Sunday, May 3, 2020

Campaign 2020

 Page One
This Is Page Two

Links

A wartime president.
Delegate Count.

Power Line.


Updates

May 26, 2020: already forgot one of his campaign slogans.

May 23, 2020: Joe Biden: I'm going to beat Joe Biden.

May 22, 2020: Trump suffers from mainstream media constant pounding --


May 20, 2020: she should know.



May 3, 2020 -- Betting Odds: Trump up almost 9 points. Polls show Sleepy Joe leading Trump by more than 5 to 9 points in national polls and swing state polls.


Wuhan Flu: SARS-CoV-2 And COVID 19

This is Page Three


Coronavirus: statistics. By country. By state.

US re-opening, tracked here.

New York: mortality rate (new link noted June 1, 2020).

Updates


May 31, 2020: random update; some nice data points. So, now we have:

  • a virus that is not particularly infectious (this was suggested months ago, by the way), relative to smallpox, chickenpox, measles, and, the virus that causes the Trump Derangement Syndrome (which, by the way, that virus has still not been identified);
  • a virus that is not particularly deadly (CDC confirms, see link above);
  • a virus that pretty much hits those already with significant medical problems, and/or the elderly;
  • a virus, that compared to "seasonal flu," for which we have a vaccine, albeit very ineffective, that spares children and young adults;
May 30, 2020: mark these dates -- June 14 - June 21.
The Minneapolis riots broke out the night of May 28. On May 29, sympathetic riots broke out in NYC, Los Angeles, Dallas, other cities. These folks -- all of whom were wearing masks, of course -- were not practicing social distancing. Let's see if that affects the number of cases. The increase in deaths, if there are any, might not show up until a couple of weeks later. But certainly by the end of June we should have a good idea if the riots made the corona virus pandemic worse in the cities that were affected.
May 29, 2020: Norway vs Sweden, update.

May 27, 2020: the CDC is conflating corona virus numbers

May 25, 2020: something I've not seen addressed in mainstream media. Everyone agrees that testing for Wuhan flu is going to increase "exponentially" over the next few weeks. All things being equal, even if there is no "real" increase in the number of Wuhan flu cases, just the fact that more folks are being tested, the number of cases will increase. Two things: the federal government says lock downs in the US states can continue if there is a downward trend in the number of new cases being reported. Does the federal government know something the rest of us don't know? Second, if increased testing does not result in an "exponential" increase in the number of positive results -- what does that tell us about the pandemic? If there is something to this, we should see by following number of new cases by state. What state should we follow? Let's follow NY, LA, MI, for various reasons.

May 23, 2020: NY governor Cuomo under huge pressure. Says he was only following President Trump's guidance to explain New York state's huge Wuhan flu-related case fatality rate. The CDC confirms remarkably low Wuhan flu death rate.

May 22, 2020: Dak Prescott has still not signed. Does he really think there's no chance that there will be no NFL season this year?

May 18, 2020: weird Scandinavian graphs.

May 16, 2020: Tokyo and targeted surveillance.

May 8, 2020: Japan vs NYC. Data as of May 4, 2020.

May 8, 2020: must-watch video. Wiki entry.

May 5, 2020: by any measure, Sweden did much worse than its Scandinavian neighbors, and it wasn't even close

May 4, 2020: I'm not quite sure how to address the question but there must be some "political" correlation between those who felt, for example, under ObamaCare, that medical care must be rationed, and that folks with serious underlying medical conditions and/or over the age of 75 should not be aggressively treated vs those who now suggest that not one life should be lost to Wuhan flu if we can prevent it, no matter how much it costs. Mark Perry would be the guy to put up a Venn diagram and color in the area of those with cognitive dissonance. 
That was the whole reason behind the "stay-in-shelter" strategies -- to flatten the curve so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed. Under ObamaCare, that would not have been an issue. Hospitals would have had to form triage teams / "death committees" to decide who got treated and who didn't.

May 4, 2020: because of the way the CDC focuses on total number of cases (which makes little sense), Rhode Island is an outlier among the New England states. It does not show up among the list which includes MA, CT, NY, PA, and NJ. I was curious. Where does RI stack up when looking at numbers based on population?  I haven't changed any of the numbers in the spreadsheet below, except to add Rhode Island to the bottom of the spreadsheet. On a per capita basis, RI would rank #3, between CT and MA, for new cases in the past 24 hours. It would be incredibly interesting to remove nursing home numbers from all Wuhan flu statistics, but the only ones who know that number are the CDC and a few politicians who are intellectually curious. 

May 3, 2020: Governor Cuomo took the Swedish strategy route before he took Trump's advice to "shut down." I disagree with Dr Frieden's conjecture but I appreciated the op-ed:
Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, former head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and former commissioner of the city’s Health Department, says that if the state and city had adopted widespread social-distancing measures a week or two earlier, including closing schools, stores, and restaurants, the estimated death toll from the outbreak might have been reduced by 50 to 80 percent. Instead, New York mandated those measures after localities in states including California and Washington had done so.
May 3, 2020: tracking number of cases is irrelevant. Tracking deaths is somewhat more relevant. May 2, 2020, is a great milestone to begin such tracking: shelter-in-place orders are expiring in many states, protestors are becoming more vocal, and folks are flocking to the beaches, whether "allowed" or "not allowed." Ranked in order that the CDC ranked them on this date (total cases, which, of course, is irrelevant unless one has a hidden agenda).
Deaths - May 2, 2020
New Deaths Over Past 24 Hours
Total Deaths
% new deaths in this state vs top 11 states
% total deaths in this state vs top 11 states
NY
299
24368
23%
45%
NJ
204
7742
16%
14%
MA
130
3846
10%
7%
IL
102
2559
8%
5%
CA
77
2188
6%
4%
PA
125
2776
10%
5%
MI
154
4020
12%
7%
FL
50
1364
4%
3%
TX
25
874
2%
2%
CT
97
2436
8%
4%
LA
23
1993
2%
4%






1286
54166



Ranked in order of number of new deaths (in previous 24 hours) per one million population:
Deaths - May 2, 2020
State population in 100K
New Deaths Over Past 24 Hours
Total Deaths
% new deaths in this state vs top 11 states
% total deaths in this state vs top 11 states
Total Deaths/100K population
Total Deaths/100K as Precent Among Top 11 States
New Deaths/Million Populaton
NJ
90
204
7742
16%
14%
86.02
14%
2267
CT
40
97
2436
8%
4%
60.90
4%
2425
MA
70
130
3846
10%
7%
54.94
7%
1857
MI
100
154
4020
12%
7%
40.20
7%
1540
NY
200
299
24368
23%
45%
121.84
45%
1495
PA
130
125
2776
10%
5%
21.35
5%
962
IL
130
102
2559
8%
5%
19.68
5%
785
LA
40
23
1993
2%
4%
49.83
4%
575
FL
220
50
1364
4%
3%
6.20
3%
227
CA
400
77
2188
6%
4%
5.47
4%
193
TX
300
25
874
2%
2%
2.91
2%
83


May 3, 2020:


May Weather Forecast -- May 3, 2020


Pandemic Crisis Offers Glimpse Into Oil Industry's Future -- David Sheppard -- Financial Times -- May 3, 2020

Linked at paywall. Archived.


Opinions on both sides.
On one side stand executives like Lord Browne, who now chairs LetterOne, part owner of independent oil and gas producer Wintershall DEA, as well as sitting on the board of a biomedical institution researching potential vaccines for Covid-19. They believe the world will be changed so indelibly that oil demand will struggle to regain the upwards trajectory that has underpinned the industry for over a century. They see the potential for demand to peak earlier than expected, with a more rapid shift into renewable energy.

On the other side of the argument are those who think that efforts to mitigate climate change risk being derailed by cheap oil and a global depression that will suck up so much government time and stimulus money that climate efforts will be pushed aside. In this scenario, investment in the oil industry could fall so much that supply shortages eventually emerge, spiking prices higher.
And this:
The political backdrop for the oil industry is also less stable. Saudi Arabia’s initial response to the slowdown in oil consumption was to launch a price war with Russia, raising its production to maximum levels, partly in a bid to make up in volumes what it lost in price.
While the kingdom has since returned to restricting output, under pressure from US president Donald Trump, analysts believe that could be a portent of national oil companies realising that demand is going to peak sooner rather than later. For Saudi Arabia, which has 75 years’ worth of oil in the ground, the most rational approach may be to pump as hard as possible now.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Today's Rant

May 3, 2020: Sweden won the debate. I'm getting tired of the "blame game" and arguing about who won the debate. That's why I like watching poker. Poker players learn by playing. Poker players are forced to work with the hand they are dealt. Poker players cannot predict what cards they will be dealt, nor can they predict how their opponents will respond. When a hand is over, a hand is over. They move on to the next hand. They don't debate each hand until the cows come home. Good poker players learn from each hand but they don't need to talk about what they learned.
We are now ready to benefit from both the draconian lock down efforts and Sweden's "herd immunity" strategy.

1.The goal of the draconian lock down efforts was to flatten the curve. It was not to stop the spread of the virus, nor decrease the number of ultimate cases and ultimate deaths. It was to slow the spread of the virus, but even with a vaccine this virus will not be eradicated due to human efforts.

2. The powers-that-be were panicked over the thought that the heath systems would implode, that the heath care sector could not keep up. That was the purpose of slowing the spread, or "flattening the curve."

3. The health systems have now had time to prepare, the curves have flattened everywhere (with some notable exceptions).

4. We should now implement Sweden's strategy. Open "everything" up with targeted surveillance, and targeted responses.
 It will be interesting to see the number of corona-virus-associated deaths in southern California three weeks from now following the on-again-off-again opening of the southern California beaches.

Decades-Old Kraken Wells Shows 8-Fold Jump In Production -- May 3, 2020

The Kraken Bigfoot wells are tracked here. They are "monster" wells. In addition, they will positively impact neighboring, producing wells.

Example, this well:
  • 17812, 660, Kraken, Anderson 11-14H, Sanish, t6/09; cum 353K 3/20; huge jump in production; from 925 to 7529 bbls/month, that represents an 8-fold jump in production.
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN3-202031383538812912000
BAKKEN2-202028367538042747424522921759
BAKKEN1-202031409940332930473422922194
BAKKEN12-201931697573285808805622575553
BAKKEN11-201930752970317380869620516437
BAKKEN10-2019173434409542183966383808
BAKKEN9-20191649684317643757381775482
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-2019153435351403960308
BAKKEN3-201931925845153113624897
BAKKEN2-201927766707148978491135
BAKKEN1-2019288829841309760751

Other wells positively impacted by the Bigfoot wells:
  • 21381, 1,150, Kraken, Dinwoodie 11-14H, Sanish, t1/12; cum 277K 3/20; huge jump in production;
  • 22429, 743, Kraken, Reynold 11-14H, Sanish, t6/12; cum 270K 3/20; nice jump in production;
  • 22853, 687, Kraken, Isaac 11-23, Sanish, t7/12; cum 150K 3/20; small but definite jump in production.