Friday, March 27, 2020

Key Components For "Those" Checks -- March 27, 2020

Link here.

Key aspects:
Who is eligible for a recovery rebate? All U.S. residents or citizens with adjusted gross income under $75,000 ($112,500 for head of household and $150,000 married), who are not the dependent of another taxpayer and have a work-eligible Social Security Number, are eligible for the full $1,200 ($2,400 married) rebate. They are also eligible for an additional $500 per child. A typical family of four is eligible for a $3,400 recovery rebate.

What about taxpayers with adjusted gross income over $75,000 ($112,500 for head of household and $150,000 married)? Are they eligible to receive any rebate? The rebate amount is reduced by $5 for each $100 that a taxpayer’s income exceeds the phase-out threshold. The amount is completely phased-out for single filers with incomes exceeding $99,000, $146,500 for head of household filers with one child, and $198,000 for joint filers with no children. For a typical family of four, the amount is completely phased out for those with adjusted gross incomes exceeding $218,000.

What if my income was above the threshold in 2019, but I’ve lost my job due to the corona virus? Can I still get a rebate check? If your income in 2019 was in the phase-out range you would still receive a partial rebate based on your 2019 tax return. However, the rebate is actually an advance on a tax credit that you may claim on your 2020 tax return. If your income is lower in 2020 than in 2019, any additional credit you are eligible for will be refunded or reduce your tax liability when you file your 2020 tax return next year.

Is the rebate taxable or will I have to pay back any amount if the rebate based on my 2019 return is larger than what it would be if based on my 2020 tax year return? No, the rebate is treated like other refundable tax credits, such as the child tax credit and earned income tax credit, and not considered income. Moreover, if the credit amount you qualify based on 2020 income is less than what you qualify for based on your 2019 tax return, it does not have to be paid back.

Crude Oil Reserves -- Commentary -- March 27, 2020

The purpose of this post: to consider whether it is likely that crude oil will come off the global market a lot faster than folks think possible, and the implications for countries and companies that cut production (or not).

Part One

I don't know if this is generally accepted but this is what wiki says which fits with how I understand this:
Oil reserves denote the amount of crude oil that can be technically recovered at a cost that is financially feasible at the present price of oil.
Hence reserves will change with the price, unlike oil resources, which include all oil that can be technically recovered at any price.
Reserves may be for a well, a reservoir, a field, a nation, or the world. Different classifications of reserves are related to their degree of certainty.

The total estimated amount of oil in an oil reservoir, including both producible and non-producible oil, is called oil in place. However, because of reservoir characteristics and limitations in petroleum extraction technologies, only a fraction of this oil can be brought to the surface, and it is only this producible fraction that is considered to be reserves. The ratio of reserves to the total amount of oil in a particular reservoir is called the recovery factor.
Determining a recovery factor for a given field depends on several features of the operation, including method of oil recovery used and technological developments.
US crude oil reserves, under the definition above, will fluctuate based on the price of oil. When oil trades in a narrow band, year-over-year, the reserves assessment/estimate should not change much. When the price of oil changes significantly year-over-year, one would assume that oil reserves in the US would change (and perhaps significantly) year-over-year.

It will be interesting to see if any "rating" agency announces new numbers for US reserves based on $15 WTI.

Definitions at wiki and SEC rules that changed effective January, 2010.

Proven reserves (90% confidence, 1P, P1):
  • proven developed (PD) -- minimal additional investment (advantaged oil?)
  • proven undeveloped (PUD) -- additional capital investment needed
Unproven reserves:
  • probable (50% confidence, P50, 2P, P2); P2 includes proven (PD, PUD) and probable
  • possible (10% confidence, P10, 3P, P3); P3 includes proven (PD, PUD) probable, and possible 
Part Two 

Saudis "reserves" have never changed over decades.

US "reserves" have changed significantly (up and down) over decades.

Russian "reserves": I don't know. I assume somewhere in between Saudi (no change) and the US (quite volatile).

Part Three


Oil coming off market. I think we will be surprised how fast crude oil comes off the market.

From twitter:


By country:

Petro-states (Mideast, Venezuela, Libya, Mexico): could be hard hit with no financial reserve. Won't be able to compete with Russia, Saudi Arabia which can lease VLCC to store crude oil. Iraq, apparently, is in particularly bad shape.


Iraq, link here:
“My main worry today is not on shale,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Agency (IEA), told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick earlier this week. Birol suggested countries like Iraq, Algeria and Nigeria — all OPEC producers — were in a “very, very difficult situation” and would require support from the rest of the world. [Said no one ever.]

They are facing major fiscal strains. Many of them will have difficulties to pay the salaries for the public sector, spending for health, for education, which in turn may provide social pressures in those countries.

Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, is thought to be particularly exposed to an all-out price war because it has one of the least diversified economies of the producer group — despite relatively low production costs.
US oil imports from OPEC: Iraq is exporting to the US almost the same amount that Saudi Arabia is exporting to the US. Something has got to give -- Saudi vs Iraq.


Canada: costing more to ship it than to buy it. Accounts for 5 million bopd US imports.

This is how it plays out:
  • marginal US companies fail
  • marginal OPEC+ countries unable to produce; societies fail; funding unavailable;
  • majors will "protect" only their most important global plays; the others end production;
  • Russia agrees not to increase production;
  • Saudi won't increase exports; 
  • oil production will drop a lot faster than folks think;
Posted late morning / early afternoon Saturday, March 28, 2020.

**********************************
Part IV

6:19 p.m. CT, Saturday, March 28, 2020: just announced. Rosneft (the company that started the OPEC+ spat with Saudi Arabia) just sold all its Venezuelan assets to the Russian government. Huge bailout. Huge. Rosneft isn't holding stranded assets on its book, but will be in a position to buy them back when things are "back to normal." The question is whether Rosneft's former assets will still be producing crude oil for export or if this is Venezuela crude oil taken off the global market. As of January, 2020:
  • Venezuela was exporting one million bopd
  • In terms of customers, Russia’s Rosneft was the largest receiver and intermediary of Venezuelan oil with 33.5% of total exports, followed by state-run China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) and its units with 11%, and Cuba’s state-run Cubametales with 7%. 


Notes From All Over -- Late Evening Edition -- March 27, 2020

Breaking news: "seasonal flu" is now an epidemic

Inflation:

Demand:


Canada:


From thebalancecareers:
Retirees (those who spend at least 20 years in the military and draw retired pay) can be recalled to active duty for life. However, the policy established in DOD Directive 1352.1 - Management and Mobilization of Regular and Reserve Retired Military Members, makes the recall to active duty unlikely for those who have been retired for more than five years, and those over age 60.
Wuhan flu, US: the more testing that is done, the more cases that will be reported in the US. The number of cases will have little correlation with the number of new deaths. However, over time, case fatality rate (CFR) will keep declining. The number of those testing positive for the virus (denominator) will climb much faster than the number of deaths due to the coronavirus (numerator). As the denominator climbs faster than the number of deaths, the CFR will decline. My hunch: the US wuhan flu CFR will be less than 1%. Example: as of today, in the US, 80,000 cases, and 1,500 deaths (CFR = 1.875%). Assume the actual number who would test positive if "all" were tested were double (which is probably very likely), then 1,500 / 160,000 = a CFR of 0.9375%. Hospitalizations is probably the most important data point.

Wuhan flu: the president has given the Pentagon authority to activate retired military personnel. One would assume this is directed towards health professionals. Medical technicians and nurses would be in most demand; then physicians. 

The president would probably get more support from Elon Musk:
President Donald Trump announced Friday that his economic adviser, Peter Navarro, would serve as the coordinator of the Defense Production Act.
The president announced the news after issuing an order to General Motors to mobilize their resources to manufacture ventilators to help the fight the coronavirus.
Navarro praised Trump’s order for sending a strong message to the private sector that he meant business.
“We’re engaged in the most central mobilization since World War II,” Navarro said. “We have a wartime president fighting an invisible enemy.”
Navarro said that ventilators were essential for patients infected with the virus,
“All around this country, as this virus bears down, the ventilators are the most important thing for patients who become seriously ill. They are literally the lifeline for people,” he said.
Navarro said that nearly all of the private companies responded to requests from the federal government with patriotic speed, but he said the administration had run into “roadblocks” with General Motors.
“Hopefully, General Motors will join in the fray,” Trump said.

Oil production: it will be a hoot when Peter Navarro "invites" directs oil companies to produce oil at the same level as CY19. 

Tracking DUCs That Don't Report An IP in Bakken 4.0 -- March 27, 2020

Note: once wells report an IP, they will be removed from this page. 

Interim Updates

May 7, 2020: link here

The List

Tracking wells not reporting IPs now that we're in Bakken 4.0: This is all new to me. Prior to Bakken 4. 0 (prior to March, 2020) wells that came off the confidential list generally fell into one of two groups:
  • completed, and reporting an IP; or,
  • drilled to depth, but not completed (SI/NC, or DUCs)
A small number of wells went to DRL status and I generally lost them to follow-up, but they were so few in number it was not a concern (for me).  

Beginning in March, 2020 (Bakken 4.0), we started seeing new designations as noted below. There is no precedent for the NDIC to report the IPs of these wells when they are completed by the operator. Until we have a better idea of how this plays out, I will track wells with these "new" designations here.

These wells are reported on the daily activity list, and it would make sense to date them below, but it becomes more cluttered, and wouldn't mean a whole lot. They can be found by "searching" the blog which is easy to do.

Posted After May 3, 2020

Posted after May 3, 2020: there are just too many DUCs now reporting without an IP for me to break down by group. If I remember to post them, I will post them as a group:

October 15, 20200:

  • 35441, drl/A, Hess, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-9, Dollar Joe, t--; cum --;
  • 35903, SI/A,  Slawson, Orca Federal 1 SLH, Big Bend, t--; cum --;

October 6, 2020:

  • 36864, drl/A, WPX, Omaha Woman 24-13-12HD, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 36820, drl/A, WPX, Omaha Woman 24-13-12HC, Squaw Creek, no production data,

September 24, 2020:

  • 36725, drl/A, CLR, Bailey 13-13HSL1, Pershing,
  • 31967, SI/A, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen Trust 153-95-17D-7-3H, Charlson, no production data,

September 23, 2020:

  • 35261, drl/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 11-23H, Epping, t--; cum --; off line since 3/20;
  • 36721, drl/A, CLR, Vardon 12-14H1, Siverson, t--; cum --; off line since 3/20;
  • 36450, SI/A, WPX, Badger 22-21HIL, Squaw Valley, t--; cum 160K 7/20; a 41K month;
  • 36259, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HS, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 142K 7/20; a couple of 36K months;

September 22, 2020:

  • 35916, SI/A, WPX, Badger 22-21HY, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 110K in six months;
  • 35917, SI/A, WPX, Badger 22-21HA, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 128K in seven months;
  • 35262, drl/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 10-23H1, Epping, t--; cum --;
  • 35263, drl/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 9-23H, Epping, t--; cum --;
  • 35264, drl/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 8-23H1, Epping, t--; cum --;
  • 35265, drl/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 7-23H, Epping, t--; cum --;
  • 35266, drl/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 6-23H1, Epping, t--; cum --;
  • 36485, SI/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 3-23H1, Epping, t--; cum --;
  • 36487, SI/A, CLR, Sefolosha Federal 5-23H1, Epping, t--; cum --;
  • 36720, drl/A, CLR, Vardon 11-14H2, Siverston, t--; cum --;
  • 36722, drl/A, CLR, Vardon 11-14H, Siverston, t--; cum --;
  • 37192, drl/A, CLR, Wiley 13-25HSL2, Pershing, t--; cum --;

September 18, 2020:

  • 36476, drl/NC, XTO, Tong 34X-9G, Midway,
  • 36478, drl/A, CLR, Jack 8-4H, Murphy Creek,
  • 36577, drl/NC, XTO, Tong 34X-9C, Midway,
  • 36475, drl/A, CLR, Jack 7-4H1, Murphy Creek,
  • 36730, drl/A, CLR, Vardon 10-14H1, Siverston,
  • 36933, drl/A,  Petro Harvester Operating, WOB1 33-28 163-90 C,Woburn, a Madison well; t--; cum 48K 7/20;
  • 36932, drl/A,  Petro Harvester Operating, Wob1 04-09 162-90 C,Woburn, a Madison well; t--; cum 17K over two months;
  • 33800, SI/A, CR, Antelope Federal 14-23HSL, Elm Tree,
August 17, 2020:
  • 35636, SI/A, WPX, St Anthony 9-16HB, Mandaree, API: 33-025-03606, t--; cum 225K 6/20; a 47K month;
  • 36636, drl/A, WPX, Nighthawk 6-34HC, Mandaree, API: 33-025-03852, no production data;
June 23, 2020:
  • 31908, TA/A, Equinor, Sax 25-36 XE 1H, Banks,  t--; cum 170K 6/20; neighboring well, Sax #21792 with small jump in production, sustained;
  • 36664, SI/A, Petroshale, Jorgenson Federal 2MBH, Bear Den,  t--; cum 109K 6/20;
  • 36665, SI/A, Petroshale, Jorgenson Federal 3MBH, Bear Den, t--; cum 76K 6/20;
June 16, 2020:
  • 36617, SI/NC-->SI/A, MRO, Easton 44-20H, Murphy Creek, t--; cum 116K 6/20;
  • 36618, conf, Petroshale, Anderson South 2TFH, Croff, no production data,
  • 36197, SI/NC-->SI/A, MRO, Reagan 14-21H, Murphy Creek, t--; cum 114K 6/20;
  • 35035, SI/NC, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9D, Heart Butte, t--; cum 91K 6/20; off line 5/20; returns to production, 6/20;
June 9, 2020:
  • 36846, drl/A, MRO, Donaason USA 34-21TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 111K in three months; cum 158K 6/20; remained on line through 5/20 melt down;
  • 36845, drl/A, MRO, Aslak USA 44-21TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 101K in 3.5 months; cum 154K 6/20; remained on line through 5/20 meltdown;
June 8, 2020:
  • 36430, drl/A, MRO, Bintz USA 21-4TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 106K 4/20; a 39K month; cum 156K 6/20; remained on line through 5/20 meltdown;
  • 36431, drl/A, MRO, Erickson 31-4H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 132K 4/20; a 50K month; cum 165K 6/20; remained on line through 5/20 meltdown;
  • 36804, drl/A, MRO, Floyd USA 21-4H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 193K 6/20; 55K month;
  • 36844, drl/A, MRO, Akko USA 44-21H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 225K 6/20; a 60K month;
June 5, 2020:
  • 36678, drl/A, XTO, Mariner 14X-36D, Bear Creek, t--; 33K in 21 days, extrapolates to 46,521 bbls over 30 days; t--; cum 77K 6/20;
June 4, 2020:
  • 36133, SI/A, XTO, Arlys Federal 34X-31C, Siverston, t--; cum 60K over 30 days; 4K over days in 5/20 extrapolates to 40K over 30 days;
June 3, 2020:
  • 35915, SI/A, CLR, Wahpeton17-16H, Banks, t--; cum 107K in 2.5 months; see below;
  • 35842, SI/A, Equinor, Stallion 33-28 4TFH, Ragged Butte, t--; cum 56K 4/20
  • 36134, SI/A, XTO, Arlys 34X-31H, Siverston, t--; cum 44K 3/20; a 41K month; see below;
June 1, 2020:
  • 36858, SI/A, Slawson, Shakafox 7-28-21MLH, Big Bend, t--; cum --;
  • 36656, drl/A, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-93-9C-10-11H, Four Bears, t--; cum 18K over 10 days;
  • 36657, drl/A, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-93-9C-10-10H, Four Bears, t--; cum 26K over 17 days;
  • 36658, drl/A, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-93-9C-10-9H, Four Bears, t--; cum 24K over 23 days;
May 29, 2020:
  • 36858, SI/A, Slawson, Shakafox7-28-21MLH, Big Bend, t--; cum --;
  • 36656, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-13B, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
  • 36657, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-14T, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
  • 36658, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-15B, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
May 28, 2020:
  • 35603, SI/A, XTO, Cole 44X-32DXA, Siverston, t--; cum --;
  • 26802, SI/A, XTO, Cole 44X-32G, Siverston, t--; cum --;
  • 33024, drl/A, BR, Renegade 24-10 TFH, Sand Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 33022, SI/A, BR, Chuckwagon 21-15 TFH, Sand Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 36301, SI/A, BR, Renegade 34-15 TFH-R, Sand Creek, t--; cum --;
  • 33023, SI/A, BR, Renegade 24-10 MBH, Sand Creek, t--; cum --;
May 27, 2020:
  • 36961, drl/drl, WPX, Meadowlark 6-34HQL, Heart Butte, t--; cum --;
  • 36472, drl/drl, Slawson, Periscope Federal 4-10-7TFH, Big Bend, t--; cum --;
  • 36210, drl/drl, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25C, Heart Butte, t--; cum --;
  • 33841, drl/drl, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Tami 5-8-5-157N-99W TFH, Lone Tree Lake, t--; cum --;
May 26, 2020:
  • 35601, SI/A, XTO, Cole 44X-32F, Siverston, t--; cum 50K in 38 days; 39K extrapolates to 49K over 30 days;
  • 36963, drl/drl, WPX, Meadowlark 6-34HW, Heart Butte, t--; cum --;
  • 36654, drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-10B, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
  • 36655 drl/A, Bruin, FB Bonita 152-93-9B-10-12T, Four Bears, t--; cum --;
May 22, 2020:
  • 35033, SI/A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9C,Heart Butte, t--; cum 79K 3/20;
  • 30762, SI/A, Slawson, Hunter 3-8-17H, Big Bend, t--; cum 55K 3/20;
  • 36588, DRL/A, Rimrock Oil & Gas, Skunk Creek 8-2-3-4HA, South Fork, t--; cum 19K 3/20;
  • 36743, SI/A, Iron Oil, Ellsworth 5-31-30H, Ellsworth, t--; cum 90K 3/20;
  • 36587, DRL/A, Rimrock Oil & Gas, Skunk Creek 8-2-3-4H3U, Heart Butte, t--; cum 16K 3/20;
  • 36591, DRL/A, Rimrock Oil & Gas, Skunk Creek 8-2-3-5H3, South Fork, t--; cum --;
  • 35601, SI/NC, XTO,Cole 44X-32F, Siverston, t--; cum 50K 2/20;
May 21, 2020
  • 36704, SI/A, Iron Oil Operating, Antelope 2-35-26H, Antelope, t--; cum 52K over 2.5 months;
  • 36429, drl/A, MRO, Ardis USA 21-4TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum --;
  • 26803, SI/A, XTO, Cole 44X-32C, Siverston, t--; cum 98K over 58 days; 55K over 27 days extrapolates to 61,314 bbls over 30 days;
May 19, 2020:
  • 35143, SI/A, CLR, Durant 2-12HSL, East Fork, t--; cum --;
  • 36589, drl/A, Rimrock, Skunk Creek 8-2-3-4H3, t--; cum 14K over 31 days;
May 18, 2020:
  • 34829, drl/A, Hess, HA-Nelson A-LE-152-95-3427H-1, Hawkey, t--; cum 35K over 31 days; 17,034 bbls over 6 days extrapolates to 85,170 bbls over 30 days; see below;
  • 36505, drl/A, WPX, Blue Racer 14-11HZ, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 45K over 29 days; see below; see this post;
  • 35031, SI/A, XTO, FBIR Youngbear 31X-9BXC, Heart Butte,t--; cum 52K 3/20; see below;
  • 36590, drl/A, Rimrock, Skunk Creek 8-2-3-4H, South Fork, t--; cum 10K over 30 days;
May 13, 2020:
  • 32383, SI/A, CLR, Bohmbach Federal 9-26H1, Elm Tree, t--; cum --;
  • 33797, SI/A, CLR, Antelope Federal 13-23H1, Elm Tree, t--; cum --;
  • 32388, SI/A, CLR, Antelope Federal 12-34H, Elm Treek, t--; cum --;
  • 36949, conf, Whiting, Arndt 11-24XH, Sanish,

May 11, 2020:
  • 35989, SI/A, Equinor, Sam 30-31 6TFH, Bull Butte, t--; cum 36K over 3 months;
  • 34410, SI/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dorothy 19-18-158N-98W MBH, Rainbow, t--; cum 18K over 31 days;
  • 36436, SI/A, Crescent Point Energy, EPEUSC Claire Rsoe 30-31-159N-99W MBH, Burg, t--; cum 11K over 53 days;
  • 34412, SI/A, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Dorothy 4-19-18-158N-98W MBH, Rainbow, t--; cum 16K over 31 days;
  • 37078, conf, Whiting, Oddie 44-7HU, Sanish, t--; cum --;
  • 36504, drl/A, WPX,  Blue Racer 14-11HD, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 32K over 31 days; see this post;
May 7, 2020:
  • 36661, drl/A, MRO, Thoen 41-28H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 128K in less than 3 months;
  • 36662, drl/A, MRO, Doven 11-25TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 90K in less than 3 months;
  • 36789, SI/A, MRO, Oates 21-27H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 125K in less than 3 months;
May 6, 2020:
  • 24049, SI/A-->SI/IAW, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-4H, Charlson, t--; cum 18K over 3 days;
  • 35844, SI/A, Equinor, Stallion 33-28, 2TFH, Ragged Butte, t--; cum 65K over four months;
  • 36644, SI/A, Kraken, Redfield South 36-25 2H, Lone Tree Lake, t--; cum 77K in less than 3 months;
  • 35841, drl, Equinor, Stallion 33-28 XW 1H,, Ragged Butte, t--; cum --;
  • 24048, SI/A, Petro-Hunt, State 154-94-31C-32-5H, Charlson, t--; cum 4K over 6 days;
  • 35423, SI/NC, MRO, Doris USA 21-15TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 172K over three months; see this post;
  • 35421, drl, MRO, Beatrice USA 31-5TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 134K over three months; see this post;
  • 35422, SI/A, MRO, Esther USA 21-15H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 269K 8.5 months; see this post;
  • 36663, drl/A, MRO, Sura USA 44-21TFH, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 130K over 3 months;
May 4, 2020:
  • 35424, SI/A, MRO, Frances USA 11-15H, Reunion Bay, t--; cum 268K over seven months; see below; see this post; cum 252K over six months; cum 284K 8/20;
  • 34786, drl-->conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-4H, Eightmile, t--; cum 1K over 12 days; cum 35K over 3 months;
  • 35992, drl, Equinor, Sam 30-31 XE 1H, Bull Butte, t--; cum --;
  • 34787, drl-->conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-5H, Eightmile, t--; cum 1K over 7 days; 50K over three months;
  • 34788, drl-->conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-6H, Eightmile, t--; cum 48 bbls over 2 days; cum 60K three months;
  • 35843, SI/NC-->SI/A, Equinor, Stallion 33-28 3H, Ragged Butte, t--; cum 77K over 4.5 months; see below; cum 107K 6/20;
Posted Prior To May 3, 2020
***************************** 
DUCs Reporting F/NC

 The wells:
  • 35686, F/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1A MBH, North Fork, t--; cum --; see early production here; no production, 6/20;
  • 34382, F/NC, BR, Veeder 3C MBH, Blue Buttes, a monster well; see this update; t--; cum 70K over 30 days in 4/20; off line 5/20; remains off line 6/20;
  • 36286, F/NC, BR, Veeder 3E MBH, Blue Buttes, t--; cum 31K 4/20; off line 5/20; remains off line 6/20;
  • 35912, F/NC, CLR, Jamestown Federal 14-17HSL1, Banks,110K 5/20; off line 6/20;
  • 36287, F/NC, BR, Veeder 3D TFH, Blue Buttes, no production; Three Forks, second bench; 1,308 bbls over seven days;
  • 35690, F/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1E MBH, North Fork; see early production here; 53936 bbls over 13 days extrapolates to a staggering 124K bbls over 30 days;
  • 35688, F/NC, BR, Tailgunner 1C MBH, North Fork; see early production here; 53997 over 23 days extrapolates to 70K bbls over 30 days;
***************************
DUCs Reporting F/A 

The wells:
  • 35689, F/IA, BR, Tailgunner 1D TFH, North Fork, t--; cum 59K 5/20; see early production here; off line 6/20; a 43K month; back on line 7/20;
  • 33183, F/IA, BR, Franklin 44-36TFH, Little Knife, five days, 325 bbls; Three Forks, second bench; 25K month; t--; cum 72K 5/20; off line 6/20; a 28K month; off line 6/20; remains off line 7/20;
  • 35913 F/A -->conf-->F/A, CLR, Wahpeton 15-16HSL, Banks, 51K first full month; t--; cum 145K 8/20; off line 6/20; a 51K month;

***************************
DUCs Reporting drl or drl/A

The wells:
  • 35697, drl-->F/NC, Oasis, Joplin 5397 42-32 9B, Banks, t--; cum 109K 6/20; see this note; three 31K months;
  • 35439, F/drl, BR, GO-Elvin Garfield-156-97-1918H-7, Dollar Joe, t--; cum 20K over26 days;  
  • 36502, drl/A, WPX, Skunk Creek 1-12HW, South Fork, t--; cum 54K in 81 days; cum 161K 8/20; a 24K month;
  • 36261, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HA, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 21K in 40 days; see this post; cum 196K 8/20; a 52K month;
  • 36260, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HX, Squaw Creek, t--; cum 201K 8/20; see this post; a 59K month;
  • 36463, drl/A, WPX, Mandaree Warrior 14-11HUL, Mandaree, t--; cum 198K 8/20; see this post; a 55K month;
*****************************
Coming Off Confidential, Going To DRL

The wells:
  • 34163, drl-->drl/A-->drl/IA , Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Elena 5-22-15-157N-100W TFH, Marmon, t--; cum 6K over first 23 days (6/20);
  • 34600, drl-->drl/NC-->drl/A, MRO, Verne USA 24-21TFH, Reunion Bay, see this post; update here; t--; cum 180K 6/20; a 51K month (24 days) extrapolates to 64K over 30 days;
  • 36932, drl-->drl/drl, , Petro Harvester, WOB1 04-09 162-90 C, Woburn, t--; cum 1,728 bbls over three months; offline 4/20; remains off line 6/20;
  • 36503, drl,-->drl/A, WPX, Skunk Creek 1-12HA, South Fork; see this post; t--; cum 48K over 51 days; cum 122K 8/20; off line 3/20 - 5/20;
  • 36502-->drl/A, WPX, Skunk Creek 1-12HW, South Fork, t--; cum 54K over 81 days; cum 161K 8/20; a 24K month;
  • 36933, drl-->drl/drl-->drl/A, Petro Harvester Operating, WOB1 33-28 163-90 C, Woburn, t--; cum 53K 8/20;
  • 36726, drl-->drl/A, WPX, Skunk Creek 1-12HQL, South Fork, 10K over 23 days; FracFocus: 1/9/20 - 1/17/20; 4.5 million gallons of water; 84% water by mass; 0.0229 friction reducer, very low; t--; cum 105K 8/20; a 17K month;
  • 34601, drl-->drl/NC-->drl/A, MRO, Salveson USA 24-21H, Reunion Bay, update here; huge well; a 47K month and a 54K month; t--; cum 228K 8/20;
  • 28114, drl-->drl/NC, , Slawson, Sniper Federal 7-6-7TFH, Big Bend, Three Forks, 1st bench;
*****************************
Coming Off Confidential Going To SI/A

The wells
  • 35914, SI/IA-->SI/A, CLR, Wahpeton 16-16H1, Banks, t--; cum 117K 8/20; fracked 12/6/19 - 12/17/19; 7.1 million lbs; 88.42% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06511; see this note; a huge well; off line, 6/20; a 43K month;
  • 31520, SI/A, CLR, Steele Federal 5-24H1, Banks, t--; cum 18K over 15 days; fracked 12/14/19 - 12/23/19;8.2 million lbs; 87.8% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06636; cum 188K 8/20; a 30K month;
  • 31523, SI/A-->conf-->SI/A, CLR, Steele Federal 9-24H, Banks, t--; cum 15K over 14 days; fracked 12/2/19 - 12/13/19; 10.6 million gallons of water; 86.88% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06511; cum 174K 8/20; only 10 days, 6/20; only 1 day, 7/20;
  • 31522, SI/A, CLR, Steele Federal 8-24H1, Banks, t--; cum 17K over 13 days; fracked 12/1/19 - 12/13/19; 9 million gallons of water; 88.2% water by mass; friction reduction, 0.06982; cum 182K 8/20; a 38K month;
*****************************
Coming Off Confidential Going To A

The wells:
  • 36969, A-->F/IA, Slawson, Whirlwind 7-31TFH, Big Bend, t--; cum 2K over 6 days, then shut in; remains off line 6/20;
  • 36667, A-->F/IA, Slawson, Hunter 9-17-8H, Big Bend, t--; cum 9K over 13 days; remains off line 6/20;
  • 30177, A/F, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5 SLTFH, Big Bend, t--; cum 58K over 58 days; off line as of 3/20; remains off line 6/20; a 32K month;

One New Permit -- Liberty Resources -- Rig Count Goes Into Weekend At 45 -- March 27, 2020

Active rigs:

$21.513/27/202003/27/201903/27/201803/27/201703/27/2016
Active Rigs4566604932

One new permit, #37477:
  • Operator: Liberty Resources
  • Field: Northwest McGregor (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Liberty Resources has a new permit for a McGinnity well in NENE 6-160-95, Northwest McGregor oil field
Six producing wells (DUCs) completed:
  • 34382, F/NC, BR, Veeder 3C MBH, Blue Buttes, 1 day of production, 206 bbls;
  • 36286, F/NC, BR, Veeder 3E MBH, Blue Buttes, no production;
  • 35912, F/NC, CLR, Jamestown Federal 14-17HSL1, Banks, one of production, 301 bbls;
  • 36287 F/NC, BR, Veeder 3D TFH, Blue Buttes, no production;
  • 33183 F/A, BR, Franklin 44-36TFH, Little Knife, five days, 325 bbls;
  • 35913 F/A, BR, Wahpeton 15-16HSL, Banks, six days of production, 357 bbls;

Off The Net For Awhile -- Overwhelmed With Breaking News -- March 27, 2020

I'm sure everyone is following the breaking news, but something tells me we've just entered a new stage in the war on coronavirus.

This is quite incredible.

Love him, hate him, whatever, his timing remains impeccable. And he is even out-staging Ronald Reagan when it comes to stage-crafting. Brilliant.

I was unable to find Joe Biden's podcast after 30 seconds of looking. That tells me all I need to know about his presence.

Anyway, whatever, I'm off the net for awhile. I'm hoping to stay off the net until tomorrow morning so I can get caught up but you know me -- it's hard to stay away from the keyboard.

Good luck to all. 

So Many Story Lines -- March 27, 2020



Memo to Saudi Arabia and Russia: the Defense Production Act also allows the president to mandate that US oil companies continue to produce oil at same level as previously planned -- as stated in their 4Q19 quarterly reports. Get out the popcorn.

Off The Net -- March 27, 2020

After scouring the internet this morning -- reading only the "stuff" that fits my worldview / myth -- LOL -- these are my takeaways:
  • Wuhan flu will be with us through mid-November; then it will mysteriously and abruptly go away
  • the CDC is still unable to produce monthly, much less weekly, much less daily updates regarding SEAFLU cases, hospitalizations and deaths
  • the ventilator issue does not add up; not even close
  • Trump is still on top of his game
  • $2 trillion bailout/stimulus/New Green Deal and we were concerned about a few hundred billion for global warming?  Wow.
  • economic truths:
    • the poorest of the poor will not be affected by economic impact of Wuhan flu
    • the one-percenters will not be affected by the economic impact of Wuhan flu
    • the income / wealth gap will widen significantly when this is all over
    • the investor class is going to come out of this looking very, very good -- time frame -- three years
    • best thing so far: IRS filing deadline delayed for 90 days; a case can be made to move this deadline to July 15 permanently
    • that $2 trillion bailout/stimulus/New Green deal -- maybe $500 billion will have impact this year -- but that's still huge
    • the investor class is going to come out of this looking very, very good -- time frame -- three years -- oh, did I already say that?
    • many of the lower middle class / "middle" middle class will never recover from the CDC tail wagging the economy dog
    • free market capitalism will come out of the current situation much faster than countries without 
  • Tom Hanks and wife are forever immune against Wuhan flu; wow, that was fast
  • Russia is in deep doo-doo
  • House of Saud is in really deep doo-doo
  • Professor Biden: koan expert
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

***************************************
First Solo Bike Ride

A little over a week ago, I set a goal to teach Sophia how to ride her bike by the end of this week, March 28, 2020.

Yesterday, it appeared we were not going to quite make it but I thought we would make it next week, but not entirely sure.

Today, Friday, March 28, 2020, Sophia took her first solo bike ride and now rides very, very well.


A hat trick, a trifecta! I taught all three granddaughters to ride a bike. Arianna was perhaps the most difficult. She learned when the family lived in Summerville, SC. I do not remember the specifics with Olivia, but I do remember that she learned in Belmont, MA, a suburb of Boston. Specifically she learned in Beaver Creek park. Beaver Creek park may, perhaps, be the best park the granddaughters ever experienced.

And today, Sophia learned to ride in W. T. Parr park in Grapevine, TX.

Over At Twitter -- Friday -- March 27, 2020

The link to the Bloomberg article on Canadian crude.




Super-Size It! Head Fake, Buying Time -- Or Really, Really Nervous -- Regardless, Too Little, Too Late -- March 27, 2020

Link here.

The linked article includes some interesting data points regarding Wuhan flu coming out of Russia.


Freedom Energy -- March 27, 2020

In the April NDIC hearing dockets:
  • 28449, Freedom Energy Resources LLC, exception; Lodgepole well, Stark County, section 17/20-139-96;
  • 28450, Freedom Energy Operating LLC, establish an approx 960-acre unit, S/2-12 and N/2, N/2-13-129-104 and W/2-18-129-103, Red River formation, Bowman County;
According to NDIC "well search" there is only "Freedom Energy Operating LLC. 

The Bakken operators are tracked here.


Friday -- Looking Forward To The Weekend -- March 27, 2020


KEXP, Seattle:

Carin at the Liquor Store, The National

An "Overlapping 640"? -- March 27, 2020

Updates

April 27, 2020: wow, I'm an idiot. I completely mis-read this. Yes, it now makes sense. For the life of me, I can't figure out how I mis-read this. I must be suffering from Bidenitis.

Original Post 

We'll come back to this one later. I can't figure it out.




Section 8-149-93: according to the NDIC map, this section is already approved for 640-acre spacing. Why an "overlapping" unit for this section is required makes no sense to me. There are two producing wells in that section and both are on 320-acre spacing. But the change, an overlapping 640-acre unit would not affect either of these wells. Regardless of what happens in the future these wells are already permitted for 320-acre spacing and can't be changed. Obviously I am missing something or do not understand the concept of "overlapping." See comments.

Clearing Off The Desktop -- March 27, 2020



The Lego Page -- March 27, 2020

Bang for the buck, this might just be one of the best LEGO sets ever. It's retired, but interestingly enough, it's still available on Amazon.



Amazon: still the best. 

Alexa: you're amazing. Even when you misunderstand me, your song selections are incredible.


You Say COVID-19; I Say Wuhan Flu -- March 27, 2020

It's not the "Chinese virus"? Well, butter my buns and stick me in the oven! LOL.


******************************
Geico Rock Award

New nominee, and there's never been a political leader this "high up" to be nominated. Wow.


The nominees for the 2020 Geico Rock Award are tracked here.

Mmm, Mmm, Crash Test Dummies

Right Across The Street From Us; Big Day For Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- March 27, 2020

Gas Buddy, Grapevine, TX. Link here. This is the brand new service station that just opened up this past year. It's literally right across the street from us:


************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$22.463/27/202003/27/201903/27/201803/27/201703/27/2016
Active Rigs4666604932

Wells coming off the confidential list today --Friday, March 27, 2020: 72 for the month; 243 for the quarter, 243 for the year:
  • 36726, drl, WPX, Skunk Creek 1-12HQL, South Fork, 10K over 23 days; FracFocus: 1/9/20 - 1/17/20; 4.5 million gallons of water; 84% water by mass; 0.0229 friction reducer, very low;
  • 36546, 1,227, Whiting, Hauge 44-36HU, 37 stages; 9 million lbs; Sanish, t10/19; cum 84K 1/20; a 25K month;
  • 35479, 205, Nine Point Energy, Nordtug 155-102-23-14-2H, 60 stages; 10.2 million lbs, 100 mesh, and Super LC 30/50; Squires, t10/19; cum 83K 1/20; a 25K month;
  • 35478, 595, Nine Point Energy, Nordtug 155-102-23-14-3H, 60 stages; 8.3 million lbs; Squires, t10/19; cum 101K 1/20; a 30K month;
  • 35052, 2,376, Whiting, Lassey 21-22-2H, 39 stages; 6.1 million lbs; Slickwater and sand; Glass Bluff, t10/19; cum 78K 1/20; 20K month; 
  • 34601, drl, MRO, Salveson USA 24-21H, Reunion Bay,
  • 28114, drl, Slawson, Sniper Federal 7-6-7TFH, Big Bend,
RBN Energy: #5 in the series -- Paradigm Midstream's Bakken crude oil gathering systems. Archived.

Daily Note, Early Morning Edition -- March 27, 2020

Breaking news: Boris says he has tested positive for Wuhan flu. 

*****************************
Global Warming Wrap-up

Cold:


Lake Mead, link here:



***************************
EVs

Inside EVs.
Tesla slashes 75% of workforce at US gigafactory; Panasonic temporarily suspends work at the gigafactory (until April 14, 2020)


************************************
SEAFLU

Link here

Not that anyone cares or is even following it.

Perhaps one of the worse, if not the worst, year for pediatric deaths due to "seasonal flu" -- you know the one -- the one that is not "novel" or called something scary like COVID-19.

CDC unable to provide exact numbers like it does with COVID-19; only provides broad estimates; annual flu cases are estimated, and "rounded off" in millions. In other words, we don't know if there have been 38 million cases in the US this year or 37 million cases.
We are well into this season; the season should be wrapping up, but here it is, from the CDC: the overall cumulative hospitalization rate for the season increased to 65.1 per 100,000. It had been running 57 to 59 per 100,000.
We are well into this season; the season should be wrapping up, but here it is, from the CDC:
the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza is 7.1%, below the epidemic threshold of 7.3%. 
Ventilators: think of the number of ventilators required for pneumonia/influenza hospitalizations at a rate of 65.1/100,000 -- seasonal flu and compare that to COVID-19 hospitalizations so far in the US -- 8,000 hospitalizations or 2.4/100,000. The numbers that Governor Cuomo says needed for NYC don't add up.
  • COVID-19 hospitalizations, US, cumulative: 8,000
  • SEAFLU hospitalizations, US, cumulative: 214,830 
  • We are well into this season; the season should be wrapping up, but here it is, from the CDC: five more pediatric deaths due to SEAFLU reported this past week, bringing the total for the season to 149, one of the worse, if not the wrose record in modern history 
 ******************************
Italy 

Another attempt to explain Italy's experience with Wuhan flu. Over at aljazeera. Virginia Pietromarchi does provide another interesting data point.

*************************
Great Britain

Forecast of British deaths due to Wuhan flu have been revised ... downward ... and revised significantly downward. Link here.