Monday, August 17, 2020

Amazon Logistics -- Unlocking Value -- August 17, 2020

Over at the sidebar at the right, I have a link to something called "the next big thing."

This really doesn't qualify for "the next big thing," but it comes close, so I will include it. 

Companies often find ways to "unlock" the value of their companies (see GM today, for example). 

The tea leaves suggest that if push comes to shove, if the government decides to "break up Amazon" the first thing that will happen is that Amazon will spin off Amazon Logistics.

Amazon Logistics will absolutely crush the US Postal Service. In fact, on second thought, maybe the US government will think twice about breaking up Amazon. LOL. Whatever. 

But seriously, I think it's just a matter of time before Amazon Logistics is spun off. Maybe when drone-delivery becomes the norm. 

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The Contemporary Music Page

It's been a long time since I've posted a music video.

#2, "Ride", in this anthology came to mind whie thinking about the Sturgis Rally. 


Top Ten Songs, Lana Del Rey

But the real reason that got me to thinking about Lana Del Rey: earlier today while driving over to see Sophia, listening to some DFW rock station, the DJ mentioned that Bruce Springsteen recently said Lana Del Rey is currently one of the best songwriters out there right now. Wow. Here's one source.

Wow, What A Great Country! -- August 17, 2020

I mentioned a week or so ago that the "blogger app" folks had changed their "app" significantly and  that "they" had changed some of the tasks I use regularly and tasks that were used to save time. Some of the changes caused me so much trouble I was almost beginning to ask whether it was worth blogging or at least blogging in the manner to which I had become accustomed -- and then, all of a sudden, tonight, I noticed that the last such major irritant had been "fixed. "

I do believe all the major irritants have been corrected or fixed or changed.

There's only one or two minor irritants but I doubt "blogger" plans to change those. I will get used to them; only minor irritants.

Wow, what a great country -- improving "blogger." Although, having said that, I wish they would have left well enough alone. 

See  you all in the morning. Good luck to all. One more check: future deteriorated. Now "flat" or slightly negative. Oh, well. 

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Tusk

Tusk, Fleetwood Mac

In addition to everything else, look at that size of that band near the end of the video. Look how back the marching band trails.

And With This, I'm Off The Net For The Evening -- August 17, 2020

 

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About That Post Office Problem

From a reader:
 
 
Zip code 55406 -- Hennepin County -- Minneapolis, MN -- Senator Amy Klobuchar, US Representative Ill-Hand Omar.




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On A More Positive Note

Futures
: all major indices in the green. Maybe the S&P 500 will actually close at a new all-time record tomorrow.

A Closer Look At A Recently Completed MRO DUC -- August 17, 2020

Note the small frack. This is Mandaree oil field; very amenable to re-fracks; new fracks.

3rd generation monster wells are tracked here.

The well:

  • 35636, SI/A, WPX, St Anthony 9-16HB, Mandaree, API: 33-025-03606, t--; cum 225K 6/20; a 47K month; fracked 11/4/2020 - 11/14/2020; 5 million gallons of water (a small frack); 83% water by mass;
From the file report:
  • target: the middle Bakken; ~ 17' below the top of the middle Bakken;
  • approximately 6 mileseast of Mandaree
  • the curve was begun on August 14, 2019, and completed on August 15, 2019;
  • the middle Bakken was entered at a true VD of 10,803'
  • drilling the lateral began on August 16, 2019; completed on August 19, 2019 (less than three days);
  • successfully "passed" the Tekakwitha 9-24H (#17024), and Birdsbill 14-16H (#18520);
Production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20202517586176061130022248200270
BAKKEN5-20203131281312891779044087403440
BAKKEN4-20203033807337712017835473314720
BAKKEN3-20202928678286991943423286198796
BAKKEN2-20202929868298691918724253151075797
BAKKEN1-20203146910469502547244049388720
BAKKEN12-20192037040368962487922970190070
BAKKEN11-20190000000

MRO Reports A Monster DUC; MRO With Two New Permits -- August 17, 2020

 Active rigs:

$42.82
8/17/202008/17/201908/17/201808/17/201708/17/2016
Active Rigs1261605332

Two new permits, #37790 - #37791, inclusive:

  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments: 
    • MRO has permits for a Kulland USA / Lindley USA pad in lot 1 section 4-150-93, about 200' FNL and 1098' FEL

Two permits canceled:

  • MRO: Ida USA and Monson USA, both in McKenzie County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) completed:

  • 35636, SI/A, WPX, St Anthony 9-16HB, Mandaree, API: 33-025-03606, t--; cum 225K 6/20; a 47K month;
  • 36636, drl/A, WPX, Nighthawk 6-34HC, Mandaree, API: 33-025-03852, no production data;

Solar Energy After The Sun Goes Down? Not So Much And Other Factoids -- California Governor Gavin Newsom -- August 17, 2020

From Breitbart, August 17, 2020 (https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2020/08/17/california-gov-gavin-newsom-time-to-sober-up-about-green-renewable-energy-flaws/):
California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday, August 17, 2020,  that the state had to “sober up” about the fact that renewable energy sources had failed to provide enough power for the state at peak demand, and needed “backup” and “insurance” from other sources.

Newsom addressed journalists and the public in the midst of ongoing electricity blackouts that began on Friday, as hundreds of thousands of Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) customers in northern and central California lost power.

There is currently high demand for electricity across the state, as the entire West Coast has been hit by a heat wave and record-breaking temperatures.

One reason the state lacked power, officials admitted, was its over-reliance on “renewables” — i.e. wind and solar power.

There was not enough wind to keep turbines going, Newsom said, and cloud cover and nightfall restricted solar power. [Brilliant.]

“While we’ve had some peak gust winds,” he explained, “wind gust events across the state have been relatively mild.”

That was good for fighting fires, he said, but bad for the “renewable portfolio” in the state’s energy infrastructure. In addition, high demand for electricity in the evening hours, coupled with less input from solar plants, created strain. [Wildfires or electricity.]

On Friday, Newsom said, the state had fallen about 1,000 megawatts short; on Saturday, it fell 450 megawatts short. Sunday saw only “modest or minor” interruptions. But on Monday, he said, the state would be 4,400 megawatts short of “where we believe we need to be.”

“This next few days, we are anticipating being challenged,” Newsom said, as the heat wave was predicted to last through Wednesday.

“We failed to predict and plan these shortages,” Newsom admitted boldly, “and that’s simply unacceptable.” He said he took responsibility for the crisis, and for addressing it immediately, so that “we never come back into this position again.”

Much more at the link.

ISO California. Tomorrow:


The graphic:
  • oval C: anticipated peak demand tomorrow -- 50,485 MW
  • oval B: historical peak -- 50,270 MW
  • oval A: available capacity today which is probably similar for tomorrow -- 50,393

See also this post from August 15, 2020.

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When It Rains, It Pours

More from Breitbart on Governor Newsom and the rolling blackouts (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/08/17/nolte-blackouts-force-newsom-to-admit-green-energy-falls-short/).
Blackouts in the failing state of Democrat-run California have forced Governor Gavin Newsom to admit green every is falling short.

“Newsom says the transition away from fossil fuels has left California with a gap in the reliability of its energy system. He says the state must examine its reliance on solar power and how that fits into its broader energy portfolio,” reports the San Francisco Chronicle’s Alexei Koseff.

“Today we are anticipating substantially greater need for energy,” Newsom said at a Monday press conference. Per Koseff, he added that this greater need is “about 4,400 megawatts short of what the state needs. That’s a ten times greater shortfall than Saturday. ” “We failed to predict and plan these shortages and that’s simply unacceptable,” Newsom somehow said without bursting into flames.

Give me a break.

No one “failed to predict” anything.

California has had decades to prepare for this. No one failed to predict it. They only failed to prepare for it.

The writing has been on the wall since 2001 when the state was hit with a series of massive blackouts and soaring electricity prices. The result was the successful recall of then-Democrat Governor Gray Davis in late 2003. He was replaced by the equally incompetent Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Over the weekend, the former-Golden State was hit with its second day of rolling blackouts. As my colleague Joel Pollak reported at the time, “the state’s power grid struggled to deal with a heat wave that caused a surge in consumer demand.”

The blackout hit 220,000 homes in the North Bay area.

While there’s nothing funny about people losing power during a heat wave, it is still hard not to laugh at a state that is so scientifically backwards. The luddites were thwarted by a lack of wind and clouds.

Yes, wind and clouds.

Officials blamed the “unexpected loss of a 470-megawatt power plant Saturday evening, as well as the loss of nearly 1,000 megawatts of wind power,” the San Jose Mercury News reported. In addition, cloud cover over the desert meant solar energy was in short supply. What are we, savages?

What is this, the third world?

No one has to live like this in the 21st century.

All you need to do is build more power and nuclear plants and the problem is solved.

Yes, it really is that easy.
Much more at the link.

More On That Natural Gas Storage Record -- August17, 2020

Updates

August 18, 2020: See comments. I'm still curious what might explain the record increase in US natural gas storage -- broke through the five-year maximum. See graph below. Some suggest it may be due to decreased usage due to warmer temps in/along the mid-Atlantic states this past winter. That may be be an important contributor but the EIA graph would not have predicted that back in the winter of 2019 - 2020. A google search (US natural gas storage at all-time record) suggests the major reason for the US natural gas underground storage breaking through the five-year maximum was due to less LNG exports.


Good news: it appears exports are forecast to rise again, resulting in a jump in natural gas prices. 


Original Post

I find this incredible and for the most part, being reported nowhere in the mainstream media and I doubt most Americans are even aware of this. 

From  the most recent issue of Focus on Fracking (edited):

The natural gas storage report from the EIA for the week ending August 7th indicated that the quantity of natural gas held in underground storage in the US

  • rose by 58 billion cubic feet to 3,332 billion cubic feet by the end of the week:
  • which left our gas supplies 608 billion cubic feet, or 22.3% greater than the storage same time one year ago; and,
  • 15.3% above the five-year average for the same week.

The 58 billion cubic feet that were added to US natural gas storage this week:

  • was more than the average 51 billion cubic feet increase that was forecast by analysts polled by S&P Global Platts;
  • more than the 51 billion cubic feet addition of natural gas to storage during the corresponding week of 2019; and,
  • it was well above the average of 44 billion cubic feet of natural gas that has been added to natural gas storage during the same week over the past 5 years.

From the EIA (a dynamic link):

Working gas in storage was 3,332 Bcf as of Friday, August 7, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 58 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 608 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 443 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,889 Bcf. At 3,332 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

The Permian Running A Poor Third; Huge Gas In Eagle Ford; Bakken Continues To Look Good -- The August, 2020, Dashboards

"WTI Beatdown" at this link, at the sidebar at the right. 

Historical monthly oil production statistics: link here. Have we bottomed?

See also, Director's Cut, June, 2020, data

EIA dashboards:

Bakken:

Eagle Ford:

 
Permian
:

Market Watch -- Mid-Day -- August 17, 2020

The market, buzz:

  • greedy?
  • unglued from reality?
  • my take: millennials' FOMO

Homebuilders: at all-time highs as sentiment jumps to record level

Natural gas: hitting high for the year earlier on, but has pulled back and is now negative. 

S&P 500: trading all all-time high but whether it holds is questionable. I think this is the fourth day that we've come close to closing at a new high but failing. NASDAQ up huge despite AAPL being negative. AAPL is off it's morning lows.

  • IMUX is down 4%.
  • UNP remains on a tear; hitting all-time new highs; up over 1%; up another $2.50 dollars/share.
  • SRE drops just below $130; down about 1.6%;
  • GM surges; up over 6%; apparently talk of a reorganization; splitting the company; 

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Follow-Up: Buffett Sells Airlines


Airline

Shr Price: 3/31/2020

Dollars: 3/31/2020

Shares

Shr Price: August 17, 2020

Total: August 17, 2020


DAL

28.53

675,000,000

23,659,306

28.02

662,933,754


UAL

31.55

675,000,000

21,394,612

34.40

735,974,643


AAL

12.19

675,000,000

55,373,257

12.62

698,810,500


SWA (LUV)

35.61

675,000,000

18,955,350

33.81

640,880,371




2,700,000,000



2,738,599,268




 



 


AAPL

254.29

2,700,000,000

10,617,799

458.43

4,867,517,401














2,128,918,133







 














2,738,599,268







77.74%








March 24, 2020


224


10,617,799


2,378,386,881

August 17, 2020


383.68


10,617,799


4,073,836,958







1,695,450,077

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Birthday Gift 

Beautiful, beautiful quilt.

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Word of the Day

Vol-au-vent. First seen today while reading Out of Africa.

My wife makes incredible petit vol-au-vent apƩritifs. Seriously.

Little Missouri National Grassland -- Draft Decision -- US Forest Service -- August 17, 2020

From The Bismarck Tribune:

The U.S. Forest Service has released a draft decision regarding updates to oil and gas leasing for the Little Missouri National Grassland and is accepting any public objections for 45 days.

About 893,000 acres of the grassland are available for oil and gas leasing. The recommended changes would provide access to an additional 216,000 acres, while providing protections for sage grouse, rare plants and fossils, according to the Forest Service's Dakota Prairie Grasslands office.

The agency earlier took public comment on a draft supplemental environmental impact statement. It announced the final EIS and draft decision on Monday. They can be found at https://www.fs.usda.gov/project/?project=40652.

Objections can be sent electronically to comments-northern-dakota-prairie@fs.fed.us or mailed/hand-delivered to the Dakota Prairie Grasslands, 2000 Miriam Circle, Bismarck, ND 58501.

Much more at the link. 

For more on North Dakota sage grouse, see this link

Little Missouri National Grassland at this link.

Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- August 17, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Fast and furious:

Crude oil, fast and furious: 

 
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Canada

Suncor: production and refining hemmed in -- Fitzsimmons -- SeekingAlpha;
  • like most energy companies, Suncor has been heavily affected by the demand destruction caused by Covid-19.
  • but the truth is, Suncor's business had been in decline well before the pandemic hit and throughout most of 2019.
  • in fact, the stock is now trading at roughly the same level it was 15 years ago and the dividend was cut by 55%.
  • with production and refining both hemmed in, it's hard to find a positive catalyst for the stock.

Well, This Is Interesting -- August 17, 2020

First: natural gas prices soar as heat wave hits large parts of US. Surges? In the eye of the beholder. 

Second: other than at the EIA, I don't think I saw this reported in the mainstream media -- from the EIA (a dynamic link):

Working gas in storage was 3,332 Bcf as of Friday, August 7, 2020, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 58 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 608 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 443 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,889 Bcf. At 3,332 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

ISO New England.     ISONY.      ISO California.   

California today:

Eight Wells Coming Off The Confidential List -- August 17, 2020

Chaparral Energy: files for bankruptcy. Assets and liabilities between $500 million and $1 billion.

OPEC basket, link here: $44.62.

OPEC and its allies have achieved the oil-market equivalent of a high-wire act: increasing supply even as demand remains depleted, without crashing prices.

Whether they can successfully continue the balancing act is unclear.

The market remains too fragile to risk anything more. The 23-nation alliance plans to keep the bulk of its halted output -- about 7.7 million barrels a day, and possibly more -- off-line for the rest of the year.

Saudi Arabia even said that most of the supply returned in August will b consumed domestically, used to satisfy the kingdom’s summer electricity needs rather than shipped to overseas customers.

The producers can ill-afford a relapse. Despite the rebound, oil prices are still barely half the level many OPEC nations need to cover government spending. The financial squeeze has left several contending with massive deficits, popular unrest and currency devaluations.

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Bakken

Active rigs:

$41.96↓8/17/202008/17/201908/17/201808/17/201708/17/2016
Active Rigs1261605332

Eight wells coming off the confidential list --

Monday, August 17, 2020: 54 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 571 for the year:

  • 37075, drl/NC, BR, Cleofill 1C, Croff,
  • 36351, drl/A,  Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-6, Alkali Creek, t--; cum 76K 3.3 months; a 24k month;
  • 36158, drl/A,  fHess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-2, Dollar Joe, t--; cum 62K 3 months; a 22K month;
  • 36109, drl/NC, BR, Gladstone Gap 44-23TFH-ULW, Sand Creek,

Sunday, August 16, 2020: 50 for the month; 121 for the quarter, 567 for the year:

  • 37074, drl/NC, BR, Cleofill 1B, Croff,

Saturday, August 15, 2020: 49 for the month; 120 for the quarter, 566 for the year:

  • 37073, drl/NC, BR, Cleofill 1A, Croff,
  • 36110, drl/NC, BR, Gladstone Gap 34-23MBH-ULW, Sand Creek,
  • 33929, SI/IA, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 13-25H2, Elm Tree, t--; cum 23K two months;

RBN Energy: how will US LNG producers navigate global market uncertainty?  Archived.

The global LNG market upheaval has wreaked havoc on U.S. LNG export demand this summer, which, in turn, has complicated operations at domestic export facilities. Gone are the days when U.S. LNG exports would move predictably, increasing with each new liquefaction train coming online and then mostly staying at or near capacity. 
Rather, as international LNG prices collapsed, U.S. LNG operators for the first time have had to contend with a relentless stream of cancelled cargoes and low facility utilization rates. More recently, cargo cancellations are showing signs of easing somewhat, as international price spreads are improving for fall and winter. But these recent market disruptions provide a window into the ways in which operational constraints and flexibilities will factor into LNG producers’ and offtakers’ decisions — and affect feedgas flows and capacity utilization — in a weak global market. Today, we consider some of the nuances of liquefaction operations.