Friday, July 3, 2020

Breaking News: 16-Year-Old Granddaughter Passes Her Driver's License Test -- July 3, 2020

Governor Abbot of Texas declares state holiday to continue through tomorrow and the city of Grapevine, TX, has scheduled fireworks for tomorrow to celebrate Arianna's big day.

At least that's what I'm telling Sophia. LOL.

And, yes, she successfully completed the parallel parking portion of the exam.

Clearing Out The In-Box For The Archives -- July 3, 2020

Re-posting one of the best job reports ever:
Report: US employers added almost 5 million jobs in June, 2020. That's more job creation than any president in history. Five million jobs added in one month. President Trump able to claim all-time new employment records. LOL. It's amazing how bandanas were the answer. If we had only known.

Jobs report, link here:
  • prior: 1.480 million
  • revised: 1.482 million (note the fake precision)
  • consensus: 1.400 million
  • actual: 1.427 million
Market response: Dow surges; up over 400 points in pre-market trading
Bad timing: Rachel Maddow predicted the June jobs report to be "absolutely terrible"; link here: https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbcs-rachel-maddow-predicted-that-junes-jobs-report-would-be-absolutely-terrible.

Other items of interest for the archives posted below.

Oil, Cushing, glut: near-record oil stockpiles at US Gulf Coast pressure prices of domestic grades. Reuters, July 2, 2020. 
  • PADD III, stocks along the Gulf Coast
  • WTI at Houston for delivery from next month (August) to June next year (2021) ranged about a $1 premium over US crude futures
  • had traded at nearly a $4 premium just two months ago (May, 2020)
Oil, refineries, global: sweeter, lighter, cheaper -- refiners seek oil to meet rising gasoline demand. Reuters, July 2, 2020.

Oil, pipelines, Canada: Canadian Supreme Court removes "last" barrier to TransMountain Pipeline.

Investing: Kiplinger most reliable stocks for retirees updated in July, 2020.

Flashback: Saudi Arabia's PIF and Vision 2030 --
Pandemic:
  • the protests of two to four weeks ago did not contribute to the surge of cases now being reported; link here;  
Farm report:
  • USDA crop report shocker sends corn futures surging. Link here.  
Chicago corn futures surged 8% in the last two sessions after a massive reduction to the U.S. government's acreage estimate, reported Reuters. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's crop report on Tuesday showed farmers planted 92 million acres of corn in 1H20, which was a huge miss in expectations and 5 million acres below the USDA's March forecast of 97 million acres
This was the largest miss in a March-to-June corn acreage crop report since 1983 resulting in an 8% surge in corn futures trading in Chicago. 
[Comment: we certainly know how accurate government estimates are these days.]
Economy, global, Japan: assets in world's largest pension fund plummet --
The world’s biggest pension fund posted a record loss in the first three months of 2020 after the coronavirus pandemic sparked a global market rout in the period.
Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund lost 11%, or 17.7 trillion yen ($164.7 billion), in the three months ended March, it said in Tokyo on Friday. The decline in value was the steepest based on comparable data back to April 2008, reducing the fund’s total assets to 150.63 trillion yen. Foreign stocks were the worst performing investment, followed by domestic equities.
True patriot, TDS: more concerned about President Trump than the country. Link here. I doubt Trump is having any nightmares.

Two New Monster Wells Posted -- July 3, 2020

Two new monster wells added to the "3rd generation" list:
  • 32514, 1,355, EOG, Mandaree 31-0706H, t12/16; cum 633K 5/20; off line 5/20; middle Bakken; initial production:
    BAKKEN4-20172944677445773220669172628835826
    BAKKEN3-20173147276469933658765298613863409
    BAKKEN2-20172851308512144853782038788442739
    BAKKEN1-201731577795781454033845356764416388
    BAKKEN12-20162945898457255025237783354021915
  • 32513, 1,910, EOG, Mandaree 24-0706H, t12/16; cum 546K 5/20; off line 5/20; permitted as a Three Forks B1, but later changed to a middle Bakken well;
    BAKKEN8-201731233752346310197583553733720527
    BAKKEN7-2017311887418737870435227296375120
    BAKKEN6-2017301910219222690831971258225667
    BAKKEN5-201731245102436511693426023013411986
    BAKKEN4-20172625136253121400439692359483334
    BAKKEN3-20173147856475413564867131631193509
    BAKKEN2-20172845724456434637872906700212432
    BAKKEN1-201731529645304945166674415391613022
    BAKKEN12-20162756103558924028942152374274291
Graphics:



The other two wells on that pad:
  • 19004, 1,440, EOG, Mandaree 12-07H, Squaw Creek, t11/10; cum 204K 3/20; remains off line 5/20; fracked; tested 11/19/2010; 15 stages; 1.1 million lbs proppant; middle Bakken;
  • 32512, IA/1,505, EOG, Mandaree 30-0706H, Squaw Creek, t12/16; cum 310K 9/19; off line 10/19; remains off line 5/20; tested 11/09/2016; 37 stages; 16.9 million lbs; middle Bakken; look at the original production:
BAKKEN11-201730645063751064919361157203160
BAKKEN10-201731714771771202625558203734701
BAKKEN9-201730841085291270821136143646301
BAKKEN8-201731128571300918016385012450213508
BAKKEN7-20173114243141801560818544154192653
BAKKEN6-20173016496165072064634840281076248
BAKKEN5-20173116511164612036627573194007691
BAKKEN4-20173020420203912499329045261492409
BAKKEN3-20173123147229903346839045365182052
BAKKEN2-20172220949209613458931830304801055
BAKKEN1-201731450754514564600568024534910950
BAKKEN12-2016274691846741590322910427703967

A Lousy First Generation Encore Well Shows 15-Fold Jump In Production -- July 3, 2020

With things so slow in the Bakken it's hard to find much to report.

The Squaw Creek wells are tracked her but this post has not been updated in a long, long time. 

This well is of some interest:
  • 18766, 1,392, XTO/Denbury/Encore, Fettig 24-22H, Squaw Creek, t11/10; cum 101K 5/20; FracFocus shows no frack data; jump in production following fracking of WPX wells; to the best of my knowledge, no recent significant work on this well to account for jump in production;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN5-202031591163192452632505568
BAKKEN4-202030601857232574644005707
BAKKEN3-202021395240472355425503676
BAKKEN2-202010002800
BAKKEN1-20203275025634120329
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20191011644412824602
BAKKEN6-2019293634309370800
BAKKEN5-20193138936910575700
BAKKEN4-20193038231210472107

Graphic:

Wells That I No Longer Track -- Page 15

For first fourteen pages in this series, see this link; scroll to bottom of that page.

I no longer track these wells as wells that need to be followed up:
September 29, 2019: #19693 -- 4,000 bbls on one day for several months. Danks. (Posted below, also.) At 2,000 bbls/month over one day each month, 11/19. Consistently 2,000 bbls/monthfor quite some time.

August 20, 2019: #20839; IA, 11/19; remains off line 2/20; back on line 3/20; unremarkable. 

September 11, 2016: check on production profile #21733 when the following four wells are fracked: #32412 - #32415, inclusive. And here. #21733 went off line 12/19; remains off line 3/20. #32412 is now SI/NC, 3/20. I assume the same for the others.

April 11, 2016: two Anschutz wells, now Lime Rock Resources wells, were never fracked; now Lime Rock Resources has two new locations on the same pad; it will be interesting to see if they frack these wells. As of 8/18, the two new wells were still LOC; #18644 was updated. Not much change as of 6/17.
  • 30467, loc, Lime Rock Resources, State 4-25-36H-144-97, API: 33-025-02818, Cabernet,
  • 30468, loc, Lime Rock Resources, Kary 6-24-13H-144-97, API: 33-025-02819, Cabernet,
November 26, 2015: Oasis requested permission to drill 21 wells on a 640-acre unit (one section); currently has 12 horizontals in that section. Curious if any halo effect but most recent wells drilled to depth but now fracked (SI/NC). No new data as of 8/18; production data updated, nothing remarkable, 8/18;

The HBU Marmon Federal Wells -- July 3, 2020

The permits / wells:
  • 18143, 1,065, HBU Marmon 41X-12, API: 33-105-01735, Hofflund, t9/09; cum 191K 4/20; off line 5/20;
  • 37678, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13AXD-S, Hofflund,
  • 37679, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13E-S, Hofflund,
  • 37680, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13A-S, Hofflund,
  • 37681, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13F2-S, Hofflund,
  • 37682, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13B-S, Hofflund,
  • 37683, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13AXD-W, Hofflund,
  • 37684, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13E-W, Hofflund,
  • 37685, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13A-W, Hofflund,
  • 37686, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13F2-W, Hofflund,
  • 37687, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13B-W, Hofflund,
  • 37688, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13G-W, Hofflund,
  • 37689, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13C-W, Hofflund,
  • 37690, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13H2-W, Hofflund,
  • 37691, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13D-W, Hofflund,
  • 37692, conf, HBU Marmon Federal 24X-13HXE-W, Hofflund,
***********************************
Production and File Report: 18143

Production:
  • from the outset, a lousy well; max production, 14K in first 29 days, 9/09
  • typical Bakken decline
  • no evidence this well has been re-fracked as of 4/20
From the file report:
  • most recent sundry form, received May 2, 2019, name change: from Marmon 41X-12 to HBU Marmon 41X-12;
  • last note before that one, December  8, 2018: stripper well determination;
  • April 7, 2017: workover;
  • May 15, 2013: company's intent to re-frack;
  • sundry form frack data:
    • lateral 1 open hole
    • 1 million lbs 20/40 sand and 21K bbls frack fluid; 
    • average treating pressure was 7,968 psi; max of 9,006 psi
    • ten stages using swell packers
    • September 3, 2009: IP: 1,065 bbls
    • target: Three Forks
  • geological well report
    • spud: June 30, 2009
    • designed as a single lateral in the Three Forks;
    • secondary zones of interest: Ratcliffe, Mission Canyon, and middle Bakken;
    • Three Forks drilled at a measured depth of 10,469', TVD = 10,589'; 34' low to the prognosis and 34' low to the Marmon 9-1 control well;
    • initially, the gas readings were generally poor, averaging 100 to 200 units, except from 11,350' to 11,500' where fair to good shows from 500 to 2000 units were recorded
    • from 11,800' to 14,175' gas shows were generally good averaging 500to 4000+ with connection kicks reaching 5000 to 6000 units
    • 2' to 5' flare
  • Ratcliffe and Mission Canyon not productive in this well
************************************
From The Daily Activity Report
July 2, 2020

Fifteen new permits, #36578 - #37692, inclusive:
  • Operator: XTO
  • Field: Hofflund (Williams County)
  • Comments:  
    • I believe the daily activity report is incorrect
      • the DAR says these wells are sited in section 13-154-96; if so, they are being sited under water
      • in addition, the legal description for #37685 is incorrect; the scout ticket is correct;
    • it's much more likely these wells will be sited in section 13-154-95
    • XTO has permits for fifteen wells in section 13-154-96  (sic) -- see comments above
    • Hofflund Bakken Unit (HBU)
      • fourteen of them are Hofflund Bakken unit wells; one had the same "family" name, but not preceded by the HBU designation; it was in the Alkali Creek oil field;
      • one long single row of pads, running almost due north/south, but slightly SW to NE, very slightly off the N/S line
      • running from the SESW quadrant to the NESW quadrant
      • they are already on confidential list but based on several parameters, it's my hunch they will all run south into section 24
      • thirteen will be 1280-acre spacing
      • two will be 2560-acre unit line wells
      • it looks like: a mix of middle Bakken well and Three Forks wells
  • graphics: