Tuesday, June 9, 2020

Social Distancing Before It Was A "Thing" -- June 9, 2020

A reader sent me a note earlier this evening -- the note reminded me of a solitary drive I took some years ago.

Still one of my all-time favorite videos:

Shadows In A Mirror, Chris Isaak

I hope "they" never bring this highway into federal safety compliance.

API Reports Huge Crude Oil Build -- WTI Plummets -- Drops 47 Cents -- June 9, 2020

API weekly crude oil in storage: large builds "shocks" markets. I'm shocked! Shocked! Fortunately just in time for hurricane season.  
  • forecast: a small draw of 1.738 million bbls (note false precision)
  • actual: 8.42 million bbls -- wow
  • we'll wait for EIA's data to be posted tomorrow before we get too excited


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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$38.516/9/202006/09/201906/09/201806/09/201706/09/2016
Active Rigs1364615227

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Are You Kidding Me?
This Is The Guy That Led The Impeachment Effort 

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1270135120704548872/pu/vid/480x270/CaeAOmY46DpKGrcV.mp4?tag=10.

Today's Daily Activity Report With So Many Errors And Omissions, Summary Won't Be Posted -- June 9, 2020

There are so many errors and omissions on today's daily activity report and the scout tickets that would go with them, it's not even worth posting the daily activity report. I will see if the scout tickets are posted tomorrow and try to make sense of today's daily activity report.
  • file #37625, a Lime Rock permit for a Jon R well in Stanley oil field does not show up on any daily activity report, despite the fact that the permit has been issued according to the scout tickets
  • today's daily activity report shows four permits, #37626 - #37630, but #37629 is missing
  • today's daily activity report shows file #37629 is for a section line well, but the scout ticket shows this well is file #37630
  • making things more difficult to follow, apparently NDIC is no longEr issuing permits for SWD wells with 9XXXX file number but giving them permit numbers in sequence with oil and gas permits
Assuming there is some accuracy to what was reported, it appears that Equinor was issued at least four permits for State wells in Stony Creek, Williams County, SESW 25-155-100, all 430' FSL and all about 1700' FWL; based on description; name; and, operator, it looks like these four or five wells will run south into section 36-155-100 and section 1-154-100; if so the following wells are active and producing in these sections:
  • 18307, 3,236, Equinor, State 36-1 1H, Stony Creek, t1/10; cum 382K 4/20;
  • 19215, 1,872, Equinor, State 36-1 2TFH, Stony Creek, t9/10; cum 250K 3/20; off line 3/20;
  • 19216, 3,442, Equinor, State 36-1 3H, Stony Creek, t6/12; cum 310K 3/20; off line 4/20;
  • 12186, a vertical well; a Madison well, 347, Citation Oil & Gas, State 23-36, Stony Creek, t12/87; cum 394K 4/20 (no typo);
  • 12323, a vertical well; a Madison well, 176, Citation Oil & Gas, Sudderth1-1, Stony Creek, t5/88; cum 98K 4/20;
  • 12320, a vertical well; a Madison well, 116, Citation Oil & Gas, Barton 41-1, Stony Creek, t2/88; cum 75K 4/20;
  • 23972, sited in section 12-154-100 (Avoca oil field) and running north), 3,249, Equinor, State 36-1 4TFH, Stony Creek, t8/13; cum 324K 4/20;
New Equinor permits:

  • 37630, L, Equinor, 36-1 XW 1TFH, Stony Creek; 2560-acre spacing; sections 35/36-155-100 and sections 1/2-154-100; #12375 is 124' NW of #37630 and is a dry hole; surface hole, 430' FSL; 1647' FWL; bottom hole, 100' FSL; 0' FWL, section 1-154-100;


Two producing wells (DUCs) were reported completed:
  • 36846, drl/A, MRO, Donaason USA 34-21TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 111K in three months;
  • 36845, drl/A, MRO, Aslak USA 44-21TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 101K in 3.5 months;

Clearing Out In The In-Box -- June 9, 2020

Updates

June 10, 2020: see this post for BVLOS


Original Post

From the Williston Herald, Beyond-Visual-Line-of-Sight network for drones -- hopefully paid for in part by Amazon -- LOL:


Headlines of interest from oilprice.com.

Great news for North Dakota and Texas: these states can make up any shortfall in natural gas.


OXY considers selling off middle East oil and gas assets:


Saudi says "no room whatsoever" for noncompliance over OPEC+ production cuts. So, we'll see:




Shaleprofile.com Releases Projected April Data For North Dakota Bakken Production -- June 9, 2020

Shaleprolfile.com has posted estimated North Dakota Bakken crude oil production for April, 2020. The NDIC preliminary data for April, 2020, should be released this Friday, June 12, 2020, at 2:00 p.m. CT.

If their estimate is accurate it means North Dakota oil production stayed above one million bopd through the month of April. Unless it gets even worse, I thought some analysts forecast North Dakota production to drop below one million bopd. We'll have to wait and see.

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Grilling

Last week and over the weekend.

Salmon --18 minutes on a well-soaked plank. Soy sauce marinade. I normally wouldn't use all-natural lump charcoal for salmon but it was already to go because I had just cooked tuna steak on the charcoal.


Tuna steak: directly on the lump charcoal. Ninety seconds on each side was too long. It might be as short as thirty seconds on each side next time. We'll see.


Now To Check AAPL News -- June 9, 2020

This is huge, absolutely huge, and explains why I said an analyst recently made a rookie mistake when he said Warren Buffett made a mistake by "panic selling" his airline stocks. See "Warren Buffett's Spreadsheet" below. Re-posting from yesterday:
Panic selling: there is an article over at Investor's Business Daily which suggests Warren Buffett took a $2.7 billion loss due to "panic selling" of his equity in four airlines (UAL, AAL, LUV, and DAL).  The journalist makes a rookie mistake in his analysis. I will provide the rationale later if I remember to do so.
AAPL:


The news: okay, here it is -- Apple at its Developers Conference --
  • will shift to internal chips
  • IBM exits facial recognition
  • Apple set to unveil custom Mac chip
  • Bollinger Band indicates "bullish stocks"
  • Apple gears up to offer services as a bundled package deal
  • "Apple Buyers Beware" -- Paul Franke -- contributor to SeekingAlpha -- could his timing be worse?
Now, let's check the airlines:
  • UAL: down over 8%;
  • DAL: down slightly over 8%;
  • LUV: down slightly over 6%
  • AAL: down almost 11%;

Chicken: two days ago I went to our neighborhood grocer to buy a chicken to "do" a beer-can chicken. Holy mackerel.
There were only six chickens available, all "organic," and very high-priced, averaging about $18/chicken. Some were priced over $20. I went to another store down the street: a larger selection but pretty much the same story. Are you kidding me. I am aware of Wuhan flu and the chicken shortage story.
Yesterday, I went to Costco. Rotisserie chickens for $4.99.

Amazing.

Our oldest granddaughter says Costco has its own chicken farms.

True or not, think about that.

Now, think about Apple, Inc., making its own computer chips.

But, regardless, I'm curious. Does Costco have its own chicken farms?


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Picture Perfect 


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Warren Buffet's Spreadsheet

Airline
Shr Price: 3/31/2020
Dollars
Shares
Shr Price: June 9, 2020
Total
DAL
28.53
675,000,000
23,659,306
34.08
806,309,148
UAL
31.55
675,000,000
21,394,612
44.97
962,115,689
AAL
12.19
675,000,000
55,373,257
18.24
1,010,008,203
SWA
35.61
675,000,000
18,955,350
38.06
721,440,607


2,700,000,000


3,499,873,648






AAPL
254.29
10,617,799
2,700,000,000
344
3,652,522,710











152,649,063

















3,499,873,648





4.36155924%

Did he fire five shots or six? -- Dirty Harry.

What would you rather be holding today? Airline stocks or AAPL?

What Condition Is My Condition In? -- June 9, 2020

Are you kidding me? I wasn't going to check the markets today, and then this popped up on my twitter feed:


AAPL:


Now, to check Apple, Inc., news.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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What Condition Is My Condition In?

Link here.


Link here.


Link here.


Two square, Sophia with older sister:

Random Update Of North Dakota Monthly Oil Production -- Through March, 2020

Link here.


Link here.


March, 2020. When looking at the final column, one must take into account:
  • the natural decline rate of all oil wells
  • the shutting in of new wells due to the slump in prices; WTI actually went "negative" during this period
  • the overall slowdown in drilling due to the decline in oil prices; it's the new wells that positively impact the last column
From the EIA, previously posted, link here:


From the archives, link here:


May, 2020 - May, 2017, a decline: (1,109 - 1,130)/1,130 = a decline of 1.9%. Greatly affected by the price of oil.

June, 2020 - June, 2019, an increase: (1,309 - 1,138)/1,138 = an increase of 15%. Effect of rig counts  normalizing in response to Saudi surge and the low price of oil.

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Word For The Day

Sophrosyne.

No Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- June 9, 2020

Concerning: this was all over the mainstream media news yesterday -- Trump down 14 points to Biden. CNN poll. Data points:
  • 1,200 adults surveyed
  • not filtered by "registered voters"
  • 25% of respondents self-identified as Republicans
Pricing: Saudis raise oil prices by most in 20 years -- Bloomberg. Link here.
Saudi Arabia increased prices for some crude exports by the most in at least two decades, doubling down on a strategy to bolster the oil market after OPEC+ producers extended historic output cuts over the weekend. The steepest jump in July exports will hit buyers in Asia ...
The month-on-month increase in the official selling price for flagship Arab Light crude to Asia, which accounts for more than half of Saudi oil sales, is the largest in at least 20 years. Aramco raised Asian Arab Light by $6.10 a barrel from June to a premium of 20 cents over the benchmark.
The company increased all grades to Asia by between $5.60 and $7.30. That compares with an expected increase of about $4, according to a Bloomberg survey of eight traders and refiners.
Buyers in the U.S., the Mediterranean region and northwest Europe will also pay more for oil. Arab Light for northwest Europe was raised to a 30 cent premium over the benchmark from a discount of $3.70.
“Now we’re back to 2019 or even 2018 levels for many grades,” said Robin Mills, founder of Dubai-based consulting firm Qamar Energy.

Gas buddy:
  • in San Francisco, CA, gasoline is about $3.00 / gallon of unleaded regular
  • in Fort Worth, Texas:  gasoline at $1.60 / gallon of unleaded regular can easily be found

OPEC basket: $38.89, link here

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


$37.696/9/202006/09/201906/09/201806/09/201706/09/2016
Active Rigs1264615227

No wells coming off the confidential list today. There are very few wells coming off the confidential list the rest of the week.


RBN Energy:Targa Resources' integrated infrastructure to sustainprofits despite E&P meltdown.
Though crude oil prices have been rebounding lately, this spring’s price crash sent shockwaves through the U.S. midstream industry, which had just emerged from a decade of massive infrastructure investment in response to unprecedented upstream production growth. Just as midstreamers were looking forward to steady earnings growth, waves of huge capex cuts and well shut-ins by producers shattered forecasts and shifted strategic instincts toward survival instead of growth.
Every company is different, of course, but a lot can be learned by examining a single firm in detail to see how it will fare in the current market environment, given its particular set of assets and arrangements. Take Targa Resources. An analysis of its performance provides insights into the outlook for integrated natural gas and NGL assets, especially in the Permian Basin, as well as the value of forming joint ventures. Today, we preview our new Spotlight report on Targa.