Thursday, May 7, 2020

This Might Just Be The Biggest Story Of The Week -- May 7, 2020

Update

May 8, 2020: Military Times sheds more light on this story. Apparently the US has had two Patriot missile batteries, fighters and US military personnel in Saudi for a long time. After recent attacks on US military personnel inside Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration added two additional Patriot missile batteries, fighters and US military personnel. It is this buildup -- the two additional missile batteries and the additional fighters that were sent over to bolster US defenses that Trump is now removing. Maybe not as big a story as originally posted. Hard to say.

 
Original Post
 
Re-posting:
Saudi Arabia is in deep doo-doo: I haven't read the story yet, but I saw the headline -- "US to withdraw Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia over oil dispute." Think about that. Then think about this post: someone compared those photos of the ULCCs and VLCCs off the coast of California to our "sitting ducks" at Pearl Harbor in 1941.
The decision, if accurate, to remove Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia didn't happen overnight. Obviously our SecDef (whoever that might be; I've long forgotten) and SecState Pompeo have been discussing US options with their Saudi counterparts for sometime, now.
If Saudi was given a heads-up that we might pull our Patriot missiles out of Saudi Arabia -- wow -- that on-shore storage in the desert would have looked even more like "sitting ducks." No wonder Prince MbS emptied his on-shore storage and put it out of harms' way in ULCCs and VLCCs off the coast of California. This is absolutely fascinating. 
Fastest way to move oil to $100/bbl: a real shooting war in the Mideast.

Iran: re-calculating, re-calculating, re-calculating. 

Israel: watching closely. Maybe time to take out a nuclear facility -- the tea leaves suggest Iran has reached the "tipping point" with regard to going it alone, and ready to take the next step.

To me, things just seem way too quiet in the Mideast with all that is going on.

Again, as I said in an earlier post along this same line: these comments are completely random, unlikely, impossible to be true, but it would be interesting to bring this up at the deli at Cash Wise Foods in Williston, where I always had lunch with my dad when visiting.

This is just some random, crazy thinking. Crazy thinking. But it's been a crazy year.

BR's Monster Rink/Kermit Wells Have Been Updated -- May 7, 2020

These are incredible wells; tracked here.

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In Other Non-Bakken News

No links; stories easily found. Normally one might find these stories after the close of business, Friday night. But all of a sudden --- on a Thursday -- apparently folks are getting tired of hearing nothing but Wuhan flu.
  • DOJ suddenly drops case against Flynn.
  • Senate fails to override president's veto on Iran war powers.
  • Texas salon owner freed after order from state Supreme Court.
  • RBG takes Ninth Circuit to law school in reversal of immigration case.
  • Coronavirus case fatality ratio may be 10 to 40x less severe than advertised; no worse, maybe less worse than seasonal flu.
  • Vitamin D is the answer. 
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Caveman Grilling

I've talked about caveman grilling before. Here's a  link to a "professional."

I don't know what it is about Americans -- they love to take pictures of their food. I'm no exception. LOL.

Whatever.

I cooked a t-bone steak directly on FOGO tonight. Do NOT cook directly on "standard" briquets. Wow, it turned out well.

Steak at room temperature. No olive oil or vegetable oil; putting vegetable oil directly on FOGO and you have a syrupy mess. Only a very, very simply kosher salt and pepper rub. 

One-inch thick t-bone (pretty thin for real men but that's what was on sale today; $20-t-bone for $8): 2 1/2 minutes on each side, and then 15 minutes wrapped tightly in aluminum foil.

Just slightly more cooked than medium rare; if I were to do this size-steak again, I would grill each side for 2 minutes, maybe 2 1/4 minutes, but definitely a bit less than 2 1/2 minutes. That's how fast these things cook directly on FOGO.

Incredible.



The flame at the top of the picture was simply a bit of fat on fire. Didn't amount to anything (see next photo) but the fire was controlled/extinguished by simply closing all vents for about 15 seconds.


Petro-Hunt With Three New Permits In East Tioga Oil Field -- May 7, 2020

OPEC basket, link here: $22.40.

EOG: 1Q20 quarterly results.

MDU: 1Q20 quarterly results.

Saudi Arabia is in deep doo-doo: I haven't read the story yet, but I saw the headline -- "US to withdraw Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia over oil dispute." Think about that. Then think about this post: someone compared those photos of the ULCCs and VLCCs off the coast of California to our "sitting ducks" at Pearl Harbor in 1941.
The decision, if accurate, to remove Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia didn't happen overnight. Obviously our SecDef (whoever that might be; I've long forgotten) and SecState Pompeo have been discussing our options with their Saudi counterparts for sometime, now.
If Saudi was given a heads-up that we might pull our Patriot missiles out of Saudi Arabia -- wow -- that on-shore storage in the desert looks even more like "sitting ducks." No wonder Prince MbS emptied his on-shore storage and put it out of harms' way on ULCCs and VLCCs off the coast of California. This is absolutely fascinating. 
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Back to the Bakken

Daily activity report not posted by NDIC today.

Active rigs (history of ND rig counts at this post):

$23.875/7/202005/07/201905/07/201805/07/201705/07/2016
Active Rigs2064614927

Three new permits, #37564 - #37566 (NDIC daily activity report in error), inclusive --
  • Operator: Petro-Hunt
  • Field: East Tioga (Mountrail)
  • Comments: 
    • Petro-Hunt has permits for a Jorgenson/Johnson permit in SESE 11-158-94, East Tioga oil field, all about 375 FSL; all 840 FEL;
Six permits renewed:
  • XTO: four Jorgenson Federal permits and two Johnsrud permits, all in McKenzie County.
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 36661, drl/A, MRO, Thoen 41-28H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 128K in less than 3 months;
  • 36662, drl/A, MRO, Doven 11-25TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 90K in less than 3 months;
  • 36789, SI/A, MRO, Oates 21-27H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 125K in less than 3 months;

Tracking Completed DUCsThat Don't Report An IP in Bakken 4.0 -- An Interim Update -- May 7, 2020

Over at the sidebar at the right, I have a link to a post where I track DUCs that are reported but continue to report no IP. This is an interim update. This page will not be update, now will the linked post. I will provide interim updates.

These are only a few of the wells; I don't have time to post all of them:
  • 36261, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HA, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 21K in 40 days; first full month extrapolates to 51,242 bbls;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20201220497206541155022916108539706
BAKKEN2-202028808523488600
  • 36260, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HX, Squaw Creek, t--; cum --; first full month extrapolates to 68,729 bbls;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202011243882423517840272651100013656
BAKKEN2-20200000000
  • 36463, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HUL, Mandaree, t--; cum --; first full month extrapolates to 65,751 bbls; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20201531815315711129035569032165
BAKKEN2-20200000000
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20202934302345934524037114034797
BAKKEN2-20201645219446765899545660042648
  • 34601, drl, MRO, Salveson USA 24-21H, Reunion Bay,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20202946754468204499052652049489
BAKKEN2-20201533998335896597440499038217
  • 35914, SI/A, CLR, Wahpeton 16-16H1, Banks, t--; cum --; fracked 12/6/19 - 12/17/19; 7.1 million lbs; 88.42% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06511; see this note; a huge well;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20204300366283
2-20201718522139
1-20201170
  • 31520, SI/A, CLR, Steele Federal 5-24H1, Banks, t--; cum 18K over 15 days; fracked 12/14/19 - 12/23/19;8.2 million lbs; 87.8% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06636;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20202414042503
2-20202649444397
1-20201801126459
  • 31523, SI/A-->CONF, CLR, Steele Federal 9-24H, Banks, t--; cum 15K over 14 days; fracked 12/2/19 - 12/13/19; 10.6 million gallons of water; 86.88% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06511;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20203154460492
2-20203607968968
1-20201487025449
  • 31522, SI/A-->CONF, CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, Banks, t--; cum 17K over 13 days; fracked 12/1/19 - 12/13/19; 9 million gallons of water; 88.2% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06982;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
3-20202614738714
2-20202823650381
1-20201678328327
  • 30177, A/F, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, t--; cum 61K over 61 days:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20203228320950144414254
BAKKEN2-2020211709917104176441165697021850
BAKKEN1-20203131718320303713519315320212535
BAKKEN12-20196952686481894533104270

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Making Pancakes 

I thought I had posted these, but maybe I haven't. I apologize if these are a repeat. Making pancakes about a week ago:




All Is Right With The World -- Yesterday's Daily Activity Report Is Picture-Perfect -- May 7, 2020

Another huge shout-out to the great folks at the NDIC. Thank you for everything you do.

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On A Completely Different Note

Click here and on the video. Skip ahead to about 24 minutes into the briefing and to the end. Talk about a picture-perfect 30-second campaign ad on coronavirus.

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As Long As We've Gotten This Far Off-Track

Can anyone remember when the US Supreme Court ever voted unanimously on any high-visibility case? I can't. But then my memory is fading as fast as Sleepy Joe's. Whatever.

The US Supreme Court apparently voted unanimously to overturn "bridgegate" convictions. Links everywhere, here's one.

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Back to the Books

Warning: some references suitable for adults only.

The Wisdom of the Birds: An Illustrated History of Ornithology, Tim Birkhead, c. 2008.

I find it absolutely amazing how little we knew about bird, or should we say, fowl, reproduction prior to 1970.

Digression: 1970. That's an interesting snapshot in time. In 1970 we may have known more about human reproduction that avian reproduction. In 1961 the first oral contraceptive pill was approved by the FDA and became (somewhat) widely available.

Back to The Wisdom of The Birds, page 87:
It is now known that that the females of all birds released their ova [eggs] sequentially from the ovary, each one twenty-four to forty-eight hours before it is laid. 

Since an ovum [an egg] can be fertilized only during the 15-minute period while it is in the infundibulum [located between the ovary and the vagina in the bird], sperm storage - which ensures a constant supply of sperm delivered to the infundibulum -- avoids the inconvenience (or impracticality) of having to copulate at a very specific time each day to fertilize each egg in turn.

Sperm storage is a ubiquitous feature of birds, but varies in duration from around a week in pigeons and doves to over a month in fulmars and other species where male and female spend long periods apart. A convenient arrangement.
As noted, the FDA approved the birth control pill in 1961.
The existence of sperm storage tubules in wild songbirds (passerines) was discovered only in the 1970s when the American biologist Olin Bray and colleagues were checking whether vasectomy could be used to control the number of red-winged blackbirds, an agricultural pest. To Bray's surprise (and disappointment), many of the female blackbirds paired to vasectomized males continued to produce fertile eggs -- not because the vasectomy failed, but contrary to all expectations, female red-winged blackbirds turned out to be highly promiscuous and appeared to copulate with males other than their partner.
Shocked! I'm shocked! Tell me that's not true. One of my favorite birds while growing up in North Dakota was the red-winged blackbird. Not only is it an agricultural pest (I would love to hear back from ND farmers whether this is true) but the R-WB is promiscuous. Oh, the horrors of it all.

And to think a researcher was looking to extinct this species. [Yeah, I know: I don't think "extinct" can be used as a verb, but it's been a very, very strange year so far.]

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North American Jays

Members of the crow family, known as corvids, are considered the most "intelligent" of birds. Four North Amercan jays, members of the crow family, are the blue jay (the one we most commonly see here in Texas0; the Teller's jay; the Florida scrub jay, and the Canada jay.

Being members of the crow family explains their aggressiveness and bullying behaviors noted on Sophia's patio where we put out seed for the birds.

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Migration: Storks On The Wing

Yeah, this is fun

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Summer

MRO Reports An Incredible B-D-E-F Pad -- May 7, 2020

The wells:
  • 35422, SI/A, MRO, Esther USA 21-15H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 189K over 3 months
  • 35423, SI/NC, MRO, Doris USA 21-15TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 172K over three months;
  • 35421, drl, MRO, Beatrice USA 31-5TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 134K over three months;
  • 35424, SI/A, MRO, Frances USA 11-15H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 162K over 3 months

The MRO B-D-E-F wells run south to north. Neighboring, older wells that run parallel to these wells, north to south:
  • 18434, 621, MRO, Wakelum 21-3H, Reunion Bay, t5/10; cum 337K; off line at the expected time, but no jump in production;
  • 21750, 2,084, MRO, Wakelum 31-3TFH, Reunion Bay, t3/12; cum 379K; huge well, not taken off line;
  • 21369, 1,737, MRO, Wakelum 41-3H, Reunion Bay, t4/12; cum 343K; taken off line 8/19; remains off line 3/20;
Production --

35423:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20203144905447783446236072032514
BAKKEN2-20202950607506844514935864031981
BAKKEN1-20203176615762088714973821068643
BAKKEN12-20192171169408106094

35421:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20203125250252222336721097019098
BAKKEN2-20202934944349073311223818021158
BAKKEN1-20202736113363553734036472034023
BAKKEN12-20191437220367854040829190026677

35422:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20203130174302222044325706023302
BAKKEN2-20202954130540972817237376033256
BAKKEN1-20202960473606663600760322056226
BAKKEN12-20191344094435783015148238045200

35424:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-20203150326500793121939249035316
BAKKEN2-20202840569406802925530863027710
BAKKEN1-20202870751703736465571883067083

 

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- May 7, 2020

Why not? At this link, click on the  "ARROW" on the Google icon to get a bit of music history.

Bored? Google doodle games.

Jobless claims: link here:
  • prior: 3.839 million
  • revised: 3.846
  • consensus: 3.041 million (obviously darts thrown at a dart board; I love the false precision)
  • actual: 3.139 million
  • trending toward 40 million unemployed over past six weeks
Unemployment:
Also in Arizona:
State debt (quick fix: raise state income taxes and property taxes):
What's up, doc? We've gone from near-perfect daily activity reports from the NDIC for over ten years, and then two days ago, this, and then yesterday the report was not posted. As of 8:14 a.m. Thursday, May 7, 2020, yesterday's report not yet posted. Update: posted. From Wednesday's daily activity report:


OPEC basket: $21.44. Link here and always at the sidebar. This morning, OPEC shows $22.40 up from $21.43 yesterday but still less expensive (and less marketable) than WTI.

Vaca Muerta: may be living up to its namesake -- "dead." Link here, from Rigzone. Vaca Muerta is tracked here. That last entry there, back in December, 2018, suggested the Vaca Muera might produce as much as 60,000 bopd by 2022.
  • Argentina unlikely to be able to repay its record $57 billion bailout from the IMF, the government has cut spending (including on developing oil projects)
  • rig count has fallen from 43 (August, 2019) to 29 by the end of last year (2019)
  • article doesn't say how much the Vaca Muera is producing but says the Neuquén province is producing 167,000 bopd
  • Argentina refineries operating at 30% to 40% of normal levels due to 70% decline in gasoline demand and 50% decline in diesel sales;
  • it appears a minimum price of $40 to $50 per barrel is needed
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Back to Today's Bakken

Active rigs:

$26.345/7/202005/07/201905/07/201805/07/201705/07/2016
Active Rigs2264614927

Two wells coming off the confidential list today  -- 

Thursday, May 7, 2020: 23 for the month; 73 for the quarter, 300 for the year:
  • 36590, drl, Rimrock, Skunk Creek, 8-2-3-4H, South Forks, t--; cum 10K in 30 days;
  • 34165, drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUS Njos 5-36-35-157N-100W-LL MBH, Marmon, no production data,
RBN Energy: refineries' options for dealing with extraordinary times.
The COVID-19-induced social isolation and subsequent economic slowdown have caused major drops in U.S. refined products consumption, especially gasoline and jet fuel, which have experienced declines of as much as 44% and 70%, respectively, relative to similar periods in 2019. Diesel fuel consumption has been off as much as 20% on the same basis, and given that COVID is a global crisis, product exports have also fallen.
As a result, U.S. refinery utilization has dropped to less than 70% for the last few weeks, the lowest levels since September 2008 during Hurricane Ike. All this presents refiners with two challenges: (1) reduced total demand; and (2) the disproportionate decline in gasoline and jet fuel. Each refinery is configured differently and has a varying degree of flexibility to react to these challenges. Today, we discuss what refiners can do to adjust operations and product yields, and examine the point at which some refineries might be forced to shut down completely.