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Monday, August 10, 2020

OXY Warrants -- August 10, 2020

ICYMI: OXY warrants.

Issued August 3, 2020, or thereabouts, to those with OXY, record date, July 6, 2020. Distribution announcement here.

Holders of Occidental common stock will receive 1/8th of a warrant for each share of common stock held as of the record date, and each warrant will entitle the holder to purchase one share of Occidental common stock for a purchase price of $22 per share. The distribution of the warrants will be made on August 3, 2020 to stockholders of record as of July 6, 2020. The warrants will have a term of seven years and Occidental expects to list the warrants on The New York Stock Exchange.

What does it mean? Come due in seven years for $22. Any time between date of issue and 2027, folks can exercise their warrants, buying shares of OXY for $22/share.

Currently trading under ticker symbol "OXY-WT" on NYSE for under $5.00.

SeekingAlpha articles frequently disappear behind a paywall, but as of tonight, this piece on OXY is still accessible. 

*************************************
Tesla

By the way, speaking of such things, how have the 5.3% Tesla bonds been doing? Link here. Last trade: $104. 

**********************************
The Musical

Posted by Bruce Oksol at 8:52 PM No comments:
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It Never Quits -- DAPL Update -- August 10, 2020

Link here.

A federal judge on Monday ordered the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) to detail options by the end of the month for resolving the loss of a permit that allows the Dakota Access crude oil pipeline to operate on U.S. land.

The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia last month voided an easement that allowed a portion of the pipeline to cross federal property in South Dakota, citing violations of environmental requirements.

ACE is exploring four options, including some that would not require it to shut, said Ben Schifman, an attorney representing the Army Corps.

**********************************
President Trump's Executive Orders: August, 2020
Corona Virus Relief

 

Threaded the needle.

Four separate executive orders -- how the headlines report it

  • $400 / week  unemployment check
  • payroll tax holiday
  • extend pause and interest waiver on student loans
  • extend the eviction moratorium

The small print:

  • $400 / week unemployment
    • to get it, states need to "sign on" to it
    • $300 from FEMA's slush fund; $100 from the state
  • payroll tax holiday
    • to the end of the year but then all those taxes are due in lump sum
  • eviction moratorium: 
    • executive order simply has his agencies look into what can be done; no specific measure(s) to stop evictions
  • student loans:
    • the pause extends three months; details unknown
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 8:24 PM No comments:
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Labels: Pipeline, Pipeline_DAPL

Notes From All Over -- The Late Evening Edition -- Nothing About The Bakken -- August 10, 2020

This was originally posted August 6, 2020, but then put in draft. I am re-posting it even though I have since departed Flathead Lake.

**************************************
Walmart And Movies

This is really, really what makes America great! Walmart offering free movies in their parking lots. Link here.

In an announcement that will certainly come as welcome news for the homeless and unemployed already living in their cars in Walmart parking lots, the retailer said yesterday that effective August 14, it is going to be kicking off the "Walmart Drive-in movie theater experience". 
The retailer's "first ever drive-in" movie theater will debut at 160 different Walmart stores across the country starting this month in a partnership with the Tribeca Film Festival. Because showing Disney movies to overweight Walmart customers eating McDonald's in their Dodge pickup trucks is basically synonymous with the elite crowds that attend the Tribeca Film Festival.
This could only happen in America. I love it. You know where you can find me on my cross-country trip back to Grapevine, TX.

******************************
Overlooking Flathead Lake

One of the sisters wanted to drive over to Big Fork and look for deer.

Deciding whether we wanted to go or not, channeling Yogi Berra:
"If we go now, it's too early but if we go later it will be too late."
**********************************
An Oyster Story

Years ago, when we were living on the East Coast, my wife and I went out to seafood restaurants as often as possible. We figured we had pretty much seen it all.

One night with my plate of oysters came red live worms. They were about a quarter-inch / half-inch long and very, very thin, but definitely crawling and definitely worms. They didn't seem to be hurting anything, so I ate the oysters, pushed the plate aside and enjoyed the entree -- probably a shark steak -- and never mentioned the little red worms to the waiter. It was an upscale restaurant, and I didn't want to create a "thing."

Some months later I crossed paths with a young man who had worked in a seafood restaurant while going to college. I asked him about the little red worms. He knew all about them. They are found in oysters, but when restaurants shuck oysters they make sure the little red worms don't make it out to the customers. Only that time they didn't.

Tonight we were talking about ceviche and I was reminded of the little red worms.

Link here.

Worms that are found on oysters are called mud worms. They are red in color and form symbiotic relationships with oysters, according to the release issued by the program.

In other words, these worms are naturally occurring on oysters, and are unsightly but harmless.

Oysters along the Gulf of Mexico are mostly harvested from both public and private oyster reefs.

According to the report, oysters that grow in their own shells build a habitat that attract what is called, "estuarine organism."

The bigger question, are they safe to eat? 
Supan says yes. "They are absolutely harmless and naturally occurring," he added. "If a consumer is offended by it while eating raw oysters, just wipe it off and ask your waiter/waitress for another napkin." 
Supan also said that if there are children at the table, to ask a waiter for a clear glass of water to drop the worms in. 
"They are beautiful swimmers and can be quite entertaining," Supan said.
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 8:18 PM No comments:
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Could Be Rough Day Tomorrow For OXY -- August 10, 2020

 OXY posts $6.6 billion charge after price crash, Bloomberg.

OXY shares up about a dollar today during normal trading hours, then dropped a dollar after hours. From the linked article:

Occidental Petroleum Corp. reported a $6.6 billion writedown in the second quarter, equivalent to more than 40% of its market value, as the collapse in energy prices took its toll on the debt-laden U.S. shale oil producer.

More than two-thirds of the impairment was to account for the lower value of its domestic onshore acreage, with the remainder in the Gulf of Mexico and overseas, the Houston-based company said Monday in a statement. The shares plunged as much 6.8% in after-market trading in New York.

Occidental is not alone is taking large impairments after the Covid-19 pandemic crushed demand for petroleum around the world, but its writedown is one of the biggest relative to its size. Though the charges don’t affect near-term cash flows, they increase certain leverage ratios, potentially pushing up borrowing costs for the oil producer.

Earnings report:

Excluding the writedowns, Occidental made an adjusted loss of $1.76 a share, worse than the average $1.68 estimated by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. 
Production came in at the high-end of Occidental’s guidance, at the equivalent of 1.41 million barrels of oil a day, boosted by output from the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico.

Earnings report from Zacks:

Occidental Petroleum came out with a quarterly loss of $1.76 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $1.66. This compares to earnings of $0.97 per share a year ago. 
These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -6.02%. 
A quarter ago, it was expected that this oil and gas exploration and production company would post a loss of $0.50 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.52, delivering a surprise of -4%. 
Over the last four quarters, the company has not been able to surpass consensus EPS estimates. Occidental posted revenues of $2.98 billion for the quarter ended June 2020, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 23.57%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $4.48 billion. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates three times over the last four quarters.
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 6:19 PM No comments:
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MRO With One New Permit -- August 10, 2020

 Active rigs:

$41.96
8/10/202008/10/201908/10/201808/10/201708/10/2016
Active Rigs1261615733

One new permit: #37728 --

  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Van Hook (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has a permit for a Spencer USA well in NWNW 17-150-97, Van Hook oil field, 300' FNL and 1299' FWL

Two permits renewed:

  • XTO: two Michael State Federal permits, Williams County
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 5:38 PM No comments:
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Huge Stories This Week / Next Week -- August 10, 2020

Huge stories pending this week:

  • Uber, Lyft: California could shut them down within ten days;
  • Politics: Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden to pick his running mate by August 10, 2020 (that's today). Later: announcement said to be imminent -- August 10, 2020; perhaps as early as August 11or August 12; DNC convention: August 17 - August 20, 2020
  • College football: Power 5 to decide whether the five college conferences will play football this season
    • my hunch: yes
    • consensus on talk radio: no


********************************
Nikola

Nikola: this was the big story today on the market, based on the price movement and all the stories ... about one story, the deal with Republic for EV trash trucks --- Nikola announces orders for 2,500 garbage trucks -- so I need to put this in context ...

  • NKLA: up 22% today -- after news of the order for garbage trucks; trading for $45; up $8/share
  • market cap: $16.982 billion
I'm hoping my readers can tell me what a company can expect to "make" on a single truck sale; I'll take a wag --

  • to use the City of Chicago project as an example, the average initial cost of a Motiv electric garbage truck is $500,000 (Re-Inventing the Garbage Truck - Squarespace)

Assume the company make $100,000 on each garbage truck

  • 2,500 trucks x $100,000 = $250 million
  • $250 million / 16,982,000,000 = 1.5%
  • if the company delivers all these 2500 garbage trucks, with a profit margin of 20% or $100,000 on a $500,000 truck, that will equal less than 2% of the company's total market cap

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

$1 - $2 billion contract; obligated to buy 2,500; option to buy a max of 5,000; "partnered" with Republic;

  • 2500 at $1 billion = $400,000
  • 5000 at $2 billion = $400,000

Goal: under $500,000/trash truck -- according to Trevor Milton, CEO of Nikola on "Fast Money," August 10, 2020; how this differs from other trash truck companies -- one company, Nikola, will make all three components -- chassis, powertrain, compactor -- instead of "cobbling" together the three components from three different suppliers.

*******************************
Nonsense

With all that is going on in the investing world, what is "Fast Money" going to focus on this week? All week, each day, "Fast Money" will have a special segment on cannabis. And with that, television is turned off. 

***********************
Before I Go

Apparently the transportation sector was up "huge" today.

I mentioned UNP earlier today -- saw ti this morning. How did it finish? Closed up 2%; up almost $4; closed at $186.85.

On another note, SRE: up 2.83% during normal trading hours; up $3.67; closed at $133.57.

Posted by Bruce Oksol at 4:22 PM No comments:
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Initial Production For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- August 10, 2020

 The wells:

  • 37075, conf, BR, Cleofill 1C, Croff, no productiondata,
  • 36351, conf,  Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-6, Alkali Creek,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201855832621
    5-20202373644774
    4-20201920333219
    3-20201056410410
    2-202038453388
  • 36158, conf,  Hess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-2, Dollar Joe,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201590
    5-20201064223029
    4-20201361827216
    3-20202227339637
    2-20201533221456
  • 36109, conf, BR, Gladstone Gap 44-23TFH-ULW, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 37074, conf, BR, Cleofill 1B, Croff, no production data,
  • 37073, conf, BR, Cleofill 1A, Croff, no production data,
  • 36110, conf, BR, Gladstone Gap 34-23MBH-ULW, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 33929, conf, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 13-25H2, Elm Creek,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    4-202066987351
    3-20201339419155
    2-202022210
  • 36980, conf,  CLR, LCU Truman 8-23H1, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 36111, conf, BR, Outlaw Gap 44-23TFH, SandCreek, no production data,
  • 35895, conf,  Whitign, Rasuer 22-29H, Pembroke,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201153027238
    5-20202506746566
    4-20202608039050
    3-20203196761477
    2-20201382017183
  • 35722, conf,  Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 42-33 7B, Banks,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201582230617
    5-2020223373
    4-20201510329260
    3-20201123023060
    2-202037197151
  • 35597, conf,  Enerplus, Cumulus 149-94-33C-28H, Eagle Nest,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20202171027239
    5-20202663529317
    4-20202023321233
    3-20203356332087
    2-20203092228167
  • 26970, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26E, Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 36981, conf,  CLR, LCU Truman 7-23H, Long Creek, no production data,
  • 36744, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26A, Heart Butte, no production data, 
  • 36421, conf,  Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, Stony Creek,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201522923916
    5-20201453112470
    4-20202389422397
    3-20203633248629
    2-202051315382
  • 36350, conf,  Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-5, Alkali Creek,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20202159245084
    5-20202055040897
    4-20202208340346
    3-20203074757310
    2-20202166432644
  • 36159, conf,  Hess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-3, Dollar Joe,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-202022245935
    5-20201252125903
    4-20201929139100
    3-20202806852356
    2-20202172225833
  • 35721, conf,  Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 11-1 4B, Banks,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20202816555775
    5-20202515559816
    4-20202995263054
    3-20202927662411
    2-2020876221397
  • 35600, conf, Enerplus, Alto 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201908123941
    5-20202827331120
    4-20202605327340
    3-20202814926911
    2-20202250720502
  • 35599, conf,  Enerplus, Haze 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20202792135033
    5-20202302725345
    4-20202496326196
    3-20203443532921
    2-20202994627278
  • 35598, conf, Enerplus, Vapor 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-2020876410997
    5-20201335614701
    4-20202065421674
    3-20203273331293
    2-20201757616011
  • 36727, conf, CLR, Marshall 8-24H, Little Knife,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    5-2020140492388
    4-2020168516103
    3-2020192719431
    2-20204590
  • 35859, conf,  Newfield, Kummer 149-98-2A-11-3H, Pembroke, no production data,
  • 35894, conf,  Whiting, Rauser 11-29-2H, Pembroke,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    6-20201352635221
    5-20202286044337
    4-20202388035421
    3-20202272138546
    2-20202437429774
  • 33930, conf, CLR, Holstein Federal 14-24H2, Elm Tree,
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    4-20201229615053
    3-20201722323229
    2-20206520
  • 36982, drl/TAI, CLR, LCU Truman 6-23H1, Long Creek, no production;
  • 36746, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26F, Heart Butte, t--; no production,
  • 36745, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24-26EXH, Heart Butte, t-- ; no production,
  • 35719, SI/A, Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 11-1 3TX, Banks, t--; cum 89K 4 months; a 25K month;
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN6-2020302191721821228415317052622228
    BAKKEN5-20205401401611109110326
    BAKKEN4-2020302060820639225425012149451350
    BAKKEN3-20203124690250242851366033643441358
    BAKKEN2-20202720919205482001447699456331852
  • 35858, drl/A, Newfield, Kummer 149-83-3-10-10HLW, Pembroke, no production; 
  • 36747, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26C,  Heart Butte, no production data,
  • 36728, drl/A, CLR, Marshall 7-24H1, Little Knife, t--; cum 26K 2 months; Little Knife,
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN6-20200000000
    BAKKEN5-202011200673102960
    BAKKEN4-202028966993203657669576301497
    BAKKEN3-2020221515914994513481142186122809
    BAKKEN2-202061026102654684180418
  • 36420, SI/A, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek, t--; cum 84K 4 months; a 35K month; no production data,
  • 35857, drl/NC, Newfield, Kummer 149-98-3-10-2HLW, Pembroke,
  • 36983, drl/TAI, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 5-23H1, Long Creek,
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 4:11 PM No comments:
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Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- August 10, 2020

Monday, August 17, 2020: 54 for the month; 125 for the quarter, 571 for the year:

  • 37075, conf, BR, Cleofill 1C,
  • 36351, conf,  Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-6,
  • 36158, conf,  Hess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-2,
  • 36109, conf, BR, Gladstone Gap 44-23TFH-ULW,

Sunday, August 16, 2020: 50 for the month; 121 for the quarter, 567 for the year:

  • 37074, conf, BR, Cleofill 1B,

Saturday, August 15, 2020: 49 for the month; 120 for the quarter, 566 for the year:

  • 37073, conf, BR, Cleofill 1A,
  • 36110, conf, BR, Gladstone Gap 34-23MBH-ULW,
  • 33929, conf, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 13-25H2,

Friday, August 14, 2020: 46 for the month; 117 for the quarter, 563 for the year:

  • 36980, conf,  CLR, LCU Truman 8-23H1,
  • 36111, conf, BR, Outlaw Gap 44-23TFH,

Thursday, August 13, 2020: 44 for the month; 115 for the quarter, 561 for the year:

  • 35895, conf,  Whitign, Rasuer 22-29H,
  • 35722, conf,  Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 42-33 7B,
  • 35597, conf,  Enerplus, Cumulus 149-94-33C-28H,
  • 26970, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26E,

Wednesday, August 12, 2020: 40 for the month; 111 for the quarter, 557 for the year:

  • 36981, conf,  CLR, LCU Truman 7-23H, 
  • 36744, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26A, 
  • 36421, conf,  Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, 
  • 36350, conf,  Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-5, 
  • 36159, conf,  Hess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-3, 
  • 35721, conf,  Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 11-1 4B, 
  • 35600, conf, Enerplus, Alto 149-94-33C-28H-TF,
  • 35599, conf,  Enerplus, Haze 149-94-33C-28H-TF, 
  • 35598, conf, Enerplus, Vapor 149-94-33C-28H-TF,

Tuesday, August 11, 2020: 31 for the month; 102 for the quarter, 548 for the year:

  • 36727, conf, CLR, Marshall 8-24H, 
  • 35859, conf,  Newfield, Kummer 149-98-2A-11-3H, 
  • 35894, conf,  Whiting, Rauser 11-29-2H, 
  • 33930, conf, CLR, Holstein Federal 14-24H2,

Monday, August 10, 2020: 27 for the month; 98 for the quarter, 544 for the year:

  • 36982, drl/TAI, CLR, LCU Truman 6-23H1, Long Creek,
  • 36746, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26F, Heart Butte, t--;
  • 36745, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24-26EXH, Heart Butte, t-- ;
  • 35719, SI/A, Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 11-1 3TX, Banks, t--; cum 89K 4 months; a 25K month;
  • 35858, drl/A, Newfield, Kummer 149-83-3-10-10HLW, Pembroke, no production;

Sunday, August 9, 2020: 22 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 539 for the year:

  • 36747, drl/NC, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26C,  Heart Butte, 
  • 36728, drl/A, CLR, Marshall 7-24H1, Little Knife, t--; cum 26K 2 months;
  • 36420, SI/A, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek, t--; cum 84K 4 months; a 35K month;
  • 35857, drl/NC, Newfield, Kummer 149-98-3-10-2HLW, Pembroke,

Saturday, August 8, 2020: 18 for the month; 89 for the quarter, 535 for the year:

36983, drl/TAI, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 5-23H1, Long Creek,
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 3:49 PM No comments:
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The Sturgis Rally: A Most Interesting Science Experiment -- August 10, 2020

 As I mentioned earlier, I don't follow the coronavirus story very closely any more. As I said earlier:

I track the coronavirus story here but I don't update it very much any more. I lost interest in this story when:

  • I realized they were tracking the wrong metric;
  • I learned the CDC's "definition of a case" which may or may not be the same definition that all states are using;
  • the issue moved from the science/medical arena to the political arena
  • I realized the whole reporting / analysis was a bunch of nonsense

There is now a new wrinkle. I don't know if folks realize this. Except for a few states, the rate of rise in the number of new cases of Covid-19 being reported is slowing. And this is at a time when the number of Covid-19 tests being accomplished are increasing significantly.

Isn't that interesting? 

I would argue that the most interesting "science experiment" is now happening in South Dakota. Hopefully, the number of cyclists expected to show up actually show up. In round numbers, "they" say the normal number of cyclists that show up for the Sturgis Rally is 500,000. This year "they" estimate it will be closer to 250,000. 

It will be interesting to see the number of cases of coronavirus that South Dakota will report starting two weeks from now and going for another four weeks after that. 

In fact, one can argue that not only is this the most interesting "science experiment" going on right now, it may just be one of the most important "tests" that we could possibly have. We had a similar "test" in the early days of the pandemic here in the states when the governor of New York actively returned those with active disease back to their own nursing homes. With the data he had at the time, I probably would have done the same thing. Governor Cuomo's heart was in the right place, but unfortunately, we learned who was most vulnerable (of course, that was not surprising; that's true for seasonal flu also). 

We have no idea how many folks have now had asymptomatic Covid-19. So, if we don't see a spike in new cases four weeks from now, despite the Sturgis Rally, we will have another data point. 

I'm unaware of the CDC taking advantage of the data that could come out of the Sturgis Rally. If, in fact, the CDC is not proactively taking advantage of this science experiment, they are letting us down.

By the way, we are being told that similar large crowds, albeit much smaller, have not resulted in a surge of coronavirus cases. I'm talking about the riots / demonstrations in Seattle, Portland, and Chicago. 

Posted by Bruce Oksol at 3:13 PM 2 comments:
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Apparently These #BlackLives Don't Matter -- August 10, 2020

A reader caught this story. I would have missed it. Thank you.

Earlier this month, it was noted that Marathon would be closing two refineries, including its fourth-largest refinery which happens to be located in the San Francisco Bay area. We posted that story here. 

The first think I thought of was the number of good-paying jobs that would be lost. I didn't have time to write about it nor could I have written anything as good as the article as IceAgeNow. Link here.

Marathon Petroleum recently announced it will “indefinitely idle” its Martinez Refinery. The decision will remove hundreds of jobs, billions of dollars, and nearly 7 million gallons of gasoline, diesel and other petroleum liquids per day from the energy-hungry California economy. 
It will also send fuel prices even higher for minority and other poor families that already pay by far the highest gasoline prices in the continental United States: $1.32 more per gallon of regular than in Louisiana and Texas. California’s green and political interests don’t want drilling or fracking, pipelines, or nuclear, coal or hydroelectric power plants – or mining for the materials needed to manufacture electric cars. They prefer to have that work done somewhere else, and just import the energy, cars and consumer goods. 
They’ve long wanted a totally electric vehicle (EV) fleet, which they claim would be clean, ethical, climate-friendly and sustainable. Of course, those labels hold up only so long as they look solely at activities and emissions within California state boundaries – and not where the mining, manufacturing and electricity generation take place. That kind of “life cycle” analysis would totally disrupt their claims.

I had forgotten about higher costs for those who can least afford it and I would argue, those lives matter, also.

It's a long article, but a great article. It's such a great article, I will archive it so it's not lost.

Unfortunately, the writer is preaching to the choir. 

Posted by Bruce Oksol at 2:35 PM No comments:
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Distillate Volumes -- Random Update -- Why Are Distillate Fuel Inventories So Hig? -- August 10, 2020

 Back in late July, these were the top stories of the week:

  • Chevron buys Noble Energy; and, here; is OXY next?
  • US distillate fuel inventories;
  • #BLM erasing the Native American;
  • Eldorado Resorts, Inc. is now the world's biggest casino company;
  • Israeli target practice;

The US distillate fuel story is still with us. This graphic was posted August 8, 2020:

US distillate inventories:

 Last night, Focus on Fracking:

The EIA reported 1,418,000 more barrels ​of oil production ​per day in May than was actually produced; natural gas prices rose by most in any week since 2009; distillates supplies at ​a third straight 38 year high; oil rig count now lowest in 15 years.

...at the same time, our refineries' production of distillate fuels (diesel fuel and heat oil) increased by 126,000 barrels per day to 4,909,000 barrels per day, after our distillates output had decreased by 20,000 barrels per day over the prior week

... after this week's increase in distillates output, our distillates' production was 7.1% less than the 5,286,000 barrels of distillates per day that were being produced during the week ending August 2nd, 2019

.... similarly, with the increase in our distillates production, our supplies of distillate fuels increased for the fifteenth time in 29 weeks and for the 20th time in 44 weeks, rising by 1,591,000 barrels to another 38 year high of 179,977,000 barrels during the week ending July 31st, after our distillates supplies had increased by 503,000 barrels over the prior week

....our distillates supplies rose again this week even though the amount of distillates supplied to US markets, an indicator of our domestic demand, rose by 65,000 barrels per day to 3,700,000 barrels per day, because our exports of distillates fell by 111,000 barrels per day to 1,113,000 barrels per day while our imports of distillates fell by 17,000 barrels per day to 131,000 barrels per day...after this week's inventory increase, our distillate supplies at the end of the week were 30.9% above the 137,451,000 barrels of distillates that we had in storage on August 2nd, 2019, and about 27% above the five year average of distillates stocks for this time of the year...

*******************************
Why Are Distillate Volumes So High Right Now?

Which reminds me. When this was first being reported, I asked the question why might distillate fuels being rising so much? This might be complicated to follow my thought process on this but I bet I'm correct.

When we lived in Germany, we heated our house with heating oil. We learned that the Germans bought they heating oil and filled their tanks in the summer when prices were lowest. When the weather started turning cooler, and in the dead of winter, distillate fuel prices rose astronomically. Those with the extra money during the summer were able to fill their tanks. And folks tried estimating how much they would need to get through the winter.

Now, with so many folks laid off, especially in the New England and northern Atlantic states, my hunch is that a lot of folks don't have the cash to buy heating oil that they will not need until November or December, or later.

Likewise, if restaurants, bars, and other mom-and-pop retail establishments are shut down, there is probably little incentive to fill the heating oil tanks during the pandemic.

Exports have also dropped, and that would be for the same reason. Folks without jobs, without money, can't buy heating oil right now, here in the states, or overseas.

Posted by Bruce Oksol at 2:20 PM 2 comments:
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Another One Bites The Dust -- August 10, 2020

 This is so cool. This is why I love to blog. 

I posted this about ten minutes ago:

I track the coronavirus story here but I don't update it very much any more. I lost interest in this story when:

  • I realized they were tracking the wrong metric;
  • I learned the CDC's "definition of a case" which may or may not be the same definition that all states are using;
  • the issue moved from the science/medical arena to the political arena
  • I realized the whole reporting / analysis was a bunch of nonsense

Now, this from social media, breaking while I was posting the above. First, it was Chow Mein, now Sonia Angell:

That's the governor in the background, probably thinking about his state's bullet train.

And from a google search --- 

As I said earlier, the reporting and analysis is a bunch of nonsense.

By the way, it's not often that a governor fires someone in a position like this faster than President Trump fires someone. 

Posted by Bruce Oksol at 12:36 PM No comments:
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Notes From All Over -- Mid-Day Report -- Trump On Mount Rushmore -- August 10, 2020

First things first: AAPL now up 1.5%, or up almost $7/share, again trading above $451.

Sempra: Cameron LNG starts full commercial operations. Link here.

  • Sempra Energy says the Cameron LNG export facility in Louisiana has begun full commercial operations under Cameron LNG's tolling agreements.
  • commercial operations of Train 3 mark the beginning of full run-rate earnings under the facility's tolling agreements.
  • Cameron LNG achieved commercial operations of Train 1 and Train 2 in August 2019 and February 2020, respectively.
  • Sempra, which indirectly owns 50.2% of Cameron LNG, expects the facility to generate nearly $12B of after-debt service cash flows for the company during the 20-year contract period.

Market:

  • Dow holds; still up 260 points at noon
    SRE: up 1.2%; trading at $131.45; still well off its 52-week high
  • PE's
    • Alteryx: earlier this month, 1,400, now n/a
    • TSLA: 734
    • AMZN: 120
    • BRK-A: 51
    • FB: 32
    • Microsoft: 36
    • AAPL: 34
    • GOOG: 32
    • BAC: 13
    • MDU: 13
    • SRE: 9
    • F: n/a
    • GE: n/a

New record highs: FedEx and UPS.

Plastic bags: the other day it was reported that Walmart, Target and CVS have teamed up to spent $2 billion on researching a substitute for plastic bags. Hint: Americans have already found an alternative to plastic bags: Amazon cardboard boxes. 

ICYMI: Trump on Mount Rushmore -- 

Would he be willing to share a mountain with four other presidents? Probably not. He's probably just looking into the process. There are a lot of other granite "mountains" in the Black Hills. I hope they use orange agate for the hair.

Posted by Bruce Oksol at 12:13 PM No comments:
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Kash-&-Kari's Plan To Lock Down The US For Six Weeks -- August 10, 2020

I will be updating my thoughts on this as we go along. I will post the original and then provide updates, as we usually do.

I track the coronavirus story here but I don't update it very much any more. I lost interest in this story when:

  • I realized they were tracking the wrong metric;
  • I learned the CDC's "definition of a case" which may or may not be the same definition that all states are using;
  • the issue moved from the science/medical arena to the political arena
  • I realized the whole reporting / analysis was a bunch of nonsense
******************************
Updates

Later, 6:05 p.m. CDT, lock downs? Folks cheat. See this link. It's pretty obvious what happened here. 

An Argentine fishing boat that had been at sea for 35 days returned to land when some of its 61 crew showed symptoms of the new coronavirus, Tierra del Fuego Province's Health Ministry reported on Monday. 
Reports later that evening from local outlets said that 57 of the crew members had tested positive for Covid-19. The Ushuaia 24 news portal said that all of them remain isolated on the ship, the Etchizen Maru, and that they would not be allowed to disembark. Only medical personnel would be allowed to board, it added. 
The incident has attracted attention since prior to setting sail the 60 crew members had completed 14 days of mandatory quarantine in a hotel in Ushuaia, and before that they had been swabbed with a negative result, according to a statement from the Tierra del Fuego health portfolio, in the southern tip.

Later, 12:18 p.m. CDT, first some questions, quick:

  • first, how many people are there in the United States?
  • second, how man cases of Covid-19 have been diagnose in the United States?
  • third: when did Covid first appear in the US?
  • fourth: the first "lock down" -- when did it begin and how long did it last? What were the statistics coming out of that lock down?
  • are there any cases of Covid-19 outside of the US?

*******************************
Original Post

Posted August 10, 2020.

This story got a bit of attention on talk radio Sunday: Fed's Kashkari calls for 6-week economic shutdown to control coronavirus spread. Google key words.

Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, called for a nationwide economic shutdown for up to six weeks to get the coronavirus pandemic under control on Friday, warning that the rest of 2020 could be much worse than what America has experienced so far.

"The next six months could make what we have experienced so far seem like just a warm-up to a greater catastrophe. With many schools and colleges starting, stores and businesses reopening, and the beginning of the indoor heating season, new case numbers will grow quickly," Kashkari wrote in a New York Times op-ed with Dr. Michael T. Osterholm, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

Kashkari echoed comments he made a week ago on CBS's "Face the Nation," when he argued that "if we were to lock down hard for a month or six weeks, we could get the case count down so that our testing and our contact tracing was actually enough to control" the spread of coronavirus.

President Trump has insisted that states resist the urge to roll back reopening. He said earlier this week when asked about Kashkari’s comments that the country is “not going back to shutdowns.”

I will come back to this later, but for now:

  • Kashkari obviously does not understand this virus nor viruses in general.
Posted by Bruce Oksol at 11:24 AM No comments:
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Random Update -- Saudi Arabia -- Saudi Aramco -- August 10, 2020

US crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia.  Link here.

  • first, the graph:

  • now, the spreadsheet: 

Saudi Arabia: 

  • in deep trouble; Saudi Arabia sticks to dividend pledge despite plunge in earnings; paywall, Financial Times, CEO/Board of Directors have no say; the King of Saudi Arabia "directs" tht the dividend will continue to be paid; see this note (a must-read);
  • Saudi Aramco's earning show why Apple is now the world's most valuable company; paywall, Barron's; 
  • Saudi Aramco's first-half profits plummet 50%; CEO calls results "solid"; MarketWatch,  
  • Saudi Arabia turns off America's oil taps again; Bloomberg;  
  • quick: what US state depends most on Saudi Arabian oil?
  • US oil imports from Saudi Arabia, tracked here, EIA;
  • Saudi foreign exchange reserves drop again;

Total US oil imports: down 18% year-over-year (from all sources, not just Saudi Arabia), link here.

Posted by Bruce Oksol at 10:59 AM No comments:
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Labels: SaudiCashCrunch, SaudiImport, SaudiPerspective, SaudiReserveAssets

Notes From All Over -- Market Opening -- August 10, 2020

First things first: we should know today whether the "Power 5" will have a football season this year: Big 10; PAC 12; SEC; etc. My hunch: yes. Consensus: no.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

At market open:

  • Dow surges: up 229 points; "stocks rise as investors eye earnings, Trump's virus orders:
    • remember when "they" said 2Q20 earnings would be ghastly;
    • Trump threaded the needle; more on this later;
    • Dow on longest win streak since September, 2019;
  • NASDAQ: flat; down 12 points, after hitting all-time records last week;
  • S&P: flat; up slightly
  • AAPL: up $6/share
  • IMUX: about about 0.95; up 25 cents;
  • Kodak shares plunge; 
  • Tencent shares lose $66 billion in 2-day rout on WeChat ban; link here;
  • Duke Energy: tops EPS; $1.08 vs $1.04; 
  • Holy mackerel -- completely missed this -- UNP up $2.67; up 1.46%; trading at $185; 52--week high was $189; wow;
  • McDonald's: sues ousted CEO;

McDonald’s says it's suing Stephen Easterbrook, the CEO it ousted last year over an inappropriate relationship with an employee, alleging Monday that he covered up relationships with other employees and destroyed evidence.

Easterbrook, according to a lawsuit, approved a special grant of restricted stock, worth hundreds of thousands of dollars to one of those employees.

The company now wants to reclaim hundreds of thousands of dollars in compensation paid to Easterbrook on his departure.

McDonald’s fired Easterbrook last November after he acknowledged exchanging videos and text messages in a non-physical, consensual relationship with an employee. Easterbrook told the company that there were no other similar instances.

Other:

  • Tesla paid nearly $100 million to acquire Texas gigafactory land; link here; 
The former owner of the property, TXI Operations LP, a unit of Martin Marietta Inc, revealed in an earnings call on July 28 that it sold a “depleted standing gravel location” for $97 million, as earlier reported by local Austin media. TXI IOperations didn't give further details on the property it sold, or the name of the buyer, but according to Electrek, the reference is to none other than Tesla's under-construction manufacturing facility near Austin, Texas. And without anything to put that into perspective, it means nothing to me.

Mauled: Number one US mall operator faces a huge battle as tenants fight for their lives; Bloomberg, August 10, 2020;

Ebonics: years ago I studied the language some folks call Ebonics. I've long lost the bubble on that. I don't know if it's politically correct to say that or not. Let's check wiki. I assume African-American vernacular English is now the preferred term. Whatever. A lot of non-woke folks are under the impression that AAVE is "incorrect" English. In fact, it's very "correct." But be that as it may -- a discussion for another day. The reason I brought it up: today on sports talk radio one individual asked another how long he had had his Apple computer. His response in AAVE:

I've been having my Mac computer for five years now.

At one time this might have offended me, but this was from a well-educated radio host. It was so interesting to see him speak AAVE. I had not heard it in a long time. 

 

Posted by Bruce Oksol at 9:13 AM No comments:
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