Monday, April 20, 2020

Civil Disobedience On Social Media -- April 20, 2020

I don't follow the news or social media often enough to know how fast things are changing, or even if they are changing at all, but if there is talk of social disobedience, this screenshot is as good as any to explain to folks why social disobedience might be an "it."

For the archives. I have no dog in this fight. I don't golf. LOL.

In our apartment complex, we now have 3-year-old kids outside wearing surgical masks. With no one else around except their parents.

On another note, the tea leaves suggest MLB season is "lost" this year. 

Trump Was Correct -- Again -- April 20, 2020

Full transcript from PowerLine:
Evidence is mounting, via antibody tests, that far more people in the U.S. have been infected with the Wuhan virus than has previously been known. The Santa Clara study that Dr. Jay Bhattacharya described here is part of that body of evidence, as is a study released today that covered Los Angeles County:

Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county’s adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection.
That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April.

*** The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.***

This is great news because it equates to a fatality rate in a range between .0014 and .0027.
Standard seasonal flu viruses typically have a fatality rate around .001. So the evidence increasingly suggests that the Wuhan virus is a little more dangerous than seasonal influenza, but of the same order of magnitude. This would appear to have significant public policy implications.
Be sure to scroll through the comments, especially those with statistics. It's quite staggering how the WHO, CDC, and mainstream media presented this pandemic. The Wuhan flu statistics suggest this may not be worse than seasonal flu, and, oh, by the way, we have a vaccine for "seasonal flu."

Was WTI As Low As Minus $40/Bbl Today? April 20, 2020

Did y'all notice this?

WTI closed at a minus $16.20/bbl. But it was actually worse during the day.

That -$16.20/bbl was actually $21.43/bbl better than it's low. Apparently WTI traded as low as -$37.63/bbl.

One wonders if mom and pop mineral owners will be required to pay operators upwards of $40/bbl? LOL.

WTI Closes: A Negative $16.20/Bbl -- Fast And Furious -- Notes From All Over, Mid-Afternoon Edition -- April 20, 2020

Breaking: Focus On Fracking, April 19, 2020, edition has been posted.
The weekly update is usually posted Sunday; internet access issues accounted for the delay. The official date of the post is April 20, 2020, but "technically" it's the April 19, 2020, edition, at least by my calculations. Macht nichts. It will take me awhile to go through it. The writer highlights two items:
  • The writer estimates US production cuts at 1 million bpd for the next two months...no special insight, the big round number just makes the math easier.
  • OPEC's 9.7 million barrel per day cut was based on October 2018 production...why October 2018? because it was their highest production in 3 years....based on their February production, their cut is closer to 7.2 million barrels per day....they'd have to cut another 9.3 million bpd to balance supply and projected demand...
Oil: fascinating.

Recommendation: keep your gasoline tanks full; don't let them get below 3/4ths or maybe even 7/8ths full. 

PowerLine: link here. The headline -- Saudi Arabian tankers streaming to America. Okay, so what? Where will they unload that oil? Lots of oil storage capacity remains mid-continent US, but I doubt there's much storage along the coast.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse:
WTI closes at a minus $16.20/bbl. That means that there were traders who were committed to taking physical oil -- this was not a "paper trade" -- the traders had actually committed for real, physical black oil but they had no place to store it. They scrambled to find places to store it; they couldn't find any storage and had no choice but to sell it back to perhaps the company who was "holding" the oil -- and that company -- free market capitalism -- "kept" it or took it back as long as the "owner" was willing to pay $16.20/bbl. At least that's how I understand it but I don't understand the global trading market.
*****************************
Back to the Bakken
Active rigs:

-$16.204/20/202004/20/201904/20/201804/20/201704/20/2016
Active Rigs3163594928

Four new permits, #37526 - #37529, inclusive -- the daily activity report only reports two new permits (#37526, #37527) but "well search" suggests there were four new permits as noted below --
  • Operator: Crescent Point Energy
  • Field: Dublin
  • Comments:
    • Crescent Point Energy has permits for four Pankake wells in SESE/SWSE 31-158-99, Dublin oil field;
    • the wells will be sited in section 31, but will south into sections 6/7 where is one producing well -- 
    • 21043, 554, Bruin, Pankake 157-99-6A-7-1H, Dubline, t12/11;cum 238K 7/19; offline 8/19; remains offline 2/20;
One permit canceled:
  • Bruin, #25445, Ann H. Thome 5-25-36H; Strandahl oil field;

Tea Leaves Suggest "We" Are Reaching A Tipping Point -- Monday, April 20, 2020

Crash: oilprice server has crashed. I assume the site was overwhelmed with hits. Truly amazing. Third try: in. Other links at the site won't load. -- 1:24 p.m. CT -- April 20, 2020.
If folks don't see this crash as bigger than the 2008 / 2009 crash, .... I mentioned that some time ago. Spot price for OPEC basket was a minus $7 / bbl last week, so WTI has a lot farther to fall. And if anyone missed the story, Saudi Aramco is buying up assets from major European oil companies. If folks haven't listened to the rants in the movie Network, it might be a good time to re-watch the movie.

Lock down: tea leaves suggest "we" are reaching tipping point on nationwide / statewide lock downs. I'm looking for major news by the end of the week.

WTI: tea leaves suggest time for Trump administration to take action against Russia, Saudi Arabia. One item, link here.

*******************************
Cardinals In Sophia's Back Yard

There are a lot of cardinals in this neighborhood. At least three cardinals -- probably a family -- routinely show up at Sophia's house. On the way to the park we saw another male cardinal.




MRO Reports Two Monster Wells -- Already Choked Back? April 20, 2020

The wells:
  • 35632, 6,260, MRO, Waldorf USA 12-16H, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 157K 2/20; a 47K month; note the IP;
  • 35631, 5,190, MRO, Eager USA 12-16TFH, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 109K 12/19; a 47K month, off line 1/10; remains off line 2/20;
See this post for graphics, neighboring wells, other background information regarding these wells, link here.
 
**********************************
Turtles At Local Creek

Feeding the turtles at the local creek.




Nine Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Over The Weekend, Monday; WTI At $11.60 -- Historic Crash -- April 20, 2020

WTI: drops to record low of $8.80/bbl in mid-day trading. Could oil go "negative"?

OPEC Basket, April 17, 2020, link here: $18.16.  

OPEC Basket, oilprice, link here:  $17.73.

*********************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$11.604/20/202004/20/201904/20/201804/20/201704/20/2016
Active Rigs3263594928

Wells coming off the confidential list today --  

Monday, April 20, 2020: 27 for the month; 27 for the quarter, 282 for the year:
  • 36412, 1,734, EOG, Clarks Creek 47-0706H, Clarks Creek, t10/19; cum 136K 2/10; a 37K month;
  • 35632, 6,260, MRO, Waldorf USA 12-16H, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 157K 2/20; a 47K month; note the IP;
  • 35631, 5,190, MRO, Eager USA 12-16TFH, Four Bears, t10/19; cum 109K 12/19; a 47K month, off line 1/10; remains off line 2/20;
  • 33621, drl, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 6-1-12TFH, Sand Creek,
Sunday, April 19, 2020: 23 for the month; 23 for the quarter, 278 for the year:
  • 35817, 411, Oasis, Oasis Meiers 5692 11-19 11T, Alger, t11/19; cum 45K 2/20;
  • 35123, loc, XTO, Prairie Federal 31X-30B, Haystack Butte,
  • 33810, drl, BR, CCU Gopher 8-2-15TFH, Corral Creek,
  • 33623, drl, Slawson, Gunslinger Federal 5-1-12H, Sand Creek,
Saturday, April 18, 2020: 19 for the month; 19 for the quarter, 274 for the year:
  • 35122, drl, XTO, Prairie Federal 31X-30E, Haystack Butte,
RBN Energy: oil natural gas, and NGLs in post-COVID, 2021 - 2025 markets.
In an energy market filled with incalculable uncertainty, it is no surprise that most of the focus is on the short term: production shut-ins, collapsing demand, refinery unit shutdowns, ballooning storage inventories and continually weakening prices. But even in the face of such dire circumstances in the weeks just ahead, there remains a cautious optimism — relatively speaking — for the resumption of some kind of new normal on the other side of COVID. You can see that expectation in the numbers, with the WTI May 2020 contract settling on Friday at $18.27/bbl, but the May 2020 contract up to $35.52/bbl. Granted, that May 2021 price would have been catastrophic if viewed in January 2020, but now it’s a bullish 95% increase over the front month.  It is that shift in perspective that underlies the fundamentals content that we developed for our two-day Spring 2020 Virtual School of Energy, held last week in the cloud: how things were viewed BEFORE the meltdown, and how things look AFTER — over the next five years. Did you miss the conference? Not to worry. The entire 14 hours of content are available online in our encore edition. It’s almost like being there! Today’s advertorial blog reviews some of the most important findings we covered at School of Energy and summarizes our overall virtual conference curriculum.
Are we starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, or is it a head fake? Most states have imposed lockdown measures, shuttering businesses and restricting social contact, but the number of COVID cases and deaths continues to rise, albeit at a slower rate. Here in the Lone Star State, Gov. Greg Abbott is doing a limited reopening of state services and businesses starting this week. Are we ready for that? It is impossible to know whether we are taking two steps forward but will be forced to take one step back in a few weeks. But regardless of how the timing of the reopening plays out, most of us believe that the U.S. — and the rest of the world, for that matter — will be open for business at some point in the hopefully not too distant future, so that the second quarter of 2020 will turn out to be the worst of the pandemic. Let’s assume that’s the most likely scenario, if for no other reason than an extension of the lockdown for the rest of the year is a concept so dire that we would rather not contemplate the implications — not yet anyway.

It's Getting Curiouser And Curiouser -- April 20, 2020


Something tells me things have gone awry. Seriously awry.

One of the first things I'm going to check tomorrow: OPEC basket at this link

Later. Things have gone very awry. WTI closes at a minus $16.20/bbl.
That means that there were traders who were committed to taking physical oil -- this was not a "paper trade" -- the traders had actually committed for real, physical black oil but they had no place to store it. They scrambled to find places to store it; they couldn't find any storage and had no choice but to sell it back to perhaps the company who was "holding" the oil -- and that company -- free market capitalism -- "kept" it or took it back as long as the "owner" was willing to pay $16.20/bbl. At least that's how I understand it but I don't understand global trading.
****************************
The Movie Page

It's too late; I won't stay up to see the end of the movie. Okay, twenty more minutes -- maybe I can "last" that long.

TCM: Babyface. The 1933 version.

Based on a story by Darryl F. Zanuck.

I was unable to find the "back story." On whom did Zanuck base the story? I have my hunch.

Primary clues: banking, sex, Paris.

Clues: sex (lots of sex, pre-code-Hollywood); woman works her way to the top; moves from NYC to Paris; banking; 1930's.  In real life, husband of whom I am thinking became a maker of experimental films in the late 1940s. Incredibly coincidental. I'm sure I'm wrong, but ...

**************************
Cryptic

Due to nationwide / statewide lock down, all soccer activities for Olivia -- who lives and breathes soccer -- have been canceled for several weeks now. We had a slight ray of hope the other day that there might be some relaxing of the lock down that would allow some soccer practice, but as recently as a few days ago, that fell through.

Then, out of nowhere, moments ago, 12:39 a.m., Monday morning, April 20, 2020, I get a computer-generated e-mail note that practice is scheduled for Tuesday, April 21, 2020, but the input would have come from the coach, suggesting that there has been a "break" in the lock down.

I know the Texas governor has relaxed / eased some restrictions; President Trump has become more vocal about getting the country back to work; and, Tutor Time, Sophia's day care program, has said it will re-open on a limited basis starting April 27, 2020.

The tea leaves suggest -- at least in the local area -- things are starting to move. Very, very interesting. Several weeks ago, the president originally suggested the country would start to "re-open" by Easter.
 We're a week out from Easter. One wonders.

I'm getting far out in front of my headlights, but if the country starts to move / re-open prior to May 1, 2020, things could move very, very quickly.

Anticipation -- April 19, 2020

Graphic: pending.

The wells:
  • 17091, 575, Kraken, Meiers 11-19H, Sanish, t7/08; cum 192K 2/20;
  • 23144, 484, Kraken, Lee 19-20-29H, Sanish, t9/12; cum 163K 2/20;
  • 19081, 788, Kraken, Lynn 19-20-29H, Sanish, t2/13; cum 244K 2/20;
  • 23145, 714, Kraken, Luke 19-20-29H, Sanish, t10/12; cum 188K 2/20;
  • 17098, 516, Kraken, Domaskin 11-20H, Sanish, t9/08; cum 233K 2/20;
  • 23713, 319, Kraken, Diamond J 41-20H, Sanish, t2/13; cum 106K 2/20;
This is quite interesting. The graphic is very, very interesting. I'll post it when I get caught up.

17091:
BAKKEN11-20193077396116317880578
BAKKEN10-20193192092219559383718
BAKKEN9-201930945935203796424792
BAKKEN8-2019311433138520271462401267
BAKKEN7-2019317244683112818267429
BAKKEN6-2019296787104494766109513
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-2019182294461882607129
BAKKEN2-2019283752462755301700
BAKKEN1-2019314334833186173690

23144:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2020291857179735451890531634
BAKKEN1-20203120722175390821091193669
BAKKEN12-20192819512218350019862471515
BAKKEN11-2019302014169335342050111829
BAKKEN10-201923170620793142173751568
BAKKEN9-2019261770140840271801531616
BAKKEN8-2019311604165356901633961382
BAKKEN7-2019311504159765011531560848
BAKKEN6-20192917321870640717634081212
BAKKEN5-201924530122651150493
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-2019132664832108407520
BAKKEN2-20192861247748311718070
BAKKEN1-2019316597295367610513
BAKKEN12-201831583476475195517380
BAKKEN11-201830696749596246222520

19081:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202029173217922417175141544
BAKKEN1-2020312123215630892146151883
BAKKEN12-20193124772607350225052222038
BAKKEN11-201929240624153274243202226
BAKKEN10-2019312851273838542882102657
BAKKEN9-2019272784273036702814202659
BAKKEN8-20193130713427397731051352815
BAKKEN7-201930377137465887381316931999
BAKKEN6-201924334128306368337813861874
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-2019122772371535174330
BAKKEN2-20192867070335212008360
BAKKEN1-20193170995437512249760
BAKKEN12-20183157446430010188010
BAKKEN11-201830706491370130910990

23145:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2020291302126813061823769851
BAKKEN1-20203119231945187926922009438
BAKKEN12-2019311733205022902426209880
BAKKEN11-20193018271707207618491498141
BAKKEN10-20193120562097255220801288577
BAKKEN9-2019301872160529441894935810
BAKKEN8-2019281740203235951761936687
BAKKEN7-20193116001861466516194201077
BAKKEN6-201928205716125834208201942
BAKKEN5-2019228807935750567
BAKKEN4-2019001970000
BAKKEN3-20190000000
BAKKEN2-201926649706350966325303
BAKKEN1-2019318379774829590711
BAKKEN12-2018318447394501249802230

17098:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-202029199249192270364
BAKKEN1-20203143748755144580117
BAKKEN12-20193087197396688846602
BAKKEN11-20193010351003131110550845
BAKKEN10-20192711671201162811893998
BAKKEN9-2019281538160423231568701360
BAKKEN8-20193118241800305518591471557
BAKKEN7-20193016131618373016434111112
BAKKEN6-20192616121404422216431081405
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-2019001470000
BAKKEN3-2019183542482027726460
BAKKEN2-20192860171937813149500
BAKKEN1-20192364147455811259430
BAKKEN12-2018244254922328296610

23713:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2020291622168515651541201318
BAKKEN1-20202417731703180416852881201
BAKKEN12-20192418562272166617634961075
BAKKEN11-20193026662518259725331792144
BAKKEN10-20193130633227288229101222574
BAKKEN9-2019283100276328422945842722
BAKKEN8-20193138644131351536711063410
BAKKEN7-201931349936433969358711342329
BAKKEN6-20192433392836507934232323073
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-20190000000
BAKKEN3-2019192942412043882530
BAKKEN2-2019284084611285151510
BAKKEN1-2019314856991045350287