Sunday, August 2, 2020

The Blog May Look A Bit Different Going Forward -- August 2, 2020

"Blogger" app has made some major changes regarding the app. It's going to make my life a bit more difficult. I'm not sure why "they" made the change. 

Two things. 

First, it will take awhile for me to get used to this, which in the near term will result in slower blogging. That's a personal problem. Readers probably won't notice. 

Second, readers may note some format changes. If you note format changes, I am not responsible -- it is a result of the way the "blogger" is doing things. 

Two positive things about the changes: a) there should be fewer spelling errors, the blogger now auto-corrects; and, b) the "blogger" folks are trying to make the "blogger app" more compatible with mobile devices. If so, maybe it will work better on my iPad. 

Again, hopefully, the only thing readers might note, is a very, very subtle change in format.

 Lonesome Friends of Science, John Prine 

Comcast, Peacock, AMC, Hulu, Disney, And All That Jazz -- August 2, 2020

I'm sure I was the last one to find out about this. I've been following "Peacock" and have actually watched some shows already on "Peacock," but I did not know the "rest of the story.

It's important to me because decades ago I invested in something (I've long forgotten what it was) for my daughters which then morphed into something called Comcast (CMCSA). I have no complaints about CMCSA as an investment. I haven't followed it very closely. "Max" looks oka and it had a nice dividend. 

Little did I know. Today, over at Motley Fool, "Comcast goes all in on cord-cutting." For anyone interested in CMCSA as an investment, this is a must-read.

The high points.

First:

On Thursday's second-quarter earnings call, the company announced a shift in its emphasis from the linear TV business to streaming -- a move that comes hard on the heels of its formal launch of the Peacock streaming network nationally, and just days after it forged a landmark deal with cinema chain owner AMC Entertainment to dramatically shrink the length of time that movies must be given theatrical exclusivity before they can be shown by other means.
 

As a result of that latter agreement, AMC will continue to screen Universal movies in its multiplexes, and Comcast will be able to offer them on demand starting 17 days after their release.

Those two moves, along with its robust broadband internet business, give the company confidence to shift its strategy and invest in a growing niche of the entertainment industry while cable continues to decline.

Second:

The shift in emphasis away from cable also comes as Comcast's broadband business nears the point where it will surpass pay-TV as the company's biggest revenue generator. By building more of its business around streaming video, Comcast will encourage increased broadband adoption and spending.

NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell explained the move on the earnings call, saying the pandemic has accelerated a shift in viewership from linear TV to non-linear. In response, the company has combined its linear and streaming departments and is planning to announce a new structure for that business, which is expected to shift resources from linear to streaming and will include layoffs, according to Variety.

Third:

Management said more than 10 million households have signed up for Peacock since its soft launch for Comcast customers in April and its national debut for everyone in July. The company's stated goal is to boost that number to between 30 million and 35 million by 2024, though that could prove to be a conservative target, given the surging growth of other newish streaming services, such as Disney+, and even more so since Peacock offers people the option of a free, ad-supported tier. Shell said the number of sign-ups so far has exceeded expectations and that viewers were watching Peacock more frequently and engaging for longer times than expected. The NBCUniversal boss also touted new programming coming to the service in January, including The Office, which has in the past been the most watched show on Netflix.

Fourth:

Comcast also owns one-third of Hulu, giving it another valuable stake in the streaming video world, though it has agreed to sell that minority share to Disney, which owns the rest of it, in 2024.

Fifth:

The deal ended a dispute with AMC, the world's largest movie theater operator, which kicked off after Shell said NBCUniversal would release movies simultaneously in theaters and at home, following the successful on-demand release of Trolls World Tour. 

AMC responded by saying it would ban Universal movies. The agreement they announced this week seems to be in the best interest of both parties. Theater owners get exclusivity for a period that covers movies' first three weekends in release -- which is when most films rake in the majority of their box office hauls anyway. And Universal gets the ability to make money both from ticket sales and through video-on-demand rentals -- a niche that includes AMC's own PVOD platform, AMC Theaters on Demand.

Years and years ago I tried keeping up with the various cell phone "specs" / cell phone technology but soon gave up. It was impossible to keep up. Remember the "CDMA vs GSM" debate? So long ago. Now, I'm trying to keep up with the various networks, streaming services, content providers and their relationships. It's impossible. 


Notes From All Over, The Late Night Sunday Edition: Parallel Universes, Bubba Wallace, And Other Silly Things -- August 2, 2020

I just dropped into a huge "funk." It's amazing how fast it can happen. It's like a switch that goes from "on" to "off' in a micro-second.

So, quick some music. Maybe I can forestall the "funk" from going into a full-fledged 48-hour depression. LOL.

It's Just a Matter of Time, Randy Travis

Hurricane watch: wow, I'm glad I don't watch television. I assume the weather channel was nothing but "hurricane" 24/7 for the past few days. And then it died. Apparently it was a hurricane until it wasn't. Apparently it turned out to be nothing but a rainstorm drenching Florida on its way to North Carolina. I'm sure "everyone" was hoping Mar a Lago would be wiped out. Or is it Mar-a-Lago? And, oh, by the way, did SpaceX astronauts land in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend -- despite the storm? I assume if NASA had been in charge, they would have delayed the return until the weather cleared. I'm beginning to like this Musk Melon fellow.

Bubba hits the big time! From the aptly-named silly-season-site (and I can't make this up): Bubba Wallace is in talks to take part ownership of/in his team. First thought I had: Bill Buckner had he been offered part ownership in the Red Sox in 1986.
In the wee hours of the morning on October 26, 1986, Red Sox first baseman Bill Buckner lets an easy ground ball dribble between his legs and roll down the right-field line. It was just a routine fielding error, but it was a disaster for the Boston Red Sox: It was the 10th inning of the sixth game of the World Series; the game was tied; and, thanks to Buckner’s mistake, the runner on third had time to score, winning the game for the Mets and forcing a tiebreaking seventh—which, in the final innings, the Mets also won.
Even though Game 6 was tied because Boston’s pitchers couldn’t hold a two-run, two-out lead, and even though the Sox managed to fritter away a three-run lead in Game 7, people still blame Buckner for losing the championship. “I can’t remember the last time I missed a ball like that,” he said, “but I’ll remember this one.”
Back to Bubba:
"We went from probably having one meeting a week with a potential sponsor to five the last five weeks or so," said Murstein. "I think Bubba is probably the most recognizable NASCAR driver now, other than Richard Petty. So, we’ve got probably the two most recognizable names in the sport. It’s a marketer’s dream."
Wow, nothing but participation trophies and now part owner of his team. I'm living in a parallel universe to what I'm seeing across the event horizon. 
Speaking of the silly season: I won't link it and won't say anything more about it, but apparently the polls have reversed. Trump is now leading the man-in-the-basement. Not be confused with the lady-in-the-attic.

US stock futures: it's pretty much over for the night, except perhaps at TD Ameritrade where trading goes on for 24 hours five days a week -- but the Dow is down marginally at 10:00 p.m. ET, while the much more important S&P and NASDAQ are up slightly. By the way, when AAPL splits four-for-one on August 31, 2020, the Dow could be impacted negatively while the S&P will not be affected. Most mom-and-pop investors won't understand that. Next update: 8:00 a.m. EDT.

AAPL: note disclaimer. But AAPL's most recent quarter was absolutely incredible. I don't think there was one Apple product line -- hardware, software, services -- that failed to impress. Just think, you can buy one hundred shares tomorrow morning and a month from now, if you don't sell, you will have four hundred shares. Why Apple's stock split truly shocked shareholders.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Not Bill Buckner, But Bob Uecker, The Johnny Carson Show

Notes From All Over -- August 2, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Stocks in the news:
  • MPC: "7-11" to buy Marathon's Speedway for $21 billion; link here; at the close on Friday, trading at $38.20/share
  • MPC: won't re-start two idled oil refineries; one in California; one in New Mexico; link here;
    • Martinez, CA: to comply with California's Low Carbon Fuel Standards objectives and greenhouse gas-reduction targets
    • Gallup refinery, in New Mexico: 26,000 b/d
    • May 5, 2020, earnings call: said these refineries were being looked at because they are the company's highest-cost facilities among its sixteen refineries
    • note to folks in ND/Mandan refinery: too much global refining capacity and existing refineries will be pressured by new facilities coming online
  • APA: world-class discovery in the Guyana-Suriname Basin; link here. Interestingly enough, if you can find it, good for you; I did not. I did not see a) the definition of "world-class discovery"; b) how much oil this "world-class discovery" might yield; and, c) most importantly, how it compares to the gold standard, the Bakken.
Pipelines: Occasional-Cortez deal could be another "fatal" blow to US pipelines, including the DAPL; link here;
  • the writing is pretty much on the wall
  • very little CAPEX going forward on big pipeline projects
  • existing pipelines become more valuable
Samsung Electronics to halt production at its last computer factory in China; link here.

Wind power: expensive! This is from the NY Post so almost "no one" will pay attention, but those who do will think it's a fake story -- wind costing upwards of $500 / MWh.
Of course, in North Dakota where coal and natural gas is used, one can see electricity as low as $30 / MWh. One can track electricity rates in New England and in New York.

From the linked NY Post article:
Consider Rhode Island’s 30-megawatt, six-turbine offshore wind project located off Block Island and operated by Deepwater Wind. A decade ago, Rhode Island’s public utility commission rejected the project, concluding that the sky-high prices it would charge the local electric utility would adversely affect consumers. Yet the Rhode Island legislature ignored consumer interests and forced the commission to approve a 20-year contract.
At the start, in 2016, the local utility paid $245 per megawatt-hour for the project’s electricity, with a guaranteed increase of 3.5 percent each year. In 2035, the last year of the contract, the price will be an eye-popping $470 per MWh. By contrast, the average price of wholesale electricity in New England last year was about $31/MWh. In New York, average prices ranged between $22 per MWh upstate to $51 per MWh in Gotham.
Elsewhere, the dozen offshore projects now under development have lower-priced contracts, but they are still far higher than market prices. In New York, the first-year prices for the 816 MW Empire Wind and 880 MW Sunrise Wind projects will be $99/MWh and $110/MWh, respectively. And that’s cheap compared to electricity from some other wind projects in the Atlantic, which range from $77.76/MWh to $202/MWh.
Wind power: Germany! From Forbes:
With Germany as inspiration, the United Nations and World Bank poured billions into renewables like wind, solar, and hydro in developing nations like Kenya.

But then, last year, Germany was forced to acknowledge that it had to delay its phase-out of coal, and would not meet its 2020 greenhouse gas reduction commitments. It announced plans to bulldoze an ancient church and forest in order to get at the coal underneath it.

After renewables investors and advocates, including Al Gore and Greenpeace, criticized Germany, journalists came to the country’s defense.
“Germany has fallen short of its emission targets in part because its targets were so ambitious,” one of them argued last summer.

“If the rest of the world made just half Germany’s effort, the future for our planet would look less bleak,” she wrote. “So Germany, don’t give up. And also: Thank you.”

But Germany didn’t just fall short of its climate targets. Its emissions have flat-lined since 2009.

Now comes a major article in the country’s largest newsweekly magazine, Der Spiegel, titled, “A Botched Job in Germany” ("Murks in Germany"). The magazine’s cover shows broken wind turbines and incomplete electrical transmission towers against a dark silhouette of Berlin.

“The Energiewende — the biggest political project since reunification — threatens to fail,” write Der Spiegel’s Frank Dohmen, Alexander Jung, Stefan Schultz, Gerald Traufetter in their a 5,700-word investigative story.

Over the past five years alone, the Energiewende has cost Germany €32 billion ($36 billion) annually, and opposition to renewables is growing in the German countryside.

“The politicians fear citizen resistance” Der Spiegel reports. “There is hardly a wind energy project that is not fought.”

In response, politicians sometimes order “electrical lines be buried underground but that is many times more expensive and takes years longer.”
Much, much more at the link.
Remind me: I need to re-subscribe to Forbes

The Music Man -- August 2, 2020

*************************
Passports



*******************************
Helicopter Money

Enquiring minds want to know: Are children born in 2020 eligible for stimulus check payment? Yes. Link here.

**************************
For The Grandchildren: The Music Page

Note: see first comment. For some reason, the new "blogger app" won't let me reply on my own blog. I'm still trying to figure this out.

I'm working with Sophia to learn to play the piano. She has an iPad application which is excellent but she likes me to be there with her when she practices.

Now, Sophia is about to get some competition. This is me with Judah's first time at the piano:


When I took my hands away and let him play on his own, he reminded me, #BlackKeysMatter, Too.

The Panther Wells

August 2, 2020: Panther wells coming off the confidential list over the next week or so:
The wells:
  • 36420, conf, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek, fracked 12/22/2018 - 1/5/20; 7.42 million gallons of water; 89.1% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.06578;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202030159771416121044000
BAKKEN5-2020241170610289167741581014856596
BAKKEN4-2020281507713692249921833517426492
BAKKEN3-2020313507330889546523132629956908
BAKKEN2-2020860205566165159177899563
  • 36419, conf, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 4H, Stony Creek, fracked 12/22/19 - 1/4/20; 8.3 million gallons of water; 89% by mass; friction reducer, 0.06589;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2020155970
5-20201423620363
4-20202677032053
3-20203653646005
2-202025563186
  • 36418, SI/A, Zavanna, Panther 16-22 5TFH XE,  Stony Creek, fracked 12/23/19 - 1/5/20; 7.521 million gallons of water; 89.1% water by mass; friction reducer, 0.06434;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20203011166990517379000
BAKKEN5-20202896988524151371467513796461
BAKKEN4-2020281643614948244802014319193533
BAKKEN3-2020313048126845419043353032269799
BAKKEN2-2020138289766427729105219622705

***************************************************
The Panther wells

The Panther wells:
  • 36421, SI/NC-->conf, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, Stony Creek, producing as of 2/20; cum 95K 6/20;
  • 21226, 996, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 1H, Stony Creek, t4/12; cum 458K 6/20; off line 5/19; remains off line 10/19; back on line 2/20; nice jump in production;
  • 36420, SI/NC, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek,
  • 36419, SI/NC, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 4H, Stony Creek,
  • 36418, SI/NC, Zavanna, Panher 16-21 5TFH XE, Stony Creek, 
*****************************************
Production 
(not always updated) 
  • 36421, still confidential:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20201453112470
4-20202389422397
3-20203633248629
2-202051315382

  • 36420, back on confidential, but this was released before the well went back on confidential
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-2020241170610289167741581014856596
BAKKEN4-2020281507713692249921833517426492
BAKKEN3-2020313507330889546523132629956908
BAKKEN2-2020860205566165159177899563

  • 36419, still confidential::
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20201423620363
4-20202677032053
3-20203653646005
2-202025563186
  •  36418, still confidential:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2020852413796
4-20201494819193
3-20202684532269
2-20207664962
  •  21226, full production profile: recent production history --
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN6-2020308189725919194000
    BAKKEN5-20203182527253237991285712033363
    BAKKEN4-202028680261843058593758737221
    BAKKEN3-20203172106350559031300112314225
    BAKKEN2-2020399291835262317225517
    BAKKEN1-20200000000
     
    ******************************
    For The Archives
December 24, 2019:

  • 36421, SI/NC, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 2TFH, Stony Creek,
  • 21226, 996, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 1H, Stony Creek, t4/12; cum 426K 5/19; off line 5/19; remains off line 10/19;
  • 36420, SI/NC, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek,
  • 36419, SI/NC, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 4H, Stony Creek,
  • 36418, SI/NC, Zavanna, Panher 16-21 5TFH XE, Stony Creek,
The graphics:



Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- August 2, 2020

The wells:
  • 36982, conf, CLR, LCU Truman 6-23H1, Long Creek
  • 36746, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26F, Heart Butte, 
  • 36745, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24-26EXH, Heart Butte, 
  • 35719, conf, Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 11-1 3TX, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20204011032
4-20202063949451
3-20202502464344
2-20202054845633
  • 35858, conf, Newfield, Kummer 149-83-3-10-10HLW, Pembroke, 
  • 36747, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26C, Heart Butte, 
  • 36728, conf, CLR, Marshall 7-24H1, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2020096
4-202093206301
3-2020149948612
2-202010260
  • 36420, conf, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH, Stony Creek,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202030159771416121044000
BAKKEN5-2020241170610289167741581014856596
BAKKEN4-2020281507713692249921833517426492
BAKKEN3-2020313507330889546523132629956908
BAKKEN2-2020860205566165159177899563
  • 35857, conf, Newfield, Kummer 149-98-3-10-2HLW, Pembroke, 
  • 36983, conf, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 5-23H1, Long Creek, 
  • 36748, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24-26G, Heart Butte, 
  • 36749, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26D, Heart Butte, 
  • 35143, conf, CLR, Durant 2-12HSL, East Fork,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2020258890
1-20205460
  • 36984, conf, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 4-23H, Long Creek, 
  • 36419, conf, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 4H, Stony Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2020155970
5-20201423620363
4-20202677032053
3-20203653646005
2-202025563186
  • 36160, conf, Hess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-4, Dollar Joe,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20201620
5-20201082722569
4-20201305225734
3-20202413748528
2-20202833346977
  • 37160, conf, Slawson, Motune Federal 1-10-15H, Big Bend, 
  • 36729, conf, CLR, Marshall 6-24H, Little Knife,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-2020187453021
4-2020237338829
3-20202661814379
2-20202860
  • 35891, conf, Whiting, Sondrol 11-29H, Pembroke,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20201353126417
4-20202040829743
3-20201941631889
2-20202338825950
  • 36985, conf, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 3-23H1, Long Creek, 
  • 36758, conf, Whiting, John William 14-12HU, Sanish,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20202596522573
4-20203385218020
3-2020344630
2-2020161770
  • 36348, conf, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-3, Alkali Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2020157750
5-20201995834124
4-20202133748033
3-20202373852418
2-20203029937562
  • 35893, conf, Whiting, Rauser 11-29-3H,  Pembroke,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20202384049679
4-20202745343128
3-20202350337951
2-20206516675
  • 36986, conf, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 2-23HSL, Long Creek, no production data, 
  • 36627, loc, XTO, Arnold 21X-17H, Tobacco Garden, 
  • 36418, SI/A, Zavanna, Panther 16-22 5TFH XE,  Stony Creek,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20203011166990517379000
BAKKEN5-20202896988524151371467513796461
BAKKEN4-2020281643614948244802014319193533
BAKKEN3-2020313048126845419043353032269799
BAKKEN2-2020138289766427729105219622705
  • 36161, drl/A, Hess, GO-Hauge-LW-156-97-2116H-1, Dollar Joe,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2020002260000
BAKKEN5-2020291510015091159393330733008299
BAKKEN4-2020281716717159291993488634612274
BAKKEN3-2020312351623622357184718446225959
BAKKEN2-20202937371370566725965700634202280
BAKKEN1-20200000000

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- August 3, 2020

Monday, August 10, 2020: 27 for the month; 98 for the quarter, 544 for the year:
36982, conf, CLR, LCU Truman 6-23H1
36746, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26F, 
36745, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24-26EXH,  
35719, conf, Oasis, A. Johnson 5298 11-1 3TX,
35858, conf, Newfield, Kummer 149-83-3-10-10HLW, 

Sunday, August 9, 2020: 22 for the month; 93 for the quarter, 539 for the year:
36747, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26C, 
36728, conf, CLR, Marshall 7-24H1
36420, conf, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 3TFH
35857, conf, Newfield, Kummer 149-98-3-10-2HLW, 

Saturday, August 8, 2020: 18 for the month; 89 for the quarter, 535 for the year:
36983, conf, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 5-23H1
36748, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24-26G, 

Friday, August 7, 2020: 16 for the month; 87 for the quarter, 533 for the year:
36749, conf, XTO, FBIR Lawrence 24X-26D,
35143, conf, CLR, Durant 2-12HSL, 

Thursday, August 6, 2020: 14 for the month; 85 for the quarter, 531 for the year:
36984, conf, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 4-23H,
36419, conf, Zavanna, Panther 16-21 4H, 
36160, conf, Hess, GO-Hauge-156-97-2116H-4,

Wednesday, August 5, 2020: 11 for the month; 82 for the quarter, 528 for the year:
37160, conf, Slawson, Motune Federal 1-10-15H,
36729, conf, CLR, Marshall 6-24H, 
35891, conf, Whiting, Sondrol 11-29H, 

Tuesday, August 4, 2020: 8 for the month; 79 for the quarter, 525 for the year:
36985, conf, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 3-23H1
36758, conf, Whiting, John William 14-12HU, 
36348, conf, Hess, EN-Thompson Trust-154-94-1930H-3, 
35893, conf, Whiting, Rauser 11-29-3H, 

Monday, August 3, 2020: 4 for the month; 75 for the quarter, 521 for the year:
36986, conf, CLR, LCU Truman Federal 2-23HSL,

Sunday, August 2, 2020: 3 for the month; 74 for the quarter, 520 for the year:
None.

Saturday, August 1, 2020: 3 for the month; 74 for the quarter, 520 for the year:
36627, conf, XTO, Arnold 21X-17H, 
36418, conf, Zavanna, Panther 16-22 5TFH XE, 
36161, conf, Hess, GO-Hauge-LW-156-97-2116H-1,