Sunday, August 23, 2020

"Focus On Fracking" Has Been Posted -- August 23, 2020

This week's edition of "Focus on Fracking" has been posted, the lede:

... a record low for drilling of new wells and completions of drilled wells in July, but active rigs jumped by ten this week...

July's well completions were down 80% from July one year ago, hitting a record low. New wells drilled also hit a record low, but rigs were up by ten this week.

Distillate imports? At a 60-week low. 

As usual, so much in "Focus on Fracking," but clearly one of the huge stories is the distillate story.

Saudi's Crude Oil Exports Drop To Lowest On Record -- August 23,2030

Note: this does not mean Saudi Arabia's production dropped to a record low, only that its exports dropped to the lowest on record.

Wow, talk about mixed messages. See this post. In that post I advised ignoring what Saudi says, but paying attention to what it does. Wow, now this, from oilprice: Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports dip to record low in June, 2020.

The world’s top oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, saw its crude oil exports in June drop to their lowest on record at just below 5 million barrels per day, as OPEC’s de facto leader led efforts from the OPEC+ group to withhold a record amount of crude from the market in response to the crash in demand.

According to data from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports plunged by 17.3 percent in June compared to May, to stand at 4.98 million bpd. [It would be interesting to know Saudi's total production and how much went for domestic production to run their air conditioners.]

Since March this year, Saudi crude oil exports have diverged a lot from the latest five-year range, jumping to more than 10 million bpd in April, when the Kingdom made good on its promise to flood the market with oil after the collapse of the previous OPEC+ deal. Saudi Arabia exported a record 10.237 million bpd in April 2020, up from 7.391 million bpd in March, JODI data showed earlier this year.

In May, Saudi crude oil exports plunged to 6.02 million bpd from more than 10 million bpd in the previous month, after OPEC+ reached a new deal to prop up the market and erase the glut that was building while global demand was crashing by 20 million bpd in April.

June was also the month in which Saudi Arabia voluntarily slashed its oil production by an additional 1 million bpd on top of the 2.5 million bpd it was supposed to cut.

Total Saudi oil exports, including crude oil and oil products, fell further month-on-month in June – by 1.41 million bpd to 6.07 million bpd, according to the data released by the JODI database, which collects self-reported figures from 114 countries.

Despite the easing of the OPEC+ cuts as of August 1, Saudi Arabia has signaled it would not rush to ramp up its crude oil exports significantly this month.

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The Literature Page -- The Movie Page

Wow, this is so cool.

Several years ago I was in my "Henry James" phase, reading his novels and biographies of him. That, in itself, is a long story, for another day.

But tonight, wow, TCM is showing The Heiress, starring Olivia de Havilland and Montgomery Clift. The Heiress is based on Henry James' Washington Square. I honestly do not remember if I have read Washington Square, or if I started it and didn't finish. I know I read Henry James The Ambassadors and was absolutely mesmerized by it. Wow, James was a great observer of people and their idiosyncrasies. 

Apparently this is considered Olivia de Havilland's greatest effort and won Olivia her second Academy Award for Best Actress. The first: Gone With The Wind. Those two movies: back-to-back.

Keep On Drilling y'All -- KODA Resources -- August 23, 2020

I said I would get back to this one later. It's later:

One comment: of more interest to me than the change in the number of active rigs from day-to-day, is the change in operators drilling in the Bakken. We've recently added another one: an operator who has three new oil & gas permits, as well as a SWD permit

I have no idea what KODA means. I'm sure it doesn't mean this ...

Keep On Drilling y'All 
... I like to think that it does. LOL. 

Another possibility at this link.

From "Bakken Operators":

KODA Resources Operating, LLC

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KODA Resources


Almost sounds like a SPAC
.

KODA Resources: website.

Quantum Energy Partners: website.

And this link from Hart Energy, October 30, 2008:

EnergyQuest Resources LP has been formed with cash and oil properties from Wayne Greenwalt, Jerry Crews and Jory Pacht and $25 million in cash from Quantum Energy Partners.
Original Post

KODA has two permits (original post):

  • 36500, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2917-1BH, Fertile Valley, 
  • 36501, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 2932-2TH, Fertile Valley, 
According to LinkedIn:
  • Osman Apaydin: founder, president, and CEO; June, 2018 - present
    • prior: 12 years 6 months with EOG
    • prior: Schlumberger, 1998 - 2005
    • BS, Petroleum Engineering, Istanbul Technical University
    • MSc, Petroleum Engineering, Stanford University
    • PhD, Petroleum Engineering, Colorado School of Mines
  • Jason McLaren, Landman at KODA Resources;

Since then, three new oil & gas permits and a permit for a salt water disposal well.

Keep On Drilling y'All -- August 23, 2020

I'll complete this post later. I've run out of time.

One comment: of more interest to me than the change in the number of active rigs from day-to-day, is the change in operators drilling in the Bakken. We've recently added another one: an operator who has three new oil & gas permits, as well as a SWD permit

We'll get back to that later.

But before I go:

PGA FedEx Cup Standings -- Top 70 advance. Link here. Of interest:

  • Phil Mickelson: #75
  • Tiger Woods: #57
  • Tony Finau: #29
  • Rory McIlroy: #12
  • Bryson DeChambeau: #7
  • Justice Thomas: #2
  • Dustin Johnson: #1

Subject to change after today's tournament. 

When you look at Dustin Johnson's wins since the 2007 - 2008 season, it is clear that the baton has passed from Tiger Woods to Dustin Johnson. 

Dustin is 36 years old. Probably at his peak.

Tiger is 44 years old, clearly on the down slope. 

Phil, at 50, is significantly older. 

Bryson DeChambeau at age 26 years old seems a lot older; he has several years to challenge Dustin Johnson. 

Look at the "names" who did not make the FedEx Cup championship "70":

  • Phil Mickelson: #75
  • Justin Rose: #91
  • Tommy Fleetwood: #92
  • Rickie Fowler: #94
  • Brooks Koepka: #104
  • Zach Johnson: #105
  • Jordan Spieth: #107
  • Sergio Garcia: #135

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Trump Boat Run
Bismarck, ND
August 22, 2020

Link here.

A Random Note From Maine -- Nothing About The Bakken -- August 23, 2020

I've had as many posts on "lobster" / "lobsters" as almost any other subject (other than the Bakken and the market, of course) on the blog. I've been fascinated with the "lobster story" ever since our daughter / son-in-law lived in Boston for four years. And, of course, my love affair with Boston goes back a lot farther, all the way back to 1972, or thereabouts. Back on July 1, 2018, this post:

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The Lobster Page

This is a pretty cool story. Forget all the stuff about the tariffs. Look at the other stuff regarding lobster.

I started "following" the lobster story about ten years ago when we were spending a lot of time in Boston for several years. The lobster industry had been dying but researchers discovered the cause -- related to "fishing practices," and nothing to do with the environment. Once changes were made, the US lobster industry came back very strongly. Any doubts? Have you had any trouble finding lobster in your local supermarket? Down here in Texas, about as far away from Maine as one can get, there seems to be a glut of lobster in our supermarkets.

Anyway, from The WSJ:
Maine harvests more lobster than any other U.S. state or Canadian province. Last year it landed nearly 111 million pounds—its fourth-largest annual haul—which it sold for $450 million. The lobster industry accounts for 2% of Maine’s economy. 
And China represents a hungry new market. The post-molt lobsters Maine harvests from July through November have softer shells than Canadian lobsters, so they’re lower quality. But they also sell for several dollars less a pound. In the price-sensitive Chinese market, that has given the U.S. industry a competitive advantage over its Canadian counterparts. In 2017 the U.S. exported more than $137 million in lobsters to China, up from $52 million in 2015. 

I searched for that note after reading a Fox Business News story today (https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/europe-lifts-tariffs-on-us-lobsters).

The Trump administration and European Union agreed Friday, August 21, 2020, to a limited tariff rollback, providing relief to American lobster exports and to a range of European items, and providing a boost to strained U.S.-EU trade relations. 
The EU will drop tariffs on U.S. live and frozen lobsters. 
The American lobster industry has found itself struggling because the EU reached a free-trade agreement with Canada that reduced lobster tariffs. 
With no comparable agreement with the U.S., European imports of Canadian lobsters were soaring, while American lobster exports plunged. In June, the Trump administration created a payment program to aid the lobster industry, which had also been damaged when China retaliated to U.S. tariffs with tariffs on items including U.S. lobster. 
Lobster exports have become something of a political hot-button issue because it is an iconic industry in Maine, one of the states the president is targeting in his re-election campaign.

I get such a kick out of this. Remember when there was a shortage of US lobsters and it was blamed on "global warming"? That turned out to be not true and with a bit of tweaking in lobster harvesting, the crustacean has come back incredibly strong. And no, nothing to do with global warming. 

Fill Your Gas Tanks -- Today Or Monday -- August 23, 2020

Updates

August 28, 2020: from the standpoint of energy, this hurricane was a nothing-burger. Lake Charles was hit hard but this hurricane was certainly over-hyped by the Weather Channel.

Original Post

 It's coming.



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Checking In: What Condition Is My Condition In?

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The History Page

Stonehenge: the narrower focus of [this book] is southern Britain, roughly south of a line from the Wash to the Bristol Channel, and the Neolitic "Windmill Hill" culture and its successors down to the Bronze Age.

Stonehenge, John North, c. 1996.

An "a-ha" moment. In discussing the tombs from Neolithic/early Bronze Age periods in southern Britain the author noted that 

"... several tombs have been found surrounded by thousands of shards of pots that had originally been placed on the tomb, a witness to some or other ritual of offerings continuing long after the primary interment. Similar collections of shards deposited over very long periods of time are found at many Neolithic sites throughout Europe."

Most likely, descendants of the dead, even generations later were bringing pots of water and/or food to help the dead in their after-life journey. Interestingly -- the "a-ha" moment for me: modern men and women have carried on that tradition by bringing flowers (and sometimes other mementos) to gravesites long after the funeral. Most likely intact pots were brought to the tombs by Neolithic folks and only subsequently ended up broken.

Word for the day: dolmen. [Later: a reader responds.]

The Sports Page -- August 23, 2020

Updates

Later, 2:59 p.m. CDT: not yet halfway through the last round, Dustin Johnson is running away from the field, and has set a record: five eagles in a single tournament.

Later, 2:19 p.m. CDT: for me, the race is over. Obviously NBC is trying to recoup all the money it lost during the pandemic but I've never seen so much advertising. I'm not sure if I'm watching a race or watching an infomercial. Be that as it may, I've quit watching the race. I'll catch the highlights later. I'm sticking to golf. 

Later, 1:19 p.m. CDT: it's now been an hour and twenty minutes since NBC coverage of the Indy 500 began. Am I missing something? How long is this going to take? Give me a break. Now, it's the song. Will we see any kneeling? I don't know. I'm back to the golf tournament. I guess we have now moved to CBS. What a pain keeping up with the network coverage changes.

Original Post

This is pretty cool. Yesterday I wrote:

PGA and the downfall of Tiger Woods

  • observations:
    • does not have the stamina
    • if he has a "good" first two rounds, he runs out of steam the third day
    • quickly loses the desire
    • once he "falls behind," even if it's after the first hole, he psychologically gives up

So, how do those observations play out in the fourth and final round? Tiger Woods has now completed his 17th hole; by the time I finish this note, he will have completed the fourth round.

My observations are confirmed.

At this level of play, PGA golf is all "mental," as they say.

Tiger Woods slept on this overnight: if he did not play his best on the fourth day, it was very possible he would lose to his partner, Rory McIlroy, and worse, he (Tiger Woods) might even finish dead last. So, he went out there with mental attitude to blow it away.

And he did. In the front nine, Tiger did it: six of the nine holes, all birdies. One bogie, so -5 for the front nine. Very, very impressive. And all "mental."

But then, does he have the stamina to do the same on the back nine? Nope. Although no bogies in the back nine -- which truly surprised me -- but suggests his "mental" game stuck with him -- he did not have the physical stamina necessary to get even one birdie. Nine "pars" on the back nine. 

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LGPA

Sophia Popov: the first two rounds were very, very good, keeping her in the mix and on the leaderboard, but her last two rounds were stellar. Good for her. And great first name. LOL. She has a great story to tell. She was ranked 304th coming into this tournament and no special status. This certainly beats watching the #BLM championship playoffs. To my wife:

Five years ago Germany's Sophia Popov came close to dying due to health reasons, may have played golf intermittently, almost decided to quit playing altogether last year. In her entire professional golf career she had earned about $100,000 which would not pay for travel expenses, living expenses, or training. Today she won the huge LPGA tournament at Royal Troon, Scotland, earning $700,000 or thereabouts. Quite a story.

She makes her home in Arizona now. The Scottish weather was temperate today but it was so cold for her, she had to wear mittens throughout the last day of the tournament (taking them off when striking the ball).

First German woman to have won a major LPGA tournament.

First two rounds she played well enough to stay in the mix, on the leaderboard, but really, really played well the last two days. She obviously "wanted" to win this one.

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Indy 500 -- Later Today

Wow, the LGPA tournament in Scotland finished just in time (Royal Troon). 

For having "no" live sports due to the pandemic, it's amazing how crowded things have become all of a sudden. A most important PGA championship will be covered by the NBC Golf channel and the Indy 500 will be shown on NBC. And the LPGA tournament in Scotland finished just in time for NBC to move to the Indy 500 as scheduled. Had the Royal Troon championship gone into "overtime" one wonders what NBC would have done. 

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Perfect "Munchie"


A pickle.

New: The Main Themes For The Current Year -- Now Linked At The Sidebar At The Top -- August 23, 2020

Link here

There is currently a meme in the business world: for the US economy to get back on track, NYC has to get back to business. The argument is that NYC is the economic / financial engine for the US. 

That is clearly in question now.

I do believe the following "memes' perpetuated by the likes of CNBC need to be questioned:

  • the US economy is in deep trouble (I don't think so);
  • NYC is the economic engine for the US (I think the US economic engine is more Balkanized: NYC, Boston, Austin, Seattle, Chicago, etc)

NYC may no longer meet the criteria of a world-class city (see this very, very old Forbes article).

Today, from ZeroHedge, the most recent article on the challenges NYC is facing. My hunch: Governor Cuomo is looking on with horror what Mayor De Blasio is doing to the city. This is from today, not a collection of stories from the past year, but just this morning:

By the way, regardless of what Joe Biden says, what is now happening in NYC guarantees that there will be no new national lock down, no matter how much Joe wants one.

From the linked ZeroHedge article:

New York property owners are begging the city's largest businesses to return to work.

Names like Goldman Sachs and BlackRock have been on the speed dials of New York landlords, who are reportedly reaching out to the businesses begging them to get back to work and, in turn, save the city's economy. The landlords have formed a "loose coalition" according to a new report by Bloomberg.

The group includes RXR Realty’s Scott Rechler, Rudin Management’s William Rudin and Marc Holliday of SL Green Realty. These landlords, facing a catastrophic collapse in the price of commercial real estate, argue that it's safe to return to work and that most NYC businesses simply can't survive a shutdown much longer. Some are even calling it the "patriotic" thing to do.

So far, the reception hasn't been overwhelming. And with every day that passes, it becomes a tougher sell. As businesses close up, there becomes less reason to return to work. As a result, landlords could see a major demand drought and prices could crater.

Observations On Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- August 23, 2020

Most interesting:

  • KODA Resources SWD will report;

On a tear:

  • MRO -- perhaps the most exciting driller in the Bakken right now

Not surprising:

  • the most exciting field right now? Reunion Bay. Shouldn't be surprising, who "owns" it? MRO.

Big family names back in the news, including:

Again, huge wells being reported, but not as big as in some past weeks.

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Radiocarbon Dating

From Appendix 1, Stonehenge: A New Interpretation of Prehistoric Man and the Cosmos, John North, c. 1996.
Radiocarbon dates are always qualified with an indication of their statistical accuracy. For example, a radiocarbon date of 2180 + 105 bc is usually understood as implying that there is a 68.3 percent chance that the date of the object lies between 2285 and 2075 bc

This is a statistical uncertainty known as one standard deviation. Other ranges of uncertainty are sometimes used, but then they are stated explicitly. A growing tendency is to opt for two standard deviations, or 95.4 percent confidence.

The reason for the unfamiliar lower case of the letters 'bc' is that the first calibrations of the rate of [carbon 14] decay, made in the 1950s and 1960s, were found to be in error. [It is amazing that the atomic bomb and the hydrogen bomb worked the first time as predicted despite all these inaccuracies.]

This [inaccuracy] was suspected, for example, from reasonably well-dated Egyptian materials. 

Rather than attempt to revise at regular intervals all old dating in calendar terms, a distinction is made between calendar dates (quoted as BC) and radiocarbon dates produced in the old way (bc), and the precise correlation of the two is under constant review.

The very long-lived tree, the Californian Bristlecone Pine, has been of greatest value in this revision

In all strictness it may occasionally be necessary to split a range of probably dates into two ranges, separated by an interval where the true date is unlikely to have fallen. Many writers quote calendar dates 'before the present' (BP), by which they usually mean 'before 1950.0'. 

How long this odd custom will continue is a matter of great uncertainty. [😏]

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- August 23, 2020

The wells:

  • 35928, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 11-17H, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2020765838299
4-20201333445902
3-2020949522395
  • 33947, conf, MRO, Prior USA42-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, 
  • 90476, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 29 SWD 1,
  • 36774, conf, Whiting, Iverson 11-14-2H, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20201473711607
5-20201958915138
4-2020170966841
3-202099410
  • 33946, conf, MRO, Ranum USA 44-8TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, 
  • 36349, conf, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-4, Alkali Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20202565645081
5-20201957129570
4-20202238634019
3-20202623533043
2-202056413456
  • 36315, conf, BR, State Dodge 1D MBH, Dimmick Lake, 
  • 35927, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 12-17H1, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-202001095
5-20201282931281
4-20201569232814
3-20201820529691
2-20209941949
  • 33945, conf, MRO, Walcel USA 42-8H, Reunion Bay, 
  • 28088, conf, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-4, Cherry Creek, 
  • 28152, conf, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-5, Cherry Creek, 
  • 35559, conf, Oasis, Bobby 5502 14-2 6B, Squires,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2020134614344
5-2020630
3-202073004892
2-202054824002
  • 35558, conf, Oasis, Bobby 5502 14-2 7B, Squires,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2020121335573
5-202088995689
3-202094346702
2-202043783082
  • 36537, conf, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23D, Capa, 
  • 35998, conf, Hess, AN-Mogen Trust-153-94-2932H-9, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20201830333032
5-20202296913486
4-20202186020071
3-20202484717165
2-2020203272266
  • 35596, conf, Enerplus, Stratus 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest
  • 36686, conf, Whiting, Iverson 41-14-2HU, Sanish

    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN6-202030191561908311551173461726947
    BAKKEN5-202031223202218615317191901910356
    BAKKEN4-202030240242422320405230631113011903
    BAKKEN3-20203124751245552371625430025399
    BAKKEN2-2020512550000

  • 36538, drl/NC, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23H, Capa, 
  • 35997, drl/A, Hess, AN-Mogen Trust-LE-153-94-2932H-1, Antelope,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SANISH6-2020301997019986866744225410913052
SANISH5-202031287572871610119433091713726097
SANISH4-20203020436204958262318471957712208
SANISH3-20203124697247039203486622963118940
SANISH2-202079884967537137568808929428
  • 33799, SI/IA, CLR, Bohmbach Federal 13-26H1, Elm Tree,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20202615033151071931525799240041709
BAKKEN3-20202517858175432438129049242494701
BAKKEN2-2020236736738655055
  • 33798, SI/IA, CLR, Bohmbach Federal 12-26H, Elm Tree,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20202620377205811363735435329702347
BAKKEN3-20202530060295292232348563405387859
BAKKEN2-2020314214214132940294
  • 36539, drl/NC, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23C, Capa,

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- August 23, 2020

Note: no wells coming off the confidential list on August 30 and 31. There was no "29" or "30" in February, 2020, six months ago. There was a February 29th, I believe, but I've long forgotten.

Monday, August 31, 2020:

  • None.

Sunday, August 30, 2020:

  • None.

Saturday, August 29, 2020:

  • 35928, conf,  CLR, Jamestown Federal 11-17H,
  • 33947, conf, MRO, Prior USA42-8TFH-2B,
  • 90476, conf, KODA Resources, Stout 29 SWD 1,

Friday, August 28, 2020:

  • 36774, conf,  Whiting, Iverson 11-14-2H,
  • 33946, conf, MRO, Ranum USA 44-8TFH-2B,

Thursday, August 27, 2020:

  • None.

Wednesday August 26, 2020:

  • 36349, conf,  Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-4,
  • 36315, conf,  BR, State Dodge 1D MBH,
  • 35927, conf, CLR, Jamestown Federal 12-17H1,
  • 33945, conf,  MRO, Walcel USA 42-8H,
  • 28088, conf, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-4,

Tuesday, August 25, 2020:

  • 28152, conf, Hess, BW-Spring Creek-149-99-1201H-5,
  • 35559, conf,  Oasis, Bobby 5502 14-2 6B,
  • 35558, conf, Oasis,  Bobby 5502 14-2 7B,

Monday, August 24, 2020: 69 for the month; 140 for the quarter, 586 for the year:

  • 36537, conf, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23D,
  • 35998, conf,  Hess, AN-Mogen Trust-153-94-2932H-9,
  • 35596, conf, Enerplus, Stratus 149-94-33C-28H-TF,

Sunday, August 23, 2020: 66 for the month; 137 for the quarter, 583 for the year:

  • 36686, conf,  Whiting, Iverson 41-14-2HU,
  • 36538, conf, XTO, Marilyn 21X-23H,
  • 35997, conf,  Hess, AN-Mogen Trust-LE-153-94-2932H-1,
  • 33799, conf, CLR, Bohmbach Federal 13-26H1,
  • 33798, conf, CLR, Bohmbach Federal 12-26H,

Saturday, August 22, 2020: 61 for the month; 132 for the quarter, 578 for the year:

36539, conf, XTO, Marily 21X-23C,