Thursday, September 17, 2020

The New Whiting Maki Permits -- September 17, 2020

These should be some very interesting wells to watch:

Two new permits, #37846 - #37847, inclusive:

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for two new Maki wells in Sanish oil field, NWNW 27-154-91, about 435' FNL and 245' FWL;

The graphics


The wells:

  • 17612, IA/4,345, Whiting, Maki 11-27H, Sanish, t10/09; cum 882K 11/19; offline since 11/19;
  • 21629, 461, Whiting, Jorgensen 11-27H, Sanish, t2/12; cum 362K 7/20;
  • 27842, 327, Whiting, Jorgensen 31-27H, Sanish, t/14; cum 188K 11/19; off line since 11/19;
  • 20358, 337, Whiting, Ray 12-27TFH, Sanish, t12/11; cum 153K 7/20; off line 5/20 - 6/20;
  • 18530, 2,686, Whiting, Jorgensen 12-27H, Sanish, t5/10; cum 596K 7/20;
  • 25932, 277, Whiting, Oja 13-27-3XH, Sanish, t2/14; cum 434K 7/20; 
  • 25931, 328, Whiting, Oja 13-27-2XH, Sanish, t2/14; cum 254K 7/20;  
  • 19512, IA1,959, Whiting, Oja 14-27XH, Sanish, t2/11; cum 432K 6/19; off line since 6/19;

Re-Balancing: Oversupply To Last Longer Than Expected -- Source -- September 17, 2020

The first time I ever tagged a post with re-balancing was back on January 24, 2017. It's worth a read. I might re-post it as a "flashback" article some time. 

Between then and now, on a weekly basis, I have posted the amount of US crude oil in storage. The most recent spreadsheet pretty much tells the story:

I had to hide a lot of rows; if I didn't the spreadsheet would scroll for quite some time.

  • week 0, November 21, 2018: 446.9 million bbls crude oil in US storage
  • between then and now; rigs drop 75% or thereabouts; and, offshore drilling is pretty much dead;
  • week 93, September 16, 2020: 496.0 million bbls crude oil in US storage an increase of almost 11%.


Now this, finally someone seems to be paying attention. Linking to Irina Slave:

OPEC and the International Energy Agency delivered bad news for the oil market this week. Both authorities revised their oil demand forecasts for this year, and both revised them downwards. But it is not just demand that will continue to weigh on oil prices. Supply is excessive and likely to remain so until the end of next year. On Monday, OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report that it expected oil demand this year to shrink by 9.5 million bpd. That’s an upward revision of 400,000 bpd, from an expected contraction of 9.1 million bpd in August.

A day later, the IEA, in the latest release of its Oil Market Report, said it expected demand this year to contract by 8.4 million bpd. That’s a larger demand growth contraction than they were anticipated in the previous month, when the oil industry body expected a smaller contraction of 8.1 million bpd. 

Neither picture is rosy.

What’s even less rosy are the projections for supply. According to both authorities, at the end of next year, the global oil supply will be above levels from end-2019. The exact amount by which end-2021 stocks will exceed end-2019 stocks vary, but the very fact both OPEC and the IEA expect higher oil stockpiles after more than a year of sizeable OPEC+ production cuts is telling. And the story it is telling is not a happy one.

Re-balancing? LOL.

EVs And  Watches -- September 17, 2020


I posted this on September 4, 2020: in the UK, interest in buying a new EV has fallen from 16 percent to four percent.

While new electric car sales have been rising, there are also signs that the pandemic has hurt consumers’ ability to pay the upfront costs of the cars, which tend to be significantly more expensive than fossil-fuel powered vehicles.  

Auto Trader found that the percentage of customers considering buying a battery electric car fell from 16 per cent in January to 4 per cent last month, with half saying their finances had deteriorated because of the economic impact of coronavirus.

This corroborates my feelings that EVs are a luxury item bought by folks when times are flush, and with plenty of money to spend.  

Now, this by Charles Kennedy: UK car buyers aren't sold on EVs.

A total of 79 percent of UK drivers would consider buying an electric vehicle (EV) or have already purchased one, but 70 percent would prefer to lease an EV for 2-3 years to try out the technology and decide if it is right for them, a new survey showed.

According to the survey of 2,025 UK drivers, while nearly 80 percent would consider buying an EV, misconceptions and uncertainty about the technology still exist. Even among those who would think about buying an electric car, a good 40 percent admitted that they had reservations about the capabilities and technology of electric vehicles, Auto Trader’s survey found.

Half of UK drivers are apprehensive about the EV range and feel nervous about how far they could travel on a single charge.

Range anxiety is top of the list of worries for UK drivers, with 51 percent feeling nervous how far they can drive on one charge, followed closely by the lack of public charging points across the UK, with 49 percent of drivers expressing this worry.

Only 7 percent of drivers admitted they would miss the purr of a traditionally fuelled engine, Auto Trader’s survey showed.

The UK is currently considering whether to bring forward the deadline for phasing out the new sales of gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles to 2035 or even sooner from the current deadline 2040.

****************************************
Apple

If I were a cardiologist and a patient asked me if he should buy a new  Watch, what do you think my answer would be?

Now, what percent of Americans have some form of heart disease?

  • 5%
  • 10%
  • 15%
  • 20%
  • 25%

And we move on.

Distance Learning For The Archives -- Nothing About The Bakken -- September 17, 2020

This is really a fun story. 

Sophia had several assignments today: art, music, humanities, physical education.

Sophia completed two of the four assignments, and we moved on to humanities.

Her assignment in humanities:

  • print three sentences on something she likes to do;
  • draw a picture after printing those three sentences;
  • submit a picture of the completed work to the teacher.

I suggested to Sophia that she might write about riding her bike. She said, "No, I want to write about baking pancakes." LOL. Okay.

So, she started working on her dry erase board. 

Light bulb went on.

I immediately went to the kitchen -- five steps away in our little hovel -- and got out the Bisquick, egg(s), milk, and vegetable oil, and whipped up a bowl of waffle batter. (The recipe calls for one egg; I cut back on the milk slightly and use two eggs.)

I got the waffle iron out -- and Sophia said, "What? I said pancakes, not waffles." I said no one would notice, but she was adamant. She wanted to make pancakes. 

I put away the Mickey Mouse waffle maker and got out the griddle. I figured waffle batter and pancake batter look about the same. LOL.

So, the video below, and the photos -- these were submitted to her teacher. She printed her three sentences and drew a picture of chocolate chip pancakes.

And the waffle-pancakes with chocolate chips? Sophia said they were delicious.






Winner: Cisco -- Loser: Apple -- September 17, 2020

In the big scheme of things, I have no idea how Apple completely missed this one. 

There are four big names in easily accessible, readily available, commercial teleconferencing and social relations:

  • Zoom Video Communications
  • Cisco Webex
  • Microsoft Teams
  • Apple Facebook

This, today, from the PGA US Open on NBC, a Microsoft partner, says it all:

And, nationwide, it's my understanding that public schools are using Cisco Webex for distance learning. That's the platform that Sophia is using, and it's simply incredible.

*******************************
The Jobless Report

I'm not watching CNBC for the next week or so, so I'm not getting any spin. 

When I went to pick up Sophia tonight, I've haven't seen such heavy traffic in a long, long time. 

That reminded me: what was the jobless report today? Other than the screen shot below I haven't looked at anything else. But it certainly looks like things are getting better really, really fast.

In addition, the governor of Texas announced today really, really relaxed restrictions beginning next week for Texas. 

So, for the archives:

********************************
The US Open

Tiger Woods is playing just the way I expected. Except for one thing. I didn't expect this until late Friday, and if he made the cut, not until late Saturday. 

No more sports tonight for me, except re-runs of the US Open. I have no interest in BLM, NBA, or NHL. Too much politics.

*******************************
Distance Learning For The Archives


I think the video is self-explanatory. If not, I'll come back and sort it out later.

Whiting With Two New Sanish Permits -- September 17, 2020

Active rigs:

$40.97
9/17/202009/17/201909/17/201809/17/201709/17/2016
Active Rigs1162665632

Two new permits, #37846 - #37847, inclusive:

  • Operator: Whiting
  • Field: Sanish (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has permits for two new Maki wells in Sanish oil field, NWNW 27-154-92, about 435' NFL and 245' FWL;

Sturgis Rally -- Covid-19 -- Update -- September 17, 2020

Sturgis Rally, August 6 - 17, 2020.

Link here, be sure to set search to "yesterday."

The number of cases is irrelevant.

State -- deaths / million (ranking in nation):

  • California: 373 (26)
  • Minnesota: 352 (27)
  • North Dakota: 232 (38)
  • Nebraska: 227 (39)
  • South Dakota: 217 (40)
  • Montana: 132 (45)

New deaths:

  • California: 105
  • Minnesota: 6
  • North Dakota: 5
  • Nebraska: 3
  • South Dakota: 8
  • Montana: 1

Yup -- September 17, 2020

From Nashville, TN.

Link here:

Leaked emails between the senior adviser to Nashville's Mayor and a health department official reveal a disturbing effort to conceal extremely low coronavirus cases emanating from bars and restaurants, while the lion's share of infections occurred in nursing homes and construction workers, according to WZTV Nashville.

On June 30th, contact tracing was giving a small view of coronavirus clusters. Construction and nursing homes causing problems more than a thousand cases traced to each category, but bars and restaurants reported just 22 cases.

Leslie Waller from the health department asks “This isn’t going to be publicly released, right? Just info for Mayor’s Office?"

Correct, not for public consumption.” Writes senior advisor Benjamin Eagles. -WZTV

Four weeks later, Tennessean reporter Nate Rau asked the health department: "the figure you gave of “more than 80” does lead to a natural question: If there have been over 20,000 positive cases of COVID-19 in Davidson and only 80 or so are traced to restaurants and bars, doesn’t that mean restaurants and bars aren’t a very big problem?"

Off the net until later this afternoon.

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- September 17, 2020

US Open: Tiger Woods with first bogey, fourth hole, following three pars. Will have a long putt on fifth hole to make par. Yup, second bogey in first five holes. Will drop to a tie for 56. This will drop him to a tie for 34. Rory McIlry, two under, tied for first early in the first round. Patrick Reed: "hole-in-one" on the 7th! This won't last long: Davis Thompson, AMATEUR, is leading the field through seven holes. Cintas celebrity: young Obama look-alike as well as voice.

The market: as mentioned earlier, I won't be checking in on the market today. But, wow, what a great day for investors with a long horizon. 

Kavango Basin: featured yesterday on oilprice, posted earlier. Now this from oilandgas360, undated but very, very good. Will archive.

Bubble:  



I agree with Credit Suisse with regard to P/E and "bubbles." Apple has a P/E of 34 and CNBC folks call it over-priced.

Apple:

  • "alleged" AirPods Studio leaked
  • DuckDuckGo goes live on iOS 14; Apple will allow DuckDuckGo to be set as alternative to the default maila nd browser apps on iPhone and Pad;
  • Apple allows Microsoft Outlook to be used as default mail app on iPadOS 14;
  • "Family Setup" will be huge;  Watches that don't require iPhones; kids are going to love them; parents even more so;
    • includes "Apple Cash Family" which will allow kids to use "Apple Pay" 
  • iPhone SE -- entry level: less than $10/month; or, $229 with trade-in; or, $399 with no strings attached; very, very inexpensive, but not "cheap"; has best chip ever put into a smart phone. Period.

Going for the jugular:

  • looking at everything Apple announced on Tuesday, September, 15, 2020, suggests to me Apple is going for the jugular of its competitors;
  • credit card, music, bundling, hardware, software, medical, fitness,
  • Spotify in deep trouble; already whining; wants regulators to step in and stop Apple; suggests Spotify is in deep, deep trouble -- Spotify offers music. Apple offers the whole enchilada
  • the Apple bundle includes two terabytes of storage in the cloud: you read that correctly: two terabytes of storage
    • we've talked about this before
    • Snowflake enters the fray
    • but Apple offers the "whole" package 

Pulse oximetry: my son-in-law has been waiting for this for quite some time. He says he is ready to "break down" and buy an  Watch. I don't wear watches. If I did, I would buy an  Watch or two.

Birthday present / Christmas present: great opportunity to buy new band for my wife for birthday present, followed by new watch for Christmas. Wow. Just in time.

Headlines: from Fox News --

Minneapolis City Council: nominated for the 2020 Geico Rock award:




This is why I love Amazon: Amazon is prioritizing critical items. Baby formula is a critical item and Amazon expedites shipment for items like baby formula. On the other hand, books not so critical. When I ordered a book for Sophia, Amazon anticipated almost a 3-week delivery date. Amazing. Didn't bother me. Understood. Now, an update from Amazon. Delivery date moved up significantly. I'm impressed.

Notes From All Over -- September 17, 2020

Market. It looks like I won't be checking at CNBC today; futures are down quite a bit. Might be a disappointing day. Apparently investors were unhappy with Jay Powell's comments yesterday. Steve Liesman summed it up best: "same ol', same ol. Folks were hoping for more. The Fed is talking a good game but not doing anything."

News from Yelp! yesterday didn't help: sixty percent of businesses that closed due to state lock downs are now "permanently" closed. When this all comes to an end, historians are going to be asking a lot of questions. Governor Cuomo, moving the goalposts early-on, set the tone for state lock downs. 

I assume investors are disappointed that Nancy Pelosi -- who, by the way, looks very nice with her new hair -- is holding up the stimulus bill. Jay Powell alluded to that yesterday saying that more stimulus was needed. Congress doesn't seem to agree. 

If we get word that there will be another round of stimulus, watch the market respond nicely. 

So, unlikely I will check in on the market but one never knows

Good news: plenty of golfing, another look at In A Lonely Place, and lots of time with Sophia and first grade.

Hurricane Sally: apparently came to a relatively abrupt end. 

US Open: opportunity for opening birdie; will par first hole. So, far, it appears more than expected have birdied the first hole. Justin Thomas just birdied first hole. They're moving quickly. Six players at each first hole tee time. Jordan Speieth: second ball off the first tee, having lost his ball off the first tee. Lost balls will be a problem this tournament due to fact there is no gallery. A gallery watches the ball and can be beneficial in helping to look for the ball. So far, mostly a documentary of Tiger Woods. Jordan Spieth bogies first hole. Wow. Are you kidding? A Phil Mickelson beer commercial at 7:49 a.m. CDT. Wow, talk about poor timing.

And speaking of "wow." I love this technology. Laying/lying in bed, watching the golf tournament, ordering photos from Walgreens that will be ready for pick-up by 9:00 a.m. Time for coffee. Wow! Another "wow." I can't believe how much money I've saved on coffee with Starbucks in-cafe shutdown. When Starbucks was open, $3 - $5 daily (depending whether I bought breakfast); now, an $8.99 can of CafĂ© du Monde that will last twenty mornings? Twenty x $4 = $80 vs $8.99. 


A reader suggests: Bustelo espresso grind; 20 oz for $6 on sale.

Five Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- September 17, 2020

Active rigs:

$40.29
9/17/202009/17/201909/17/201809/17/201709/17/2016
Active Rigs1162665632

Five wells coming off the confidential list --Thursday, September 17, 2020: 127 for the month; 198 for the quarter, 644 for the year

  • 37348, drl/drl, WPX, Fast Dog 7-6HX, Eagle Nest,
  • 37347, drl/drl, WPX, Fast Dog 7-6HA, Eagle Nest,
  • 37346, drl/drl, WPX, Fast Dog 7-6HWL, Eagle Nest,
  • 36116, drl/NC, Hess, GO-Dahl-156-97-2215H-5, Dollar Joe, producing, see below; t--; cum 72K 7/20;
  • 35286, SI/A, Whiting, Berg Trust Federal 31-27-4H, Pembroke, producing, see below, t--; cum 115K 7/20;

35286: API: 33-053-08682; spud, August 5 - 6, 2019; cease drilling, August 13, 2019; logging services began on August 9, 2014; four days; lateral drilling began, 2010 hours, August 11, 2019; cease drilling at 2140 hours, August 13, 2019, almost 49 hours to drill the lateral; FracFocus: fracked 2/3/2020 - 2/15/2020; 5.5 million gallons of water (relatively small frack); water 87% by mass;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-20203118145181052086769412646214731
BAKKEN6-2020301515215107196174197041341581
BAKKEN5-20203125378254002682856971549981923
BAKKEN4-202030384833851437755798635540424413
BAKKEN3-20201517888176772123934679275917067
BAKKEN2-202010094197660761

36116, logging services began December 25, 2019; TD on December 31, 2019; six days; API: 33-105-05118: fracked 2/11/19 - 2/18/19; seven days; 6.3 million gallons of water; moderate size frack; 84.3% water by mass;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN7-202011417042776537102739355918
BAKKEN6-2020241307913094181892809427930164
BAKKEN5-2020301557815564227363246031658802
BAKKEN4-2020301906119022443413673636280456
BAKKEN3-20201519194190682341626711203036408

 

RBN Energy: a south Texas NGL alternative hub to Mont Belvieu?

The South Texas NGL market has always been a world of its own, a self-contained liquids ecosystem running from Brownsville to Markham, a distant 200 miles from the NGL epicenter at Mont Belvieu. In recent years, however, the South Texas market has been undergoing radical change, first with the emergence of the Eagle Ford basin, then with the onslaught of Permian production and, most recently, with the aptly named EPIC NGL Pipeline and new fractionation capacity in greater Corpus Christi. More supply and demand are on the way, with new pipes, exports, and the largest ethane-only petrochemical plant in the world under construction. 
And with these developments, a strategy by several large, well-financed players has emerged – to develop an NGL storage and fractionation hub competitive with Month Belvieu. Today, we begin a series to examine the South Texas NGL market and how changes there will impact flows, utilization, and pricing across North America and beyond.

First Things First: Hypocrisy At The US Open -- September 17, 2020

Later today we're going to see all sorts of social distancing and masks at the US Open.

But right now, during the practice sessions on the driving range, "no one" is wearing masks and dozens of folks milling around with no consideration for social distancing. I did see one person wearing a mask -- well below his nose. [Later: no social distancing among the gallery behind Tiger Woods teeing off at 7:08 a.m. CDT but everyone religiously wearing masks. Prior to the "official" start, during practice and warm-up, "no" masks were seen.]

And so it goes. 

Wow, there is no social distancing now, and no one wearing masks. The golfers aren't wearing  masks, the caddies aren't wearing masks, and the strap-hangers aren't wearing masks. 

More:

  • Cintas ad: no social distancing, no masks -- none whatsoever
  • workday ad: ditto

More:

  • there must be some money involved
  • golfing has begun but there is no live filming of those already off the first tee
  • all we get is an occasional "highlight" and narration
  • finally, at 6:34 a.m. CDT, some live golf; love it

****************************************
In A Lonely Place

I watched In A Lonely Place twice last night. I've watched it a couple times before. I had forgotten how really good it is/was. Bleak, bleak ending. One doesn't watch it for a "fun night out."

The commentary is very, very good. Maybe great. 

1950. Humphrey Bogart. Howard Hughes really blew it by not promoting Gloria Grahame following this movie. What a great performance. Ms Grahame died way too early. Sad. Easily out-Bacalls Lauren Bacall. I know I'm in the very, very small minority, but I've always felt Lauren Bacall was over-rated. Humphrey Bogart, not. Wow, he's good.

**********************************
Distance Learning
For The Archives

Yesterday was the busiest day yet for Sophia and me for distance learning.

About half of her first grade class is physically starting school; the other half is/are streamers. I am judging that based on the number of muted heads I see on WebEx when Sophia first signs in.

It's quite an experience. She starts at 7:30 a.m. when she signs in. Her oldest sister Arianna and her dad help her in the morning. I don't get much feedback from the morning session but based on what little I'm told or what little I see, it seems to go very well.

At 11:50 a.m. I drive over to her house to pick up Sophia for the afternoon session. She is generally finishing lunch. 

Back at the apartment:

  • ten minutes of YouTube video at her request
  • 12:30 to 2:10: finish up homework assignments on line; SeeSaw is incredible
  • she loves physical education; it takes about twenty minutes
  • the music module is in credible; her teacher really put a lot of work into this; I'm surprised how much Sophia is really, really learning about music
  • the arts section is similarly very, very good; Sophia has a good foundation in drawing and painting, so this works out very nicely;
  • when she gets caught up with her school subjects, she and I have a long, long checklist of things to review; we don't always get through the checklist, which includes:
  • flashcards, of course
  • geometry
  • reading: 100-book challenge; Bob's Books, sight words; independent reading
  • abacus: my favorite; she is coming along quite nicely
  • coins: in addition, to everything else, she has learned to count by 10s and 5s using dimes and nickels
  • At 2:10 p.m., we sign into her class on WebEx using a QR code (Sophia taught me how to use that method)
  • she puts her headphones on and then relaxes, usually coloring with her gel pens
  • at 2:12 p.m., the "alarm" goes off; she "jumps," puts her gel pens down, and starts checking in; seeing who is all on line; who's at school
  • at 2:15 p.m. her teachers show up: first the specials (art, music teachers; alternating on various days) and then her first grade teacher; for about thirty minutes the teacher puts the students through their paces; it's very superficial; the education really occurs on SeeSaw but the teacher uses the thirty minutes to assess each student;
  • the students use dry-erase boards -- the size of "clip-boards" -- to show their teacher their writing skills and their knowledge by answering questions; it's amazing how far these first graders have come in less than a two full weeks of school; they did have three weeks of a "soft-open" in which all students checked in from home each day
  • at 2:45 p.m. the students say "good-bye" to their teacher and sign off
  • from 3:00 p.m. to 3:25 p.m., Sophia has enough time to read book for her 100-book challenge
  • 3:30 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.: lots of physical activity with her after-school friends at TutorTime
  • 5:30 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. with her close friend Anika in the apartment complex
  • 7:00 p.m. back home to her own house a few blocks away

Corky waiting to pick up Sophia after TutorTime: