Wednesday, July 8, 2020

It's A Crazy, Crazy, Crazy World -- July 8, 2020

Pretty bleak:


Pretty brave:


Pretty bizarre:

Twenty-Six Permits Renewed; Equinor Cancels Six Permits; Only One New Permit -- July 8, 2020

Gasoline demand, link here:


Active rigs:


$40.887/8/202007/08/201907/08/201807/08/201707/08/2016
Active Rigs1059645630

One new permit, #37705 --
  • Operator: Sinclair Oil & Gas
  • Field: Mary (Dunn County)
  • Comments: 
    • Sinclair has a permit for a Bighorn well in Mary oil field, NESE 31-147-97, 1846' FSL and 974' FEL
The following wells were released from confidential status, in addition to the ones reported earlier:
  • 23471, PNC, Equinor, Martin ..., Rosebud,
  • 23627, PNC, Equinor, Michael Owan ... TFH ..., Painted Woods,
  • 26061, PNC, Equinor, Martin ..., Rosebud,
  • 30306, PNC, Equinor, Olson ..., Painted Woods,
  • 30307, PNC, Equinor, Olson ... TFH ..., Painted Woods,
  • 31234, PNC, Equinor, Raymond ..., Ragged Butte,
Change of operator:
  • 21043, Pankake 157-99-6A-7-1H, from Bruin to Crescent Point Energy
  • 35420, Dragseth 16-1 SWD, from Kraken to Hydra Services
SWD: Hess completed three SWD wells; two in Williams County; one in Mountrail County

Twenty-six permits renewed:
  • BR (12): three Lillibridge permits in McKenzieCounty; two Patton permits in Dunn County; two Sandie permits in McKenzie County; two Shafer permits in McKenzie County; and, three West Kellogg permits in McKenzie County
  • Rimrock Oil & Gas (6): six Skunk Creek permits in Dunn County;
  • Hess (4): four BB-State A permits in McKenzie County;
  • CLR (4): four Pasadena Federal permits in McKenzie County;
******************************
Sinclair Oil & Gas

Proposed location for new well (see above):


Bucc-ees: The Next Big Thing -- July 8, 2020

For the archives, bankruptcies and bailouts due to Covid-19 are tracked here. Yahoo!Finance provides an update at this link.

The big question I have: how "dead" will the shopping mall retail experience be this Christmas? We may very well see a snowball effect between then and now, the snowball being bankruptices.

People joke about ordering from Amazon, but it's no longer a joke. On-line one has Walmart, Target, and Amazon, just to name a few. I routinely send non-perishables to families and friends, which, of course, then becomes a habit and before I know it, I start ordering non-perishables for myself rather than go to the local grocery story. Anyway, I'm rambling.

From the linked Yahoo!Finance article:
Long struggling, debt-laden Ascena retail is reportedly nearing a bankruptcy filing this week and plans to shut 1,200 of its 3,000 stores. The filing would follow years of aggressive, ill-timed acquisition by the company of mall-based apparel brands such as Ann Taylor. With the mall under severe stress during the COVID-19 pandemic, Ascena’s model has totally fallen apart.
This is what interests me: many of these companies that fail were failing anyway; Covid-19 was simply the final nail in the coffin. So far, with the exception of seeing folks losing their jobs, I'm not particularly "worked-up" about these bankruptcies.

Another one:
GNC has walked through death’s door after knocking on it for years. The 85-year-old vitamin seller filed for bankruptcy in late June after years of battling waning sales and a debt load north of $1 billion. GNC plans to shutter up to 1,200 stores across the U.S. The company operates more than 5,800 stores.
From the linked article, not one company in this list surprises me. What surprises me how long many of these companies lasted. In many cases, Walmart, Target, and Amazon were going to shut them down eventually.
I'm curious: does any company listed in that chart above surprise anyone? Several must be regional; I had not even heard of them. Maybe Neiman Marcus is a surprise simply because it's not the kind of store where its customers would migrate to Walmart. LOL. Something tells me that the rich have simply found other places to spend their money. [Later: with regard to Nieman Marcus, I was way wrong. A reader tactfully explained that Nieman Marcus had for years a huge debt risk; leveraged private equity debt -- so much like others -- had nothing to do with customer loyalty.]

Roots has an interesting history; I had completely forgotten about the "negative heels" fad decades ago. I am surprised someone built a franchise based on that fad. 

New business models will come out of the Covid-19 experience. I think Bucc-ees is an excellent example. It will never get as big as Walmart but it may certainly become a lot bigger than folks can imagine. Bucc-ees is, without question, a company that should partner with Tesla, or GM, or Toyota or Ford. The automobile companies could provide the capital, Bucc-ees the "know-how." 

Two factoids:
  • the average amount of time one spends at Bucc-ees: twenty-eight minutes, 32 seconds.
  • the average amount of time one spends recharging an EV: twenty-eight minutes, 32 seconds. 
  • coincidence? I think now.
  • fake numbers? I think so -- but probably not far off.
By the way, the blog does track "the next big thing."

If Bucc-ees goes public, I'm all in.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

It will be interesting how the "fast food franchise" comes out of this pandemic. Might we see more outdoor seating -- that would work in the sunbelt, and it would during the traveling season north of the sunbelt. 


Oil, Oil, Oil -- July 8, 2020

Wow, wow, wow, completely unexpected:


Some of these items have been previously posted.

Bad, bad news for Saudi Arabia: US oil exports can "break-even" at $30/bbl.

More bad news for Saudi Arabia: some US shale is profitable at $40/bbl. And that "some" increases over time.

Saudi Arabia: needs $53-oil to clear current accounts; needs $82-oil to balance budget.

Raising prices: Saudi Arabia raising OSP to US, China. Interestingly enough, a day after that report published, OPEC basket dropped sightly.

Deep, deep trouble. PEMEX: really, really, broke. Now asking to pay creditors with IOUs. Link here.

Petroleos Mexicanos’s nearly $105 billion in debt already makes it the biggest borrower of any oil company in the world. And it’s accruing more.

Pemex, as the Mexican state oil company is known, is asking some of its contractors if they can wait until next year to be paid money that is owed to them now ...
Three contractors that are being asked to defer payment are waiting on $115 million in payouts ... could easily total billions of dollars.
According to the people, contractors enter their invoices on Pemex’s website and receive a confirmation number and an estimated time of payment. The invoice number, known as “Copade,” is no longer being issued in some cases.
Peak oil? What peak oil? 

Equinor makes another significant North Sea discovery; link here.
Equinor ASA revealed Wednesday that it has discovered gas and condensate in exploration well 30/2-5 S Atlantis, which is situated by the Kvitebjorn field in the Norwegian section of the North Sea.
The proven reserves of the find are estimated to be between 19 and 63 million barrels of oil equivalent, according to Equinor.
 West Coast LNG export terminal approved by US DOE, link here:

The U.S. Department of Energy issued a final long-term order to authorize exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from a project in Oregon that they expect will help the U.S. sell gas to the fastest-growing import market, Asia.
The U.S. Department of Energy authorized exports of up to 1.08 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas from the proposed Jordan Cove LNG Terminal in Coos Bay, Oregon, owned by Canada’s Pembina Pipeline Corporation. This is about 20 million boepd.

New Episode Of Intellectual Froglegs Now Airing -- July 8, 2020

Link here.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- July 8, 2020

EIA, link here:
  • US crude oil in inventory: 539.2 million bbls;
    • at 18% above the five-year-average, this is the highest I've seen, on a percentage basis;
    • how will shutting down the DAPL affect this;
    • the five-year average is already very "fat"
  • change week-over-week: increased by a significant 5.7 million bbls
  • refineries are operating at 77.5% of capacity; operating at historic lows
  • imports: crude oil imports averaged 7.4 million bpd which is a whopping increase of 1.4 million bpd -- more than double of what I had been seeing
    • over the past four weeks, crude oil imports had averaged about 6.6 million bpd but that average is going to trend high
    • imports are still 8.5% less than the same four-week period last year 
    • oil markets starving for heavy oil from Russia, Saudi Arabia; link here;
  • jet fuel supplied: down 57.2% same same four-week period last year
Re-balancing:
Week
Date of Report=
Change
Million Bbls Storage

Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9

Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5

Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2

Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0

Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5

Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4

Week 71
April 8, 2020
15.2
484.4

Week 72
April 15, 2020
19.2
503.6

Week 72
April 22, 2020
15.0
518.6

Week 73
April 29, 2020
9.0
527.6

Week 74
May 6, 2020
4.6
532.2

Week 75
May 13, 2020
-0.7
531.5

Week 76
May 20, 2020
-5.0
526.5

Week 77
May 28, 2020
7.9
534.4

Week 78
June 3, 2020
-2.1
532.3

Week 79
June 10, 2020
5.7
538.1

Week 80
June 17, 2020
1.2
539.3
15%
Week 81
June 24, 2020
1.4
540.7
16%
Week 82
July 1, 2020
-7.2
533.5
15%
Week 83
July 8, 2020
5.7
539.2
18%

Imports:
Crude Oil Imports




Week (week-over-week)
Date of Report
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change (millions of bbls)
Four-week period comparison
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174

Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127

Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422

Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070

Week 4
April 8, 2020
5.9
-0.173

Week 5
April 15, 2020
5.7
-0.194

Week 6
April 22, 2020
5.6
-0.700

Week 7
April 29, 2020
5.3
0.365
-19.700%
Week 8
May 6, 2020
5.7
0.410

Week 9
May 13, 2020
5.4
-0.321
-26.100%
Week 10
May 20, 2020
5.2
-0.194

Week 11
May 28, 2020
7.2
2.000
-16.400%
Week 12
June 3, 2020
6.2
-1.000
-18.300%
Week 13
June 10, 2020
6.4
0.000
-13.300%
Week 14
June 17, 2020
6.6
-0.222
-10.000%
Week 15
June 24, 2020
6.5
-0.102
-11.600%
Week 16
July 1, 2020
6.5
-0.600
-11.300%
Week 17
July 8, 2020
7.4
1.400
-8.500%

Jet fuel:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Date of Report
Change
Week 0
3/7/2020
-12.80%
Week 1
3/14/2020
-12.60%
Week 2
3/21/2020
-8.90%
Week 3
3/28/2020
-16.40%
Week 4
4/4/2020
-0.22%
Week 5
4/11/2020
-39.70%
Week 6
4/18/2020
-53.60%
Week 7
4/24/2020
-61.60%
Week 8
5/1/2020
-66.60%
Week 9
5/8/2020
-68.50%
Week 10
5/15/2020
-67.90%
Week 11
May 22, 2020
-66.60%
Week 12
June 3, 2020
-68.70%
Week 13
June 10, 2020
-63.70%
Week 14
June 17, 2020
-62.30%
Week 15
June 24, 2020
-62.50%
Week 16
July 1, 2020
-60.00%
Week 17
July 8, 2020
-57.20%