Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Will Get Back To Blogging Thursday -- April 29, 2020

8:45 p.m. Central Time. Physically beat. Mentally exhausted. Ready to crash. But, before I do ...

What a great country. I'm not going to look at any "oil" stuff or do any blogging about the "current events."

Some YouTube and some social media.

Best social media line so far:
“Look Tina, I’m need you jog in place in a pantsuit with a bass guitar for five minutes and stay on rhythm.” - David Byrne
Life During Wartime, Talking Heads

Recommendation: "Masterclass Official Trailers." There are eighty-three of them. Each lasts about two minutes twenty seconds. I've watched about a dozen of them. Some of them more than once. My favorites, so far: Ron Finley, Gardening; Gabriela C├ímara, Mexican cooking; Joyce Carol Oates, the art of the short story; and, I've only begun. Yet to watch: Penn and Teller; Bob Igor.  And 78 more.

What's so great about "Twin Peaks"?



I think I "quit" watching television after seeing "Twin Peaks."



A COVID-19 survivor, but still lots of fun:



And for those who missed this the first eight times I have posted this:

-- from the accordion player, hereself: I first heard this tune on youtube. I loved it but I couldn't find any music for it so I had to learn it by ear. 

I'm not sure but I believe I have connected a couple of dots regarding the accordion player. She was known as "fantinigirl92" on YouTube for quite some time, then disappeared for several years. Now it appears she is back, having graduated from university (Edinburgh) and has a name: Lana Elaine Fraser. I'm not entirely sure but it seems they are one and the same. 

Enough of this. See you tomorrow. Good luck to all. 

Update On The Oil Tankers Off Long Beach Port -- Just A Drop In The Ocean -- Much More Stored Offshore Elsewhere -- April 29, 2020

Link here.

Data points:
  • drone footage released on April 23, 2020, by the US Coast Guard showed a total of 27 large oil tankers floating off the coast of southern California
  • the vessels had reportedly been turned into storage tanks while waiting to dock at port
  • spokesperson says twenty tankers in the area
  • fourteen of them expected to remain there indefinitely or "for along time"
  • six tankers should leave within the next five days
  • five more tankers are expected to arrive this week
  • of those five yet-to-arrive tankers, four of them are set to unload their cargo while one such vessel will anchor for a "long time"
  • Reuters says 160 million bbls of oil are currently being stored in large tankers outside shipping ports due to a lack of onshore storage space
  • since very large crude carriers (VLCCs) were chartered to store oil at sea in February, the number has increased to 60, and is forecast to triple in the upcoming months. The VLCCs are reportedly mostly located near Singapore and in the US Gulf Coast
  • the current oversupply, which has already reached around 9 million barrels per day
I know nothing about the credibility of the linked source, but it certainly can't be any worse than CNN or The New York Times.

VLCCs / ULCCs are leasing for around $50,000 / day.

Fortunately for all involved, no risk of hurricanes.

Hess With Permits For A 4-Well AN-Lone Tree Pad In Antelope Oil Field -- April 29, 2020

Active rigs:

$17.434/30/202004/30/201904/30/201804/30/201704/30/2016
Active Rigs3164614929

Four new permits, #37542 - #37545, inclusive --
  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Antelope (McKenzie)
  • Comments: 
    •  Hess has permits for a 4-well AN-Lone Tree pad sited in Lot 4 section 12-152-95, Antelope, around 1400 FSL, all 344 FWL; see graphic below;
Seven permits renewed (again, lots of typos on the NDIC daily activity report)
  • Rimrock (4): four Skunk Creek permits in Dunn County;
  • Petro-Hunt (2): two USA permits in McKenzie County
  • NP Resources: a Little Mo Federal permit in Billings County
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported completed:
  • 37007, SI/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Chase Douglas 1A-32-29-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, t--: cum 8K over 31 days;
  • 36564, drl/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Emerson Claire 33-28-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, t--: cum 33K over 3 months;
  • 36565, SI/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Charlotte Elizabeth 3-34-27-159N-100W MBH, Blue Ridge, t--: cum 38K over 3 months;
  • 34409, SI/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dois 6-19-18-158N-95W TFH, Rainbow, t--: cum 13K over 31 days;
  • 34411, SI/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dois 7-19-18-158N-95W TFH, Rainbow, t--: cum 14K over 31 days;
********************************
Hess Permits: AN-Lone Tree Pad

Days Of Supply -- US Crude Oil -- Unprecedented -- Never Thought I Would See This -- Over 40 Days Of Supply -- April 29, 2020

Gasoline demand: pending. Link here.

Days of US supply, crude oil: link here: pending. This, I believe, only applies to onshore storage -- does not includes the 20 million bbls of Saudi crude oil off the west coast. 


Demand:

Gas buddy:
  • Wisconsin: 91 cents
  • Oklahoma City: 99 cents
  • Louisiana 97 cents 
Crawfish fest continues: second week on Sophia's patio. Fourth crawfish dinner in ten days.

Anticipation: Texas governor will not extend "shelter-in-place" once it expires at midnight tonight. First place I will visit tomorrow -- local Lego mini-bricks and figures. No interest in visiting restaurants. I have learned to have coffee at home for breakfast -- along with chorizo and eggs; jalapeno spam for lunch; and crawfish for dinner. LOL. Barbershops will remain closed, I believe. Sophia will give me my weekly haircut (trim) tomorrow.

Fishing: Sophia and I had our first fishing excursion last night. An unforeseen error on my part disrupted our plans. Sophia did not mind. She just enjoyed watching the fast current after the heavy rains overnight. We will try again tonight, although it will be a bit cooler. The creek should be just as high as yesterday after another strong rainstorm last night.

A Little Bit Of Interactive Fun For The Day -- Port Of Long Beach -- ULCCs And VLCCs -- April 29, 2020

Link here.

At the map at the link, zoom in / zoom out. Place cursor on any of the icons to find the name and the type of ship.

Saudi tankers inside the oval in the screenshot below.


Shutting In Old Wells In Aging Oil Fields Carries Big Risks For Saudi Arabia, Russia -- April 29, 2020

I think Russia and Saudi Arabia are in the same boat: aging fields, shutting in wells carry big risks. Link here.


Bakken wells will, in general, come back stronger than ever after being shut in for a few months (or more).

Oasis To Stop Operations In The Bakken -- April 29, 2020

I was anticipating this: Oasis to stop operations in the Bakken. On another note, their recent wells have not been all that impressive lately. At least that's my opinion, based on very, very anecdotal information. Reuters link here.

**************************
Coincidences

The other day I posted a note regarding the Bay of Fundy. I had been reading a biography of Wyndham Lewis -- it was my second reading of that particular biography -- where the Bay of Fundy is a big part of his very, very young life. I had fun with Fundy and than moved on.

This morning, at breakfast, while continue to read about evolution in Fortey's book on velvet worms and horseshoe crabs, there is was -- page 210 -- a reference to the Bay of Fundy. Wow, what a coincidence.

But there was even more.

For years, I've been saying that reptiles are a "grab bag" of animals, not well defined, and "getting more press" then they may deserve. Like amphibians they were a crucial transitional group and have had their fifteen minutes of fame. To me, reptiles are defined more by what they are not (or do not have) than what they are (or what they have). I've never read anything along that line before.

Until today. In Fortey's book, page 211, he states much more eloquently than I regarding the reptiles.

Many of the skeletal features of more advanced living reptiles [are] lacking in the very first of their kind. These egg-laying animals prospered, and radiated into a range of ecological niches on land eventually in the air; some became "ruling reptiles," while others returned to the sea. Many did not survive the mass extinction at the end of the Cretaceous Period 65 million years ago.
Fortey refers to these as "egg-laying animals because:
My more rigorous colleagues would expect me at this point to note that reptiles are not a natural group in modern zoological understanding One group of reptiles gave rise to mammals, and another to birds, which are both natural groups descended from common ancestors. This means that reptiles are a set of branches in the tree of life from which some derived branches have been "lopped off"; so they are not the complete ticket.
Reptiles are united by retaining the general characteristics of laying amniote eggs and having neither fur nor feathers nor hot blood (but that may be no longer true, either). So if we were being persnickety, we might always refer to "reptiles" in quotes; but as Stephen J. Gold pointed out some time ago, nearly everyone has a good idea of what the term means, so let's stick with it!
Portcullis: word of the day. Hint: think of all those old English movies about the "knights of the round table."

EIA Weekly Petroleum Report -- April 29, 2020


Weekly EIA petroleum report: link here --
  • weekly change, US crude oil in storage: up another whopping 9.0 million bbls
  • total US crude oil in storage: 526.7 million bbls, or about 10% above an already "fat" five-year average for this time of the year;
  • refineries operating at 69.6% capability -- about where it has been for the past few weeks;
  • gasoline, over four-week period: down by 43.7% year/year;
  • distillate, over four-week period: down by 15.1% year/year;
WTI; following the release of that data:
  • surged, 28%, up 3.47, to $15.81
  • OPEC basket: at the same link shows price from yesterday, not the current price provided by OPEC, $13.30
  • WTI, back to a premium over OPEC basket
Re-balancing (or should we now start calling it a "glut"?):
Week
Week Ending
Change
Million Bbls Storage
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Week 6
January 4, 2019
0.0
441.4
Week 7
January 9, 2019
-1.7
439.7
Week 8
January 16, 2019
-2.7
437.1
Week 9
January 24, 2019
8.0
445.0
Week 68
March 18, 2020
2.0
453.7
Week 69
March 25, 2020
1.6
455.4
Week 70
April 1, 2020
13.8
469.2
Week 71
April 8, 2020
15.2
484.4
Week 72
April 15, 2020
19.2
503.6
Week 72
April 22, 2020
15.0
518.6
Week 73
April 29, 2020
9.0
527.6

Jet fuel delivered:
Jet Fuel Delivered, Change, Four-Week/Four-Week


Week
Week Ending
Change
Week 0
March 11, 2020
-12.80%
Week 1
March 18, 2020
-12.60%
Week 2
March 25, 2020
-8.90%
Week 3
April 1, 2020
-16.40%
Week 4
April 8, 2020
-0.22%
Week 5
April 15, 2020
-39.70%
Week 6
April 22, 2020
-53.60%
Week 7
April 29, 2020
-61.60%

Imports:
Crude Oil Imports




Week (week-over-week)
Week Ending
Raw Data, millions of bbls
Change (millions of bbls)
Four-week period comparison
Week 0
March 11, 2029
6.4
0.174

Week 1
March 18, 2020
6.5
0.127

Week 2
March 25, 2020
6.1
-0.422

Week 3
April 1, 2020
6.0
-0.070

Week 4
April 8, 2020
5.9
-0.173

Week 5
April 15, 2020
5.7
-0.194

Week 6
April 22, 2020
5.6
-0.700

Week 7
April 29, 2020
5.3
0.365
-19.700%

OPEC Basket Drops Again -- Now Down To $12.41 -- April 29, 2020

OPEC basket: drops again, now at $12.41. Link here. I have trouble believing the 15,000 Saudi princes are happy with MbS right now, giving away their life-blood for less than $13/bbl, and draining their country's foreign exchange reserves.

Just posted, overnight, Saudi's foreign exchange reserves -- House of Saud in deep doo-doo:



In April, 2020, Saudi Arabia will be borrowing $60 billion. I don't know if that will be reflected in the foreign exchange reserves. If so, we will see a jump in reserves next month. On the other hand, if the $60 million borrowed is necessary to pay for on-going budgetary requirements we won't see that bump.

Last month it was said that Saudi Arabia was building up its foreign exchange reserves in preparation for market-share / price-war scenario. Whether that was true or not, it now seems moot.

*****************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$14.254/29/202004/29/201904/29/201804/29/201604/29/2015
Active Rigs3064622986

Two wells coming off the confidential list today  --

Wednesday, April 29, 2020: 48 for the month; 48 for the quarter, 292 for the year:
  • 36258, 1,493, Hess, RS-Harstad-155-91-0433H-2, Stanley, t10/19; cum 64K 2/20; a 25K month; frack data not scanned in yet;
  • 36257, 896, Hess, RS-Harstad-155-91-0433H-3, Stanley, t11/19; cum 38K 2/29;
RBN Energy: big changes impacting ethane and LPG markets. Archived.
The crude oil market garners all the headlines in the COVID/OPEC+ era, and understandably so. But the NGL market is also in turmoil and deserves attention too. Declining volumes of associated gas from crude-focused plays will soon be cutting into NGL supplies. Demand for natural gasoline has been hit hard, along with the crude, motor gasoline and jet fuel markets.
But propane prices relative to crude oil have soared to historically high ratios, in part reflecting recent strong international demand for U.S. LPG exports. As for ethane — the lightest NGL, and the most important feedstock for the Gulf Coast petchem sector — it is going through wrenching changes, with major implications for both suppliers and steam crackers. Today, we begin a short series on the major dislocations that crude-market chaos is spurring in NGL production, ethane rejection, feedstock selection by steam crackers, and ethane/LPG exports.

The Faye / Don Juan Pad, Elidah Oil Field -- April 29, 2020

From yesterday, new permits:
  • BR has permits for two Faye wells in NENE 14-151-97, Elidah oil field; both 290 FNL, about 650 FEL
  • BR also has a permit for a Don Juan well in NENE 14-151-97, Dimmick Lake; 290 FNL 581 FEL;
The "Faye" pad:
  • 33861, 226, BR, Faye 1A MBH, Elidah, t7/18; cum 307K 2/20;
  • 33860, 475, BR, Faye 1B UTFH, Elidah, t7/18; cum 187K 2/20;
  • 33859, 669, BR, Faye 1C MBH, Elidah, t7/18; cum 285K 2/20;
  • 33858, 733, BR, Faye 1D UTFH, Elidah, t7/18; cum 233K 2/20;
From the south, running north, and horizontal parallel to the "Faye" horizontals. The Faye wells were
  • 19715,1,068, CLR, Don 1-23H, Elidah, t6/11; cum 314K 2/29;
Production period of interest, the Faye pads noted above were fracked in 6/18::
BAKKEN1-201931371239482120681636112788
BAKKEN12-2018314942492328681368712273995
BAKKEN11-20183059225583319743693422552
BAKKEN10-201831750776614027158231533470
BAKKEN9-20183083158517498318325158462100
BAKKEN8-20182137523445495865805568770
BAKKEN7-20182358165758638110501102060
BAKKEN6-20182774077491993311964116500
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-2018281125118049024842274210
BAKKEN3-20183112031401533271427140
BAKKEN2-2018281191938383288728870
BAKKEN1-20183112811427433286028600

The graphic:


Possibly coincidental, but I doubt it: the movie.