Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Notes From All Over -- The Glamour Edition -- Midnight -- June 30, 2020

One of the things I like best about "the blog" is discovering other (much more) interesting blogs. I used to link them at the sidebar at the right. The bar was set high to be linked, and then, it appears, I lost interest in such blogs.

Until tonight.

It's a long, long story and it's not worth the time to go through it but the dots start connecting with White Mischief, linked at the sidebar at the right. The dots led to an interesting blog -- a very interesting blog, James Sherwood. It appears the last entry was back in 2018, having started in 2010, but that still provides a lot of interesting reading.

It has nothing to do with energy. 

Link here.

******************************
Flashback

On November 11, 2009, I posted this:
"When in the end, the day came on which I was going away, I learned the strange learning that things can happen which we ourselves cannot possibly imagine, either beforehand, or at the time when they are taking place, or afterwards when we look back on them." -- Karen Blixen (Isak Dinesen), Out of Africa, 1937.
And, now, here in 2020, I'm back in my Out of Africa phase.

I Thought I Heard You Call My Name, Jessie Colter

Could President Make It A Twofer? -- June 30, 2020

I'm being told this one will be their biggest in history, with 1,000 entrants already.

President Trump will be in the area; could he make it a twofer? A rodeo followed by a visit to Mount Rushmore?


Sempra Energy -- June 30, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Earlier today:
Sempra Energy over at SeekingAlpha:
Sempra Energy raises earnings guidance, completes exit from South America.

Sempra Energy issues upside earnings guidance for FY 2020, now seeing adjusted EPS of $7.20-$7.80 from prior guidance of $6.70-$7.50 and above analyst consensus estimate $7.06.

Sempra also says the completion of the sale of its Chilean businesses concludes the exit from all South American operations, resulting in $5.82B in combined cash proceeds.
Tonight, after that report came out, link here. Remember, there are almost 3,000 companies listed on the NYSE:

API: Largest Crude Oil Draw This Year -- June 30, 2020

API weekly estimate:
  • largest crude draw this year -- link here;
  • forecast: an inventory draw of less than a million bbls
  • a draw of 8.156 million bbls for the week ending June 26, 2020
  • EIA data tomorrow
Closing prices after data released:
  • OPEC basket drops -- this is terrible news for Saudi Aramco, Prince MbS; link here;
  • WTI up a bit

The MRO C-E-2H-O Pad In Reunion Bay

The wells:
  • 37673, loc, Herman USA 24-31TFH, Reunion Bay, 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-151-93;
  • 37674, loc, Hartson USA 24-31H, Reunion Bay, 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-151-93;
  • 37675, loc, Etherington USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-151-93;
  • 37676, loc, Copeland USA 34-31H, Reunion Bay, 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-151-93;
  • 37677, loc, Ortman USA 34-31TFH, Reunion Bay, 1280-acre unit, sections 30/31-151-93;
Five new permits, #37673 - #37677, inclusive -- from the June 30, 2020, daily activity report --
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for a five-well pad sited in SWSE 31-151-93, Reunion Bay, all 407' FSL and about 1700' FEL
      • Herman USA: TFH
      • Hartson USA: MB
      • Etherington USA: TFH
      • Copeland USA: MB
      • Ortman USA: TFH
General area for the proposed 5-well MRO pad:


Which Apple Tablet -- iPad -- Is Best? -- June 30, 2020

A reader wrote to tell me that a family member needs to upgrade to a new Apple tablet, and asking what I thought.

Here is my not-ready-for-prime-time reply. I'm posting it because I'm curious if others might want to weigh in.
Wow, that's a tough one -- knowing nothing about the user and what the tablet will be used for, but here goes.

There are so many variables and the "personality" of the user; where they plan to use the iPad, etc.

To begin, there are three choices:
  • iPad Pro -- high end
  • iPad Air -- some say a compromise between high end and low end; I think it's much better than a compromise; I think it's high end;
  • iPad -- low end, the "original" as it were
You can see I did not even consider the fourth Apple choice, iPad mini.

1. If they plan to use it as a computer in addition to the tablet, then one has to move up to the iPad Pro.

2. If one just wants the tablet, then either the iPad Air or the iPad.

3. I never thought I would want a "big" tablet, but now my 10.2 inch (or whatever size it is) almost seems too small. I find I prefer "larger the better" when it comes to tablets.

4. iPad Air comes in one size, apparently, 10.5.

5. iPad Pro comes in larger (11-inch) and largest (12.9-inch).

6. It seems the iPad (10.2 inch) is starting to show its age.
7. The iPad Pro seems to be for the really, really serious user who really plans on using the tablet for a computer as much as a tablet. Since I do my heavy "lifting" on a laptop, I don't need the iPad Pro.

8. That comes down to the iPad Air for me. Only one size, so that helps.

9. Most important after you decide what model to get: how much memory. I would not want less than 256 GB which appears "basic" for the iPad Air, so that helps.

10. As long as I have my iPhone, I have never needed cellular for my laptop or tablet. Adding another cellular device simply adds an unneeded monthly expense for me and dealing with the phone company. So unless there is a reason for cellular, I would stick with wi-fi only. If price and setting up cellular with the phone company is not an issue, then it would be up to the user whether they feel cellular is necessary.

11. Most important after deciding on the tablet: get the latest version of the Apple Pencil. As far as I know, that's 2nd generation. But the Apple Pencil -- even though it's expensive -- is a must have. I bought the tablet first and then a year or so later got the Apple Pencil -- helped flatten the curve on initial cost. That's an option. Get the family member the tablet now and once the individual is used to it, surprise him/her with the $129 pencil.

12. I'm probably missing something, but that's where I'm at, at the moment.

13. It's funny, even if money were not an issue, I'm not sure I would want the iPad Pro -- I really don't know. My hunch is it's the greatest thing since sliced bread, but I do my heavy "lifting," as I said, on the laptop, and then use the tablet mostly for surfing the net while laying down in bed.

14. Now, let's see what the pros suggest:

Well, that article didn't help me. Simply re-stated the techs. It still comes down to the user preference and what they plan to use the tablet for.
I'm curious to your thoughts (much abbreviated, I'm sure) as you go through the process.

So, there you have it.

iPad Air, wi-fi only, at least 256 GB (which is basic model), and an Apple pencil.
And get it at Costco, if available.

Daily Activity Report Pending; SRE Raises Earnings Guidance -- June 30, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Sempra Energy over at SeekingAlpha:
Sempra Energy raises earnings guidance, completes exit from South America.

Sempra Energy issues upside earnings guidance for FY 2020, now seeing adjusted EPS of $7.20-$7.80 from prior guidance of $6.70-$7.50 and above analyst consensus estimate $7.06.

Sempra also says the completion of the sale of its Chilean businesses concludes the exit from all South American operations, resulting in $5.82B in combined cash proceeds.
******************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$39.666/30/202006/30/201906/30/201806/30/201706/30/2016
Active Rigs1061675830

Five new permits, #37673 - #37677, inclusive --
  • Operator: MRO
  • Field: Reunion Bay (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
    • MRO has permits for a five-well pad sited in SWSE 31-151-93, Reunion Bay, all 407' FSL and about 1700' FEL
    • it should be noted that the scout ticket for permit #37672 has still not been posted;
General area for the proposed 5-well MRO pad:


FaceBook Video Of Downed Power Lines In Mountrail County -- June 30, 2020

Not sure if y'all can access this on FaceBook, but if  you can, a video of downed powerlines in Mountrail County near New Town, ND,  after big storm last night (June 29, 2020).

Another reason for on-site solar energy for oil well pads. 

Link here: https://www.facebook.com/kristi.r.faulkner/videos/10219130341303588/.

New Town is about 50 miles east-northeast of Watford City, just across the river, in Mountrail County.

King5 video here.

FreightWaves story and video here.

The New Minnkota Power Permit In North Dakota -- June 30, 2020

Note the Minnkota Power permit announced yesterday, June 29, 2020:
Three new permits, #37670 - #37672, inclusive --

  • Operators: Whiting, Enerplus, Minnkota Power Coop
  • Fields: Sanish (Mountrail); Squaw Creek (Dunn); and, wildcat, Oliver County
  • Comments:
    • Whiting has a new Lacey permit, SWNW 10-152-92, Sanish oil field;
    • Enerplus has a Kudu permit in SWNE 3-148-94, Squaw Creek oil field;
    • Minnkota Power has a J-ROC1 permit in section 4-141-83, Oliver County
The graphic:


See this post regarding the earlier Minnkota Power permit:
A reader expanded:
The Minnkota Power Coop permit is a geologic test well for the Project Tundra Carbon capture project that is progressing. Its part of the front end engineering design portion of the project that is currently under way in order to decide whether or not the project is ultimately built or not.
This is tagged: "ProjectTundra."

Notes From All Over -- Late-Morning Edition -- June 30, 2020

Connecting the dots: this is all a bit ironic. It was reported today that the EU is removing the US from the list of "safe countries" due to corona virus. LOL. The irony? All "dots" lead to Europe. Quick, name the five states in the news with regard to surging Covid-19:
  • Florida, 
  • New York
  • Georgia
  • California
  • Texas
What do they all have in common?

International airports / hubs bringing in international travelers:
  • NYC: JFK
  • Georgia: Atlanta
  • Texas: DFW
  • CA: LAX
  • Florida: the destination for German tourists
NY governor: perhaps the most "ridiculous" (for lack of a better word) of all politicians, all talking heads, throughout this entire pandemic.
Besides being completely wrong on literally everything, he flip-flopped on his own policies, but worst of all: he was not a problem solver. He was a whiner. A huge whiner. Blaming everyone else but himself for NY's experience. No buck stopped with him. Don't take that out of context. I don't like "blaming" in the first place -- that's not the point. What frustrated me: he spent his time blaming folks rather than trying to solve the problem. That's why I like poker. Successful poker players don't blame anyone or anything. They simply play the best they can with the cards they are dealt. Biggest whiners? Pro athletes earning in excess of one million dollars per year. Time to move on. 
Nonsense and saying "no": last week, a story (click bait) with Buffett's #1 "trait" for being successful -- the ability to say "no." The story used Buffett and Steve Jobs as examples. In fact, that was only half the story. The other half: knowing to whom or what to say "no." Had Steve Jobs said "no" to the smart phone and iTunes and yes to Apple TV back in 2007, Apple would not be where it is today.
The other trait not mentioned in the article, which I believe is just as important, or maybe more important, recognizing "nonsense" and ignoring nonsense.

I got that from my closest friend while serving at Grand Forks AFB, ND, back in 1980, or whenever it was. I think John's favorite word was "nonsense." He became one of the most successful physicians I ever had the pleasure of working with and he is still in active practice, well over the "normal" retirement age. He had not time for "nonsense."

Speaking of time, there are a lot of things I don't like about "our" response to Covid-19, but I have to admit that to some degree. we're getting more efficient and getting rid of a lot of "nonsense" where it matters. Wearing masks may or my not be "nonsense," but in the big scheme of things it's unimportant with regard to saving time, being efficient.

Exhibit A: tomorrow is "signing day" for Olivia and club soccer. This is a big, big deal and lots of "legal" boundaries. Normally, families of the soccer player would gather in some arena and go through the process of signing the player to a club team. Think the NFL draft on steroids for tweeners and teeners.

For working parents, it was a lot of "nonsense." Taking up to four hours off from work, driving to some location out in the middle of nowhere, standing in long lines, yada, yada, yada. But now, due to corona virus, lo and behold, it can all be done on-line and on a PDF and an electronic signature with a virtual notary notarizing the signature. Are you kidding me? Someone figures that this could all be done virtually? Wow. Will wonders never cease?

Our Olivia will still get to be with her parents and she will still be able to party and celebrate with her team but the families won't have to be there -- one parent, max, is allowed. This is incredible. It's a win-win for everyone.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Market: as expected, the market turned green. Wow, wow, wow.
  • BA: still down 5%
  • AAPL: up 1%; up almost 4%
  • IMUX: down 3%; down forty cents
  • CLR: up 6%; we talked about this yesterday, I believe
I have to clean up my portfolio. Good luck to all.

Fast And Furious -- Ten Minutes -- June 30, 2020

Headline story of the day: US Supreme Court "okays" public funding for religious schools. Narrow but sweeping. Ruling was authored by none other than Chief Justice John Roberts.

Amber Renee: all eyes on Amber Renee-R and Sophia Drake-R.

Market flat last trading day of 2Q20.

US consumer confidence beats expectations. Link here.

Market:
  • AAPL: up over $2.00
  • BA: down 6%; down over $12
  • IMUX: down over 3%; down 39 cents; trading at $12.10
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

White Mischief: updates on the notes I am taking for this book will be delayed until later today. Link at side bar at the right.

US Supreme Court: for the archives. Rulings on three cases yesterday -- overall I am very happy with the rulings. I think one ruling was wrong, but it was probably -- in the big scheme of things -- the "correct" ruling.

Politics: Dems trying to get traction on new Russia story. Too complicated for Americans to understand. Doesn't make sense to begin with. American tired of "Russia" conspiracy theories. Even Pentagon says there is no "there" there.

Politics: Biden's VP pick -- some suggest Kamala Harris. When you get right down to it, that's about his only choice considering how he boxed himself into a corner.

Covid-19: EU takes US off "safe list."

Dead: at 96, Carl Reiner.

All Eyes On Amber Renee And Sophia Drake Today -- June 30, 2020

See this link.

They both come off the confidential list today.

Later: both wells go to drl/drl status. No production data.

File report on Amber Renee-R:
  • spud date: October 1, 2019
  • cease drilling: October 30, 2019
  • TD: 20,272' 
  • TVD: 9,855.36'
  • target: middle Bakken
  • bottom hole: 111' FSL and 561' FWL, section 36-154-91
  • vertical was drilled in one run
    • logging services began on October 5, 2019; 2210 hrs CDT in the Big Snowy formation;
    • reached KOP of 9,265' MD on October 6, 2019, at 0730 hr CDT
    • about 12 hours
  • curve:
    • began October 6, 2019 at 2015 hrs CDT at 9,265' MD in the Lodgepole
    • background gas was between 34 and 6,275 units; average: 223 units
    • drilled in one run
    • landed at 10,070' MD and 9,773' TVD on October 7, 2019, 1110 hours CDT
    • landed 7' into the middle Bakken
    • about 12 hours drilling
  • the lateral
    • middle Bakken encountered at 9,982' MD, 9,766' TVD
    • background gas, averaged 507 units; high of 1,818 units
    • lateral began at 1545 hr CDT, October 26, 2019
    • one trip to the surface required; lateral completed in two runs;
    • completed at 20,272' MD at 1500 hours CDT, October 30, 2019
    • exactly four days drilling, almost to the hour
  • pending completion at time of report; 
File report on Sophia Drake-R:
  • frack: 48 stages; total proppant, 10.0 million pounds; total water pumped: 250K bbls
  • spud date: September 28, 2019
  • cease drilling: October 22, 2019, TD: 20,652' MD, 9,808.17 TVD;
  • target: middle Bakken
  • bottom hole: 112' FSL and 2,239' FWL section 36-154-91
  • vertical:
    • logging services began at 7,600' MD on October 11, 2019, at 1754 hours CDT in the Big Snowy formation
  • KOP of 9,610' MD reached on October 13, 2019, at 0700 hours; two runs; 
  • curve:
    • began at 1920 hours CDT, October 13, 2019, at 9,610' MD in the Lodgepole
    • landed at 10,334' MD, 9,757' TVD, on October 14, 2019 at 1730 hours;
  • lateral:
    • began at 1120 hours CDT, October 18, 2019;
    • TD reached at 20,652' MD at 1820 hours CDT October 22, 2019
    • background gas averaged 486 units, max at 2150 units
    • the lateral was completed in one run



Five Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- Including Amber Renee And Sophia Drake -- June 30, 2020

Gas demand -- oh, oh: preliminary data suggests US gasoline demand dropped 9% week-over-week, from twitter:


Apple: with next release of its smart phones, it is being reported that it is unlikely that Apple will ship power adapters or AirPods in the box. That just shows how much the Apple iPhone has penetrated the market. 
Saudi: will raise official selling price for China.


OPEC basket: $37.33 -- again, for newbies, this has to be incredibly concerning for Saudi; it goes down again overnight; the price is not clawing its way back to $40; link here;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

COP: sees 2Q20 production 5% below that of previous quarter

************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


$39.036/30/202006/30/201906/30/201806/30/201706/30/2016
Active Rigs1061675830

Wells coming off the confidential list today -- last day of the second quarter -- Tuesday, June 30, 2020: 73 for the month; 218 for the quarter, 445 for the year:
  • 37048, drl/drl, CLR, Simmental Federal 9-16H1, Elm Tree,
  • 36888, drl/drl, Murex, Sophia Drake 25-36H-R, Sanish,
  • 36887, drl/drl, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, Sanish,
  • 36785, drl/A, Kraken, Double Eagble 33-3 1H, Sanish, t--; cum 99K in four months;
  • 35666, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 2H, Poe, t--; cum 123K in four months, including a 49K month;
RBN Energy: Pemex's struggles bode well for US refined product exports, part 2. Archived.
U.S. exports of motor gasoline and diesel to Mexico increased steadily from 2013 through 2018 as demand for refined products south of the border increased and throughput at Pemex’s six older, investment-starved refineries declined. U.S.-to-Mexico shipments of gasoline and diesel sagged in 2019, though, as Pemex started to implement a major refinery rebuilding program, and fell further in the spring of 2020 as the social and economic effects of COVID kicked in and Mexican demand for motor fuels plummeted. So what’s ahead for U.S. refined product exports as Mexican demand gradually rebounds later this year and in 2021? As we discuss today, that will largely depend on the Mexican government’s determination to have its debt-laden energy company produce gasoline and diesel at a loss and proceed with expensive refinery projects.