Saturday, August 15, 2020

Rolling California "Power Outages" -- August 15, 2020

Are "power outages" the same as "blackouts." Perhaps the latter has become politically unacceptable. I don't know.

Record-breaking heat means more rolling power outages.  

  • PG&E says it expects to initiate rolling power outages for the second straight night, as the California Independent System Operator again issued an emergency order for utilities to cut down on power to prevent a heat wave from overwhelming the system. 
  • PG&E expects tonight's outages will affect 220K customers in portions of the Central Coast and Central Valley, including Monterey, Santa Cruz and San Joaquin counties. 
  • PG&E, Southern California Edison and San Diego Gas and Electric last night turned off power to more than 410K homes and businesses for about an hour at a time. The moves come as temperatures around the state hit triple digits in many areas, and air conditioning use soared.
  • California's power grid is under its greatest stress during the late afternoon and early evening as power usage peaks and solar energy production begins to decline, cutting the capacity during available during a supply crunch.

And it's only beginning. 

From Bloomberg (does this first sentence make sense to anyone? Written by a robot? In fact, much of teh story is gibberish):

As numerous as 2 thousand Californians were actually dived right into night throughout 4 hrs advanced Friday in the very first rolling power outages to attack the condition considering that the 2001 electricity dilemma. (sic)
And that was actually merely Day One. 
An unrelenting warm front is actually assumed to bury California via the center of upcoming full week, delivering temperature levels skyrocketing past times 110 levels Fahrenheit in some components. (sic)
Folks blasting their cooling system and also followers to keep one’s cool are actually overworking the location’s energy body and also increasing the presence of a regular of Friday’s mostly surprise and also unexpected failures. 
It began at around 6: 30 p.m. true time (sic) on Friday, when California’s framework driver calculated via a sophisticated estimate that the condition’s energy reservoirs had actually dropped listed below an important limit and also phoned a Stage 3 framework emergency situation, which activates what it calls “bunch disruption.” The final opportunity such a statement was actually brought in throughout the 2000 and also 2001 electrical power dilemma, numerous hundreds of services and also residences took turns being actually dropped right into night, energy costs climbed to the condition and also a document’s biggest power was actually pushed into personal bankruptcy. (What the heck?)

Link her for ISO California.


I assume the "negative MW for solar" means solar farms are actually using some electricity to maintain some basic operations such as monitoring, security, etc. And, of course, the reason why solar is not providing any electricity, it's now 8:00 p.m.

Random Update Of An Old Hess Blue Buttes Well -- August 15, 2020

This note may be a bit premature but it looks like we might finally see this well coming back on line. From "things that need following up":

October 23, 2018:  #18250 parallels the wells coming from this 5-well pad; still off line; back on line for a few days in 11/19; one day 12/10; #33737 is on a 5-well pad; this one was the first to report; the others are SI/NC, but I believe they have all been fracked; will soon report; #18250 was IA; 1/19 -- now back on A status, 10/19; three days of production in 2/19; still off line as of 4/19; back on line 5/19 but no production; no production, 7/19; remains off line 9/19; two days production 10/19 with minimal production; 2,000 bbls over 10 days, 11/19; continue to follow; the five well pad: #33736 - #33739, inclusive, all have been fracked; see this note; need to see what #18250 does; intermittent production since 6/17; still struggling; off line, 3/20; back on line? one day of production, 5/20;
The well:

  • 18250, 1,230, Hess, BB-Federal B-151-95-2122H-1, Blue Butte, t5/10; cum 289K 6/20: see recent production; the 1311 bbls over 8 days extrapolates to 5,000 bbls; but we've been here before:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2020813111092745152215220
BAKKEN5-2020112600000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-2020002160000
BAKKEN2-2020282015660
BAKKEN1-20205724471756206200
BAKKEN12-20191207605532142140
BAKKEN11-20191018131678677158015800
BAKKEN10-20192543424735985980
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-2019002130000
BAKKEN5-20192211083563560
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-2019383061441440

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LEGO Red Carpet


Notes From All Over --- Seattle To Chicago -- August 15, 2020

 White (can we still say that?) elephant in Seattle, Washington:

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Headaches in Chicago

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Dumps Entire Position In OXY, Dumps All Of Goldman Sachs -- August 10, 2020

First things first: number one high school football player in the entire United States -- quarterback from local area high school, Southlake,TX; from high school where our oldest granddaughter plays water polo; pretty exciting; signs early with University of Texas Longhorns; stories everywhere; one link here;

Buffett, quarterly update, more on the previously reported story; link here:

  • dumped entire stakes in Goldman Sachs; OXY; 
    • I wonder if he kept his OXY warrants (link here);
  • completed exodus of airlines, including American Airlines; United Airlines; Delta Air Lines; and Southwest Airlines;
  • sold more than a quarter of its stake in Wells Fargo; ownership decreases from 5.3% to 3%;
  • sold about 60% of its position in JPMorgan Chase; now represents only 1% of entire Berkshire holdings; down from 3% in previous quarter;
  • also reduced positions in PNC Finanacial Services; cut position from 0.5% to03%;
  • acquired a new position in Barrick Gold Corp; $563 million (small potatoes as my dad would say);
  • represents 0.3% of Bersire's holdings:
  • increased position in Kroger
  • no changes in AAPL holdings

Renewable energy: reliance on wind and solar will lead to blackouts -- Xcel Energy; link here.

Blackouts in CA: google PG&E starts rotating power outages impacting up to 250,000 customers at a time; unable to warn customers in advance;

Sleepless in Seattle: REI leaving. Google REI to sell brand-new headquarters outside Seattle, embrace 'new normal' of remote work.

Lowe's new beginning: will add fulfillment centers, large-appliance sites for fast delivery, link here. If Lowe's customers like this, thank Amazon.

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Covid-19
For The Archives

A East Coast friend asked me whether folks "in the west" were taking "masking" seriously -- LOL, as if that's the key to beating this thing. LOL. Whatever. This was my response, somewhat superficial, somewhat exaggerated but these were my observations and I'm sticking to them. On my recent cross-country trip:

  • New Mexico was really, really serious about masks; they have a serious problem with Navajos and coronavirus (and Corona beer for that matter, I suppose);
  • Utah, rural areas: I don't think they have heard of Covid-19; no one wore masks; I didn't stop in Salt Lake City area;
  • Idaho: not there long enough to really know how they feel; I doubt they were taking it very seriously;
  • Oregon: I didn't go anywhere while visiting, but service stations suggested they were taking it very seriously; masks required; and my wife and daughter are very, very concerned, mostly due to the new twins and May's asthma, and May is now older; she says she is now over 49 years of age; she was 29 years old for many years;
  • Montana: plus/minus serious about Covid. The bars were packed based on cars in parking lots. One favorite spot was closed for "deep cleaning." I did not go inside to see if patrons were wearing masks. I doubt it.

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The Literature Page

From Bettany Hughes' Helen of Troy: The Story Behind the Most Beautiful Woman in the World, c. 2005, p. 318.

The Cretans (inhabitants of the island of Crete) invented the first-ever script in Old Europe, 'Cretan Hieroglyphic', around 2000 BC, closely followed by another, Linear A; to date both remain undeciphered.

Evidence of these two scripts was uncovered by Arthur Evans when he excavated Knossos on Crete in 1900.

But Evans also discovered another script -- Linear B -- that would prove not quite so elusive. 

Twelve years after Evans' death, in 1953, Michael Ventris, an architect who had worked closely with the brilliant, chain-smoking American scholar Alice E. Kober (the 180,000 rectangles of graph paper that represented much of the leg-work necessary for cracking Linear B were filed in old Lucky and Fleetwood cigarette boxes), deciphered Linear B and showed it to be an early form of Greek. 

Inspired by the innovators to the south, it appers the Mycenaeans took the idea of swriting from the Minoans (island of Crete), but used it to express the early form of Greek that htey spoke.

So, Cretan hieroglyphics, the first-ever script in Old Europe followed by Linear A, both remain undeciphered, and pretty much limited to Crete and where Cretans may have sailed. Then came Linear B, early Greek, and deciphered. How cool is that?

I still marvel at biologists who try to show how "smart" non-human animals are, pointing out the tools that ants and ant-eaters use. For me, the development of language and writing is almost unexplainable, a huge jump from the "language" used by non-human animals.

The jump from animal-grunts and sign language to true "human language" is simply amazing. Think about that. Say "mama" and "papa" over and over and over again, very slowly, and feel the very, very subtle difference. The placement of the lips in both cases is almost identical but the latter ("papa") requires a little "pop" not needed to pronounce "mama."

Pronounce the diphthong "th" and the word "the" over and over and over, maybe a hundred times, and get a feeling for the subtle difference. Again, in both cases, the tongue/upper teeth placement is identical but they part company at the "end" despite "the" being a single syllable, just like "th."

Now, think about that next jump: from oral language to actual writing. How would one even begin to think about writing the representation for "the" and "th." Or "is." How would you think about writing "is"?

Week 33: August 9, 2020 -- August 15, 2020

Who are they trying to kid?

Top story of the week:

Top political story of the week:

Top investing story of the week:

Top energy story of the week:

Most under-reported story:

Most out-of-touch public official:

Top international non-energy story:

Top international energy story:

Top national non-energy story:

Top national energy story:

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota stories:

  • Oil production rises slightly in June; new completions needed to maintain level of production (not more rigs);
  • ND airline boardings continue to improve;
  • State set to intervene in lawsuit over mineral rights
  • MHA Nation condemns state effort to intervene in lawsuit
  • Big name oil companies owe state millions in old royalties; link here;
  • WBI planning to add more than 500 MMcf/d of natural gas pipeline capacity;
  • Watford City looks at $2.84 million deficit in preliminary budget;
  • Districts 1 and 8 both vote to approve reorganization plan;
  • EPA to issue oil and gas methane emissions regulation rollback this week;
  • "Green energy" reality check: expansion will require a lot more mining; link here; Manhattan Institute

Operators:

Operations:

Fracking:

Flaring: