline demand"
    • driving season for the year is over
  • Tailwinds? One:
    • Saudi jawboning higher prices.

Future of the Bakken? No idea. 

My Michelob weekend: starting summer of 2025.

Two New Themes For 2020 Have Been Added -- September 19, 2020

Over at the sidebar at the right, I have, generally at the top, themes for the current year.

For the archives, this was started in 2020. 

For 2020, I have added two new themes:

  • forest management in the US
  • Mexico headed down the road to Venezuela

Turkey's Erdogan: "hold my beer."

Week 38: September 13, 2020 -- September 19, 2020

Note: some links may be broken; the "blogger" app was a bit buggy today.

Top story of the week:

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:

  • LongX Bridge: at least two lanes will be open this fall; when that happens demolition of old bridge will begin;
  • Airline passenger numbers continue to improve; recovering faster than the national average; Minot with strongest improvement; Williston is lagging far below normal
  • Unmanned Aircraft Systems Beyond Visual Line of Sight: statewide network; first stage: Williston/Watford City area; L3Harris Technologies and Thales USA will build out the baseline key site infrastructure
  • Watford City Drivers License Office reopens
  • Norwegian architecture firm picked to design Roosevelt library
  • UA adding another flight, Denver-Williston
  • Biden promises no new pipelines and big challenges in obtaining federal permits
  • Biden Blackouts are the new "thing"

Operators:

Operations:

Fracking:

50-Year-Old Farmer Named CEO Of BNSF -- September 19, 2020

From celebpie:

  • education: Texas Christian University
  • height: 1.7 meters

United Airlines Adding Flight At Williston International Airport -- Williston Herald -- September 19, 2020

 Link here.

Air service at the Williston Basin International Airport has been scaled back in recent months due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with Delta Airlines making the decision earlier this year to suspend service at the airport, and United Airlines reducing their number of flights. United has been operating one flight to daily, but will now be adding an additional daily flight to Denver beginning October 1, 2020.

What Could Possibly Go Wrong? -- September 19, 2020

From Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories this week:

What in the world are they thinking. Hydrogen is in column #1 of the periodic table -- the most "active" column in the table. Helium? Column #8, the inert column. 


And people think Bakken oil off-gassing is dangerous. LOL. 

Rig Counts Don't Matter: Hey, We're Back In The Saddle Again -- September 19, 2020

Down to ten -- count 'em -- ten -- active oil and gas rigs and North Dakota production back over one million bopd. Don't take this out of context. Low rig counts are hurting thousands of workers, including truckers. I would love to see the rig count back to 200. But for investors focused on rig count in shale is the wrong metric. 

Fast And Furious -- Fifteen Minutes -- September 19, 2020

Playing the press. I really enjoy watching the president play the press. First thing he said when the press asked him about RBG. "Wow, I did not know that. That she died. Wow." LOL. He was the first to know. I love watching him play the gullible press. 

Self-inflicted pain:

  • over at Twitter, data presented to show that driving, you know the thing (cars and trucks) has returned to pre-Covid levels (in some cases surpassing them) in all major cities around the world with two exceptions: the Mideast and NYC
  • Yellow cab drivers face food insecurity; taxi cab volume down 92% year-over-year; link here;
  • NYC Yellow cabs block traffic across main thoroughfares, bridges in and around Manhattan; nothing else to do anyway; and, they will still vote to put the incumbents back in office; these guys all voted for their current mayor; no sympathy from this quarter

To paraphrase Tennessee Ernie Ford: defund the police and what do you get? 

A whopping 52% jump in homicides from 2019 -- five times any prior year -- Chicago. Five time any prior year. Link here. My hunch: not a bad thing. Sort of like the riots: mostly peaceful.

US LNG export terminals: we're back! That's the nice thing about fossil fuels. Only so much storage, and it all gets used up. Platts S&P Global  link here.

  • LNG netbacks from Dutch TTF widen to near ytd highs
  • Freeport LNG, Corpus Christi liquefaction see ramp-up

US light: energy independence

AMLO's sense of humor: Dos Bocas refinery completion date is 2023. Had to laugh. An analyst was called out on this over on twitter. Her defense? She says she was being diplomatic. Diplomatic on twitter? Sorry. Not sorry.

Limbo (or should we say, "in limbo"): how low can they go? Mexico's refinery capacity utilization is 33%. Link here.

Speaking of how low can it go? COP's dividend "shaky." Link here to SeekingAlpha.

Survivor: Enbridge. A new solar / gas project, and an 8% yield. Link here to SeekingAlpha

DAPL: federal appeals court set November 4, 2020, court date for DAPL. When's the presidential election? I've lost that bubble.  Oh, there it is, one day after the election. LOL. Tell me again this isn't political. LOL. 

  • Something screwy in Fargo: they're reading the blog. Bismark Tribune finally posting the map again. Total deaths:
    • Fargo: 77
    • Mandan-Bismarck: 45
    • the entire four-county core of the Bakken: 10
    • Watford City: 2 
    • Grand Forks: 12
    • Sioux: 3

Weekend reads:

  • five Covid-19 aftershocks reshaping mobility's future: McKinsey & Company, link here. This alone is worth the price of subscription to the blog. Renew your subscription now.

************************************
The Movie Page

Cheated: the four nominees who lost to Art Carney in 1975. Art Carney won best actor Oscar for role in Harry and Tonto beating out Albert Finney (Murder on the Orient Express); Dustin Hoffman (Lenny); Jack Nicholson (Chinatown); and, Al Pacino (The Godfather Part II). Harry and Tonto? Most boring movie ever and Art Carney? He was better in the The Honeymooners

*******************************
The Sports Page

Nothing to say. Not watching anything. No interest in BLM, NHL, or NFL. Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Are you kidding me? NHL: Dallas Stars in the finals. Wow, I didn't know that. Exception: PGA tournament this weekend. Wow. Both Phil and Tiger missed the cuts. Phil Mickelson finally took off his sunglasses for the last few holes on Friday.