Saturday, June 6, 2020

ERCOT Texas -- Random Update -- June 6, 2020

We're flirting with 100-degree highs in north Texas this weekend and the forecast is for 100-degree weather through a week from tomorrow.

So, how is ERCOT Texas holding up under all that a/c demand?

Here's the ERCOT Texas forecast, as of May 13, 2020:
ERCOT adjusted its peak load forecast to 75,200 MW to account for economic impacts related to COVID-19. The new forecast is 1,496 MW less than what was reported in the preliminary summer SARA and increases the summer 2020 reserve margin to 12.6%, up from 10.6%.
However, the new forecast is still higher than ERCOT’s all-time peak demand record of 74,820 MW set on Aug. 12, 2019.
The grid operator anticipates there will be sufficient generation to meet the expected demand under normal/expected operating conditions.
Most interesting: despite the lockdown / meltdown-2020 / COVID-19 -- whatever you want to call it -- the new forecast is still higher than ERCOT’s all-time peak demand record of 74,820 MW set on Aug. 12, 2019

Wow! 

Today, from this link:


Long term:


***************************
Comment

It's my impression that Texas is pro-growth and is preparing for increased grid requirements compared to the northeast US which seems, to me, to be anti-growth and not preparing for increased grid requirements.

It will be interesting to look at the grid five years from now across the US. I hardly have a dog in this fight -- I use so little energy -- but it will be interesting to follow.

By the way, ISO New England costs today, link here:



So, how's all that renewable energy working out? Natural gas still accounts for 63%:


Not So Bad -- At Least Not So Far -- June 6, 2020

Note: in a long note like this, there will be typographical and content errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. 

Wow, wow, wow. Exactly what I thought but didn't say anything -- I thought it was beyond the pale, as they say.

How did I miss this story?

I think I follow "shale" fairly closely, but if so, how did I miss this story? It certainly seems it was buried. I've archived it so it isn't lost. It may have been buried because the "final chapter" has not been written.

But here's the link and a few items from the story: US shale outperforms expectations in 1Q20.

It is a summary of a Rystad Energy posted on oilprice.

It begins:
Following the publication of the energy industry’s first quarterly results since the Covid-19 outbreak, a Rystad Energy analysis reveals a surprising contrast. While the oilfield service market has taken a massive hit in earnings and profit margins, US shale operators had an impressive quarter under the circumstances, which even ended up in increased dividends.
A preliminary analysis of 204 service companies finds that revenues are down 6% compared to the same period last year, while impairment charges have skyrocketed.
Profit margins for January through the end of March 2020 were down by almost 90%, and the top 50 public service companies recorded total net losses exceeding $35 billion – far greater than the quarterly losses incurred during the previous industry crisis five years ago.
Now some data points:
  • sectors with greatest revenue decreases, the usual suspects
  • well services and land drillers in US shale operations
  • offshore project delays are also taking a toll on service revenues
  • share prices have also been hit hard; falling by almost 50% since the beginning of the year
  • offshore drillers hit particularly hard
Then this:
“Although the 6% year-on-year fall in 1Q 2020 revenues appears modest compared to the massive decreases of 30% or more recorded during the last downturn, our analysis indicates that we are witnessing only the beginning. Larger declines are expected in the near term. This is bad news for an industry that still has not fully recovered from the previous crisis,” says Aleksander Erstad, energy service analyst at Rystad Energy.
More data points:
  • of the 39 public US shale oil producers analyzed last  year (1Q19), due to mergers, bankruptcy and delayed filings, the group analyzed by Rystad Energy fell to 35 operators in 4Q19 and 29 operators in 1Q20
Then this:
Despite the worsening market, the sector performed much better than what many expected under the circumstances.
More data points:
  • 1Q20: a surplus of more than $1 billion in cash from operations compared to capital spend during the period, even though the number of operators that managed to balance out dropped back to 45%
Quote from Rystad Energy:
“It’s the fourth consecutive quarter of positive cash balancing, and the fourth quarter in the history of the shale industry when companies didn’t overspend. This is actually quite impressive, especially for first-quarter results,” says Alisa Lukash, senior shale analyst at Rystad Energy.
More data points:
  • fair value changes:
    • amounted to a positive $9.6 billion, which is the highest since 2014, followed by 4Q14 at $9.5 billion and 4Q19 at $9.2 billion
  • dividend payments:
    • surprisingly grew by almost $50 million for the peer group in 1Q20, as operators displayed an effort to shore up plunging equity prices. The ratio of dividends to capex grew to 6.4% in 1Q20, versus 5.6% in 4Q19
  • stock buyouts: paused
  • debt and interest: increased by $7 billion to $140 billion since Rystad Energy's previous update in late March, 2020   

Idle Ramblling On The Bakken -- June 6, 2020

I've received a bit of e-mail from readers regarding the Bakken. It gives me an opportunity for some observations and comments.

Reminder: I'm inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

One item from a reader: can I assume that new wells for the future in Williams county will be non-existent?

My reply: it all depends on prices. But you are correct, it does look bleak for Williams County right now. But if one looks at the permits issued so far this calendar year, it looks like a fairly even distribution across the four major Bakken counties. Data points:
  • of the 326 permits issued so far this calendar year in North Dakota,  
    • Williams County: 65
    • Mountrail County: 67
    • McKenzie County: 101
    • Dunn County: 75
  • Of the Williams County permits issued this calendar year:
    • Kraken, Oliver oil field: 12
    • Zavanna, Stockyard Creek: 5
    • Zavanna, Long Creek: 1
    • Kraken, Lone Tree Lake: 2
    • KODA, Bar Butte: 2 
    • Crescent Point Energy, Dublin: 8
    • Whiting, Dollar Joe: 5
    • Liberty Resources, Northwest McGregor: 1
    • CLR, Long Creek: 1
    • CLR, East Fork: 9
    • CLR, Beaver Lodge: 10
    • XTO, Grinnell: 7
    • XTO, Hofflund: 1
    • Bruin, Strandahl: 1
  • The most recent Williams County permits were issued on May 26, 2020, fairly recently.
Second issue: with regard to the Williams County wells, the reader said, I'll always wonder what the Anna wells would have produced if drilled today. The Anna wells to which the reader refers are tracked here.

Reply: I've talked about that frequently on the blog.
  • at the moment I divide the Bakken wells into five groups:
    • those wells drilled in North Dakota between 2007 and 2010, inclusive
    • those wells drilled between 2011 and 2014, inclusive,
    • those wells drilled between 2015 and 2016, inclusive,
    • those wells drilled between 2017 and 2019, inclusive
    • those wells drilled in 2020
  • the dates can be changed a bit but generally that's about right
  • there are many, many variables affecting the five groups
  • almost every well drilled before 2016 needs to be re-drilled and/or re-fracked
    • that's also true for wells drilled after 2016, but of lower priority than the pre-2016 wells
  • there have been three periods when "lessons learned" in the Bakken accelerated
    • 2007 - 2010, inclusive
    • 2014 - 2016, inclusive
    • the current period, beginning in March, 2020
With regard to the Anna wells:
  • the original Anna wells will all be re-fracked some day; maybe ten years from now; but they will all be re-fracked if the world is still using oil ten years from now; and,
  • there will be four times as many Anna wells as there are now at some point in the distant future; again, assuming the world is still using oil in ten years;
A third observation: a reader noted the issue of water some time ago, maybe a year ago.

My thoughts: I am beginning to wonder if we are seeing a "novel" definition of water-flooding in the Bakken. More on that later. I alluded to it in an earlier post today (June 6, 2020).

A fourth observation: a reader noted the use of "slick water" in the Bakken, maybe a year or two ago; I mentioned it some time ago and follow it when I can; it's difficult because much of the information is proprietary.

A fifth observation: the old meme, the more proppant, the better the well. To a great extent that's true, but there's much more to it that that.

A sixth observation: the first time the Saudis tried to kill the US shale industry lasted two years. The US shale industry survived. How well it came out of that two-year debacle is a story for another day, by someone else. Not me. My views are too jaundiced. This time, the tea leaves suggest the Saudi attempt will be much shorter than two years. 

A seventh observation: from the very beginning of the boom there were questions about communication between wells due to fracking. It turns out that issue is still being debated and studied, most recently by XTO and the Mariner wells. After all this time, we are still learning about shale. Well, technically, it's dolomite and sandstone between seams of shale.

An eighth observation/comment: as soon as I start reading an article regarding CAPEX, I lose interest and move on. Sometimes I will mention it on the blog, but mostly for archival purposes. 

Perhaps more to follow.

Reminder: Open Wheel Racing But So Much More -- June 6. 2020

All of a sudden -- way too much.

ABC: a special with much focus on my hero -- Phil Jackson, "The Last Dance." I had not seen this before. What little I've seen so far: superb. It helps me put "white privilege" and "black lives matter" into perspective. And America, the greatest country the world has ever seen. From Variety
“The Last Dance” chronicled the outstanding basketball career of Jordan and his six NBA championships with the Chicago Bulls. After the final two episodes aired on Sunday, the show became the most-watched documentary on ESPN ever. [Time is everything: not much to compete with this sports documentary during the lock down when there is "no" live sports being televised. Some exceptions.]
NBC: open-wheel racing from Texas Motor Speedway, just a few miles down the road from where I call home. I actually attended an open-wheel race at TMS -- was it a year ago? Last year or the year before. I prefer watching it on television. It's a very, very, very hot day here -- they say it's 120-degrees inside the race cars; 90+ degrees, ambient.

TCM: "Lawrence of Arabia." On my top ten movie list, although I've said it's one of a handful of movies on that list I really cannot watch often. I can watch it on TCM in bits and pieces.

I need three big screen television sets.

And then there's the blog.

And maybe even a little reading. 

****************************
Later

1. The race is over; a great race.

2. "Lawrence of Arabia": intermission.

3. "The Last Dance": I was impressed. The entire series would be too much for me to watch. A very clever production.

*****************************
And Still Later

Considered to be the best editing cut ... ever:


The filming of "Lawrence of Arabia" took so long, that at least two of the lead actors were able to complete other movies while still filming LOE.

Scandinavian Corona Virus -- June 6, 2020

Sweden:


Norway:


Another Huge CLR Carson Peak Well -- June 6, 2020

Important note: note the amount of returned water. A reader noticed this phenomenon in the Bakken about a year ago. Very, very, very interesting. This, along with XTO's look at communication between neighboring wells, different formations, after fracking is very, very intriguing.

The well:
  • 35272, 3,376, CLR, Carson Peak 4-35HSL, Oakdale, t6/19; cum 445K 4/20; huge well;
Full production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2020284028240311782161240587601939
BAKKEN3-202031542915422410515760776431911295
BAKKEN2-2020253747537504766743876356737901
BAKKEN1-2020314105841092889945559431142103
BAKKEN12-2019313578335772916439931373922130
BAKKEN11-2019303190631870726630733258394553
BAKKEN10-20193134680346688246288891567412878
BAKKEN9-2019303559135588936934781274037006
BAKKEN8-20193142880428761202940905338946657
BAKKEN7-20193147954479321488947232408086067
BAKKEN6-20192038292381371162832326244247528
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20198503750372851261802618

Almost 500K In Less Than A Year -- CLR -- Carson Peak - June 6, 2020

Almost 500K in less than a year.

When I find the link, I will re-post the "Saudi analysis" of the Bakken. 

The well:
  • 35081, 3,556, CLR, Carson Peak 8-35H2, Oakdale,  t5/19; cum 476K 4/20; 70K well;
Full production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202028238512386679512951428319934
BAKKEN3-20203131548315151037434724293585155
BAKKEN2-2020252312323129853323440190584221
BAKKEN1-2020312303223092778824143228471115
BAKKEN12-2019312605926081973228697268721531
BAKKEN11-20193027355273291017928958243464290
BAKKEN10-201931306143058911237269021459611993
BAKKEN9-20193028746287691116729551232835952
BAKKEN8-20193140595406271596240748337636632
BAKKEN7-20193155133551352245954834473777043
BAKKEN6-201930506865083822437461913490010757
BAKKEN5-20193169314693743308774737660747832
BAKKEN4-20191544172437551728147768419335379
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20195189618963138142401424

The graphics:


A CLR Morris Well Recently Completely -- June 6, 2020

The well:
  • 34351, 1,969, CLR, Morris 6-23H, Oakdale, t4/19; cum 260K 4/20; a 36K well;
Production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202029121141207791173647935322812
BAKKEN3-20203117541176381220844167437640
BAKKEN2-202020968695977064172611700331
BAKKEN1-20203117032169691109732344319410
BAKKEN12-20193120613208401276234629342270
BAKKEN11-20192924321242241511332139302791504
BAKKEN10-20193026625266602193230600261334098
BAKKEN9-2019410279663776111910830
BAKKEN8-201922185571864214869214342109963
BAKKEN7-20193127225272532595829302254293496
BAKKEN6-20192522090220552166224558211473100
BAKKEN5-2019303579935829333093900037960672
BAKKEN4-20192226190257382955024781198394673
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20195114311434259143501435

The graphic:
 

CLR's Carson Peak Well With 4-Fold Jump In Production -- June 6, 2020

Somehow I missed this one. When I get the chance, I will add it to my list of "wells of interest." This well was drilled back in 2011; had huge jump in production in 2019, almost a decade later.

The well:
  • 18859, 680, CLR, Carson Peak 3-35H, t5/11; cum 797K 4/20; nice production profile (5/18); huge jump in production; recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20202846184513214540933589140
BAKKEN3-202031624262222964571253040
BAKKEN2-20202655565072311848404304203
BAKKEN1-2020880310224038587850
BAKKEN12-201931823083113950806076530
BAKKEN11-20193094849611458894068899115
BAKKEN10-201931110391121358321122910151667
BAKKEN9-201930116611164967911282812109321
BAKKEN8-20193113212129708398143801391161
BAKKEN7-2019311322613455100421479313941434
BAKKEN6-2019301567015737142661737193957578
BAKKEN5-2019311340013201150191383068056619
BAKKEN4-20192813423130171008513523109592202
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-20190000000
BAKKEN1-20190000000
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-20186518703505655060
BAKKEN9-201830361537213783721325976

Whiting's Kannianen 44-34H In The Sanish Is Back On Line; Had Been Off Line For About One Year -- June 6, 2020

The well:
  • 18298, 3,422, Whiting, Kannianen 44-33H, Sanish, t1/10; cum 703K 4/20; off line as of 4/19; remains off line 1/20; back on line 4/20;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20203076475813578168059
BAKKEN3-202051111101231841831
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-201920694754370135713210
BAKKEN3-2019211003103353223921980
BAKKEN2-20192811761137138270126450
BAKKEN1-20193114831465197321031480

CLR Antelope Well in Elm Tree Back On Line -- June 6, 2020

The well:
  • 1488, 1,357, CLR, Antelope 3-23H, four sections; Elm Tree, Bakken, t8/12; cum 703K 4/20;   off line 11/19; remains off line 1/20; only two days, 2/20;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20202737393508305750993870884
BAKKEN3-202022151914757969296320
BAKKEN2-202022700871681410
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20192022372379719514827272176
BAKKEN10-201931380239831098855551263011
BAKKEN9-201930306529731279705050741576

Three EOG Wayzetta Wells Sitting At 800K Cumulative Crude Oil -- June 6, 2020

The wells:
  • 25646, 607, EOG, Wayzetta 30-3230H, t11/13; cum 799K 3/20; off line 3/20; remains off line 4/20;
  • 25647, 110, EOG, Wayzetta 31-3230H, t10/13; cum 799K 4/20; 
  • 25093, 745, EOG, Wayzetta 150-159H, 52 stages, 14 million lb, t8/13; cum 800K 4/20; only 14 days, 8/19; only 9 days, 4/20;
**************************************
Parr Park Rocks

Grapevine, Texas -- Parr Park --

Tiger Meat -- Nothing About The Bakken -- June 6, 2020

Wow, talk about going down a rabbit hole, as one of my readers might say.

Early this morning, I just happened to mention grilling and digressed to steak tartare and before I knew it, I was reading about tiger meat (from a reader, thank you very much) and ended up at the Aberdeen (SD) Magazine.

From the magazine, go to the link for the complete article:
Many people around here can’t wait for a party just so they can serve and eat tiger meat. Why raw beef with raw egg is called tiger meat in these parts remains a mystery.... For whatever reason, we love it here.

According to Glen Aipperspach, a former Aberdonian who ran a meat market known for German-style meats, he believes tiger meat is nothing more than steak tartare, distilled down into simpler flavors befitting of the Midwest pallet...
.... Historians argue it was named after the Tartar conquerors who introduced raw meat to the Russians in Germany, while others contend it means “with tartar” as in raw meat with tartar sauce. In any case, it came to the U.S. via Germans, Russians, or the French. Ultimately steak tartare was fried up in Hamburg, Germany, creating the hamburger.
Everything about tiger meat doesn’t make sense...// –Troy McQuillen.
It seems to be "peculiar" to those in North Dakota and Minnesota. All my years growing up in Williston, ND, I had never heard of it. Amazing.

Later: another note on tiger meat, from another reader

Wind -- Decline In Performance -- Wind Farm Shenanigans -- June 6, 2020

Re-posting:
Wind energy: I linked the article from which this graphic is taken earlier in the week. If I find the link / that post, I will link it again. This is most fascinating. The authors note this in their study which accompanies the graphic below:
In the United States, wind-plant performance declines smoothly with age, until a stepwise drop in performance occurs when plants age out of eligibility for the performance tax credit.
The stepwide change in performance, a pattern not found in other countries, indicates that performance decline can be influenced by policy mechanisms and the cost effectiveness of maintenance and is not an immutable function of physical degradation of the wind turbines.
The overall decline rate is on the lower end of estimates from other countries.
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Sophia: Sight Words


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The Paint Page

The two older granddaughters and I visited three antique stores yesterday (and a fourth the day before).

Not antiques, but seen in one of the stores, something I had not seen before. Interesting. From Great Britain.





Random Note On Crescent Point's Blue Ridge Wells -- June 6, 2020

Somehow in all the excitement this week, I forgot to address the comments at this post, the update on a Bruin Hokanson well in Ellisville oil field. The comment:
Here is an anomaly for Blue Ridge, Winner townships. Let's see the trend but these numbers are 2 to 3 times higher than any IP in 12 mile area.
Hopefully a "sweet spot".....
I was told today that Crescent has stopped production until prices rebound.
NDIC File No: 36564 API No: 33-105-05218-00-00
Location: LOT1 4-158-100 Footages: 325 FNL 325 FEL
Current Operator: CRESCENT POINT ENERGY U.S. CORP.
Current Well Name: CPEUSC EMERSON CLAIRE 33-28-159N-100W MBH Field: BLUE RIDGE
Spud Date(s): 8/23/2019
Pool: BAKKEN Cum Oil: 52836 Cum MCF Gas: 42823 Cum Water: 200463
Monthly Production Data
Pool Date Days BBLS Oil Runs BBLS Water MCF Prod MCF Sold Vent/Flare
BAKKEN 4-2020 30 19989 20393 62705 16027 16006 21
BAKKEN 3-2020 28 14109 14220 49736 10958 10671 287
BAKKEN 2-2020 23 11691 11523 52951 9100 8840 260
BAKKEN 1-2020 31 7047 6061 35071 6738 1286 5452
Now to go back and sort it out:
  • 36564, drl/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Emerson Claire 33-28-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, t--; cum 53K 4/20
Production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-202030199892039362705160271600621
BAKKEN3-2020281410914220497361095810671287
BAKKEN2-20202311691115235295191008840260
BAKKEN1-2020317047606135071673812865452

It looks like Crescent Point continues to bring up the frack water/produced water in the original manner, not choking it back as it appears some other operators are doing. 

Blue Ridge is about as far north in Williams County and still be inside the county; almost abuts the Divide County line to the north. The oil field is a 24-section, 4x6 field. There appear to be about six producing wells in that field, with perhaps five more to come on line soon.

I would think most folks consider this Tier 2 at best, probably Tier 3, but Crescent Point is certainly active in this area.