Monday, June 8, 2020

Why Saudi Arabia Will Lose The Next Price War; MRO Reports A Monster Well - 170K In Less Than 3 Months -- June 8, 2020 -- NRFPT

NRFPT: not ready for prime time.

Link here.


I'll archive this article. Archived here.

The writer provides a great argument why Saudi Arabia will lose the next price war (I would argue, it already lost the first two price wars).

But this one well is another reason why Saudi Arabia will lose the next price war.

The well:
  • 36660, drl/drl, MRO, Shortall USA 14-9H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 170K in 2.5 months: fracked 1/21/2020 - 1/31/2020; 7.062 million gallons of water (a moderate-size frack); 88.63% water by mass; friction reducer broken out by mass % but I don't understand the breakout; 2560-acre spacing; middle Bakken;
Production (45K bbls in 14 days extrapolates to 96K bbls in 30 days):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202030631436343628331792581753458061
BAKKEN3-202030615076138241139765041336659572
BAKKEN2-20201444942443302759452692321146936

MRO Reports Four Incredible DUCs That Remain On "DRL" Status -- June 8, 2020

Active rigs:
$38.696/8/202006/08/201906/08/201806/08/201706/08/2016
Active Rigs1264615226

Two new permits, #37623 - #37624, inclusive --
  • Operator: Oasis
  • Field: Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has permits for two Nikolai Federal wells in lot 4 section 6-152-97; Banks oil field; both are 339' FNL and about are about 1120' FWL spacing unit 28/33-153-97; see graphic below;
    • again, there is a huge error on the daily activity report: the daily activity report says these wells will be sited 339' FSL, in fact, they are sited 339' FNL; the number of errors on the daily activity reports have become quite significant and relatively frequent since earlier this year; 
    • the scout ticket appears correct for this well with regard to siting;



No permits renewed or canceled.

Four producing wells (DUCs) were reported as completed:
  • 36430, drl/A, MRO, Bintz USA 21-4TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 106K 4/20; a 39K month;
  • 36431, drl/A, MRO, Erickson 31-4H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 132K 4/20; a 50K month;
  • 36804, drl/A, MRO, Floyd USA 21-4H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 140K 4/20;  55K month;
  • 36844, drl/A, MRO, Akko USA 44-21H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 188K 4/20; a 60K month;
  • see also:
    • 36660, see below;
    • 20495, 1,413, MRO, Pennington USA 31-4H, Reunion Bay, t12/11; cum 512K 12/19; off line 12/19; remains off line 4/20;
    • 21436, AB/1,353, MRO, Pennington 31-4TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/12; cum 429K 11/18; off line 12/19; remains off line 4/20; nothing in well file to explain why; the well was still producing about 2,000 bbls/ month when it last produced;
    • 167725, 400, MRO, Pennington USA 41-4H, Reunion Bay, t6/09; cum 325K 12/19; off line 12/19; remains off line 4/20;
    • 26805, 2,056, MRO, Renn 41-$TFH, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 249K 4/20;
    • 26807, 2,704, MRO, Earl Pennington USA 44-33H, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 475K 4/20; modest jump in production, 9/18;
  • 36660: fracked 1/21/2020 - 1/31/2020; 7.062 million gallons of water (a moderate-size frack); 88.63% water by mass; friction reducer broken out by mass % but I don't understand the breakout; 2560-acre spacing; middle Bakken;
NDIC File No: 36660     API No: 33-061-04519-00-00     CTB No: 136660
Well Type: OG     Well Status: DRL     Status Date: 11/20/2019     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: SESE 8-151-93     Footages: 325 FSL 290 FEL     Latitude: 47.906275     Longitude: -102.601364
Current Operator: MARATHON OIL COMPANY
Current Well Name: SHORTALL USA 14-9H
Elevation(s): 1982 GL     Total Depth:       Field: REUNION BAY
Spud Date(s):  11/20/2019
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Status: DRL     Date: 11/20/2019
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 169592     Cum MCF Gas: 208454     Cum Water: 97064
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202030631436343628331792581753458061
BAKKEN3-202030615076138241139765041336659572
BAKKEN2-20201444942443302759452692321146936

Another 500-Point Surge On The Dow -- June 8, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Market: wow, wow, wow, what a surge at the end of the day! All three major indices finished quite a bit higher:
  • Dow 30: up almost 500 points, after a 1000-point rally last Friday
  • NASDAQ: up 110 points
  • S&P: up almost 40 points

Oil:
  • OPEC basket: $36.83
  • Brent: $40.72
  • WTI: $38.11
Stocks of interest:
  • AAPL: managed to squeak out a gain -- up almost $2.00
  • AMZN: up 1.65%; up $41
  • NTFX: finished about $420, flat for the day
  • GOOG: up half a percent; up $8 to $1,447
  • IMUX: up almost 6%; up 75 cents to $13.77
  • airlines:
    • DAL: up 8%; up $2.81 to $37;
    • UAL: up 15%; up $6.28 to $49;
    • LUV: uo 6%; up $2.41 to $41
    • AAL: up 9%; up $1.72 to $20
    • BA: up 12%; up $25 to $230
Traders are loving this. I guess I can start looking at my investment statements again. LOL.

TCM, this month on TCM -- June, 2020:

Little Movies, Aaron Lee Tasjan

A Closer Look At A WPX Blue Racer -- June 8, 2020

The WPX Blue Racer wells have been updated. They are tracked here.

These are incredible wells. One example:
  • 36505, drl/A, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HZ, Mandaree (Squaw Creek?), t--; cum 91K over 59 days; Three Forks B1; FracFocus: fracked 2/20/2020 - 3/3/2020; 5.2 million gallons of water; 83.4% water by mass; friction reducer: 0.0247;
Production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202030445584462424442542723247116876
BAKKEN3-202029450114478334565548232069729158

Some things to note:
  • friction reducer by mass: 0.0247
  • this was a very, very small frack: only 5.2 million gallons of water
  • target: Three Forks first bench
Form the well file:
  • permit said field was Squaw Creek; scout ticket, says Mandaree oil field; NDIC map clearly shows horizontal in the Squaw Creek oil field;
  • target: Facies Y of Unit 6 of the Three Forks formation;
  • target was 21' below the top of the Three Forks
  • the curve begun on December 22, 2019, and completed the same day;
  • landing achieved at a TVDof 11,052'; approx 27' below the top of the Three Forks;
  • lateral began on January 4, 2020 (typo in the well file); ended on January 7, 2002

The Zavanna Stranger And Usher Wells Sited In Section 28-151-100

Sited in section 28-151-100, and running north:

The Usher wells:
  • 35879, SI/NC, Zavanna, Usher 28-20 5HXW, Patent Gate, t--; cum 78K in less than four months; a 40K month;
  • 35749, PNC, Zavanna Usher 28-21 PA, Poe,
  • 35748, SI/NC, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 2TFH, Poe, t--; cum 78K in less than five months; 
  • 35747, SI/NC, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 3H, Poe, t--; cum 123K in less than four months; a 45K month;
  • 35746, SI/NC, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 4TFH XW, Patent Gate, t--; cum 84K in five months;
  • 24696, A, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 1H, Poe, t1/18; cum 250K 3/20; off line from 4/19 to 1/20; I assume this was the well holding the lease by production; see this post;
The Stranger wells:
  • 35665, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 1TFH, Poe, t--; cum 81K in less than five months;
  • 35666, conf, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 2H, Poe, t--; cum 123K in four months; a 49K month;
  • 35667, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 3TFH, Poe, t--; cum 81K 4/20; 81K in five months;
  • 35668, conf, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 4H, Poe, t--; cum 130K in less than five months; a 35K month;
  • 35669, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 5TFH, Poe, t--; cum 112K in five months;
  • 35670, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 6H, Poe, t--; cum 164K in five months; a 45K month; according to FracFocus, fracked 10/10/2019 - 10/21/2019; 7.7 million gallons of water; 91.3% water by mass; friction reduction: petroleum distillates, hydroteated light; poly (oxy-1,2-ethanediyl), a-tridecyl-w-hydroxy-, brancher; 0. 05958, 0.00397; total: 0.06355;
  • 35671, SI/NC, Zavanna, Stranger 28-21 7TFHXE, Poe, t--; cum 83K in five months;
Neighboring well sited to the north:
  • 23116, 2,176, Equinor, Cora 20-17 6TFH, Poe, t5/13; cum 174K 3/20; was off line while the Usher wells were being fracked; no halo effect;

Notes From All Over -- Early Morning Edition -- June 8, 2020

First things first: wow! Amazon is kicking off the work week with a deal on the newest 256GB MacBook Air: $899.99 -- down from $999.00. Every color is available at this price. This is a steal.
This is the lowest price Macrumors  has ever tracked for this model. The 512GM model is also knocked down a hundred dollars, to $1,199, but only the Gold color option is available. This suggests to me that Apple's MacBook Air supply / demand ratio is a bit out of joint, in the buyer's favor. Note, however: it apparently comes with a very old operating system installed. One can upload the newest operating system but it will take a significant amount of memory. Current operating system for MacBook Air: 10.14.6 (Mojave) or 10.15 (Catalina). Operating system in this low-priced MacBook Air: 10.11 Capitan. Link here. Later: I can't find the original graphic now that suggested this computer shipped with OS El Capitan, 10.11. Perhaps that has been updated. Reviewers suggest this computer ships with Catalin (OS 10.15) installed.
  • Catalina released: June, 2020.
  • Mojave released: June, 2018.
  • OS X El Capitan released: September, 2015

And: Apple will provide up to 12 months interest-free loans on their Apple Cards when purchasing big ticket Apple products.

AAPL: after setting an all-time high on Friday, AAPL is struggling to turn green today. AAPL was down as much as $3.75 earlier this morning; is now (10:53 a.m. CT) down about 75 cents. Later: it appears AAPL will be green at the end of the day.

Panic selling: there is an article over at Investor's Business Daily which suggests Warren Buffett took a $2.7 billion loss due to "panic selling" of his equity in four airlines (UAL, AAL, LUV, and DAL).  The journalist makes a rookie mistake in his analysis. I will provide the rationale later if I remember to do so. See this note.

Dak Prescott: Michael Irwin says the Dallas Cowboys owe Dak Prescott four years of back-pay. Michael Irwin does not have the authority to sign Dallas Cowboys' checks. Link here.

A Most Peculiar Virus -- Wuhan Flu -- Weekend Update -- June 8, 2020

As predicted: new Wuhan flu cases and Wuhan-flu-related deaths plummeted in Sweden on Sunday:



Although new cases are surging in California and new cases in New York went above 1,000 again (although, just barely), the number of new deaths is remarkably low. For example, Texas, link here:


Again, the data I am waiting for will be the curve from June 14, 2020, to June 28, 2020, about two weeks to four weeks after social distancing rules/guidelines were lifted completely in Minneapolis and New York City.

Meanwhile, NYC "officially" begins to re-open today, Monday, June 8, 2020. The "George Floyd" rioting and looting event has now been called a "soft opening." If all goes well, Mayor De Blasio will have a concertina wire cutting ceremony in front of Saks Fifth Avenue's flagship store in Manhattan later in the day

Ten Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- Monday, June 8, 2020

Biden's short list: US senators Kamala Harris and Pocahontas. Kamala Harris, along with two other senators, including Bernie Sanders, has introduced a bill in the US Senate to give each US family $120,000 annually in the form of cash payments of $10,000/month. Previously reported.

Poll: reminder -- the corona virus vaccine poll at the sidebar at the right. Now this news: AstraZeneca and Gilead in mega-deal merger talks. Link here. Details regarding this poll at this post.

Focus on fracking: link here.

Futures: all major indices in the green. The Dow futures up 180 points at 6:31 a.m. CT.
  • MRO: up 25%
  • OXY: up 19%
  • AAPL: down 0.32% -- after being up over $9.00 on Friday, AAPL is down about a buck in Monday morning futures;
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Oil:
  • Brent: $42.18
  • OPEC basket: $36.83, link here.
  • WTI: $39.39 
*************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


$39.396/8/202006/08/201906/08/201806/08/201706/08/2016
Active Rigs1264615226

Ten wells coming off the confidential list today, over the weekend -- 

Monday, June 8, 2020: 31 for the month; 176 for the quarter, 403 for the year:
  • 36238, drl/NC, Slawson, Periscope Federal 1SLH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 35188, drl/drl, XTO, Hoffmann 21X-6BXC, Siverston, no production data,
  • 31791, drl/drl, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-3H, Charlson, no production data,
Sunday, June 7, 2020: 28 for the month; 173 for the quarter, 400 for the year:
  • 36468, drl/NC, Slawson, Periscope Federal 3-10-11-12H, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 36237, drl/NC, Slawson, Neptang 3-15-22H, Big Bend, no production data,
Saturday, June 6, 2020: 26 for the month; 171 for the quarter, 398 for the year:
  • 36473, drl/NC, Slawson, Periscope Federal 9-10-7TFH, Big Bend, no production data,
  • 36454, drl/drl, BR, Glacierfill 1A, Clear Creek, no production data,
  • 36362, drl/drl, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal l1-12-1H, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 35748, SI/NC, Zavanna, Usher 28-21 2TFH, Poe, t--; um 78K in five months; see this post;
  • 31790, drl/drl, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-2H, Charlson, no production data,
RBN Energy: PEMEX and the future of US motor fuel and LPG exports to Mexico.
Mexican demand for motor gasoline and diesel has plummeted this spring due to COVID-19 — so has demand for LPG. So far, Pemex — Mexico’s state-owned energy company and by far the country’s largest supplier of these commodities — has responded by slashing how much gasoline, diesel and LPG it is importing from the U.S. and holding its own production steady, despite the fact that Pemex’s refining margins are now deep in negative territory. What does Pemex’s focus on money-losing refining mean for U.S. exports to Mexico going forward? Today, we begin a short series on the ongoing competition between U.S. refiners and Pemex for market share south of the border.
The Shale Revolution, the opening up of Mexican energy markets and troubles at Petr├│leos Mexic├ínos (Pemex) combined to spur a booming new business in Texas over the past five years or so: the export of large volumes of gasoline, diesel and LPG to Mexico by rail, ship and pipeline. As we said a couple of years ago, falling production of refined product and propane at Pemex’s aging refineries created a supply vacuum that U.S. refiners, marketers and shippers were all too eager to fill. At the same time, the liberalization of Mexican energy markets finally allowed players other than Pemex to become involved in motor-fuel distribution and retailing. In 2013, U.S. gasoline exports to Mexico averaged only 184 Mb/d, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration; by 2019, they had risen by about 150%, to 472 Mb/d. The same holds true for diesel exports, which rose from 115 Mb/d to 287 Mb/d over the same period. As for LPG exports, they tripled, from 50 Mb/d in 2013 to 149 Mb/d last year.