Monday, July 27, 2020

New England: $240 / MWh Electricity Today -- July 27, 2020

Link here.

Wow, that imported hydroelectricity is expensive.

This is ISO New England. Regular readers know the issues here.

Look at the marginal cost of electricity today -- over $80 all afternoon, and spiking to $240/MWh. This is, frankly, unbelievable.

Note in the "fuel mix graph" that when the "normal grid" could not keep up, there was spike in hydro-electricity.

Note: the folks in New England get about as much of their electricity from burning oil as from renewable energy when "demand" spikes. See this post.

Section 8-151-94

Last autumn I posted a note about wells sited in section 8-151-94.

This is a screenshot what the area looks like today where the wells in section 8-151-94 are sited.


The horizontals running north are EOG wells; the horizontals running south are Enerplus wells.

Or, the Enerplus wells run south; the EOG wells run north.

EOG, running north:
  • 20550, IA/1,478, EOG, Clarks Creek 10-0805H, Antelope, t6/12; cum 436K 7/19; off line 8/19; remains off line5/20;
  • 22505, IA/1,437, EOG, Clarks Creek 100-0805H, Antelope, t6/12; cum 403K 7/19; off line 8/19; remains of fline 5/20;

  • 33280, loc, Clarks Creek 43-0805H, Antelope,
  • 33279, 3,306, Clarks Creek 42-0805H, Antelope, t10/19; cum 244K 4/20; off line 5/20; a 60K well;
  • 33278, 3,115, Clarks Creek 41-0805H, Antelope, t10/19; cum 271K 4/20; off line 5/20; a 64K 23ll;
  • 33277, loc, Clarks Creek 43-0805H, Antelope,
  • 33276, loc, Clarks Creek 39-0805H, Antelope,
  • 33275, loc, Clarks Creek 38-0805H, Antelope,
  • 34342, loc, Clarks Creek 130-0805H, Antelope,
  • 33334, loc, Clarks Creek 129-0805H, Antelope,

  • 19790, 1,318, EOG, Clarks Creek 3-0805H, Antelope, t6/11; cum 468K 4/20; recently off line for fracking of neighboring wells; back on line 3/20 - 4/20 with jump in production; off line 5/20;
  • 20602, 670, EOG, Clarks Creek 15-0805H, Antelope, t7/12; cum 570K 4/20; recently off line for fracking of neighboring wells; back on line 1/20- 4/20; off line 5/20;

Enerplus, running south, these are the Enerplus Lizard pad and are tracked here. :
  • 34584, Crocodile,
  • 34583, Alligator,
  • 34582, Komodo,
  • 34581, Anole,
  • 34580, Frilled,
  • 34579, Basilisk,
  • 34578, Gecko,
  • 34577, Cayman,
  • 34576, Lizard,
  • 34575, Tegu,

MRO -- Section 14-147-93

The wells:
  • 37739, loc, MRO, Wolf USA 23-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, 2319 FSL 2608 FWL NESW 14-147-93;
  • 37740, loc, MRO, Sylvestor USA 33-14H, Moccasin Creek, 2340 FSL 2617 FWL NWSE 14-147-93;
  • 37741, loc, MRO, Leon USA 33-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, 2362 FSL 2583 FEL NWSE 14-147-93;
  • 37742, loc, MRO, Marian USA 33-14H, Moccasin Creek, 2383 FSL 2549 FEL NWSE 14-147-93;
  • 37743, loc, MRO, Grinnel USA 33-14H, Moccasin Creek, 2405 FSL 2516 FEL NWSE 14-147-93;
  • 37744, loc, MRO, Eugene USA 33-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, 2427 FSL 2482 FEL NWSE 14-147-93;
  • 37745, loc, MRO, Dancing Bull USA 32-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, 2448 FSL 2449 FEL NWSE 14-147-93;
  • 37746, loc, MRO, Pauline USA 32-14H, Moccasin Creek, 2464 FSL 2424 FEL NWSE 14-147-93;
The graphics:



Other wells on the existing pad:
  • 24744, 2,715, MRO, Fox USA 14-1H, Moccasin Creek, t1/15; cum 470K 5/20; did not shut down during the meltdown, 2020;
  • 24745, 1,916, MRO, Melvain Fox USA 14-4TFH, Moccasin Creek, t2/15; cum 555K 5/20; did not shut down during the meltdown, 2020;
  • 28075, 3,255, MRO, Anthony USA 23-14H, Moccasin Creek, t2/15; cum 492K 3/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 5/20;
  • 28076, 3,255, MRO, Hale USA 23-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, t2/15; cum 281K 5/20; off line 1/20 - 3/20; back on line 4/20;
The two wells to the northwest:
  • 20642, 1,137, MRO, Good Bear USA 21-14H, Moccasin Creek, t10/11; cum 394K 5/20; did not shut down during the meltdown, 2020;
  • 20644, 1,221, MRO, Good Bear USA 31-14H, Moccasin Creek, t12/11; cum 244K 5/20; did not shut down during the meltdown, 2020; 

MRO With Eight New Permits -- July 27, 2020

Active rigs:

$41.607/27/202007/27/201907/27/201807/27/201707/27/2016
Active Rigs1259626035

Two permits canceled:
  • Kraken: two Littlefoot LW permits in Mountrail County;
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 34599, drl/A, MRO, McRoberts USA 14-21TFH, t--; cum 101K 3.5 months;  
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20203124319242854207934471033015
BAKKEN4-20203024495245992871630048028610
BAKKEN3-20203031166311876755832389030568
BAKKEN2-20201120764205145371617071015881

Eight new permits, #37739 - #37746, inclusive --
  • 37739, loc, MRO, Wolf USA 23-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, 2319 FSL 2608 FWL NESW 14-147-93;
  • 37740, loc, MRO, Sylvestor USA 33-14H, Moccasin Creek, 2340 FSL 2617 FWL NWSE 14-147-93;
  • 37741, loc, MRO, Leon USA 33-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, 2362 FSL 2583 FEL NWSE 14-147-93;
  • 37742, loc, MRO, Marian USA 33-14H, Moccasin Creek, 2383 FSL 2549 FEL NWSE 14-147-93;
  • 37743, loc, MRO, Grinnel USA 33-14H, Moccasin Creek, 2405 FSL 2516 FEL NWSE 14-147-93;
  • 37744, loc, MRO, Eugene USA 33-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, 2427 FSL 2482 FEL NWSE 14-147-93;
  • 37745, loc, MRO, Dancing Bull USA 32-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, 2448 FSL 2449 FEL NWSE 14-147-93;
  • 37746, loc, MRO, Pauline USA 32-14H, Moccasin Creek, 2464 FSL 2424 FEL NWSE 14-147-93;
The graphics:



Other wells on the existing pad:
  • 24744, 2,715, MRO, Fox USA 14-1H, Moccasin Creek, t1/15; cum 470K 5/20; did not shut down during the meltdown, 2020;
  • 24745, 1,916, MRO, Melvain Fox USA 14-4TFH, Moccasin Creek, t2/15; cum 555K 5/20; did not shut down during the meltdown, 2020;
  • 28075, 3,255, MRO, Anthony USA 23-14H, Moccasin Creek, t2/15; cum 492K 3/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 5/20;
  • 28076, 3,255, MRO, Hale USA 23-14TFH, Moccasin Creek, t2/15; cum 281K 5/20; off line 1/20 - 3/20; back on line 4/20;
The two wells to the northwest:
  • 20642, 1,137, MRO, Good Bear USA 21-14H, Moccasin Creek, t10/11; cum 394K 5/20; did not shut down during the meltdown, 2020;
  • 20644, 1,221, MRO, Good Bear USA 31-14H, Moccasin Creek, t12/11; cum 244K 5/20; did not shut down during the meltdown, 2020; 

Something Screwy Going On In Fargo -- Corona Virus -- July 27, 2020

Updates

August 2, 2020: something is still screwy in Fargo and no one is talking about it, but everybody knows. 
  • 76 deaths in the Fargo area
  • 4 deaths in the Grand Forks area
  • 4 deaths in the Bismark area
  • only 4 deaths in the Bakken where there are real challenges with social distancing on the rigs, and roughnecks coming in from all areas of the country, Texas (the Bakken: Williams, Mountrail, McKenzie, and Dunn counties)

 Original Post

Washington, DC, has just put North Dakota on its list of high-risk states.

Look at the map below.

The numbers in WHITE are the number of active cases; the numbers in RED are the number of deaths. For example, in Williston (Williams County): 75 cases, only two deaths.

Something strange is going on in Fargo (Cass County). It has a huge population and yet it has ONLY 136 active cases, not all that many more than Williston. And yet it has 75 deaths. Even in Grand Forks, only four deaths. Minot, one death. Bismarck has way more cases than Fargo (261cases) and only three deaths. 

The confounding factor is the fact that these are active cases. Maybe Fargo has a huge number of cases overall but they are coming down quickly and there are only 136 now. But that still wouldn't explain the double-digit number of deaths in Fargo (almost triple-digit) compared to low single digits everywhere else. In fact, not one other city in North Dakota, not even Bismarck, has recorded more than three deaths due to the virus, except for Grand Forks with four.

One cannot argue that outlying cities are sending their sickest to Fargo for medical care, because that would also be true of Minot, Grand Forks, and Bismarck where each have huge referral centers for their regions.


Does it mean anything to anybody that the heart of the Bakken, McKenzie County, where exists the highest concentration of oil workers (with associated challenge of social distancing) there have been zero, repeat zero, deaths to date due to coronavirus, compared to 75 in Fargo? What does McKenzie County not have much of: ICUs, and nursing homes.

Forbes On The New ND Refinery -- July 27, 2020

Forbes on the new ND refinery. Story/link sent to me by a reader A "huge" thank you. Archived.

I provided my thoughts to the reader but I will not post those thoughts now. I will post them later, but they will be buried in the blog for the archives. My opinion and 69 cents will get you a cup of senior coffee at McDonald's.

Jump In Production For Likes Eagle, An Enerplus Well In Eagle Nest -- July 27, 2020

The well:
  • 20917, 490, Enerplus, Likes Eagle 2-31H, Eagle Nest, t4/12; cum 233K 9/19; off line 9/19; remains off line 2/20; see production elsewhere; in addition, the Enerplus National Parks pad is tracked here;
Recent production, production in 5/20 extrapolates to18,645 bbls over 30 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20201274686920763089637350594
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-201910870000
BAKKEN9-20193013301568554276716850
BAKKEN8-2019271330126055719951526387
BAKKEN7-2019281294141156319411728127

Anything of interest in the well file? Not really. It was stimulated 4/12/2012 with 25 stages; 2.62 million lbs of proppant.

Frack Is Back -- Rystad -- July 27, 2020

The other day on the blog: "the Bakken is back!."


Today, over at Rigzone: Frac is back.
U.S. fracking is set for its first monthly rise this year, according to a new Rystad Energy analysis.
The independent energy research company outlined that new fracking operations in the country are on track to grow above 400 wells in July, after dropping to a bottom of 325 wells in June. The business said its satellite data shows 246 newly started frac jobs this month, with 96 frac jobs beginning just last week.
According to Rystad, the running rate of frac activity in the Permian has shifted from 15 to 20 wells per week in May and June to 40 to 45 wells per week in the last three weeks.
In all other oil basins - including Bakken, Eagle Ford, Anadarko and Niobrara – Rystad said its latest fracking activity estimates suggest fracking activity is around 35 to 40 wells per week since the beginning of July.
“We therefore estimate that the final July frac count might surpass 400 wells, and will return to levels last seen in April 2020,” [a Rystad spokesman] added.

Notes From All Over -- July 27, 2020

The next big thing: for entrepreneurs and retired teachers. Almost every public school across the country will open "virtually" this autumn; some will transition to in-school / mask-to-mask education; some will continue with distance learning for the time being, perhaps for the entire school year.
Some colleges and universities have already said they will go to distance learning full-time.
Be that as it may, for the parents of elementary, middle school, and to some extent, high school, it will be a challenge for some parents for "home-schooling," for a number of reasons, not all of them "educational."
Sophia's local daycare center has stepped into fill the void. The daycare center will now offer full-time / daily "school" for elementary students affected by virtual learning mandates. The daycare center has the resources (multiple classrooms, a kitchen to provide meals, and teachers already on staff) to provide assistance, monitoring, and more for those virtual-learning children who cannot be left home unattended. 
Here in Texas we have huge mega-churches -- Christian, Muslim, perhaps others. I would think this is a natural for them. The buildings are pretty much empty five days of the week and the congregations are filled with those who would love to teach in such an environment. Even if a "teacher" can't be there five days a week, hours a day, congregants could share responsibilities.
There are very, very strict rules for daycare providers; I don't think there are yet similar rules for "in-your-home" tutors. If not, this provides an opportunity for retired teachers to gain additional income requiring very little in terms of resources, except, perhaps time.
Speaking of entrepreneurs: our middle school granddaughter made $450 over the weekend using Angie's list, Craig's list, or whatever other social media she had available. It was pure profit. I won't get into the details right now, but the technology teenagers have these days is incredible Some are finding ways to monetize their skills.

What's not to like? I ordered a couple of things on Saturday, two days ago. Today I received this in my e-mail. I have Amazon deliver packages to my daughter's house down the road since it is a safer location for delivery. Definitely better than driving to Target, carrying things home in plastic bags, etc., etc., etc. Plastic bags are so "yesterday" as we've discussed before.


*******************************
What Were They Thinking?

All these folks have been kept in lock down and now all of a sudden they are all brought together. What did they expect?

Headline:
Marlins cancel Monday's game as fourteen players, staff infected with Covid-19 just days after season kickoff. -- ZeroHedge.
Actually the headline is not quite correct. The fourteen are not necessarily "infected with Covid-19"; they have simply tested positive. Not only are all medical diagnostic tests subject to false positives, tests for Covid-19 apparently have a much higher incidence of false positives. In addition, is there a difference between "infected with" and "asymptomatic carriers"? I don't know.

We have asymptomatic carriers, incubatory carriers, convalescent carriers, and "healthy carriers," which apparently is a subset of "asymptomatic carriers." And not all of these folks actually transmit disease, apparently.

Back to the Marlins. Baseball can quickly make up canceled / postponed games. Double-headers and even triple-headers, I suppose. NASCAR has been doing that: back-to-back races; multiple races at same race course. The PGA can't do this: a tournament lasts four days. Nor can the NFL do this. The physical stress is way too hard on the players -- they can only get in one game per week. Sixteen regular season games; if the franchise player -- generally the quarterback --  and significant number of players around him are quarantined for fourteen days (two weeks), two games might not be played, possibly three. Those games cannot be made up without extending the season.

The bigger issue: I think folks forgot what the original intent of the lock down was for. So, we'll see.

******************************************
Meanwhile, A Photo Worth A Thousand Words

This is how most people in our area wear their mask, also:


I'm not saying it's good, bad, or indifferent, it's just a fact.

Closer Look At The CLR Steele Federal Well That Comes Off Confidential List Today -- July 27, 2020

The well:
  • 31523, SI/A-->conf-->SI/A,  CLR, Steele Federal 9-24H, Banks, t--; cum 15K over 14 days; 3-section lateral; fracked 12/2/19 - 12/13/19; 10.6 million gallons of water; 86.88% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06511; cum 140K 5/20;
  • the Steele Federal wells are tracked here;
From the file report:
  • a three-section lateral
  • middle Bakken
  • planned TD: 22,621' MD
  • Cyclone, May 14, 2019, 
  • vertical operations completed with three BHAs
    • official logging depth, 8,800' MD on June 19
  • curve
    • began at 01:30 hours, June 21, 2019
    • completed, cased on June 22, 2019
  • lateral:
    • drilled out of the shoe on June 23, 2019
    • drilled with one BHA
    • reached TD of 22,565' on June 26, 2019, at 14:32 hours
  • targeted zone: 20 feet
    • within the targeted zone 100% of the 11,082' of open hole within the prospective pay zone, 
  • background gases average 800 units throughout; 1100 units by 16,000' MD
    • highest gas show was 4,629 units at 17,450' 
Production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-20203130524305932804876684762780
BAKKEN4-20202826336262702532652262519160
BAKKEN3-20202531393315442350360492604920
BAKKEN2-2020293620336079389156945368968485
BAKKEN1-20201415149148701898629278254493829

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- July 27, 2020

I'm shocked! I'm shocked! Accusations of bribery among Mexican politicians back in 2014 when energy reform bills were passed to open the country's energy program to private enterprise. 

OPEC basket, link here: drops to $43.38.

***************************************************** 
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


$41.587/27/202007/27/201907/27/201807/27/201707/27/2016
Active Rigs1359626035

Wells coming off confidential list -- Monday, July 27, 2020: 67 for the month; 67 for the quarter, 513 for the year:
  • 36631, drl/NC, XTO, Tobacco Garden 21X-17D,
  • 36492, drl/IA, Hess, TI-Stenbak-158-95-2526H-6, Tioga, first production 1/20; t--; cum 23K 3/20; off line 4/20; remains off line 5/20;
Sunday, July 26, 2020: 65 for the month; 65 for the quarter, 511 for the year:
  • 31523, SI/A-->conf-->SI/A,  CLR, Steele Federal 9-24H, Banks, t--; cum 15K over 14 days; 3-section lateral; fracked 12/2/19 - 12/13/19; 10.6 million gallons of water; 86.88% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06511; cum 140K 5/20;
Saturday, July 25, 2020: 64 for the month; 64 for the quarter, 510 for the year:
  • 36491, drl/A, Hess, TI-Stenbak-158-95-2526H-5, Tioga, first production 1/20; t--; cum 38K 5/20;
RBN Energy: is the northeast gasmarket headed for a fall meltdown?
U.S. Northeast natural gas production has surged nearly 1.5 Bcf/d in the past four weeks as wells that were shut-in this spring came back to life. The supply gains have been matched by strong intraregional demand, which has posted at or near record highs on a monthly average basis in recent months. But the returning supply volumes raise the question: what happens when summer cooling demand begins to fade? Storage will only be able to absorb so much, as regional storage inventories are already well above year-ago levels and the historical average for this time of year. That leaves flows out of the region as the only other outlet for excess supply, and those may be limited as well, as pipeline issues and drastically reduced downstream demand from LNG exports have stymied outflows. So, is the Northeast gas market headed for a shoulder-season meltdown? Appalachian gas supply prices this month already have weakened relative to the national benchmark Henry Hub, and these dynamics suggest there is more tumult ahead. Today, we consider what’s in store for the Northeast gas market this fall given the latest fundamentals.
To understand the most recent gas market shifts in the U.S. Northeast — and their near-term implications — it’s worth putting them in the context of what’s transpired in the past few months
As we discussed last month, gas prices were feeling the pressure of oversupply conditions well before COVID-19 and the oil price collapse. Appalachian producers last year already had trimmed their rig counts and capital spending budgets in response to sub-$2.00/MMBtu gas prices in the region and overall weakness in Henry Hub benchmark futures prices. Then came the mild winter that suppressed storage withdrawals and left a hefty surplus in storage compared with previous years. That was followed by the pandemic-induced stay-at-home directives and lockdowns, which disrupted gas consumption. And, by May, there was also the disruption of another major demand “sink” for domestic production, including from the Marcellus/Utica — U.S. LNG exports — as an existing global surplus of LNG combined with lockdowns abroad to slash global demand, wiping out margins for cargo liftings from U.S. ports, and leading to widespread cargo cancellations.